Ontario 2018 election

[adma]

Elliott may have won the Don Valley seats and Willowdale but they would have been at 4-5 seats.

Actually, on "Israel-Con" grounds (plus the fact of its being an open seat), I'd put York Centre ahead of either of those.  DVE and DVN as they presently stand are too "moderate" to be particularly singular; and Willowdale's increasingly defined by the moderating condo influence (and it was the closest to a Tory hold in the 416 in 2003 more because of David Young's personal popularity than anything).  Which leaves DVW; and it seems a little wild to imagine Premier Wynne as the *only* Lib in the 416 to fall to a Tory.  Oh, and if you're going to include all of those seats, might as well also toss in Eglinton-Lawrence (again, the Israel-Con thing; and it was their closest call in 2007) and Etobicoke Centre, too...

[136or142]

One thought for the NDP, and Andrea Horwath herself, is to introduce her proposed front bench to Ontarians now. Like it or not, Ford's "the sky is falling if NDP takes over" is resonating.

Horwath would do well to outline that her cabinet would not be made up of "poppy-haters, Hitler lovers and radical marxists" but would include capable and credible people, with experience in politics; people like Peter Tabuns, John Vanthof, Catherine Fife, Michael Mantha, France Gelinas, Gilles Bisson...

Will it sway voters? I don't know but it would be a stronger answer than Horwath trying to fight windmills on her own. And it would make perfect sense, after outlining the NDP platform, to present the team that would carry out the program. After all what does she have to lose?

Of course, this leads up to my popular and frequently demanded NDP cabinet prediction.  (OK nobody has asked for it, but I know it's because you're just too shy  )

This is based on those I expect to win. If it was based on every candidate I'd definitely add Ramsey Hart and Eleanor Fast.

1.Premier/Federal Provincial Relations, Andrea Horwath
2.Finance, Catherine Fife
3.Economic Development and Trade, Marit Stiles
4.Tourism and Small Business, Ian Arthur
5.Labour and Immigration, Taras Natyshak
6.Natural Resources and Mines, Gilles Bisson
7.Energy, Wayne Gates
8.Agriculture/Rural Affairs John Vanthof
9.Environment, Teresa Armstrong
10.Transportation and Infrastructure, Peter Tabuns
11.Government Services and Technology, Monique Taylor (or Alex Felsky or Sandy Shaw)
12.Human Resources and Housing, Jeff Burch
13.Children and Family Development, Bhutila Karpoche
14.Education, Jennifer French
15.Advanced Education and Training, Peggy Sattler
16.Health, France Gelinas
17.Mental Health and Addictions, Chris Glover
18.Citizenship and Culture/Status of Women, Nikki Clarke (or Sara Singh)
19.Municipal Affairs, Paul Miller (or Jennie Stevens)
20.Indigenous Affairs/Northern Affairs, Guy Bourgouin
21.Solicitor General and Public Safety, Lisa Gretzky
22.Attorney General and Justice, Gurratan Singh (the only lawyer in a winnable riding.  If Singh loses, Percy Hatfield)

Speaker, Percy Hatfield
Chief Whip, Michael Mantha

(In a minority government situation, both of these positions would be critical.  According to Yes, Minister, the Chief Whip is more powerful than at least half the cabinet ministers, anyway.  As the Chief Whip told Minister Hacker, ' 'In politics you have to learn to say things with tact and finesse, you berk!')

I understand both Monique Taylor and Paul Miller are under going some kind of  separate work related investigations, if they aren't regarded as cabinet material (unfortunate since they're both from Hamilton), exchange them with Jennie Stevens and Alex Felsky (or Sandy Shaw should she win.
Hey, Sandy Shaw, what happens to you when the tide comes in?  Heh heh heh)

(When I was in elementary school I used to hear, 'hey Adam, where's Eve?' all the damned time.  I hadn't heard it for years when in high school a guy named Aaron said it to me, and I will forever regret that I didn't reply "Hey Aaron, where's Moses?")

[King of Kensington]

In defense of my 'snarky youtube video' reply, if you check your initial post, you'll see that you just mentioned 'suburbs' and not 'outer suburbs.'

A fair point.  I guess the trick is that with Toronto proper being so much bigger than Van proper, it seems a little unfair to compare the closest-in Van suburbs to "905."  But even if I did, Van suburbs seem to be more working class on the whole than 905.

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Yeah...in a way I suppose Van doesn't really have a "905" at all.

