The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 2

[Mr. Morden]

Sherrod Brown's participation at the CAP Ideas Conference prompts the obvious question about whether he has presidential ambitions.  Here's his response:

https://www.daytondailynews.com/news/national-govt--politics/brown-appearance-forum-begs-question-running-for-president/8kNBLZZHzENgG1ZQzspYJJ/
http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180516/sherrod-brown-says-he-has-no-interest-in-2020-presidential-bid

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[Former Senator Haslam2020]

Sherrod Brown's participation at the CAP Ideas Conference prompts the obvious question about whether he has presidential ambitions.  Here's his response:

https://www.daytondailynews.com/news/national-govt--politics/brown-appearance-forum-begs-question-running-for-president/8kNBLZZHzENgG1ZQzspYJJ/
http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180516/sherrod-brown-says-he-has-no-interest-in-2020-presidential-bid

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FF

[NevadanAtHeart]

Sherrod Brown's participation at the CAP Ideas Conference prompts the obvious question about whether he has presidential ambitions.  Here's his response:

https://www.daytondailynews.com/news/national-govt--politics/brown-appearance-forum-begs-question-running-for-president/8kNBLZZHzENgG1ZQzspYJJ/
http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180516/sherrod-brown-says-he-has-no-interest-in-2020-presidential-bid

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Please run Sherrod

[Blair]

The irony is that a lot of awful politicians aka Castro, need to keep up this media circus because once they rule it out categorically they're lost a lot of media interest. Whereas people like Brown who already have a profile/platform don't need to keep milking it

[Mr. Morden]

Politico notes that Garcetti is taking a novel approach with his 2020 prep work: Holding fundraisers within LA (attended by some of his Hollywood friends) for Dem. state parties in other states, especially early primary states:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/17/garcetti-hollywood-2020-electiion-595099

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[Karpatsky]

Sherrod Brown's participation at the CAP Ideas Conference prompts the obvious question about whether he has presidential ambitions.  Here's his response:

https://www.daytondailynews.com/news/national-govt--politics/brown-appearance-forum-begs-question-running-for-president/8kNBLZZHzENgG1ZQzspYJJ/
http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180516/sherrod-brown-says-he-has-no-interest-in-2020-presidential-bid

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Please run Sherrod

I honestly can't blame him for not wanting it considering the stresses of the modern presidency, but the country on the whole could really use him, and I think he has a very good shot at both primary and general.

[Mr. Morden]

Here's a story on all the prospective 2020 candidates visiting NH:

http://www.wmur.com/article/nh-primary-source-past-prospective-presidential-candidates-headed-to-nh/20724789

I think all those trips have already been mentioned in this thread, except possibly the one by Merkley.  Apparently he'll be in NH on Sunday.

[mitchellyeager]

alright I will bet 10$ PayPal that this happens

trump and pence get the republican nomination again
Joe Biden and kristen gillibrand win the democrats nomination
on losing the nomination Bernie sanders starts his own third party ticket and just barely garners enough support to be in the debates , chooses tulsi Hubbard or Elizabeth warren as his vp pick
John kaisch reconsiders unity ticket with John hickenlooper

[RogueBeaver]

Warren speaking to NV Dems next month.

[Mr. Morden]

Chris Murphy has hired Jenna Lowenstein, who was the digital director for Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign:

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2018/05/18/house-immigration-votes-discharge-petition-271094

[Progressive Pessimist]

Sherrod Brown's participation at the CAP Ideas Conference prompts the obvious question about whether he has presidential ambitions.  Here's his response:

https://www.daytondailynews.com/news/national-govt--politics/brown-appearance-forum-begs-question-running-for-president/8kNBLZZHzENgG1ZQzspYJJ/
http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180516/sherrod-brown-says-he-has-no-interest-in-2020-presidential-bid

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Please run Sherrod

I honestly can't blame him for not wanting it considering the stresses of the modern presidency, but the country on the whole could really use him, and I think he has a very good shot at both primary and general.

I can't blame him either. I actually don't know why anyone would want to be President! It's not nearly as glamorous as it seems. Just ask Trump, he is obviously in over his head.

[Mr. Morden]

For what it's worth, based on Brown's comments from last year, it sounds like he's very much open to running for VP.  I mean, it sounded like he was on board with running as Clinton's running mate in 2016, and so I'm guessing he'd be up for VP in 2020 too.

And I still wouldn't rule out the possibility that he has presidential ambition too, but is hiding it until he gets through reelection in November.  But there isn't much evidence to support that at the moment.

[America Needs R'hllor]

For what it's worth, based on Brown's comments from last year, it sounds like he's very much open to running for VP.  I mean, it sounded like he was on board with running as Clinton's running mate in 2016, and so I'm guessing he'd be up for VP in 2020 too.

And I still wouldn't rule out the possibility that he has presidential ambition too, but is hiding it until he gets through reelection in November.  But there isn't much evidence to support that at the moment.

I agree, and I think that after the 2018 midterms we would be able to assess that better. If Cordray wins, the chances of VP Brown or maybe President Brown go substantially up.

[President Johnson]

For what it's worth, based on Brown's comments from last year, it sounds like he's very much open to running for VP.  I mean, it sounded like he was on board with running as Clinton's running mate in 2016, and so I'm guessing he'd be up for VP in 2020 too.

And I still wouldn't rule out the possibility that he has presidential ambition too, but is hiding it until he gets through reelection in November.  But there isn't much evidence to support that at the moment.

