Ontario 2018 election

[ON Progressive]

Question for the Ontarians: why does the NDP seem to do better in rural southwestern Ontario than rural eastern Ontario?

In SW Ontario, there's a lot of manufacturing even in ridings thought of as "rural."

Pretty much this. Using my riding of Oxford for example, there's the Toyota plant in Woodstock and the Cami plant in Ingersoll. Both are very significant employers in those cities. There's quite a bit of other manufacturing as well, but those are the two most notable examples.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Toronto makes almost everything look rural in comparison.

[MaxQue]

Question for the Ontarians: why does the NDP seem to do better in rural southwestern Ontario than rural eastern Ontario?

In SW Ontario, there's a lot of manufacturing even in ridings thought of as "rural."

Pretty much this. Using my riding of Oxford for example, there's the Toyota plant in Woodstock and the Cami plant in Ingersoll. Both are very significant employers in those cities. There's quite a bit of other manufacturing as well, but those are the two most notable examples.

So, like the US Rust Belt?

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, some very interesting results this morning. *taps on nose*

[PeteB]

[

The problem with your logic is that if the Liberals manage to hold on to a seat like Don Valley North (which they won with a 20 point difference), they should  much more easily hold on to Toronto Centre, which they won with 40 points.  There is no logical reason for voters to abandon the Liberals for the NDP in the inner-core ridings and NOT abandon them for the PCs in places like Don Valley North, Willowdale or even Don Valley West. As @mileslunn said, a wave is a wave.
[/quote]

We have to look at local riding characteristics as well as larger swings and polling.
For Don Valley North, there is an inarguable Star Liberal candidate and the PC candidate is weaker and lesser known, that give the OLP a local boost in that the candidates name can help hold some OLP vote on personal popularity. DVN does not have a very strong NDP base, under 20% I believe, so the logical anti-ford vote should migrate to the OLP. I wont argue that the PC polling increase will see their vote increase here but I think the advantage is going to go to the local OLP and Candidate herself. I think the Anti-ford vote will be a stronger motivator then the anti-wynne vote in Toronto specifically. Their vote has been halved and that'why they are pegged for only 5 or so seats.

In Toronto Centre; you do not have an incumbent OLP running either but no "Star" OLP candidate, in fact the NDP nominated I believe about a month earlier or so then the OLP. The NDP has a much strong voter base here and this, the entire core of the DT, is a swing progressive area with a very low conservative voter base. Remember the NDP pulled in over 40% in a By-election and General election (Just under 40) under the old boundaries which included the heavy Liberal Rosedale. The Increase in PC vote is not coming from places like this, and if it is, that PC vote is coming from the OLP, not the NDP.  


[/quote]

Fair enough, although we can argue whether Shelley Caroll in DVN is the RIGHT "star candidate".  However, the math is still inescapable.  Also, contrary to media mantras, not all Liberal voters have NDP as their second choice (just look at Hazel McCallion).

In 2014 Liberals had 52% in DVN, PC had 33% and NDP had 11% (give or take a few decimals.  For the PC to take this over, they only need to hold their vote, and get an 8-12 % swing from the Liberals.  Can they do it?  I don't know, but if they can't and the Liberals hold on to at least 45%, then I am arguing that they sure as heck can hold a 40% advantage in places like Toronto Centre, even with a 10-15% swing to the NDP.  

In other ways, you can't have your cake and eat it too,  Either the OLP vote collapses completely, and both NDP and PC gain seats across TO, or the Liberals hold the inner core and some outer ridings in TO and finish with more seats in TO than the pundits are currently projecting.  You can't have OLP collapsing in Toronto Centre and holding in DVN.  My prediction (subject to Kathleen Wynne's performance in the debate) is still that the Liberals will hold on to at least 7-9 seats in TO, and many of them will be the seats NDP are targeting - we'll see.

[PeteB]

Question for the Ontarians: why does the NDP seem to do better in rural southwestern Ontario than rural eastern Ontario?

In SW Ontario, there's a lot of manufacturing even in ridings thought of as "rural."

Pretty much this. Using my riding of Oxford for example, there's the Toyota plant in Woodstock and the Cami plant in Ingersoll. Both are very significant employers in those cities. There's quite a bit of other manufacturing as well, but those are the two most notable examples.

So, like the US Rust Belt?

