Japan Lower House election - Dec 14, 2014

[jaichind]

I like your seat mockup. Things would have to go well for it to happen, though.

By the way, what would quantify as a "low-turnout election"? Turnout being under 60%?

I think turnout will be between 55-60.  It will most likely be lower than the very low turnout for 2012 but still higher.  The main drivers of low turnout will be

1) Demoralized DPJ voters that turned non-voters in 2012 will come back in trickles but will not make up for other factors.
2) Marginal LDP voters are confused why there is an election and will turn out in lower numbers than 2012 when they came out to vote against DPJ.
3) YP voters will most likely split 4 ways and equal parts to LDP, DPJ, and JIP and non-voters.  Net affect is an decrease in turnout for YP votes from 2012.
4) NKP (really now Komeito Party (KP) since they renamed themselves back to the pre-1993 name) votes will come out to vote KP for PR but the Abe hawkish drive might drive some KP voters who are dovish by nature to abstain in the FPTP seats when it is the KP ally LDP running.  From the point of view of FPTP seats this will represent a drop in de facto turnout.

[jaichind]

I like to write up how the Japan PR system works which I think is quite unique in the world. 

Japan has 180 PR seats which are split over 11 regions  (namely 北海道 (Hokkaido), 東北(Tohoku). 北関東 (Kitakanto or North Kanto), 南関東 (Minamikanto or South Kanto), 東京 (Tokyo), 北陸信越 (Hokurikushinetsu), 東海 (Tokai), 近畿 (Kinki), 中国(Chugoku), 四国 (Shikoku), and 九州 (Kyūshū))

Other than Tokyo each one of these regions has several prefectures which in turn has several FPTP districts.  Each voter gets to vote for a party on a PR list which gets aggregated at the regional level.  Then it gets allocated on PR basis.  Given the fact that the number of seats each region is different the cutoff to get seats might vary by region.

One feature of the Japanese election system is that a candidate ran run on BOTH in a FPTP seat AND on the PR list.   The idea is if such a candidate loses his or her FPTP seat he or she can still get elected on the PR list as long as the ranking they hold is high enough relative to the votes his or her party got in that region.  In fact the way this works can be fairly complicated as the party list for PR can have ties in it if the candidates involved are running also in a FPTP seats. 

The traditional PR list would be the following

Party X list
1. Candidate 1
2. Candidate 2
.
.
Y. Candidate Y

And if Party X gets N amount of the vote then we go down the list and everyone above what N% would qualify would be elected. 

The Japanese PR list allows for the following

Party X
1. Candidate 1 - pure PR list candidate
2. Candidate 2 - pure PR list candidate
3. Candidate 3 - also running in FPTP district a
3. Candidate 4 - also running in FPTP district b
3. Candidate 5 - also running in FPTP district c
4. Candidate 6 - pure PR list candidate
5. Candidate 7 - pure PR list candidate

So what happens is candidates 3 4 5 have equal ranking on the list.  If any of them win their FPTP seat then they are elected and taken out of the PR list.  If more than one of 3 4 or 5 lose their FPTP seat then their relative ranking are determined by their vote share they receive as a percentage of the winning candidate vote share.  What this system does is to encourage a candidate to be willing to run for Party X in a district where party X is weak and have low chance of winning.  The candidate can still win a seat as long as he and she is high up enough on the list and does well enough in the election with their vote share to put them higher up in the order to other losers in the same tier of the PR list.

[jaichind]

New Kyodo poll

Abe Cabinet approval/disapproval   43.6/47.3

PR vote

LDP       28.0  (+2.7)
DPJ        10.3 (+0.9)

53.0% hope the election brings about a more balanced distribution of seats between the ruling and opposition parties, up 1.6 points from the previous survey.

As for the prime minister's economic policies, dubbed "Abenomics," 84.2% said they do not feel Japan's economy has improved.

On the Cabinet's security policy, including reinterpreting the pacifist Constitution to allow Japan to exercise the right to collective self-defense, 53.3% said they do not support it.

[Famous Mortimer]

So what is Abenomics basically? Less doctrinaire free marketism? More pro-business than pro-market, like the Republican Party?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Increased inflation (about 2%) through large quantitative easing programmes to weaken the Yen, in tandem with ostensible economic liberalisation (through free trade deals, labour law loosening and busting various industry rackets).