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Surrey hasn't really reached "San Jose" type status yet though (i.e. the more suburban city being the largest one in the Bay Area).  It may be big but it seems like a full fledged suburb to me.

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Wouldn't disagree - and Langley is the only one of those in Metro Vancouver.  Though Abbotsford must be pretty close in terms of Van integration maybe in line with Oshawa/Toronto?

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Yes, and that may partially explain why the NDP is more competitive in Metro Vancouver than the GTA (though obviously its dominance of the center-left in BC politics helps a lot too!)

[136or142]

Yes, and that may partially explain why the NDP is more competitive in Metro Vancouver than the GTA (though obviously its dominance of the center-left in BC politics helps a lot too!)

The NDP has been competitive for a long time in Burnaby and Coquitlam and fairly dominant in New Westminster and Port Coquitlam, and somewhat competitive in North Vancouver-Lonsdale (the city of North Vancouver) and North Delta.   I don't know overall how competitive the NDP actually is in North Vancouver-Lonsdale, Delta North, Coquitlam-Burke Mountain (which they narrowly lost in 2017), Port Moody,  the Richmond Ridings (The NDP did the best they have done here since 1975) and one or two of the Surrey ridings as opposed to many of the people in these ridings voting NDP (or Green) as a protest against the B.C Liberals.  

Christy Clark was regarded by many people in Greater Vancouver as hostile to their interests, and in some cases, deliberately hostile (the Yoga event thing that was going to take place on some bridge that was announced out of nowhere and the high cost of the bridge tolls as two examples.)

Especially in 2005, but also in 2009, the region that cost the NDP both of those elections was the Lower Mainland.  From 2005 to the 2017 election, the NDP went from being competitive in most of the Interior/North to being largely shut out, and from uncompetitive in most of the Lower Mainland, to winning a majority of its ridings.

[King of Kensington]

Conservatives (and B.C Liberals) keep hoping that the unionized resource workers (extraction and processing) in and around central and northern Vancouver Island will turn from the NDP, but it hasn't happened so far in any great number.

Part of the problem may be that the BC Liberals are the business party in BC so it's harder for them to claim that they, and not the NDP, are the party of the "little guy."  

But then again, this sort of populist appeal seems to have worked in the Interior, which is a mix of small-"c" conservative "never NDP" areas like the Okanagan but also resource areas like the Kootenays that have shifted rightward.  With the NDP holding seats in ridings like Point Grey and Fairview, it's easier to argue that the NDP is the party of the "metropolitan left" and no longer the party of the workers.

[136or142]

Conservatives (and B.C Liberals) keep hoping that the unionized resource workers (extraction and processing) in and around central and northern Vancouver Island will turn from the NDP, but it hasn't happened so far in any great number.

Part of the problem may be that the BC Liberals are the business party in BC so it's harder for them to claim that they, and not the NDP, are the party of the "little guy."  

But then again, this sort of populist appeal seems to have worked in the Interior, which is a mix of small-"c" conservative "never NDP" areas like the Okanagan but also resource areas like the Kootenays that have shifted rightward.  With the NDP holding seats in ridings like Point Grey and Fairview, it's easier to argue that the NDP is the party of the "metropolitan left" and no longer the party of the workers.

I agree on the Interior/North in general, but I would take ridings like Fraser-Nicola the Cariboo and Prince George (the Prince George ridings are combined urban/rural) as better examples.  I don't think the politics of the Kootenays has shifted.  I think the NDP lost that one riding in the Kootenays in 2017 because the NDP candidate there was exposed as essentially a flake in a high profile way.  The East Kootenay riding (previously held by Liberal Bill Bennett - not the former Premier) has tended to be conservative leaning for quite a number of years.  That ridings main population center, Cranbrook, is quite conservative.   I presume this is because it's close to the Alberta border and possibly identifies more with Alberta than with British Columbia.

[King of Kensington]

While Gordon Campbell was pretty much a Mulroney-style "suit", Christy Clark was a weird mixture of  "populist" and "establishment" without any fixed ideology.  The current leader of the BC Liberals, Andrew Wilkinson, seems to be a Thurston Howell III type mainly concerned about the "plight" of $3 million+ mansion dwellers in Shaughnessy, Kerrisdale, Point Grey and West Vancouver. 

[King of Kensington]

Re: Christine Elliott, I think a lot of people saw a "Mulroney '84" type result with her leading the party.

