Ontario 2018 election

[lilTommy]

It also shows the NDP is behind the PCs only 43-40 in central ON. As someone who grew up in Barrie the NDP being that close in the region seems weird.

I also grew up in the Barrie area. I think if the NDP does sweep all over Ontario, Simcoe County still stays blue. The NDP may come close but I don't see either Barrie ridings going orange. Look at what happened in the 2015 federal election - Red swept all over Ontario but Simcoe stayed Tory blue. I expect the same to happen in the Ontario election.

Isn't Barrie more and more detached from Simcoe, through?

Barrie is the centre of Simcoe County.

I'm aware, I have family in Angus. My point is than Barrie and the rest of the county voting patterns are diverging.

I "Think" your right, you only need to take a look at 2014 where the Liberals won Barrie. I think as Barrie grows more and diversifies in population, particularly ethnic mix. As it grows as a commuter city, the city will look more like say York Region, swinging between the Liberals and PCs/CONs. But Redistribution has hurt that, It's split the city in two and added large areas of rural townships, so they both are much more PC seats from what I can see.

Barrie-Innisfil; mostly urban Barrie, say 60/40. Innisfil represents only 36000 people, Looking at 2014, the Liberals didn't do that bad here, Innisfil was not a PC sweep at all compared to the rest of Simcoe.

Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte: again mostly urban, about 60/40 again. Springwater is about 20000 and only half of Oro-Medonte is in this riding, so say 10000 of the 20000 in that township. Springwater and Oro-Medonte look to be much more PC heavy.

http://www.election-atlas.ca/ont/

Given that the NDP had a very highly publicized and well attended event in Barrie/Simcoe last week, the party is at least taking this area somewhat seriously as a target. From CityTv last night, it was noted Andrea has not yet been to an NDP held seat? (which is hugely telling if that's the case!)

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP is at 30% in Eastern Ontario if the Ipsos poll is correct.  Would that mean anything beyond Ottawa Centre and Kingston or would it just result in a lot of wasted votes?

I actually think they will get closer to 25 percent, but that's basically true. Maybe Ottawa-Vanier and Peterborough-Kawartha if they surge further but not right now.

Bay of Quinte is another possibility. Though I'd consider it and Peterborough to be in "Central Ontario".

[DL]

From CityTv last night, it was noted Andrea has not yet been to an NDP held seat? (which is hugely telling if that's the case!)

That's not quite true. Andrea was in NDP held Kenora last week

[King of Kensington]

Bay of Quinte is another possibility. Though I'd consider it and Peterborough to be in "Central Ontario".

Central Ontario is the most ill defined region in Ontario.

[lilTommy]

From CityTv last night, it was noted Andrea has not yet been to an NDP held seat? (which is hugely telling if that's the case!)

That's not quite true. Andrea was in NDP held Kenora last week

... I was skeptical of that statement. But Kenora-Rainy River is a newly re-distributed?, I wonder if they did not consider that and NDP seat?
Anyway, She's been in Brampton as well, a lot. And was in Hamilton to release the platform. I think it's more accurate to say Horwath has visited MOSTLY non-ndp ridings.

[DabbingSanta]

Given how he's a yellow "L-ON", I think we're looking at pot/kettle/black re DabbingSanta's judgment of "radical".

If you think London-Fanshawe is the only riding the NDP is capable of winning in 'your backyard', you need to stop posting in this thread, because you're delusional.

The far left's "tolerance" is showing in full force.  

London North Centre has been steady Liberal for decades, minus a brief Conservative blip in 2011. NDP support is confined to EOA, south of Oxford, the Grenfell area, and Proudfoot. Old North, which was strong Liberal will go Conservative, not NDP. Masonville, Stoneybrook, and Northridge will be Conservative. I don't believe my district is trending NDP as shown on the Laurier site. Even there, the PCs are still winning in seats, where it counts.

I concede that I totally ignored London West when I made that backyard statement. I literally meant my backyard, not all of the London region.

LISPOP May 22 - 69 PC, 39 NDP, 16 Lib.
http://lispop.ca/seat-projection/provincial

[DabbingSanta]

Also worth mentioning Susan Truppe won my riding in 2011 as the federal candidate. She's the only conservative to pull it off. She lost in 2015, but that was expected.

[ON Progressive]

Given how he's a yellow "L-ON", I think we're looking at pot/kettle/black re DabbingSanta's judgment of "radical".

If you think London-Fanshawe is the only riding the NDP is capable of winning in 'your backyard', you need to stop posting in this thread, because you're delusional.

The far left's "tolerance" is showing in full force.  

