Japan Oct 22 2017

[jaichind]

堺市(Sakai) mayor race final result

LDP-DP-SDP-PJK-JCP backed incumbent 竹山 (Takeyama)     53.8%
JRP backed 永藤 (Eiji)                                                        46.2%

It is just amazing how JRP can come so close against an incumbent that was backed by LDP-DP-SDP-PJK-JCP with nominal KP support. Shows how strong JRP are at the local level in Osaka.

[jaichind]

So it seems that PJK will merge into HP when it is formed.  Not sure it is such a good idea for HP as it will give it a hard right image when its main chance should be to take votes from DP to grow.  Could be HP figure that turmoil in DP will produce a shift anyway from DP to HP so HP should focus on trying add some Hawk Right vote from LDP to add to the HP kitty. 

[jaichind]

Abe Calls Snap Election in Japan, Readies $18 Billion Package.  Will be for 10/22

[jaichind]

It seems that Koike will lead the new party Party of Hope or PH.   It seems she is going to try to gamble on a credible result in 2017 versus waiting for her political novelty value declines.  Of course she is taking a big risk.  If her party bombs then she could be saying goodbye to a relevant role in national politics for a long time if ever.

[jaichind]

It seems that fonder of the defunct YP, 渡辺 喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) who was with JRP for a while seems will also join the new HP led by Koike.  So Koike will have 2 former party leaders under her wing, both 渡辺 喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) of YP  and 中山 恭子(Nakayama Kyōko) of PJK.

[Lord Halifax]

Could you provide us with a list of the parties running?

[jaichind]

It seems Abe's official reason for the election is also about the consumption tax.

Back in 2012 given the dire fiscal situation, the DPJ and LDP made a deal to have a planned increase in the consumption tax and in return DPJ agreed to early elections in 2012.  This broke the DPJ which splintered will the JRP and YP surge help LDP-KP to a landslide victory in 2012.

In 2014 Abe dissolved the lower house to delay the consumption tax increase and won in another landslide.  Right before the 2016  Upper House elections, Abe made the decision to delay the consumption tax again vowing that he will never delay it again.  This helped in part to a credible victory by the LDP in the 2016 Upper House elections.

Now, true to his word, Abe did not dissolve the Lower House to delay the consumption tax.  Abe wants the dissolve the Lower House on the platform of using the increased revenue from the consumption tax increase for spending for child care instead of lowering the deficit. 

All polls seems to show a large majority not approving Abe's decision to call for elections  but that was true in 2014 as well and did not stop Abe from winning in a landslide in 2014.

[jaichind]

Abe approve curve.  Well above water but not super great

[Famous Mortimer]

I assumed the faction that broke away from the Democrats to join Koike did so because their own party was too right wing. But now that PJK is joining, that doesn't make sense.

Unless maybe they are united by something else, anti-Americanism maybe? What dos Koike think about America? Do you think she will campaign for a withdrawal of troops?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Wait why would you think that? Koike is surely to the right of DP, even with Maehara being on the right of the party.

[jaichind]

I assumed the faction that broke away from the Democrats to join Koike did so because their own party was too right wing. But now that PJK is joining, that doesn't make sense.

Unless maybe they are united by something else, anti-Americanism maybe? What dos Koike think about America? Do you think she will campaign for a withdrawal of troops?

Japanese politics does not work that way.  Ideology is nothing.  Leadership charisma and relationships is  everything.  All politics revolves around key leaders. 

[jaichind]

Could you provide us with a list of the parties running?

LDP - Center-right long-time ruling party.  Strong in local politics and in rural areas but with a significant presence across the board.  Clientelist party.  Very wide spectrum of opinion

DP - Center-left opposition party.  Very wide spectrum of opinion.

KP - Based on lay Buddhist order Soka Gakkai.  Appeals to lower middle class and working class.  Centrist and even center-left on most politics.  Ally of LDP or whoever is the most powerful power which is LDP most of the time.

JCP - Social Democratic party with Communist roots.  Pretty moderate these days.

SDP - Old Socialist Party and an old shell of itself.

LP - Ozawa party.  Pretty center-left these days despite Ozawa's Rightist roots in LDP and mostly reduced to a Iwate regional party.

JRP - Hashimoto Party. Mostly an Osaka regional party and pretty hard right.

HP - New Koike party.  Fairly far right on most policies.  Very strong in Tokyo.

HRP - Fringe Far Right party based on Happy Science which is pretty much a cult.

NPB - A protest party and adversities itself for those what want to vote for "None of the Above"

[jaichind]

Koike taking the risk to leading HP is a gamble for sure but is really bad news for DP.  All the media coverage will be about Abe vs Koike.  When people ask about DP it will be "D who?"  I think DP might be facing a situation where its vote share will fall to 15% or even lower.  I not even sure there is much room for a JCP surge.