[jaichind]

Abeconomics is defined as "three arrows": a massive fiscal stimulus, more aggressive monetary easing from the Bank of Japan, and structural reforms to boost Japan's competitiveness.

First two arrows were done with ease because there were no obvious losers from such policies.  The third arrow seems to be all talk and no action so far.

[EPG]

The outcome has been higher inflation without improving economic activity. Japan has already had very low unemployment (currently below 4%) and very high government debt thanks to fiscal stimulus since the mid-1990s. More stimulus just seems to crowd out private-sector investment as people fear that debt will eventually have to fall from above 200 per cent of gross domestic product. But the DPJ do not have a real alternative plan, nor do Abe's LDP opponents.

[jaichind]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-01/moody-s-cuts-japan-s-credit-rating-in-blow-to-abe-ahead-of-polls.html

Moody’s Cuts Japan’s Rating in Blow to Abe Ahead of Election

[jaichind]

A senior LDP election strategist reckons the party will win in 20 to 30 fewer districts than in its landslide 2012 victory but pick up more seats determined by proportional representation. If KP manages to maintain its status quo ante of 31 seats, the coalition stands a good chance of taking 270 to 300 seats, give or take a few, says a senior LDP lawmaker.

This sort of matches my view that LDP will lose a bunch of seats due to opposition tactical voting while LDP-KP make gains in the PR section.  My view is that KP will NOT keep its 31 seats.  4 of KP's FPTP seats are in Osaka which it won last time due to an alliance with JRP.  This time JIP will have an alliance with DPJ so KP might lose all 4 seats which it will be hard to make up.  Also in Hyōgo NKP won 2 of its FPTP seats in 2012 but was backed by JRP.  This time around it will be a lot tougher. 

[Vega]

Are there any seats where the LDP and KP are both running candidates?

[jaichind]

Are there any seats where the LDP and KP are both running candidates?

Nope.  KP will most likely run in 9 FPTP seats and LDP will run in the rest although in a couple LDP might back pro-LDP independents.

[jaichind]

This is a bit late as this took place several days ago but DPJ did do something I recommended.  DPJ forms alliance with regionalist party NPD in Hokkaido.  In 2012, LDP-NKP swept Hokkaido FPTP 12-0 after in 2009 DPJ swept it 11-1.  In 2005 it was DPJ 8-4 despite the Koizumi landslide of 2005.  It was the split between DPJ and NPD that lead to the massive losses in 2012.  Now NPD agreed to support DPJ in 11 of 12 seats and DPJ will support NPD in the 7th district where the NPD candidate backed by DPJ will be daughter of the NPD president.  This alliance should get the DPJ-NPD to something like 6-6 it not something like 8-4 especially if they manage to get ex-PM Yukio Hatoyama who is seen in Hokkaido as a hero to campaign for DPJ-NPD.

[jaichind]

I took a look at what PFG is up to in this election.  They are mostly running against KP, which is dovish, as their main theme.  PFG is projecting itself as a party significantly to the right of LDP and is targeting KP as a danger to Japan by holding back necessary reform.  They seek to displace KP as the governing partner of LDP.  They are running several heavyweights against KP in the FPTP including Toshio Tamogami (田母神 俊雄) who ran as a far right wing independent in the recently Tokyo Governor race and captured 12% of the vote.  Their goal seem to be to reduce KP as much as possible.

[jaichind]

Several media outlets did their own survey and concluded that LDP itself will be at 300 seats if not higher and KP at 31 seats at least if not more.  It projects DPJ going from 59 to around 70.  It also projects a surge in JCP support while there will be large losses for JIP and PFG.    They project that LDP-KP are ahead 230 seats out of 295 FPTP seats and LDP itself could get 80 out of 180 PR seats which would imply that LDP itself would get 41/42% of the PR vote which would put LDP-KP PR vote share 56/57% of the PR vote.

My response to this is: Extremely unlikely.  These projections are based on polls where 45% of those polls did not indicate a preference.  I recon that a bunch of those that said they will vote LDP would not vote and many of those that did not decide will come out to vote for DPJ/JIP.  There is also the factor of JCP tactical voting.  In many districts there will be just 1 non-JCP/PFG opposition party running against LDP/KP.  In such a case some JCP PR voter might vote tactically to try to defeat LDP/KP.  None of these polls take that into account.

