Ontario 2018 election

[PeteB]

Laura Kaminker's pacifism may be well received in some downtown urban centres, but will probably not help the NDP in rural ridings and smaller towns. Harden's opinions on getting rid of the Catholic school boards may have merit, but will probably ensure that the NDP win very few seats in Eastern Ontario.  Tasleem Riaz's facebook Nazi meme share may be unintentional, but it will kill off any chances of NDP being competitive in many Jewish communities.

Andrea Horwath, I feel your pain !

The Laura Kaminker story was a big stoyr a week ago and through the long weekend...and NDP support just kept going up. No evidence of any impact

Harden's past views on Catholic schools are also irrelevant. He has said he will follow party policy and no one seriously thinks the NDP is suddenly going to eliminate the Catholic school system...in any case in a downtown, secular "urban intelligentsia" riding like Ottawa Centre, I'll bet most people would agree with Harden about merging the school systems into one.

The Jewish vote is only really relevant in three or four ridings (Thornhill, York Centre, Eglinton-Lawrence and St. Paul's) and the NDP could win 100 out of 124 seats and not even come close in any of those four...

Like I said, the NDP are lucky (so far) that the MSM has not really picked up any of these stories (not really considering the Toronto Sun as MSM). If they do, we'll see whether there is any impact on voter intentions.

[DC Al Fine]

DL. I agree that these probably won't have any lasting impact, but re the Ottawa Centre guy; the point is less about that local race and more about the image of the party. I doubt it would have made much difference where Lake of Fire guy had run for example.

[King of Kensington]

Jewish religion (2011 NHS):

Thornhill  40,710  37.1%
Eglinton-Lawrence  24,405  22%
York Centre  18,870  19%
St. Paul's  14,950  14.7%
Don Valley West  8,735  8.8%
Willowdale  7,180  6.6%
University-Rosedale  6,735  7.1%
Richmond Hill  5,605  5.2%
Aurora-Oak Ridges  5,035  4.8%
Markham-Thornhill  5,030  4.9%

[King of Kensington]

https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/IRG36-Tracking-pre-test-Wave-2-.pdf

I really enjoy these Value Clusters:

NDP have increase, increased! there vote among Core Left (52% +5) and Left Liberals (45% +7). Also interesting is that the NDP has seen increase among Business Liberals (24% +4), which also saw a sharp decline for the PCs (29% -8) and Increase for the OLP (43% +6)

Some fiscally prudent business types having second thoughts about Ford?

[DL]

DL. I agree that these probably won't have any lasting impact, but re the Ottawa Centre guy; the point is less about that local race and more about the image of the party. I doubt it would have made much difference where Lake of Fire guy had run for example.

That's a silly comparison. The issue of whether to have a single secular school board in Ontario has been debated in Ontario for a century and Harden's view is very much within the mainstream. There have been tons of NDP (and other party's) politicians who have proposed merging the Catholic and public school systems - in fact long time MPP Michael Prue ran for leader against Horwath in 2009 partly on a platform of wanting the NDP to support a single school system. This issue also comes up at every NDP convention...and I might add both of the major teacher's unions in Ontario - ETFO and OSSTF officially support de-funding Catholic schools. This is nothing new.

I'm not suggesting that the NDP should push for a Quebec or Newfoundland style single secular school system - just saying it is a very mainstream point of view that commands a lot of support among the general public

[Hatman 🍁]

DL. I agree that these probably won't have any lasting impact, but re the Ottawa Centre guy; the point is less about that local race and more about the image of the party. I doubt it would have made much difference where Lake of Fire guy had run for example.

Quite frankly I think it would help the NDP knowing threre is some ideological diversity on the issue of faith based school boards.

[DL]

Jewish religion (2011 NHS):

Thornhill  40,710  37.1%
Eglinton-Lawrence  24,405  22%
York Centre  18,870  19%
St. Paul's  14,950  14.7%
Don Valley West  8,735  8.8%
Willowdale  7,180  6.6%
University-Rosedale  6,735  7.1%
Richmond Hill  5,605  5.2%
Aurora-Oak Ridges  5,035  4.8%
Markham-Thornhill  5,030  4.9%

Apart from University-Rosedale that is a list the 10 LEAST winnable ridings in Ontario for the NDP...and i might add the Jews who live in University-Rosedale (like yours truly :-)) tend to be very progressive and secular and won't give a hoot about this.

[Tintrlvr]

Innovative Research
PC 36%(+1)
NDP 31% (-)
Liberal 26% (-1)

https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/IRG36-Tracking-pre-test-Wave-2-.pdf

Interesting, I guess we don't have a consensus on polls. I suspect maybe early next week we will but don't now.

Innovative Research has a weird formulation where they ask which party you identify with primarily before they ask your vote intention (self-identification is OLP 30, PC 27, NDP 14). This has the rather obvious effect of upwardly skewing Liberal support and downwardly skewing NDP support, so not sure their polls are worth much.

[King of Kensington]

Apart from University-Rosedale that is a list the 10 LEAST winnable ridings in Ontario for the NDP...and i might add the Jews who live in University-Rosedale (like yours truly :-)) tend to be very progressive and secular and won't give a hoot about this.

The thing is...if you're a progressive Jew the last place you'll want to live is Thornhill!

Basically Toronto's Jewish neighborhoods (except for very tony Forest Hill, or York Mills if that counts) have an Orthodox and/or FSU immigrant character.  

Progressive Jews tend to live in more ethnically mixed areas.

[ON Progressive]

I feel like individual candidates don't swing the vote too much outside their riding unless they do something really awful like the "lake of fire" guy in Alberta. Most people in Canada vote based on the party they want to win, not on local candidates.

