Ontario 2018 election

[DL]

For all the buzz about the Liberals showing “signs of life” and getting a “bounce” after the debate...looking at EKOS and Mainstreet and Research.co polls out today....looks to my like the dead cat bounce is DEAD

[Hatman 🍁]

Hey Hatman, would you be able to combine the figures for City of Toronto and for the 905/GTA?

Well, our hilariously small regional subsamples are on our site. But, if I expand the dates in field to the last six days, things make a bit more sense. The NDP leads in Hamilton/Niagara, the PCs lead Halton/Peel and are well ahead in York/Durham with the NDP and Liberals battling it out for second.

[Hatman 🍁]

For all the buzz about the Liberals showing “signs of life” and getting a “bounce” after the debate...looking at EKOS and Mainstreet and Research.co polls out today....looks to my like the dead cat bounce is DEAD

Indeed. My irrational anxiety about the Liberals coming back from the dead has been relieved!

[PeteB]

Short of a Watergate type event, at this stage there are only 2 possible results of this election:

1. PC majority (probably in the 65-72 seat range)

2. A hung parliament with PC close to majority territory (58-62 seats)

The second option is only possible with two seemingly incompatible trends happening at the same time:

1. The NDP vote improving in a lot of two way races (Chatham Kent Lambton, Hamilton West Ancaster Dundas, Brantford Brant, Sarnia- Lambton), by drawing in former Liberal voters

AND

2. At the same time, Liberal vote strengthening to take a number of urban ridings in Toronto (Eglinton Lawrence, Willowdale, Etobicoke Lakeshore, Etobicoke Centre, Don Valley North), Ottawa (Ottawa South, Orleans) and Peel (Mississauga Centre, Mississauga Maltin, Mississauga Lakeshore).

Unfortunately statistics (and smart money) makes the first option much more likely.

Unfortunately, get ready for a President Trump - Premier Ford summit .

[King of Kensington]

It would be quite something to see both the "chattering class" and "champagne sipping elite" bastions of University-Rosedale and St. Paul's go NDP.  

(I guess the same dynamic is at work in Vancouver with the NDP holding Point Grey - but the NDP was already the dominant center-left party).

[King of Kensington]

Short of a Watergate type event, at this stage there are only 2 possible results of this election:

1. PC majority (probably in the 65-72 seat range)

2. A hung parliament with PC close to majority territory (58-62 seats)

The second option is only possible with two seemingly incompatible trends happening at the same time:

1. The NDP vote improving in a lot of two way races (Chatham Kent Lambton, Hamilton West Ancaster Dundas, Brantford Brant, Sarnia- Lambton), by drawing in former Liberal voters

AND

2. At the same time, Liberal vote strengthening to take a number of urban ridings in Toronto (Eglinton Lawrence, Willowdale, Etobicoke Lakeshore, Etobicoke Centre, Don Valley North), Ottawa (Ottawa South, Orleans) and Peel (Mississauga Centre, Mississauga Maltin, Mississauga Lakeshore).

Unfortunately statistics (and smart money) makes the first option much more likely.

Unfortunately, get ready for a President Trump - Premier Ford summit .

1. HWAD is a very different seat from the others you mention (it's the "London West" of Hamilton, not a blue collar seat)

2. You've given up on Del Duca?

Sadly, I think you're right about the outcome though.

[DL]

Question for everyone. IF the province wide popular vote is tied between the PCs And NDP (or at least very close) and IF the PCs are winning their traditional rural seats by huge margins and IF the PCs are also winning almost every seat in 905 by double digit margins and sometime high double digit margins....where is the NDP piling up so many votes to make the province wide popular vote so close? I know the ndp is strong in some urban seats but they don’t seem to be winning those seats by the huge margins the PCs are winning by in their strongholds

[Hatman 🍁]

Ok, I guess I should update this list to identify NDP majority targets

1. Ottawa Centre
2. Ottawa—Vanier
3. Bay of Quinte
4. Kingston and the Islands
5. Peterborough—Kawartha
6. Durham
7. Oshawa
8. Brampton Centre
9. Brampton East
10. Brampton North
11. Brampton South
12. Brampton West
13. Mississauga—Malton
14. Scarborough Centre
15. Scarborough—Guildwood
16. Scarborough North
17. Scarborough—Rouge Park
18. Scarborough Southwest
19. Don Valley East
20. Beaches—East York
21. Davenport
22. Parkdale—High Park
23. Spadina—Fort York
24. Toronto Centre
25. Toronto—Danforth
26. University—Rosedale
27. Humber River—Black Creek
28. York South—Weston
29. Hamilton Centre
30. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
31. Hamilton Mountain
32. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas
33. Niagara Centre
34. Niagara Falls
35. St. Catharines
36. Brantford—Brant
37. Cambridge
38. Guelph
39. Huron—Bruce
40. Kitchener Centre
41. Kitchener South—Hespeler
42. Perth—Wellington
43. Waterloo
44. Chatham-Kent—Leamington
45. Essex
46. London—Fanshawe
47. London North Centre
48. London West
49. Sarnia—Lambton
50. Windsor—Tecumseh
51. Windsor West
52. Algoma—Manitoulin
53. Mushkegowuk—James Bay
54. Nickel belt
55. Sault Ste. Marie
56. Sudbury
57. Timiskaming—Cochrane
58. Timmins
59. Kenora—Rainy River
60. Kiiwetinoong
61. Thunder Bay—Atikokan
62. Thunder Bay—Superior North
63. Toronto—St. Paul's