London North Centre has been steady Liberal for decades, minus a brief Conservative blip in 2011. NDP support is confined to EOA, south of Oxford, the Grenfell area, and Proudfoot. Old North, which was strong Liberal will go Conservative, not NDP. Masonville, Stoneybrook, and Northridge will be Conservative. I don't believe my district is trending NDP as shown on the Laurier site. Even there, the PCs are still winning in seats, where it counts.

I concede that I totally ignored London West when I made that backyard statement. I literally meant my backyard, not all of the London region.

LISPOP May 22 - 69 PC, 39 NDP, 16 Lib.
http://lispop.ca/seat-projection/provincial

London North Centre only went OLP by 6% in 2014, and the NDP are almost certainly going to do better than 2014 provincewide, let alone in Southwestern Ontario. It's ridiculous to rule out the NDP's chances of winning a riding they got 30% of the vote in 4 years ago, especially since they are going to do better this year in all likelihood.

[lilTommy]

Given how he's a yellow "L-ON", I think we're looking at pot/kettle/black re DabbingSanta's judgment of "radical".

If you think London-Fanshawe is the only riding the NDP is capable of winning in 'your backyard', you need to stop posting in this thread, because you're delusional.

The far left's "tolerance" is showing in full force.  

London North Centre has been steady Liberal for decades, minus a brief Conservative blip in 2011. NDP support is confined to EOA, south of Oxford, the Grenfell area, and Proudfoot. Old North, which was strong Liberal will go Conservative, not NDP. Masonville, Stoneybrook, and Northridge will be Conservative. I don't believe my district is trending NDP as shown on the Laurier site. Even there, the PCs are still winning in seats, where it counts.

I concede that I totally ignored London West when I made that backyard statement. I literally meant my backyard, not all of the London region.

LISPOP May 22 - 69 PC, 39 NDP, 16 Lib.
http://lispop.ca/seat-projection/provincial

I think, since this is your riding, you might have a better idea. But London North Centre has seen the NDP vote increase from 2007 at 16% to 2014 where the vote was 30%. I agree, its figuring out where the Liberal vote will go in certain areas. If we go back to the Old pre-95 districts, London North was a very solid PC seat, even staying PC in 90 (mostly north of Oxford west of Highbury).

You might have answered this, but the Liberals won almost all the polls west of Adelaide, where do you think this vote will migrate to?  

[DC Al Fine]

I did a brief review of other elections where there was an NDP surge (NS-09, Fed-11, AB-15). There are two common threads with the polls:

1) There weren't any major setbacks in the polls. Surges either ran up to election day or plateaued.

2) The NDP underperformed the last polls before the election by a decent amount.

Based on the above I suggest that the Tories would win if the election was held today but that the NDP will likely continue surging and that the NDP will likely win. Ford and Wynne need to put the brakes on NDP momentum right now...

Horwath is against beer in grocery stores isn't she? Maybe they could try that

[DabbingSanta]

Given how he's a yellow "L-ON", I think we're looking at pot/kettle/black re DabbingSanta's judgment of "radical".

If you think London-Fanshawe is the only riding the NDP is capable of winning in 'your backyard', you need to stop posting in this thread, because you're delusional.

The far left's "tolerance" is showing in full force.  

London North Centre has been steady Liberal for decades, minus a brief Conservative blip in 2011. NDP support is confined to EOA, south of Oxford, the Grenfell area, and Proudfoot. Old North, which was strong Liberal will go Conservative, not NDP. Masonville, Stoneybrook, and Northridge will be Conservative. I don't believe my district is trending NDP as shown on the Laurier site. Even there, the PCs are still winning in seats, where it counts.

I concede that I totally ignored London West when I made that backyard statement. I literally meant my backyard, not all of the London region.

LISPOP May 22 - 69 PC, 39 NDP, 16 Lib.
http://lispop.ca/seat-projection/provincial

I think, since this is your riding, you might have a better idea. But London North Centre has seen the NDP vote increase from 2007 at 16% to 2014 where the vote was 30%. I agree, its figuring out where the Liberal vote will go in certain areas. If we go back to the Old pre-95 districts, London North was a very solid PC seat, even staying PC in 90 (mostly north of Oxford west of Highbury).

You might have answered this, but the Liberals won almost all the polls west of Adelaide, where do you think this vote will migrate to?  

I believe the Old North vote will go conservative, at least North of Oxford. These are wealthy people which will not be hurt by the Ford platform.

[DabbingSanta]

Given how he's a yellow "L-ON", I think we're looking at pot/kettle/black re DabbingSanta's judgment of "radical".

If you think London-Fanshawe is the only riding the NDP is capable of winning in 'your backyard', you need to stop posting in this thread, because you're delusional.

The far left's "tolerance" is showing in full force.  

London North Centre has been steady Liberal for decades, minus a brief Conservative blip in 2011. NDP support is confined to EOA, south of Oxford, the Grenfell area, and Proudfoot. Old North, which was strong Liberal will go Conservative, not NDP. Masonville, Stoneybrook, and Northridge will be Conservative. I don't believe my district is trending NDP as shown on the Laurier site. Even there, the PCs are still winning in seats, where it counts.

