Ontario 2018 election

[King of Kensington]

Unlike Hudak, AFAIK Ford hasn't attacked unions and collective bargaining in this election.  Obviously he wants to win back all those working class Conservative voters Hudak lost in 2014 (he also snuck into the labour day parade in Toronto last year).

[PeteB]

Also, I fully expect that one of the two Liberal MPPs in Thunder Bay (Mauro or Gravelle) gets re-elected. It would strengthen TB's position in any minority government situation, and leave them as viable future Liberal leaders.

[Krago]

Also, I fully expect that one of the two Liberal MPPs in Thunder Bay (Mauro or Gravelle) gets re-elected. It would strengthen TB's position in any minority government situation, and leave them as viable future Liberal leaders.

After the disastrous 1990 election, the Liberals picked a leader from Thunder Bay.  How did that turn out?

[2952-0-0]

I think the NDP is banking on the Andrea the "real" populist prevailing over Doug the "fake" populist in every single rust belt-ish seat in the province.

One thing I would consider if I were in the NDP war room would be to point out the Liberals and PCs seem to be regurgitating each others' attacks on us - and hint that maybe it isn't even a coincidence.

[adma]

Also, I fully expect that one of the two Liberal MPPs in Thunder Bay (Mauro or Gravelle) gets re-elected. It would strengthen TB's position in any minority government situation, and leave them as viable future Liberal leaders.

After the disastrous 1990 election, the Liberals picked a leader from Thunder Bay.  How did that turn out?

And when it comes to the will for "fresh blood", the present office-holders are 62 and 69--just saying...

[136or142]

Unlike Hudak, AFAIK Ford hasn't attacked unions and collective bargaining in this election.  Obviously he wants to win back all those working class Conservative voters Hudak lost in 2014 (he also snuck into the labour day parade in Toronto last year).

Donald Trump also generally played nice with unions during the 2016 U.S election.

[DC Al Fine]

Game changer!

https://twitter.com/OntarioPCParty/status/1000439982430085121

This will bring back the socons pissed about Allen who also drink vote. Its like eight people but I'm one of them. Woo cheap beer!!!

Looking at this seriously (yes, I know it's hard to ), there are two possible conclusions:

1. PC campaign feels that they have to bolster their core support (Buck beer is Ford Nation campaign promise), OR

2. Doug Ford came up with this brainwave on his own and didn't consult anyone.

My money (at least one beercan's worth) is on #2.

Why not both?

Seriously though, I've long thought liberalizing liquor laws would be an excellent wedge issue for conservative parties. Benefits include:

1) It gets the free marketeers excited. This seems crucial where Ford is underperforming with "business liberal" per Innovative Research.

2) It appeals to a lot of working class voters who would otherwise be inaccessible to the right. (Ford Nation has already captured some of this effect)

3) It makes the Liberals and NDP look like hectoring nannies, and in the pocket of the unions respectively.

The third point is especially important given the Tories stalling and the NDP's surge. Honestly I'm surprised it wasn't tried a decade ago. Perhaps there is a silent majority that likes restrictive liquor laws.

[King of Kensington]

So Mainstreet is supposed to be releasing some riding poll results this afternoon...

[ON Progressive]

So Mainstreet is supposed to be releasing some riding poll results this afternoon...

NDP lead in Algoma–Manitoulin, Scarborough Southwest, and Ottawa West–Nepean

PC lead in Sarnia–Lambton, and Kitchener–Conestoga

OLP lead in Toronto-St. Pauls

These make absolutely no sense. The NDP leading in Ottawa West-Nepean but losing in Sarnia-Lambton would be bizarre to say the least.

[Hifly]

So Mainstreet is supposed to be releasing some riding poll results this afternoon...

NDP lead in Algoma–Manitoulin, Scarborough Southwest, and Ottawa West–Nepean

PC lead in Sarnia–Lambton, and Kitchener–Conestoga

OLP lead in Toronto-St. Pauls

These make absolutely no sense. The NDP leading in Ottawa West-Nepean but losing in Sarnia-Lambton would be bizarre to say the least.

Do you have figures? Not that electorate polls will be at all useful.

[ON Progressive]

So Mainstreet is supposed to be releasing some riding poll results this afternoon...

NDP lead in Algoma–Manitoulin, Scarborough Southwest, and Ottawa West–Nepean

PC lead in Sarnia–Lambton, and Kitchener–Conestoga

OLP lead in Toronto-St. Pauls

These make absolutely no sense. The NDP leading in Ottawa West-Nepean but losing in Sarnia-Lambton would be bizarre to say the least.

Do you have figures? Not that electorate polls will be at all useful.

I'm not a subscriber unfortunately, so I don't.

[DC Al Fine]

So Mainstreet is supposed to be releasing some riding poll results this afternoon...

NDP lead in Algoma–Manitoulin, Scarborough Southwest, and Ottawa West–Nepean

PC lead in Sarnia–Lambton, and Kitchener–Conestoga

OLP lead in Toronto-St. Pauls

These make absolutely no sense. The NDP leading in Ottawa West-Nepean but losing in Sarnia-Lambton would be bizarre to say the least.

Well they are riding polls, so take it with a heap of salt. That said if the vote is breaking on populist/non-populist lines Ottawa is prime non-populist territory. Yes I know I'm equivocating.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP seems to be benefiting the most in ridings where there is residual Liberal support by coming up the middle, but in strict PC-NDP races, they are lagging behind.