[136or142]

While Gordon Campbell was pretty much a Mulroney-style "suit", Christy Clark was a weird mixture of  "populist" and "establishment" without any fixed ideology.  The current leader of the BC Liberals, Andrew Wilkinson, seems to be a Thurston Howell III type mainly concerned about the "plight" of $3 million+ mansion dwellers in Shaughnessy, Kerrisdale, Point Grey and West Vancouver.  

Christy Clark, above everything else, was an extreme narcissist.

Andrew Wilkinson definitely seems to be mostly concerned with the upper middle class (as are the major media outlets.) He seems to be a highly intelligent idiot in that he clearly has a high I.Q, but  is totally lacking in common sense.  As I've written here before, other examples of that to me include Chris Alexander and Bill Morneau.

[136or142]

One thought for the NDP, and Andrea Horwath herself, is to introduce her proposed front bench to Ontarians now. Like it or not, Ford's "the sky is falling if NDP takes over" is resonating.

Horwath would do well to outline that her cabinet would not be made up of "poppy-haters, Hitler lovers and radical marxists" but would include capable and credible people, with experience in politics; people like Peter Tabuns, John Vanthof, Catherine Fife, Michael Mantha, France Gelinas, Gilles Bisson...

Will it sway voters? I don't know but it would be a stronger answer than Horwath trying to fight windmills on her own. And it would make perfect sense, after outlining the NDP platform, to present the team that would carry out the program. After all what does she have to lose?

Of course, this leads up to my popular and frequently demanded NDP cabinet prediction.  (OK nobody has asked for it, but I know it's because you're just too shy  )

This is based on those I expect to win. If it was based on every candidate I'd definitely add Ramsey Hart and Eleanor Fast.

1.Premier/Federal Provincial Relations, Andrea Horwath
2.Finance, Catherine Fife
3.Economic Development and Trade, Marit Stiles
4.Tourism and Small Business, Ian Arthur
5.Labour and Immigration, Taras Natyshak
6.Natural Resources and Mines, Gilles Bisson
7.Energy, Wayne Gates
8.Agriculture/Rural Affairs John Vanthof
9.Environment, Teresa Armstrong
10.Transportation and Infrastructure, Peter Tabuns
11.Government Services and Technology, Monique Taylor (or Alex Felsky or Sandy Shaw)
12.Human Resources and Housing, Jeff Burch
13.Children and Family Development, Bhutila Karpoche
14.Education, Jennifer French
15.Advanced Education and Training, Peggy Sattler
16.Health, France Gelinas
17.Mental Health and Addictions, Chris Glover
18.Citizenship and Culture/Status of Women, Nikki Clarke (or Sara Singh)
19.Municipal Affairs, Paul Miller (or Jennie Stevens)
20.Indigenous Affairs/Northern Affairs, Guy Bourgouin
21.Solicitor General and Public Safety, Lisa Gretzky
22.Attorney General and Justice, Gurratan Singh (the only lawyer in a winnable riding.  If Singh loses, Percy Hatfield)

Speaker, Percy Hatfield
Chief Whip, Michael Mantha

(In a minority government situation, both of these positions would be critical.  According to Yes, Minister, the Chief Whip is more powerful than at least half the cabinet ministers, anyway.  As the Chief Whip told Minister Hacker, ' 'In politics you have to learn to say things with tact and finesse, you berk!')

I understand both Monique Taylor and Paul Miller are under going some kind of  separate work related investigations, if they aren't regarded as cabinet material (unfortunate since they're both from Hamilton), exchange them with Jennie Stevens and Alex Felsky (or Sandy Shaw should she win.
Hey, Sandy Shaw, what happens to you when the tide comes in?  Heh heh heh)

(When I was in elementary school I used to hear, 'hey Adam, where's Eve?' all the damned time.  I hadn't heard it for years when in high school a guy named Aaron said it to me, and I will forever regret that I didn't reply "Hey Aaron, where's Moses?")

Seems like a good list.  Unfortuantely they will probably have to put Miller into Cabinet.

Not sure what's wrong with me, I took my pills last night, but I have a compulsion to tell bad jokes here, right now.  Please forgive me.

Well, it's Miller('s) time, after all.