[King of Kensington]

I feel like individual candidates don't swing the vote too much outside their riding unless they do something really awful like the "lake of fire" guy in Alberta. Most people in Canada vote based on the party they want to win, not on local candidates.

Lawton is pretty horrible.

[mileslunn]

I think if it is just a few nutty NDP ones, probably won't have much impact, but if a whole wack of them then it could.  Most people understand all parties have their nutbars, its when it becomes endemic in the party it sinks them.  I am thinking of the 2004 federal election when it looked like the Conservatives might win, but lost over bozo eruptions.  I think the NDP's big risk is more platform as while I don't think Ontarioans want to swing sharply to the right, not sure they want to go leftward otherwise.  Lets remember if PCs had chosen Elliott instead of Ford they would probably a have a double digit lead, the main reason they are in trouble is because they have a leader with high negatives.

[DC Al Fine]

DL. I agree that these probably won't have any lasting impact, but re the Ottawa Centre guy; the point is less about that local race and more about the image of the party. I doubt it would have made much difference where Lake of Fire guy had run for example.

That's a silly comparison. The issue of whether to have a single secular school board in Ontario has been debated in Ontario for a century and Harden's view is very much within the mainstream. There have been tons of NDP (and other party's) politicians who have proposed merging the Catholic and public school systems - in fact long time MPP Michael Prue ran for leader against Horwath in 2009 partly on a platform of wanting the NDP to support a single school system. This issue also comes up at every NDP convention...and I might add both of the major teacher's unions in Ontario - ETFO and OSSTF officially support de-funding Catholic schools. This is nothing new.

I'm not suggesting that the NDP should push for a Quebec or Newfoundland style single secular school system - just saying it is a very mainstream point of view that commands a lot of support among the general public

My point wasn't about Ottawa Centre guy. I'm just saying that the effect of candidate issues isnt as local as you indicated.

[ON Progressive]

I feel like individual candidates don't swing the vote too much outside their riding unless they do something really awful like the "lake of fire" guy in Alberta. Most people in Canada vote based on the party they want to win, not on local candidates.

Lawton is pretty horrible.

Definitely agreed. He might be the only one that really has an impact outside his riding, and even then it won't be like the "lake of fire" guy who made a lot of fiscal conservative and social moderal/liberal voters freaked out about Wildrose.

[Hatman 🍁]

Our numbers are out: 36-35-20

[DL]

Our numbers are out: 36-35-20

So I see

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/05/a-volatile-electorate-producing-a-newly-tied-race/

[mileslunn]

Our numbers are out: 36-35-20

Interesting unweighted numbers seem similar to Forum so it seems discrepancy is weighting.  I have unweighted at 38% PC, 34% NDP but considering oversampling of seniors makes perfect sense the final numbers.  Do you have regional breakdowns as that is key.  Also considering yesterday's numbers, was it NDP big lead on May 23rd, but PCs ahead on May 24th (I figure due to volatility you take rolling average not day to day) and also seems Liberals did better on second day.

[Hatman 🍁]

I do have regional numbers, but I think we're going to wait for some more cases before releasing them, as they are quite small (they are really designed for 2000 cases) [read: I'm not confident with the breaks right now]. I might share something on Monday.

[mileslunn]

Numbers sound about right but as mentioned very volatile so might take a few days to sort themselves out.  Debate could also be what makes or breaks it for the parties.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ontario: the last place in the world debates change anything.

[EPG]

Ontario: the last place in the world debates change anything.

I guess it's true anywhere there is little difference between the parties, which is fewer places today than 10-15 years ago the past.

[PeteB]

Ontario: the last place in the world debates change anything.

I think that this time it will make a difference.  Look for the debate to determine these three things:

1. Can Andrea Horwath convince the public that her personal likeability can translate into an effective head of government?  This will literally determine if NDP peaks at 45-50 seats or if it can go above 63 seats and take over.

2. Can Doug Ford convince any fiscal Liberals that he is the better option?  With the current PC vote efficient and holding steady, he can count on about 45-50 seats.  With the large number of fiscally conservative TCTC seats in Toronto, Ottawa and the 905, this could seal the deal for a Premier Ford.

3. Can Kathleen Wynne, as her last act, save the Liberals from total annihilation? A decent contingent of 15-20 seats is possible and, while it would be still a loss, it would also be a huge improvement from the 5 seats that the polls are predicting.

[PeteB]

Worth noting - the latest LISPOP projection:

PC - 64 seats
NDP - 48 seats
Liberal - 12 seats

A brand new set of polls from Ipsos, Pollara and Leger among approximately 3000 respondents released this week with virtually identical results, suggest that popular support levels in Ontario at the moment are NDP 38%, Conservatives 37%, and Liberals 21%. When that gets translated into seats through the LISPOP algorithm, the totals are Conservatives 64, NDP 48, and Liberals 12. This would put the province on the verge of minority government. The Conservatives could only lose one more seat and retain a majority. The discrepancy between vote support and seat totals results from the Conservative vote being more efficiently distributed than the New Democrats, who would waste votes by winning a number of ridings by big margins. All these polls were conducted before the Ford membership buying tape was known, and this Sunday's leadership debate could also have a huge impact upon the election outcome.

[lilTommy]

Really Interesting discussion here

https://tvo.org/video/programs/the-agenda-with-steve-paikin/the-changing-minds-of-ontario-voters

Erin Kelly of Advanced Symbolics on their polling
14 ridings that the NDP needs to win, and can swing the NDP to gov't, only need a 5 point swing of PC voters to the NDP. NONE are named but Bay of Quinte, which is now described as PCvsNDP seat.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't think people are talking enough about Bay of Quinte as a possible NDP pick up. During the federal election, it was a 3-way race until the Liberal surge.