I concede that I totally ignored London West when I made that backyard statement. I literally meant my backyard, not all of the London region.

LISPOP May 22 - 69 PC, 39 NDP, 16 Lib.
http://lispop.ca/seat-projection/provincial

London North Centre only went OLP by 6% in 2014, and the NDP are almost certainly going to do better than 2014 provincewide, let alone in Southwestern Ontario. It's ridiculous to rule out the NDP's chances of winning a riding they got 30% of the vote in 4 years ago, especially since they are going to do better this year in all likelihood.

We'll have to see how the working class areas vote, and how many liberals switch over to PC versus NDP. The liberals won in primarily rich areas, and I believe many would rather vote conservative than NDP.  Our candidate is also very moderate, at least compared to Ford. I think you'll be surprised

[Hatman 🍁]

Those Liberals east of Wonderland Rd will totally vote PC just like they did west of Wonderland Rd... oh wait...

[Hatman 🍁]

To be fair, the area east of Wonderland Rd is quite a bit more wealthy. Still though, many of the wealthier parts of London West still voted NDP.

[DabbingSanta]

Those Liberals east of Wonderland Rd will totally vote PC just like they did west of Wonderland Rd... oh wait...

Peggy Satler is a big name in our area.

[lilTommy]

To be fair, the area east of Wonderland Rd is quite a bit more wealthy. Still though, many of the wealthier parts of London West still voted NDP.

That's the rub here, "wealthy" does not always equate to PC voter, London West is a good example of that. The NDP galvanized the anti-Liberal voter; in SW This is happening again. Multiple polls are showing the NDP leading in the SW.
Now, $200K+ wealthy, that might be a PC voter... but not always so.  

Also, I think it would be safe to assume voters West of Adelaide and South of Huron/Sarnia, they will swing NDP.

[lilTommy]

To be fair, the area east of Wonderland Rd is quite a bit more wealthy. Still though, many of the wealthier parts of London West still voted NDP.

That's the rub here, "wealthy" does not always equate to PC voter, London West is a good example of that. The NDP galvanized the anti-Liberal voter; in SW This is happening again. Multiple polls are showing the NDP leading in the SW.
Now, $200K+ wealthy, that might be a PC voter... but not always so.  

Also, I think it would be safe to assume voters West of Adelaide and South of Huron/Sarnia, they will swing NDP.
Peggy Satler's name helped win the riding over and hold it in 2014, now I think the overall NDP momentum will see her vote increase and the NDP win more seats in SWO like London North Centre.

[King of Kensington]

Also Ford underperforms among the wealthy compared to a more generic PC leader.

[PeteB]

I am going to be a contrarian to the NDP predictions.  I carefully looked at all the seat projections and, even with the recent NDP surge, PCs are comfortably winning about 50-55 seats.  That means they only need about 10 seats from a pool of about 40 undecided seats, to have a majority. 


Even if the PCs are at 34-35%, with Liberal-NDP splits, they could win a majority.  Compared to PC and even the Liberals, the NDP vote is VERY inefficient (except in the North).  Let me explain by focusing at the regional realities of NDP numbers.

In the 416 area, they will come second in most ridings, but may only win 3-7 seats (Danforth, and Parkdale High Park are the only certain ones).  They may win Humber River-Blackcreek, Davenport, York South Weston and perhaps Beaches East York and one of the Scarborough seats, but that is it.  Worse, they could split the anti-PC vote in a number of inner-city ridings to allow PC wins (Willowdale, Don Valley East, Don Valley North and several Scarborough seats are at risk).  This is important because if PCs manage to add 5-6 seats in the 416 area, they will almost certainly have a majority.

In the 905, they will do incredibly well in Hamilton and Peel (Brampton and Mississauga), where even a clean sweep is possible, but will be completely shut out of York, Halton and Simcoe.  Depending on how they do in Durham (i.e. whether they win any seats besides Oshawa), NDP will have at best 12-15 seats in the 905.

In the East, even with polling at 30%, there are no certain seats for the NDP.  Kingston and the Islands seems the most likely, closely followed by Ottawa Centre, but Kingston is a university town and the liberals could still win, while Yasir Naqvi, in Ottawa Centre, is a likely future Liberal leader and may survive the challenge.  Other Ottawa ridings no NOT look promising (including Ottawa South) and the only possible gain for the NDP is the bellwether riding of Peterborough.  So only 1-3 seats in the East.

The North is one region where the NDP will do very well.  They will win between 8 and 11 of the 14 seats. The three central North PC seats will elude them, and I suspect the Liberals will keep at least one of their Thunder Bay MPPs, but the rest is fair game for the NDP.