[King of Kensington]

This could be a problem for Miller:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/ndp-miller-allegations-1.4615621

[DL]

Final Abacus poll is out and shows no change at all from last week

NDP 37%
PCs 33%
OLP 23%

But they also find that when given a binary choice 60% prefer a Horwath NDP government vs 40% who prefer a Ford PC government and among Liberal voters that ratio rises to 80/20

Draw your own conclusions about how Wynne’s concession affects things

[ON Progressive]

Final Abacus poll is out and shows no change at all from last week

NDP 37%
PCs 33%
OLP 23%

But they also find that when given a binary choice 60% prefer a Horwath NDP government vs 40% who prefer a Ford PC government and among Liberal voters that ratio rises to 80/20

Draw your own conclusions about how Wynne’s concession affects things

Very interesting stuff. The early vote is surprisingly strong for the Liberals too (34 PC, 30 NDP, 27 Liberal)

[Hatman 🍁]

Final Abacus poll is out and shows no change at all from last week

NDP 37%
PCs 33%
OLP 23%

But they also find that when given a binary choice 60% prefer a Horwath NDP government vs 40% who prefer a Ford PC government and among Liberal voters that ratio rises to 80/20

Draw your own conclusions about how Wynne’s concession affects things

Very interesting stuff. The early vote is surprisingly strong for the Liberals too (34 PC, 30 NDP, 27 Liberal)

Ugh. How many of those Liberal voters would've switched to the NDP had they not voted ahead of time? There was a lot of this in the 2011 federal election. Costed the NDP at least one seat in Quebec (Westmount) from what I recall.

One of the many reasons I would prefer people not vote ahead of time.

[ON Progressive]

Final Abacus poll is out and shows no change at all from last week

NDP 37%
PCs 33%
OLP 23%

But they also find that when given a binary choice 60% prefer a Horwath NDP government vs 40% who prefer a Ford PC government and among Liberal voters that ratio rises to 80/20

Draw your own conclusions about how Wynne’s concession affects things

Very interesting stuff. The early vote is surprisingly strong for the Liberals too (34 PC, 30 NDP, 27 Liberal)

Ugh. How many of those Liberal voters would've switched to the NDP had they not voted ahead of time? There was a lot of this in the 2011 federal election. Costed the NDP at least one seat in Quebec (Westmount) from what I recall.

One of the many reasons I would prefer people not vote ahead of time.

Part of me thinks this was because these folks are diehard Liberals who weren’t going to switch.

I know I voted early because I knew I wasn’t going to switch anyway, and just wanted to get it out of the way.

[Hatman 🍁]

Most are partisans yes, but I would bet at least a few would've switched. And in this election a lot of partisan Liberals will be switching to the NDP.

[Panhandle Progressive]

? for Canadians:

It seems like the problem (with the left/center left) being unable to win a majority of seats for this election is that the vote is being split amongst NDP/Lib. Alberta united-the-right by merging the PC and Wildrose parties to create the UCP. Do you believe something like this should be done to unite more voters or do you like the system the way it is? And even if on election day, more voters support the left/center left but Doug Ford becomes the premier. Maybe you don't care for a big tent party and prefer the system as it is?

[Hatman 🍁]

? for Canadians:

It seems like the problem (with the left/center left) being unable to win a majority of seats for this election is that the vote is being split amongst NDP/Lib. Alberta united-the-right by merging the PC and Wildrose parties to create the UCP. Do you believe something like this should be done to unite more voters or do you like the system the way it is? And even if on election day, more voters support the left/center left but Doug Ford becomes the premier. Maybe you don't care for a big tent party and prefer the system as it is?

I don't want to be in party with neoliberals thank you very much.

[cp]

Yeah, any merger of the Liberals with the NDP would probably be unsatisfactory, if not outright unacceptable, to the majority of both parties.

Truth be told, there's not nearly as much incentive to do this in Canada. Excepting Alberta, right-leaning parties across the country are nowhere near as well entrenched or electorally successful as the Republican Party is in the US.

[rob in cal]

  So whats the approximate % of total vote for PC's to win Ontario wide that gets them a majority of seats, assuming the party vote spread is somewhere around what the polls are showing now?

[King of Kensington]

Here's a list for me of 62 NDP seats.  It requires everything to "go right" to get there including dominance of Toronto, Brampton and Ottawa, and defeating Ford in pretty much every single rust belt-ish seat.  

So it means dominating working class and urban constituencies, leaving Ford more or less as a commuter belt and rural phenomenon.