Replace with:
Ottawa South
Ottawa West-Nepean
Whitby
Kitchener-Conestoga

[PeteB]

Short of a Watergate type event, at this stage there are only 2 possible results of this election:

1. PC majority (probably in the 65-72 seat range)

2. A hung parliament with PC close to majority territory (58-62 seats)

The second option is only possible with two seemingly incompatible trends happening at the same time:

1. The NDP vote improving in a lot of two way races (Chatham Kent Lambton, Hamilton West Ancaster Dundas, Brantford Brant, Sarnia- Lambton), by drawing in former Liberal voters

AND

2. At the same time, Liberal vote strengthening to take a number of urban ridings in Toronto (Eglinton Lawrence, Willowdale, Etobicoke Lakeshore, Etobicoke Centre, Don Valley North), Ottawa (Ottawa South, Orleans) and Peel (Mississauga Centre, Mississauga Maltin, Mississauga Lakeshore).

Unfortunately statistics (and smart money) makes the first option much more likely.

Unfortunately, get ready for a President Trump - Premier Ford summit .

1. HWAD is a very different seat from the others you mention (it's the "London West" of Hamilton, not a blue collar seat)

2. You've given up on Del Duca?

Sadly, I think you're right about the outcome though.

1. Agreed about the demographics of Hamilton West, but the Mainstreet poll puts the seat in play - if the NDP is to win it, it needs Liberal voters, just like the others mentioned.

2. I didn't mention Don Valley West, Ottawa Vanier or Toronto-St. Paul's either - these will all be Liberal holds, along with Vaughan Woodbridge. So yes, I still believe Del Duca will hold Vaughan Woodbridge - I just don't think there are any NDP voters there to help him.

[Oryxslayer]

Question for everyone. IF the province wide popular vote is tied between the PCs And NDP (or at least very close) and IF the PCs are winning their traditional rural seats by huge margins and IF the PCs are also winning almost every seat in 905 by double digit margins and sometime high double digit margins....where is the NDP piling up so many votes to make the province wide popular vote so close? I know the ndp is strong in some urban seats but they don’t seem to be winning those seats by the huge margins the PCs are winning by in their strongholds

Their own strongholds in the south and urban Toronto, its really quite simple. We already have deduced that there is a 4-5% geographic advantage against the NDP vote unless the NDP morphs and re-builds their party brand into a center-left party that can pick up suburban seats - a-la western NDP parties.

[King of Kensington]

The Toronto numbers from Ekos sound too good to be true.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Star has endorsed the NDP! Maybe I'll buy a copy just like I did in 2011, the last time they endorsed the NDP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

We already have deduced that there is a 4-5% geographic advantage against the NDP vote

You have done no such thing as that's not how these things work.

[King of Kensington]

The Too Close To Call guy weighs in on the NDP's "905 problem" and what the NDP can do to win:

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2018/06/is-ndp-vote-really-that-inefficient.html

[Oryxslayer]

We already have deduced that there is a 4-5% geographic advantage against the NDP vote

You have done no such thing as that's not how these things work.

Here is a chart that I've prepared that tries to predict possible outcomes based on PC and NDP polling.

So 4% is the magic number. The NDP needs to win by 4 points. Makes sense.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's a general guideline for punditry, but it's only speculation. We should know from the BC election that geographic disadvantages can prove to be non existent.

[136or142]

The main difference between the new Ekos poll and the previous one is that the NDP has lost support to the Green Party.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

As has been said I think the "Doug Ford headed for a Majority" headlines in the weekend before the election could work in the NDP's favor by galvanizing their softer/less-likely-to-vote supporters to go to the polls at a higher rate than they might have if it looked like the NDP was cruising (a la Hillary 2016) and by nudging whatever soft Libs are left to the NDP now that Premier Doug Ford is a very real possibility. But regardless its looking to be a nailbiter, which prob gives the PCs the edge, although I don't really buy that the NDP will be hurt *that* badly by geography, if they see the kind of swings polls suggest then it's gonna happen in weird and unexpected places and will probably be much bigger outside of their strongholds than within them. But the NDP hasn't taken off in the past week like I thought they might in the past week, although there's still a little less than a week left, that's still plenty of time for the Libs to further collapse or for the PCs to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, as is their wont. Or of course, the polls could be wildly wrong and either party could run away with it (not the Liberals though, although I'd love it if it did happen bc it'd be ing hysterical), this is Canadian polling we're talking about!

On that note, I do believe it's possible there's a Corbyn-style result where the socialist/social democratic party overperforms expectations in part because of a massive surge in youth support and turnout that none of the pollsters picked up. Has there been an upswing in passionate/general support for Horwath among the youth population? I'd imagine her student loan policies are very attractive to them.

