Ontario 2018 election

[Krago]

(a)  Has anybody here signed up for the Mainstreet Daily Tracking?  Please PM me the Guelph numbers if they post them.

(b)  Does anybody post here?  https://www.electionprediction.org/2018_on/index.php  They seem rather 'optimistic' about Liberal chances.

(c)  A buddy and I are driving around Toronto on Saturday looking at lawn signs.  Is there any restaurant in T.O. that is a known political hangout, like the Gardenia in Strathroy or the Blue Star in Welland?

[Linus Van Pelt]

(c)  A buddy and I are driving around Toronto on Saturday looking at lawn signs.  Is there any restaurant in T.O. that is a known political hangout, like the Gardenia in Strathroy or the Blue Star in Welland?

LOL, what?

A city like Toronto or Ottawa with lots of staffers I get, but what does it even mean for a restaurant in Strathroy to be a known political hangout?

[Krago]

(c)  A buddy and I are driving around Toronto on Saturday looking at lawn signs.  Is there any restaurant in T.O. that is a known political hangout, like the Gardenia in Strathroy or the Blue Star in Welland?

LOL, what?

A city like Toronto or Ottawa with lots of staffers I get, but what does it even mean for a restaurant in Strathroy to be a known political hangout?

http://www.ekospolitics.com/articles/TheStar22Jan2006a.pdf

https://www.gettyimages.ca/event/stephen-harper-rallies-voters-in-ontario-56627831#/conservative-party-leader-stephen-harper-shakes-hands-with-supporters-picture-id56641425

[mileslunn]

Forum has a big shocker,

NDP near 50%
PCs over 30%
Liberals under 15%

While probably not quite that extreme, its looking more and more like an NDP majority.  I will wait for the numbers over the weekend, but at this point seems NDP will have a big enough lead to overcome voter inefficiency.  Doug Ford will likely go down as blowing one of the biggest leads ever.  If this turns out to be true, Doug Ford will likely leave politics for good.  Off course Mainstreet research as well as Symbolic Analytics still suggest a much closer race so lets wait and see how things play out before making definitive predictions.

[Pericles]

They should have picked Christine Elliott.

[mileslunn]

They should have picked Christine Elliott.

Absolutely, well maybe fourth time will be the charm for her.

[King of Kensington]

This is really a fascinating election.

[Pericles]

They should have picked Christine Elliott.

Absolutely, well maybe fourth time will be the charm for her.

Will she win Newmarket-Aurora?

[Linus Van Pelt]

(c)  A buddy and I are driving around Toronto on Saturday looking at lawn signs.  Is there any restaurant in T.O. that is a known political hangout, like the Gardenia in Strathroy or the Blue Star in Welland?

LOL, what?

A city like Toronto or Ottawa with lots of staffers I get, but what does it even mean for a restaurant in Strathroy to be a known political hangout?

http://www.ekospolitics.com/articles/TheStar22Jan2006a.pdf

https://www.gettyimages.ca/event/stephen-harper-rallies-voters-in-ontario-56627831#/conservative-party-leader-stephen-harper-shakes-hands-with-supporters-picture-id56641425

Oh I see what you mean, like a place national politicians visit on the campaign trail.

Have you been to the Gardenia? Is it any good? I wouldn't mind knowing of a good place to eat along the 402.

[136or142]

Forum has a big shocker,

NDP near 50%
PCs over 30%
Liberals under 15%

While probably not quite that extreme, its looking more and more like an NDP majority.  I will wait for the numbers over the weekend, but at this point seems NDP will have a big enough lead to overcome voter inefficiency.  Doug Ford will likely go down as blowing one of the biggest leads ever.  If this turns out to be true, Doug Ford will likely leave politics for good.  Off course Mainstreet research as well as Symbolic Analytics still suggest a much closer race so lets wait and see how things play out before making definitive predictions.

Forum polls suck.

[MaxQue]

It's NDP 47, PC 33, Lib 14

[lilTommy]

[[/quote]

The problem with your logic is that if the Liberals manage to hold on to a seat like Don Valley North (which they won with a 20 point difference), they should  much more easily hold on to Toronto Centre, which they won with 40 points.  There is no logical reason for voters to abandon the Liberals for the NDP in the inner-core ridings and NOT abandon them for the PCs in places like Don Valley North, Willowdale or even Don Valley West. As @mileslunn said, a wave is a wave.
[/quote]

We have to look at local riding characteristics as well as larger swings and polling.
For Don Valley North, there is an inarguable Star Liberal candidate and the PC candidate is weaker and lesser known, that give the OLP a local boost in that the candidates name can help hold some OLP vote on personal popularity. DVN does not have a very strong NDP base, under 20% I believe, so the logical anti-ford vote should migrate to the OLP. I wont argue that the PC polling increase will see their vote increase here but I think the advantage is going to go to the local OLP and Candidate herself. I think the Anti-ford vote will be a stronger motivator then the anti-wynne vote in Toronto specifically. Their vote has been halved and that'why they are pegged for only 5 or so seats.

In Toronto Centre; you do not have an incumbent OLP running either but no "Star" OLP candidate, in fact the NDP nominated I believe about a month earlier or so then the OLP. The NDP has a much strong voter base here and this, the entire core of the DT, is a swing progressive area with a very low conservative voter base. Remember the NDP pulled in over 40% in a By-election and General election (Just under 40) under the old boundaries which included the heavy Liberal Rosedale. The Increase in PC vote is not coming from places like this, and if it is, that PC vote is coming from the OLP, not the NDP.  