Agreed on all the points.  Rural SW is really more akin to Michigan and Eastern ON is more like rural Virginia.  There is a public acceptance of NDP as a viable alternative in the SW which is simply not there in small towns of Eastern ON.  That is why NDP have a real shot at PC ridings in K-W, Sarnia, Brantford, Chatham etc. and very little chance anywhere in E. ON, outside a few Ottawa ridings, Kingston and maybe Peterborough.  I still stand by my prediction that any talk about NDP taking over completely rural ridings even in SW ON (like Elgin Middlesex London) is pure scifi.

[Hatman 🍁]

Just putting this out there:

Fed 2011 Toronto Centre Transposed result...

Lib: 39%
NDP: 36%
Cons: 18%

[MaxQue]

In other ways, you can't have your cake and eat it too,  Either the OLP vote collapses completely, and both NDP and PC gain seats across TO, or the Liberals hold the inner core and some outer ridings in TO and finish with more seats in TO than the pundits are currently projecting.  You can't have OLP collapsing in Toronto Centre and holding in DVN.  My prediction (subject to Kathleen Wynne's performance in the debate) is still that the Liberals will hold on to at least 7-9 seats in TO, and many of them will be the seats NDP are targeting - we'll see.

Yes, you can. Universal swing isn't a thing outside of theory. It assumes every place has similar voters swinging in the same way. See Lib Dems in 2015, where they mostly collapsed except in a few places with popular incumbents.

Also, DVN can have anti-Ford tactical voting for Liberals, which won't be a thing in Toronto Centre (where PC is totally out of running).

[PeteB]

Just putting this out there:

Fed 2011 Toronto Centre Transposed result...

Lib: 39%
NDP: 36%
Cons: 18%

And for good measure - Fed 2011 Don Valley North Transposed result:

...If this riding existed in 2011, the Conservatives would have won with 40.3 per cent of the vote, followed by the Liberals with 37.3 per cent....

[PeteB]

In other ways, you can't have your cake and eat it too,  Either the OLP vote collapses completely, and both NDP and PC gain seats across TO, or the Liberals hold the inner core and some outer ridings in TO and finish with more seats in TO than the pundits are currently projecting.  You can't have OLP collapsing in Toronto Centre and holding in DVN.  My prediction (subject to Kathleen Wynne's performance in the debate) is still that the Liberals will hold on to at least 7-9 seats in TO, and many of them will be the seats NDP are targeting - we'll see.

Yes, you can. Universal swing isn't a thing outside of theory. It assumes every place has similar voters swinging in the same way. See Lib Dems in 2015, where they mostly collapsed except in a few places with popular incumbents.

Also, DVN can have anti-Ford tactical voting for Liberals, which won't be a thing in Toronto Centre (where PC is totally out of running).

1. If there is a universal swing - i.e. Liberal to NDP, let's say by 20%, then the results in Don Valley North would be Lib - 32%, PC-33%, NDP-31% and the PC tightly win DVN.  BTW, it would take more than a 20% swing to allow NDP to win Toronto Centre!

2. Anti-Ford strategic voting - I will give you that, but keep in mind that assuming every Liberal voter will be motivated primarily by this is incorrect.  In some ridings, such as this one, fiscal concerns, religious issues or local matters will trump anti-Ford sentiment.

[mileslunn]

Well, some very interesting results this morning. *taps on nose*

When will they be released?

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, some very interesting results this morning. *taps on nose*

When will they be released?

I dunno. I haven't even seen Frank today.

[_]

Well that Forum poll is trash, oof.

But the momentum is clear, NDP is moving towards a majority.

[King of Kensington]

Just putting this out there:

Fed 2011 Toronto Centre Transposed result...

Lib: 39%
NDP: 36%
Cons: 18%

And this was with Bob Rae, and though Rosedale isn't included in those numbers, it was an election in a riding that included Rosedale which could have changed the dynamic.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, some very interesting results this morning. *taps on nose*

When will they be released?

I dunno. I haven't even seen Frank today.

Update: I would estimate that we'll have something this afternoon.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Innovative Research
PC 36%(+1)
NDP 31% (-)
Liberal 26% (-1)

https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/IRG36-Tracking-pre-test-Wave-2-.pdf

[mileslunn]

Innovative Research
PC 36%(+1)
NDP 31% (-)
Liberal 26% (-1)

https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/IRG36-Tracking-pre-test-Wave-2-.pdf

Interesting, I guess we don't have a consensus on polls. I suspect maybe early next week we will but don't now.

[PeteB]

Innovative Research
PC 36%(+1)
NDP 31% (-)
Liberal 26% (-1)

https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/IRG36-Tracking-pre-test-Wave-2-.pdf

Interesting, I guess we don't have a consensus on polls. I suspect maybe early next week we will but don't now.