I still think LDP-NP would come in around 270-280 seats overall and not the 330-340 projected by the media outlets.  

[jaichind]

Some numbers on how the 295 FPTP competition would look like.  It seems DPJ, JIP, PLP, and SDP have managed to form a loose confederation of various incomplete but substantial alliances and seat adjustments.   In all the seats the JCP ran a candidate.  We can categorize the 295 seats in terms of non-JCP combatants

1) 218 seats where it is a straight 1-on-1 competition between DPJ (149) JIP(51) PLP(9) or SDP(9) and LDP/KP or LDP backed independent
2) 34 seats where seats adjustment failed and two of the set {DPJ, JIP, PLP, and SDP} is running against LDP/KP
3) 43 seats where none of the set { DPJ, JIP, PLP, and SDP} ran a candidate.   30 of which are just LDP/KP running unopposed by non-JCP opposition, 6 where LDP/KP is running against a pro-LDP independen, 2 is LDP/KP is running against PFG, 4 where LDP/KP is running against pro-DPJ independent, 1 is PFG running by itself with LDP support.

Of the 218 seats where it is 1-on-1 between LDP/KP and {DPJ, JIP, PLP, and SDP}, the center-left opposition has the benefit where 28 of them has the PFG running to split out the nationalist vote from LDP/KP.

On the whole the {DPJ, JIP, PLP, and SDP} alliance managed to push down the seats where they would split the anti-LDP vote.  Even if LDP/KP gains votes on top of 2012 they are expected to lose seats under this arrangement relative to 2012 in my view.

[jaichind]

Summery of recent polls

Poll       Date      LDP        KP         DPJ
Mainichi   12/1      38       6          12
Kyodo      11/29    28       4.6       10.3
Sankei     11/25    42       4.8       12.7
Asahi      12/1       34       7          13
Nikkei     11/24     35       3            9

[jaichind]

I did my own prelim projections of the election results.  

Note: all the news outlets projections has a massive majority for LDP with LDP itself over 300 seats which means LDP-KP will be at 340-350.  I very much doubt this.  I might go down with the ship as a poll un-skewer but I think the polls fundamentally overestimate LDP.

My assumptions are

1) Turnout will be low (50-55) which helps KP, JCP and HRP
2) DPJ and JIP will be mostly effective at transferring votes to each other in place where they have seat adjustments, especially when DPJ is transferring support to JIP.  
3) JIP will lose support but it is not even.  JIP will retrain the old JRP base in Osaka but will lose support elsewhere.  This means despite a swing against JIP relative to JRP in 2012 they will be hit in FPTP but will still retain most of their seats in FPTP especially given DPJ support in some of them.
4) YP support will be splintered between DPJ/JIP, LDP, and non-voters with a bias toward DPJ/JIP.  This is the critical of the assumptions and is the main reason my projections are way off the mainstream media projections which implicitly infer that YP support will mainly go to LDP.  

That said the PR vote I project to be

LDP   31%
KP     15%
DPJ    24.3%
JIP     12%
JCP     10%
PFG     3%
PLP     2%
SDP    2%
HRP    0.4%
Other  0.3%

which would translate into a PR seat count for LDP-KP of around 88-92 out of 180.

As for FPTP seats,

1) Of the 149 seats that will be DPJ vs LDP/KP I expect that DPJ will win 37 with another 30 as possible wins for DPJ
2) Of the 51 seats that will be JIP vs LDP/KP I expect that JIP will win 10 with another 13 as possible wins for JIP
3) Of the 9 seats that will be PLP vs LDP/KP I expect that PLP will win 2  
4) Of the 9 seats that will be SDP vs LDP/KP I expect that SDP will win 1 with no chance of any more wins.
5) Of the 34 seats where two of set {DPJ, JIP, PLP, and SDP} will be running against LDP/KP, I expect DPJ to win 2 of them with another 3 as a possibility.  I expect JIP to win 4 of them with another 2 as a possibility.    Note that of these 34  {DPJ, JIP, PLP, and SDP} threw away 13 possible additional seats where they had a chance to win if they actually had a successful seats adjustment but instead have no chance due to the split in vote.  This means that there are 10 out of this 34 where it did not matter that  {DPJ, JIP, PLP, and SDP} could not have agreement to have one candidate to face LDP. Even if they did LDP was going to win anyway.
6) PFG will win 3 seats, 2 against LDP  and 1 unopposed by all non-JCP parties
7) 6 pro-LDP (from a hawk-dove policy point of view which includes a couple of ex-YP sitting MPs) independent will win (1 of them against  {DPJ, JIP, PLP, and SDP} with LDP support, 5 of them against LDP 1-on-1 and they are more pro-PFG but also pro-LDP)
8 ) 2 pro-DPJ independents with the support of  {DPJ, JIP, PLP, and SDP} will win over LDP with 1 pro-DPJ independent  that has a chance to win.
9) 1 JCP possible win in FPTP