[lilTommy]

It's NDP 47, PC 33, Lib 14

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/05/25/ndp-surges-ahead-in-poll.html

Vs the last Poll May 9th

PC - 40%
NDP - 33%
OLP - 22%

PC -7
NDP +14
OLP -8

In terms of personal approval:
Horwath was at 43 per cent approval, 26 per cent disapproval, and 31 per cent didn’t know.

Ford was at 32 per cent approval, 51 per cent disapproval, and 17 per cent didn’t know.

Wynne was at 19 per cent approval, 69 per cent disapproval, and 11 per cent didn’t know.

[lilTommy]

Interesting riding battle here, Niagara West

https://globalnews.ca/news/4230154/ontario-election-niagara-west-candidates-youthful/

The average age of the 4 candidates... 21!
Oosterhoff won a by-election and is 20, the NDP candidate Fric is also 20, the Liberals are the old man in the bunch at 27, and the Greens are running the youngest at 18.

What? I have never seen this! That's. Awesome! So no matter who wins, the MPP will be under 30.

[DC Al Fine]

Question for the Ontarians: why does the NDP seem to do better in rural southwestern Ontario than rural eastern Ontario?

[DL]

I don’t see how the Liberals would salvage even 5 seats if their popular vote actually crashed to 14%. I think they would get ZERO seats if that happened

[lilTommy]

Question for the Ontarians: why does the NDP seem to do better in rural southwestern Ontario than rural eastern Ontario?

I added my two cents to this pages ago, but I will add my thoughts.
SWO, rural is based on different agriculture, its been tobacco, fruits like tomatoes, wine, breeding, etc. More cash crop.
Also in the SW, b/c of the smaller town industries being based around manufacturing this has meant a much stronger union presence in the area. Historically its been mostly British and Loyalist.

Eastern Ontario, from what I remember was much more Dairy farming.
The character of the towns was not based on manufacturing the same way, so there has never a huge union presence.
I also think the linguistic and history of Eastern ontario having a larger French population, which was more historically heavily catholic.

I'm sure there is more...

[DC Al Fine]

Question for the Ontarians: why does the NDP seem to do better in rural southwestern Ontario than rural eastern Ontario?

I added my two cents to this pages ago, but I will add my thoughts.
SWO, rural is based on different agriculture, its been tobacco, fruits like tomatoes, wine, breeding, etc. More cash crop.
Also in the SW, b/c of the smaller town industries being based around manufacturing this has meant a much stronger union presence in the area. Historically its been mostly British and Loyalist.

Eastern Ontario, from what I remember was much more Dairy farming.
The character of the towns was not based on manufacturing the same way, so there has never a huge union presence.
I also think the linguistic and history of Eastern ontario having a larger French population, which was more historically heavily catholic.

I'm sure there is more...

Interesting. I was aware of the Francophone issue, but that wouldn't have explained the Anglo areas. Thanks for the info.

[mileslunn]

Also Forum poll is odd than unweighted numbers are 342 PC, 307 NDP, 143 Liberal, 46 Green, 16 other parties so seems like massive re-weighting to me.  Not saying NDP isn't ahead, but using just raw numbers it is 40% PC, 36% NDP 16.7% Liberal so going from that to 47% NDP, 33% PC, and 14% Liberal asides from Liberal numbers seems to be a stretch.  Ekos apparently shows NDP with big lead so look forward to seeing theirs.  Mainstreet stated PCs still ahead although tightening.  Innovative is supposed to come out later today as well.

[adma]

I don’t see how the Liberals would salvage even 5 seats if their popular vote actually crashed to 14%. I think they would get ZERO seats if that happened

A little like the Alberta New Democrats in 1993?

[lilTommy]

Also Forum poll is odd than unweighted numbers are 342 PC, 307 NDP, 143 Liberal, 46 Green, 16 other parties so seems like massive re-weighting to me.  Not saying NDP isn't ahead, but using just raw numbers it is 40% PC, 36% NDP 16.7% Liberal so going from that to 47% NDP, 33% PC, and 14% Liberal asides from Liberal numbers seems to be a stretch.  Ekos apparently shows NDP with big lead so look forward to seeing theirs.  Mainstreet stated PCs still ahead although tightening.  Innovative is supposed to come out later today as well.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/960e2f63-dc00-4efa-be0a-f6b00f99ce88Horserace%20Mid-Campaign.pdf

Seat Estimates (always funny) - small same no?
NDP - 79!
PC - 40
OLP - 5

NDP lead EVERY region? 41% East, 44% 416 & 905, 57%! SW, 45% North
NDP lead EVERY age group BUT 65+, and only trail by 2 40% PC vs 38% NDP), and both Male (44%) and Female (50%)

[ON Progressive]

Also Forum poll is odd than unweighted numbers are 342 PC, 307 NDP, 143 Liberal, 46 Green, 16 other parties so seems like massive re-weighting to me.  Not saying NDP isn't ahead, but using just raw numbers it is 40% PC, 36% NDP 16.7% Liberal so going from that to 47% NDP, 33% PC, and 14% Liberal asides from Liberal numbers seems to be a stretch.  Ekos apparently shows NDP with big lead so look forward to seeing theirs.  Mainstreet stated PCs still ahead although tightening.  Innovative is supposed to come out later today as well.

Yeah, this poll is trash.

[Hatman 🍁]

lol Forum.

Well, off to work soon. Can't wait to see what our numbers say!

[King of Kensington]

Question for the Ontarians: why does the NDP seem to do better in rural southwestern Ontario than rural eastern Ontario?

In SW Ontario, there's a lot of manufacturing even in ridings thought of as "rural."

[King of Kensington]

It would be kinda hilarious to see the NDP sweep SW Ontario and the PCs sweep Scarborough.

So...how about that?