Finally, Southwest is a mixed bag.  NDP is incredibly strong in places like London, Windsor, KWC and weak everywhere else.  What this means is that they will win at least 8 seats and may go as high as 14, but that is their ceiling (SW has 24 seats).

Taken together, these numbers equate to a range of between 32 and 50 seats.  If the Liberals are reduced to 10-15 seats, as seems very likely, that means a PC government.

[King of Kensington]

Your skepticism is well taken.  The PCs have a clearer path to victory than the NDP right now, in my opinion.

905 beyond Brampton/Malton/Oshawa is tough.  Any residual Ford popularity in Scarborough hurts the NDP too (I think every seat in Scarborough except Agincourt is potentially winnable but Ford throws a monkey wrench into that).

And SW Ontario is not ripe for a "Rae '90" type result where vote-splitting on the right allowed them to win in some crazy places  They may drive the Liberals out of the cities but they may not end up defeating any PC MPPs at all.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The result last time was Lib 38.7, PC 31.2, NDP 23.7. In polling terms this translates as 39, 31 and 24. If we assume - for the sake of argument - that the Ipsos poll is reflected on election day then the Liberals would be down 16pts, the PCs up 5pts and the NDP up 13pts. These changes won't be uniform - when there is general movement of this sort then parties typically gain most where they have the most to gain. For the party losing shedloads of votes its a bit more complex - typically a combination of losing most where they have the most to lose plus total collapse in certain hitherto middling performing seats. This would be very much one of those 'all that is solid melts into air' electoral situations in which, frankly, seat-by-seat projections are worth approximately as much the Venezuelan bolivar...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Also Ford underperforms among the wealthy compared to a more generic PC leader.

Yeah but so did Hudak so that's factored in somewhat.

[King of Kensington]

The result last time was Lib 38.7, PC 31.2, NDP 23.7. In polling terms this translates as 39, 31 and 24. If we assume - for the sake of argument - that the Ipsos poll is reflected on election day then the Liberals would be down 16pts, the PCs up 5pts and the NDP up 13pts. These changes won't be uniform - when there is general movement of this sort then parties typically gain most where they have the most to gain. For the party losing shedloads of votes its a bit more complex - typically a combination of losing most where they have the most to lose plus total collapse in certain hitherto middling performing seats. This would be very much one of those 'all that is solid melts into air' electoral situations in which, frankly, seat-by-seat projections are worth approximately as much the Venezuelan bolivar...

It would have been interesting to seen people's predictions for Ontario in 1990, or the 1993 federal election.

[lilTommy]

The NDP does have a more difficult path to victory, given the historical vote since 95. But lets look at the momentum vote shift:

Southwest:
        2014    2018(Ipsos)  Change
NDP - 30% -   43% -         +13
PC -   34% -   35% -         +1
OLP - 28% -   15% -         -13
This moves, with some certainty, PC held seats to the NDP as well as eliminates all OLP seats in the SW.

Toronto:
        2014    2018(Ipsos)   Change
NDP - 22% -  34%  -          +12
PC -   23% -  37%  -          +14
OLP - 49% -  27%  -          -22
Dismal for the OLP, lucky if they hold on to 3-4 seats, NDP will be lucky 8-10 and the PCs with 11-14. The city would be very divided, PCs holding almost all the Etobicoke/North York/Scarborough, the NDP holding the Toronto/East York/York seats. The 2014 numbers don't reflect the Ford effect, so I think that makes this interesting since the NDP were the second party in 3-4 of those suburban seats, not the PCs, but those same seats are lean PC right now.

905
       2014    2018(Ipsos)   Change
NDP - 21% -  36%  -          +15
PC -   31% -  35%  -          +4
OLP - 40% -  27%  -          -13
The 905 is I think were the high NDP numbers will mean PC seats, The NDP can realistically target all 5 Brampton seats (more like 4 of 5), 2 in Mississauga and 4 of 5 in Durham. The rest, including all in York region are likely to go PC, I can't even think of any seat that will stay Liberal?

I think an idea of where the NDP can win, are rural seats where the combined NDP/OLP vote is above the PCs, if the PCs pulled in 40% or less, It might be a seat to watch. So non-SW seats like Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Simcoe North, Hastings-Lennox and Addington, etc. Not normally NDP leaning seats, but Liberal collapse with most of the vote migrating to NDP, even 5% PC moving to NDP... these areas elected the in the 90's.  

[King of Kensington]

The NDP has to do better in Toronto.  I can't see rural and "rurban" Ontario making up for underperformance in Toronto.

The NDP really had a "perfect storm" situtation that allowed them to win about 10 rural and rurban seats in 1990.  Those conditions aren't there today.  Unless the Trillum Party really takes off or something.