I think that the consensus is that the Liberals are crumbling and the NDP is picking up that support, but ALSO that the PC vote is holding steady.  There is also a higher than usual number of undecided voters (15-20%), who could swing many ways.

A lot will depend on the debate and the final days of the campaign.

[mileslunn]

While no numbers yet from either, Mainstreet has tweeted PCs still in lead, but that could be a three day rolling average.  Frank Graves also tweeted much tighter with NDP ahead but within margin of error.  Tweet stated volatility amongst under 35 is big reason.  Off course how that group votes only matters if they actually bother to show up.  Likewise I've seen from other polling strong gender gap amongst millennials with PCs competitive amongst male millennials, but NDP with massive lead amongst female millennials.

[King of Kensington]

Uh oh

http://toronto.citynews.ca/2018/05/25/pc-candidates-accuse-ndp-ignoring-anti-semitism-within-party/

[PeteB]

Uh oh

http://toronto.citynews.ca/2018/05/25/pc-candidates-accuse-ndp-ignoring-anti-semitism-within-party/

NDP are lucky that the media has not picked up any of these allegations yet.  Of course kooks are present in any party (exhibit A: Andrew Lawton, PC candidate for London West), but the problem for the NDP is that:

1. They have a fair amount of candidates who apparently do not understand what teamwork is, and do not consider themselves obligated to follow the party platform or hold some of their more controversial thoughts private, and who certainly do not clear their actions with the campaign and

2. They are essentially "protest" candidates and are just not ready for prime time and cannot understand that what they say in their little circle will reverberate across the province.  Now that the NDP seems to have a shot at government, this behavior will hurt them.  Laura Kaminker's pacifism may be well received in some downtown urban centres, but will probably not help the NDP in rural ridings and smaller towns. Harden's opinions on getting rid of the Catholic school boards may have merit, but will probably ensure that the NDP win very few seats in Eastern Ontario.  Tasleem Riaz's facebook Nazi meme share may be unintentional, but it will kill off any chances of NDP being competitive in many Jewish communities.

Andrea Horwath, I feel your pain !

[lilTommy]

Uh oh

http://toronto.citynews.ca/2018/05/25/pc-candidates-accuse-ndp-ignoring-anti-semitism-within-party/

#fail
I know Tasleem, I've worked with her before, being anti-Semitic is not something I'd call her, since she spent her life in interfaith work. But sharing a Hitler quote (even one that is not even remotely anti-semetic) is still pretty dumb, not hateful just dumb.

Her anti-war comments, anti-Canadian forces comments are, well nothing "explosive" there are huge numbers of people who are pacifist.

THIS from Ford PCs, who have candidates who are outright ant-mulsim, anti-women, anti-LGBT, who don't believe in climate change, who support the rich having acccess to better healthcare, who broke the law on using data... please.

[Hatman 🍁]

these kinds of smears happened in the 2015 Alberta election. They didn't really get any traction back then either.

[DL]

Laura Kaminker's pacifism may be well received in some downtown urban centres, but will probably not help the NDP in rural ridings and smaller towns. Harden's opinions on getting rid of the Catholic school boards may have merit, but will probably ensure that the NDP win very few seats in Eastern Ontario.  Tasleem Riaz's facebook Nazi meme share may be unintentional, but it will kill off any chances of NDP being competitive in many Jewish communities.

Andrea Horwath, I feel your pain !

The Laura Kaminker story was a big stoyr a week ago and through the long weekend...and NDP support just kept going up. No evidence of any impact

Harden's past views on Catholic schools are also irrelevant. He has said he will follow party policy and no one seriously thinks the NDP is suddenly going to eliminate the Catholic school system...in any case in a downtown, secular "urban intelligentsia" riding like Ottawa Centre, I'll bet most people would agree with Harden about merging the school systems into one.

The Jewish vote is only really relevant in three or four ridings (Thornhill, York Centre, Eglinton-Lawrence and St. Paul's) and the NDP could win 100 out of 124 seats and not even come close in any of those four...

[lilTommy]

https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/IRG36-Tracking-pre-test-Wave-2-.pdf

I really enjoy these Value Clusters:

NDP have increase, increased! there vote among Core Left (52% +5) and Left Liberals (45% +7). Also interesting is that the NDP has seen increase among Business Liberals (24% +4), which also saw a sharp decline for the PCs (29% -8) and Increase for the OLP (43% +6)