[PeteB]

Fwiw, Wynne in an editorial interview with the Hamilton Spectator is clearly hinting Liberals would support an NDP minority government:

https://www.thespec.com/opinion-story/8645777-wynne-hints-at-supporting-minority-ndp/

Of course, Wynne may not be calling the shots on behalf of the Liberals, after the election.

And first we have to get a minority situation.

[Oryxslayer]

As has been said I think the "Doug Ford headed for a Majority" headlines in the weekend before the election could work in the NDP's favor by galvanizing their softer/less-likely-to-vote supporters to go to the polls at a higher rate than they might have if it looked like the NDP was cruising (a la Hillary 2016) and by nudging whatever soft Libs are left to the NDP now that Premier Doug Ford is a very real possibility. But regardless its looking to be a nailbiter, which prob gives the PCs the edge, although I don't really buy that the NDP will be hurt *that* badly by geography, if they see the kind of swings polls suggest then it's gonna happen in weird and unexpected places and will probably be much bigger outside of their strongholds than within them. But the NDP hasn't taken off in the past week like I thought they might in the past week, although there's still a little less than a week left, that's still plenty of time for the Libs to further collapse or for the PCs to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, as is their wont. Or of course, the polls could be wildly wrong and either party could run away with it (not the Liberals though, although I'd love it if it did happen bc it'd be ing hysterical), this is Canadian polling we're talking about!

On that note, I do believe it's possible there's a Corbyn-style result where the socialist/social democratic party overperforms expectations in part because of a massive surge in youth support and turnout that none of the pollsters picked up. Has there been an upswing in passionate/general support for Horwath among the youth population? I'd imagine her student loan policies are very attractive to them.

We had a poll I believe a few pages back that laid the groundwork for a Corbyn-esqe situation: 90% of PC supporters were committed towards voting, whereas only about 60% of NDPers were similarly committed. That said, don't go all in on a youth surge - provincial elections are like US midterms where turnout drops by a considerable margin. At least right now, I would be betting on a PC majority...but we all know that defeat and the Ontario PC's seem to go hand in hand.

[King of Kensington]

On that note, I do believe it's possible there's a Corbyn-style result where the socialist/social democratic party overperforms expectations in part because of a massive surge in youth support and turnout that none of the pollsters picked up. Has there been an upswing in passionate/general support for Horwath among the youth population? I'd imagine her student loan policies are very attractive to them.

I don't see that happening.  There is no "Corbynesque" movement among the young people of Ontario or any Andrea-mania really (or anything resembling the excitement about Justin Trudeau in 2015, for that matter).  People are turning to the NDP more because they're tired of the Liberals and are willing to give the NDP a try.

[adma]

Question for everyone. IF the province wide popular vote is tied between the PCs And NDP (or at least very close) and IF the PCs are winning their traditional rural seats by huge margins and IF the PCs are also winning almost every seat in 905 by double digit margins and sometime high double digit margins....where is the NDP piling up so many votes to make the province wide popular vote so close? I know the ndp is strong in some urban seats but they don’t seem to be winning those seats by the huge margins the PCs are winning by in their strongholds

 By the Mainstreety sounds of things, maybe the "huge margins" for the PCs *aren't* in their rural strongholds.  That is, if we consider that the York Region riding which is *both* most geographically peripheral *and* has the longest continuous PC history, York-Simcoe, might be poised to be, well, its closest thing to a PC-NDP race this time around.  (And hey, why not.  It's the only part which saw the NDP elected under Rae in 1990; there's long been a strong white-trash-populist element around Lake Simcoe which explains the same; and don't discount some backlash against the PC candidate, a parachute and the daughter of you-know-who...)

[King of Kensington]

Hmmm...maybe the super-establishment (and disliked) Mulroney name is hurting Ford's "populist" appeal there (though I don't think it'll be particularly close).

But it's also the most working class seat in York Region (albeit only partially in York Region), so it makes sense that the NDP would be doing better there.

[Hatman 🍁]

On that note, I do believe it's possible there's a Corbyn-style result where the socialist/social democratic party overperforms expectations in part because of a massive surge in youth support and turnout that none of the pollsters picked up. Has there been an upswing in passionate/general support for Horwath among the youth population? I'd imagine her student loan policies are very attractive to them.

I don't see that happening.  There is no "Corbynesque" movement among the young people of Ontario or any Andrea-mania really (or anything resembling the excitement about Justin Trudeau in 2015, for that matter).  People are turning to the NDP more because they're tired of the Liberals and are willing to give the NDP a try.

Indeed. Turnout has been dismal in recent provincial elections, and I doubt this one will be much different. Though the polarization will help boost turnout a bit. If the NDP had a more charismatic leader they'd probably win in a slam dunk.

[King of Kensington]

It's a general guideline for punditry, but it's only speculation. We should know from the BC election that geographic disadvantages can prove to be non existent.

The Lower Mainland suburbs seem to be more working class than the 905 region.