[jaichind]

Out of 289 district seats DP has candidates for 210 seats and plans on 233.  JCP has candidates for 260. It seems JCP is willing to withdraw candidates in some 50 or so  LDP-DP marginal seats in return for DP withdrawing their candidates in seats which JCP are very strong.  If they cannot come to such a deal I think LDP itself will get over 300 seats.

[jaichind]

One of my earlier posts on how the Japan Lower House PR section works.  It is now 176 PR seats

北海道 (Hokkaido)                               8
東北(Tohoku)                                     13
北関東 (Kitakanto or North Kanto)       19
南関東 (Minamikanto or South Kanto)  22
東京 (Tokyo)                                     17
北陸信越 (Hokurikushinetsu)               11
東海 (Tokai)                                      21
近畿 (Kinki)                                      28
中国(Chugoku)                                  11
四国 (Shikoku)                                    6
九州 (Kyūshū)                                   20

I like to write up how the Japan PR system works which I think is quite unique in the world. 

Japan has 180 PR seats which are split over 11 regions  (namely 北海道 (Hokkaido), 東北(Tohoku). 北関東 (Kitakanto or North Kanto), 南関東 (Minamikanto or South Kanto), 東京 (Tokyo), 北陸信越 (Hokurikushinetsu), 東海 (Tokai), 近畿 (Kinki), 中国(Chugoku), 四国 (Shikoku), and 九州 (Kyūshū))

Other than Tokyo each one of these regions has several prefectures which in turn has several FPTP districts.  Each voter gets to vote for a party on a PR list which gets aggregated at the regional level.  Then it gets allocated on PR basis.  Given the fact that the number of seats each region is different the cutoff to get seats might vary by region.

One feature of the Japanese election system is that a candidate ran run on BOTH in a FPTP seat AND on the PR list.   The idea is if such a candidate loses his or her FPTP seat he or she can still get elected on the PR list as long as the ranking they hold is high enough relative to the votes his or her party got in that region.  In fact the way this works can be fairly complicated as the party list for PR can have ties in it if the candidates involved are running also in a FPTP seats. 

The traditional PR list would be the following

Party X list
1. Candidate 1
2. Candidate 2
.
.
Y. Candidate Y

And if Party X gets N amount of the vote then we go down the list and everyone above what N% would qualify would be elected. 

The Japanese PR list allows for the following

Party X
1. Candidate 1 - pure PR list candidate
2. Candidate 2 - pure PR list candidate
3. Candidate 3 - also running in FPTP district a
3. Candidate 4 - also running in FPTP district b
3. Candidate 5 - also running in FPTP district c
4. Candidate 6 - pure PR list candidate
5. Candidate 7 - pure PR list candidate

So what happens is candidates 3 4 5 have equal ranking on the list.  If any of them win their FPTP seat then they are elected and taken out of the PR list.  If more than one of 3 4 or 5 lose their FPTP seat then their relative ranking are determined by their vote share they receive as a percentage of the winning candidate vote share.  What this system does is to encourage a candidate to be willing to run for Party X in a district where party X is weak and have low chance of winning.  The candidate can still win a seat as long as he and she is high up enough on the list and does well enough in the election with their vote share to put them higher up in the order to other losers in the same tier of the PR list.

[jaichind]

HP from the top leadership and down are mostly filled with party hoppers

小池百合子(Koike Yuriko)：JNP→NFP→LP→CP→LDP→TPFA→HP
渡辺喜美(Yoshimi Watanabe)：LDP→YP→ORA→JRP→HP
細野豪志(Hosono Gōshi)：DPJ→DP→HP
松原仁(Matsubara Jin)：LL→LDP→JRP→NFP→LP→GGP→DPJ→DP→HP
松沢成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi): JRP→NFP→VP→GGP→DPJ→YP→PFG→HP
柿沢未途(Kakizawa Mito)：DPJ→YP→UP→JIP→DP→HP
中山恭子(Nakayama Kyōko)：LDP→SPJ→SP→JRP→FPG→PJK→HP
中山成彬(Nakayama Nariaki)：LDP→SPJ→JRP→FPG→PJK→HP
木内孝胤(Kiuchi Takatane)：DPJ→PLF→TPJ→PLP→JIP→DP→HP
長島昭久(Nagashima Akihisa)：DPJ→DP→HP
後藤祐一(Gotō Yūichi)：DPJ→DP→HP
笠浩史(Ryu Hirofumi)：DPJ→DP→HP
福田峰之(Fukuda Mineyuki)：LDP→HP
鈴木義弘(Suzuki Yoshihiro)：LDP→JRP→JIP→VOR→DP→HP
若狭勝 (Wakasa Masaru)：LDP→JFP→HP
行田邦子(Koda Kuniko)：DPJ→GW→YP→HP

[jaichind]

松原仁(Matsubara Jin) who just led the DP campaign in the Tokyo Prefecture elections against the Koike led TPFA also defected to HP.  It seems the entire Tokyo DP leadership is going over to HP.  A re-run of what took place in Osaka in 2012 with a good chunk of the DPJ branch of Osaka going over to Hashimoto's JRP.