Ottawa West-Nepean is very much a surprise. The NDP have no history there, except when Alex Cullen crossed the floor (oh, and also sitting on city council afterward if that counts).

[PeteB]

So Mainstreet is supposed to be releasing some riding poll results this afternoon...

NDP lead in Algoma–Manitoulin, Scarborough Southwest, and Ottawa West–Nepean

PC lead in Sarnia–Lambton, and Kitchener–Conestoga

OLP lead in Toronto-St. Pauls

These make absolutely no sense. The NDP leading in Ottawa West-Nepean but losing in Sarnia-Lambton would be bizarre to say the least.

Ottawa West Nepean going to the NDP may happen, but only if they first take Ottawa Centre and Ottawa South. No sign of that yet, so I would take this poll with a large grain of salt. The other polls seem to make sense (I know Sarnia Lambton is a big goal for the NDP, but just like CKL, that may not happen).

[Hatman 🍁]

I think it is pretty clear the NDP are winning Ottawa Centre now. I don't think Ottawa South is a higher up target than Ottawa West-Nepean necessarily. They are pretty similar ridings, though Ottawa South I think is wealthier and more diverse, making it more Liberal friendly. The NDP has no history in either riding, though as I said, Ottawa West did have an NDP MPP briefly.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are the St. Paul's numbers. Wooo!

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/1000827812285222913

[PeteB]

I think it is pretty clear the NDP are winning Ottawa Centre now. I don't think Ottawa South is a higher up target than Ottawa West-Nepean necessarily. They are pretty similar ridings, though Ottawa South I think is wealthier and more diverse, making it more Liberal friendly. The NDP has no history in either riding, though as I said, Ottawa West did have an NDP MPP briefly.

Anything is possible but it would stand to reason that the NDP conquers easier targets first. And I have doubts that they can beat Naqvi in OC, although if the Liberals keep tanking, anything is possible.

Btw, maybe this latest twitter comment by Quito Maggi explains results in the SW: ".Interesting results tonight from both our Province wide and riding polls, could be seeing the beginning of new strategic voting Blue Liberals starting to break PC..."

[DC Al Fine]

I think it is pretty clear the NDP are winning Ottawa Centre now. I don't think Ottawa South is a higher up target than Ottawa West-Nepean necessarily. They are pretty similar ridings, though Ottawa South I think is wealthier and more diverse, making it more Liberal friendly. The NDP has no history in either riding, though as I said, Ottawa West did have an NDP MPP briefly.

Yes, but floor crossing doesn't count. You might as well cite Bruce Hyer for why the Greens would win Thunder Bay in a surge.

[King of Kensington]

I decided to subscribe.

The NDP is cleaning up in Toronto Centre and is surprisingly close to the Liberals in St. Paul's.

Scarborough SW is a bit discouraging from a progressive point of view and suggests that the PCs will win most of Scarborough.

St. Catharines is also encouraging for the NDP.

Sarnia-Lambton suggests that the NDP can't count on "owning" the rust belt vote and that Ford does have a populist appeal there.

The Ottawa numbers are really surprising.

[King of Kensington]

Kathleen Wynne has a narrow lead in DVW.

[Hatman 🍁]

If the NDP moves up any more in Toronto, then Kathleen Wynne might end up being the last Liberal MPP at all (though I do suspect at least one of the Thunder Bay MPPs will hang on).

[PeteB]

I decided to subscribe.

The NDP is cleaning up in Toronto Centre and is surprisingly close to the Liberals in St. Paul's.

Scarborough SW is a bit discouraging from a progressive point of view and suggests that the PCs will win most of Scarborough.

St. Catharines is also encouraging for the NDP.

Sarnia-Lambton suggests that the NDP can't count on "owning" the rust belt vote and that Ford does have a populist appeal there.

The Ottawa numbers are really surprising.

What is the current NDP margin in Ottawa Centre?

[DC Al Fine]

If the NDP moves up any more in Toronto, then Kathleen Wynne might end up being the last Liberal MPP at all (though I do suspect at least one of the Thunder Bay MPPs will hang on).

What's with the Liberals and Thunder Bay? It sounds like a bad fit but they always seem to win and hold on longer than you'd expect.

[Hatman 🍁]

I decided to subscribe.

The NDP is cleaning up in Toronto Centre and is surprisingly close to the Liberals in St. Paul's.

Scarborough SW is a bit discouraging from a progressive point of view and suggests that the PCs will win most of Scarborough.

St. Catharines is also encouraging for the NDP.

Sarnia-Lambton suggests that the NDP can't count on "owning" the rust belt vote and that Ford does have a populist appeal there.

The Ottawa numbers are really surprising.

What is the current NDP margin in Ottawa Centre?

they haven't polled there yet, but based on the swings in OWN and Ottawa South on the MainStreet polls, the NDP would have at least a 5 point lead in Ottawa Centre. (and that's not accounting for the fact that OC has far more promiscuous progressives than anywhere else in the city).

[PeteB]

If the NDP moves up any more in Toronto, then Kathleen Wynne might end up being the last Liberal MPP at all (though I do suspect at least one of the Thunder Bay MPPs will hang on).

What's with the Liberals and Thunder Bay? It sounds like a bad fit but they always seem to win and hold on longer than you'd expect.

TB and the whole North is an isolated community and cares more about its wellbeing than party politics (that is why unions are supporting Romano in SSM). In TB we also have a case of two well respected MPPS and Ministers, who have done a lot for their constituents!