I agree, and I think that after the 2018 midterms we would be able to assess that better. If Cordray wins, the chances of VP Brown or maybe President Brown go substantially up.

Honestly, he'd be the right kind of VP for someone like Kamala Harris. Essentially that would be some new version of a balanced Obama/Biden ticket.

[Mr. Morden]

Julian Castro's book is coming out in October:

https://www.expressnews.com/news/news_columnists/gilbert_garcia/article/New-study-boosts-local-campaign-for-paid-sick-12926955.php

[henster]

Brown will not run if DeWine wins its as simple as that.

[pbrower2a]

Sasse is amping up his criticism of Trump, particularly on guns and trade:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/02/politics/ben-sasse-donald-trump-criticism-republican-party/index.html

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And then on guns:

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Free trade and support for law-and-order? On those I am a conservative.

I have seen much evidence of rural America turning against Donald Trump. It is fiscally conservative (and usually Republican-leaning) because rural America does not need the expensive infrastructure and because the public sector isn't as costly. The big spending is in the cities, where a four-lane freeway is wholly inadequate for commuter traffic in so urban an area as northeastern New Jersey. Small-town teachers and cops don't get paid well because they have few viable options; a school-teacher has the skill set to do many other things in a big city, and cops have to be paid well enough that they don't have to take bribes to make sure that their kids have stylish clothing.

Keep commodity prices high and inputs (like fuel and interest) and taxes cheap, and you will have happy farmers. The high interest rates of the 1970s caused huge swings in the politics of rural America, as did the escalation of fuel prices.

Rural America is not a land of simpletons. Rural Americans want solid education for their kids, and it may surprise many that rural public schools in reasonably-prosperous districts often get good results -- about as good as some upper-middle suburbs. The kids who aspire to be veterinarians might prefer having horses as part of their veterinary repertory to 'only' cats and dogs as might be common in the suburbs... Kids are more likely to be brought up in a civic-minded world of Scouting, 4-H, and FFA, options generally not so suited to urban or suburban America. Rural kids get much the same media offerings as urban kids, at least through the Internet and cable or satellite TV.

I've seen polling data that indicate that President Trump is in trouble in rural America. He is as much of an urban pol as was Obama -- but Obama would have never made Trump's mistakes with rural America. Sure, they are both city-slickers, but Trump has shown himself far more obnoxious a city-slicker. Trump has been the best friend of those who want high energy prices (machinery fuel and transportation costs hit farmers hard), and he has supported a trade war that has led to retaliation.

Is it possible to be on the Right side of the political spectrum and hurt farmers? Sure. Trump shows that.

Rural America has had its liberal pols before -- like the late George McGovern, and like Bob Kerrey. It salivated over the "Cross of Gold" speech of William Jennings Bryant.   Donald Trump is a right-winger, but he is no conservative.       

[Progressive Pessimist]

Brown will not run if DeWine wins its as simple as that.

As much as I would like to see him run, it's smart thinking on his part to stay planted in the Senate should DeWine be victorious. That's assuming he wins again this year, of course, which he probably will. If Cordray wins though, I'm not sure what he'll do. He could also become a very favorable running mate choice for nearly any candidate at that point if he doesn't win the primary or run at all.

[Mr. Morden]

Inslee headed to Iowa:

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/fueling-2020-speculation-jay-inslee-to-headline-democratic-party-event-next-month-in-iowa/

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[Mr. Morden]

Nina Turner asked if she'll run for president:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/21/bernie-sanders-democrats-2018-599331

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[NewYorkExpress]

Nina Turner asked if she'll run for president:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/21/bernie-sanders-democrats-2018-599331

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That could just refer to who Our Revolution will endorse. If Sanders doesn't run, I expect that'll either be Warren, Gabbard or (Sherrod) Brown.

[Mr. Morden]

Charlie Baker spokesman asked about 2020:

link

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[NevadanAtHeart]

Charlie Baker spokesman asked about 2020:

link

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Honestly, I don't get Atlas's obsession with the word "focused". I understand that it's a word commonly used in clear non-denials, but it's also not always indicative of a non-denial. "Absolutely not" seems like a pretty telling indicator -- at least much more so than Atlas's favorite buzzword -- and imo it's almost disingenuous to point out the use of the F word as something that's suddenly important.

[Mr. Morden]

Charlie Baker spokesman asked about 2020:

link

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Honestly, I don't get Atlas's obsession with the word "focused". I understand that it's a word commonly used in clear non-denials, but it's also not always indicative of a non-denial. "Absolutely not" seems like a pretty telling indicator -- at least much more so than Atlas's favorite buzzword -- and imo it's almost disingenuous to point out the use of the F word as something that's suddenly important.

I do think this is most likely a sincere denial.  I just think it's funny how nearly every denial includes "focused", especially the obviously fake ones.

[President Johnson]

Charlie Baker spokesman asked about 2020:

link

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Honestly, I don't get Atlas's obsession with the word "focused". I understand that it's a word commonly used in clear non-denials, but it's also not always indicative of a non-denial. "Absolutely not" seems like a pretty telling indicator -- at least much more so than Atlas's favorite buzzword -- and imo it's almost disingenuous to point out the use of the F word as something that's suddenly important.

I do think this is most likely a sincere denial.  I just think it's funny how nearly every denial includes "focused", especially the obviously fake ones.

He would go nowhere in the Republican primary (even without an incumbent), but be a formidable general election contender.