1. Ottawa Centre
2. Ottawa South
3. Ottawa-Vanier
4. Ottawa West-Nepean
5. Kingston and the Islands
6. Peterborough-Kawartha
7. Durham
8. Oshawa
9. Beaches-East York
10. Davenport
11. Don Valley East
12. Etobicoke-Lakeshore
13. Humber River-Black Creek
14. Parkdale-High Park
15. Scarborough Centre
16. Scarborough-Guildwood
17. Scarborough North
18. Scarborough-Rouge Park
19. Scarborough Southwest
20. Spadina-Fort York
21. St. Paul's
22. Toronto Centre
23. Toronto-Danforth
24. University-Rosedale
25. Willowdale
26. York South-Weston
27. Brampton Centre
28. Brampton East
29. Brampton North
30. Brampton South
31. Brampton West
32. Mississauga-Malton
33. Hamilton Centre
34. Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
35. Hamilton Mountain
36. Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas
37. Niagara Centre
38. Niagara Falls
39. St. Catharines
40. Brantford
41. Cambridge
42. Chatham-Kent-Essex
43. Essex
42. Kitchener Centre
43. Kitchener-Conestoga
44. Kitchener South-Hespeler
45. London-Fanshawe
46. London North Centre
47. London West
48. Perth-Wellington
49. Sarnia-Lambton
50. Waterloo
51. Windsor-Tecumseh
52. Windsor West
53. Algoma-Manitoulin
54. Kenora
55. Nickel Belt
56. Sault Ste. Marie
57. Sudbury
58. Thunder Bay-Atikokan
59. Thunder Bay-Superior North
60. Timmins
61. Kiiweetinoong
62. Mushkegowuk-James Bay

If they really drive down the Liberal vote and go into majority territory. maybe Ajax, Pickering, Whitby, maybe another Toronto seat, two more in Mississauga, Flamborough-Glanbrook (hometown effect) etc. could fall.  And they may need some of these anyway given that I don't think there's a lot of PC seats the NDP will take.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Mainstreet is going to release a number of riding polls in what should be highly competitive districts today:
Thunder Bay—Atikokan (update)
Humber River Black Creek (update)
Don Valley North (update)
Toronto St Pauls (update)
Scarborough Guildwood
Ottawa Vanier
Scarborough Rouge Park
Orleans

Also will be released today but should be easy PC Gain
Scarborough Agincourt
Burlington
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill

[King of Kensington]

God I hope the PCs aren't leading comfortably in Guildwood and Rouge Park and that they haven't increased their support in Humber.

[RogueBeaver]

Star snapshots DVW.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's a list for me of 62 NDP seats.  It requires everything to "go right" to get there including dominance of Toronto, Brampton and Ottawa, and defeating Ford in pretty much every single rust belt-ish seat.  

So it means dominating working class and urban constituencies, leaving Ford more or less as a commuter belt and rural phenomenon.

1. Ottawa Centre
2. Ottawa South
3. Ottawa-Vanier
4. Ottawa West-Nepean
5. Kingston and the Islands
6. Peterborough-Kawartha
7. Durham
8. Oshawa
9. Beaches-East York
10. Davenport
11. Don Valley East
12. Etobicoke-Lakeshore
13. Humber River-Black Creek
14. Parkdale-High Park
15. Scarborough Centre
16. Scarborough-Guildwood
17. Scarborough North
18. Scarborough-Rouge Park
19. Scarborough Southwest
20. Spadina-Fort York
21. St. Paul's
22. Toronto Centre
23. Toronto-Danforth
24. University-Rosedale
25. Willowdale
26. York South-Weston
27. Brampton Centre
28. Brampton East
29. Brampton North
30. Brampton South
31. Brampton West
32. Mississauga-Malton
33. Hamilton Centre
34. Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
35. Hamilton Mountain
36. Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas
37. Niagara Centre
38. Niagara Falls
39. St. Catharines
40. Brantford
41. Cambridge
42. Chatham-Kent-Essex
43. Essex
42. Kitchener Centre
43. Kitchener-Conestoga
44. Kitchener South-Hespeler
45. London-Fanshawe
46. London North Centre
47. London West
48. Perth-Wellington
49. Sarnia-Lambton
50. Waterloo
51. Windsor-Tecumseh
52. Windsor West
53. Algoma-Manitoulin
54. Kenora
55. Nickel Belt
56. Sault Ste. Marie
57. Sudbury
58. Thunder Bay-Atikokan
59. Thunder Bay-Superior North
60. Timmins
61. Kiiweetinoong
62. Mushkegowuk-James Bay

If they really drive down the Liberal vote and go into majority territory. maybe Ajax, Pickering, Whitby, maybe another Toronto seat, two more in Mississauga, Flamborough-Glanbrook (hometown effect) etc. could fall.  And they may need some of these anyway given that I don't think there's a lot of PC seats the NDP will take.

This is pretty much my list. I don't disagree with any of them, though if you believe the riding polling (lol) some of them are off the table.