This leaves LDP-KP with between 178-227 FPTP seats.  So LDP-KP will get between 266-319 seats overall.  Recall that LDP strategists seems to indicate 270-300 for LDP-KP according to their own analysis (which to be fair could be low-balled as to exceed expectations.)

One thing I am not factoring in is possible anti-LDP tactical voting by JCP PR voters.  If that is significant it makes it much more likely that LDP-KP will get the bottom of the 266-319 mark.  Even without it I am inclined to feel that LDP-KP will toward the lower range my projection.  

If I had to make a guess right now I would said something like 285 for LDP-KP.  Of course if I am wrong about where YP vote will go then the LDP-KP seat share will be massive and will be in the 340-350 range.  

[jaichind]

Stories like

"Struggling Sony to cut pay even as PM Abe calls for higher wages"
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/05/us-sony-pay-idUSKCN0JJ0TX20141205

"Japanese bankruptcies linked to yen hit record high"
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2014/12/06/2003606051

is another reason I think that LDP will not do as well as polls project.  The fundamentals are now working against LDP even as DPJ/JIP seems to bereft of ideas which does mean LDP will win.  Question is with such poor fundamentals how big will the win be. 

[Zuza]

That said the PR vote I project to be

LDP   30%
KP     15%
DPJ    25%
JIP     12.5%
PFG     2.7%
PLP     2%
SDP    2%
HRP    0.4%
Other  0.4%

And the remaining 10% for JCP?

[jaichind]

That said the PR vote I project to be

LDP   30%
KP     15%
DPJ    25%
JIP     12.5%
PFG     2.7%
PLP     2%
SDP    2%
HRP    0.4%
Other  0.4%

And the remaining 10% for JCP?

Oops ... typo.  yes JCP 10%  I will fix

[Famous Mortimer]

So there's been an official agreement between the DPJ and the JIP?

That shows what a terrible (ie non-existent) state the left is in in Japan. Can you imagine Labour and UKIP having such an agreement? Or the PS and the FN?

[jaichind]

So there's been an official agreement between the DPJ and the JIP?

That shows what a terrible (ie non-existent) state the left is in in Japan. Can you imagine Labour and UKIP having such an agreement? Or the PS and the FN?

The agreement is tactical and it is for DPJ and JIP to agree on and avoid competing with each other as much as possible.  In that sense they did a fairly good job getting their act together last few weeks.

To be fair to JIP,  the FN/UKIP component of the original JRP split off and formed PFG, so what remains is more of a regional-populist-libertarian party based on the Hashimoto personality complex.  You can criticize the party but it is not a FN/UKIP.  Besides, DPJ itself have some factions which if you read what they say you can also claim are on the xenophobic side.  On the flip side, the LDP has dovish factions as well.

One ironic thing that made it easier for the JIP and DPJ to form an alliance this time around is that because there has been so many splits, mergers, defections among the opposition parties and their MPs last few years, many of the candidates JIP or DPJ are being asked to support from the other party was at one time part of themselves anyway so it is easy to back a former friend/ally.

[jaichind]

History of turnout in Japan lower house elections



There is talk that turnout will be in the mid 50s and perhaps even below 50%

[Famous Mortimer]

Hashimoto might not be as bad as the PFG but he's still made a fair number of revisionist comments himself.

[EPG]

The DPJ isn't a European-style left-wing party. As in many other democracies, the generic-European left is a deeply unpopular idea in Japan.