[jaichind]

Political science Professor 岩井奉信 (Iwai Iensan) came out with the following projection

LDP   260-280
KP      30-33
JRP     10-15
HP      30-50
DP      60-70
SDP      2
LP         2
JCP     20-25

Which means the medium case has LDP-KP at around 302 and barely misses 2/3 majority. 

Frankly I think JRP at 10-15 is too low.  I did some simulations and unless JRP PR vote falls to something like 5% (versus something like 7%)and/or JRP falls apart in Osaka JRP should get around 11-12 PR seats and with JRP most likely winning around 5 Osaka FPTP seats out of 19 if not more JRP should be at least 15 if not 20 seats.

The rest seems plausible.

[jaichind]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Policy-Politics/Opposition-Democrats-seek-merger-with-Tokyo-gov-s-party

Opposition Democrats seek merger with Tokyo gov's party.  he leader of the Democratic Party met with Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike Tuesday night to discuss a possible merger with her new national party, aiming to assemble a political force that can take on the dominant ruling party.

Wow.

There are also rumors that Ozawa will work to merge his LP either with DP or HP.   Ozawa and Koike go way back and Ozawa will be a pro-Koike force no matter what party he is in.

[Lord Halifax]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Policy-Politics/Opposition-Democrats-seek-merger-with-Tokyo-gov-s-party

Opposition Democrats seek merger with Tokyo gov's party.  he leader of the Democratic Party met with Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike Tuesday night to discuss a possible merger with her new national party, aiming to assemble a political force that can take on the dominant ruling party.

Wow.

There are also rumors that Ozawa will work to merge his LP either with DP or HP.   Ozawa and Koike go way back and Ozawa will be a pro-Koike force no matter what party he is in.

Would KP still remain loyal to LDP in that situation?

[jaichind]

There seems to be some talks between HP and JRP about possible alliances in certain seats.  Looks like Koike is going all out to get Abe this election.

[jaichind]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Policy-Politics/Opposition-Democrats-seek-merger-with-Tokyo-gov-s-party

Opposition Democrats seek merger with Tokyo gov's party.  he leader of the Democratic Party met with Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike Tuesday night to discuss a possible merger with her new national party, aiming to assemble a political force that can take on the dominant ruling party.

Wow.

There are also rumors that Ozawa will work to merge his LP either with DP or HP.   Ozawa and Koike go way back and Ozawa will be a pro-Koike force no matter what party he is in.

Would KP still remain loyal to LDP in that situation?

Yes.  KP pretty much is going with LDP this election cycle.  This is not certain at all next general election.  In fact the risk is the other way.  If the general election sharpens conflict between HP and KP in Tokyo there might be a break in the TPFA-KP alliance in the Tokyo Prefecture leaving Koike without a majority and needing DP and JCP to prop her up.

[jaichind]

It is said that the "Dark Lord" behind the scenes working for Koike is no other than former LDP PM Koizumi.  Koizumi junior is a rising superstar in the LDP so it seems the Koizumi clan plans to comeback to power is for Koizumi junior to work the LDP angle while Koizumi senior works out various anti-Abe forces inside and outside of the LDP.

Koizumi junior who is 36 is one of the LDP rising superstars that might become PM in 20 years or so.  The rule in LDP politics is that if you want to be PM it is best to come from a prominent and powerful political family but have your father die early.  Reason is an unwritten rule in Japanese hereditary policies is that only one member of a political family can be in politics at one time.  Sort of similar to the old English rule about only one unmarried daughter in a string of sisters can be out in society at one time.  So if your father is a MP and hold on to that position until he is in his 70s, by the time he passes away and you get in, by the time you have enough tenure as a MP it is too late for you to fight for the top job.  Unless your father dies early and you become a MP in your early 30s.  Abe and Ozawa both had this "luxury" of being a MP early in their life.   Koizumi senior was the same.  Difference here is Koizumi senior retired as PM and politics at age 63 which is fairly early and with his "political death" his son Koizumi junior was able to enter politics and become a MP at age 28.  So by the time Koizumi is in his 50s he would have the tenure and energy to fight for the top job.

[jaichind]

If there ends up being a DP-HP merger or alliance then that would mean the DP-JCP alliance is off which would put DP back to the pre-2016 strategy of a non-LDP non-JCP majority with the JCP back out in the cold again.  In some ways this might be a more viable strategy for DP since this would also mean than an DP-HP-KP alliance is possible in the future.  Main risk is the Left wing of DP is quite large and could defect to JCP leaving DP-HP-KP still behind LDP overall with JCP being a very large spoiler.  Key to avoid a large Center-Left DP rebellion against a DP-HP alliance or merger would be to get anti-JCP labor union confederation Rengo to back it since Rengo is the real paymaster behind many Center-Left DP politicians.   One hitch is that Rengo is pro-nuclear power while Koike's HP came out clearly against nuclear power.

[Lachi]

DP is being screwed from all sides, it seems.