Ontario 2018 election

[Boston Bread]

Registered for the list of the absentee electors, as I moved to America.

I had the choice of voting in 3 ridings. I previously registered in Barrie-Innisfil, but my parents now live in King-Vaughan so I could have registered there too, and I could also vote in Waterloo as I'm a student there.

I chose Waterloo. For any NDP supporter Waterloo is a no-brainer.

I'm now waiting for a ballot to be sent to my Massachusetts address.

[DL]

Without getting into details, the Mainstreet daily tracking does seem to show the PCs gradually dropping day by day over the past few days...maybe all the bad publicity is starting to catch up to them

[DabbingSanta]

Strange that the NDP has a larger lead among 'centrist' voters than 'left wing' voters.

I don't think a lot of voters realize how radical the NDP is. Doug Ford is a man of reason, and the liberal biased media is not going to change my mind nor the minds of others. I'm in a traditionally liberal district, but I can tell the PCs will pick it up easily. London-Fanshawe is the only area in my backyard I see going NDP, which Teresa Armstrong picked up by 27 points in the last election.

[mileslunn]

Strange that the NDP has a larger lead among 'centrist' voters than 'left wing' voters.

I don't think a lot of voters realize how radical the NDP is. Doug Ford is a man of reason, and the liberal biased media is not going to change my mind nor the minds of others. I'm in a traditionally liberal district, but I can tell the PCs will pick it up easily. London-Fanshawe is the only area in my backyard I see going NDP, which Teresa Armstrong picked up by 27 points in the last election.

I don't think a lot at the moment care about that. I think it is more personality not policy driving voting intentions and people like Andrea Horwath but not Doug Ford. Now that could change as we get closer to the election, but it is why I think Christine Elliott would have been a safe choice since she doesn't carry the negative baggage that Ford does. Still got 18 days left and no doubt platform will come under more scrutiny, but what impact is tough to say.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't think a lot of voters realize how radical the NDP is.

The Ontario NDP is about as radical as a cup of weak tea and a digestive biscuit.

[Hatman 🍁]

Strange that the NDP has a larger lead among 'centrist' voters than 'left wing' voters.

I don't think a lot of voters realize how radical the NDP is. Doug Ford is a man of reason, and the liberal biased media is not going to change my mind nor the minds of others. I'm in a traditionally liberal district, but I can tell the PCs will pick it up easily. London-Fanshawe is the only area in my backyard I see going NDP, which Teresa Armstrong picked up by 27 points in the last election.

If you think London-Fanshawe is the only riding the NDP is capable of winning in 'your backyard', you need to stop posting in this thread, because you're delusional.

[Krago]

Strange that the NDP has a larger lead among 'centrist' voters than 'left wing' voters.

I don't think a lot of voters realize how radical the NDP is. Doug Ford is a man of reason, and the liberal biased media is not going to change my mind nor the minds of others. I'm in a traditionally liberal district, but I can tell the PCs will pick it up easily. London-Fanshawe is the only area in my backyard I see going NDP, which Teresa Armstrong picked up by 27 points in the last election.

You see Andrew Lawton winning in London West?  Really?


Really?

[King of Kensington]

I just looked at the SW Ontario ridings in the last election - it went 34% PC, 30% NDP, 28% Liberal.  The most optimistic polling for the NDP seems to suggest the PC vote is holding but the Liberal vote has collapsed entirely to the benefit of the NDP (and that the "Hudak went too far" constituency isn't at all attracted to Ford's populism).  A "universal swing" model would deliver seats like Chatham, Sarnia, Brantford, Cambridge and maybe even Huron-Bruce to the NDP, though there's likely to be an unevenness in that trend.

[Boston Bread]

In the SW I think the NDP wins every riding that went Liberal or NDP in 2014, plus Chatham and Sarnia.

[mileslunn]

As for Horwath being radical, perhaps the most left wing premier in Canada maybe. Or maybe one of the most left wing leaders in the OECD, but considering how few left wing governments they have, that is pretty easy to do, probably the easiest it's been in a long time.

Now, no she is not Canada's version of Chavez or Castro. She does have a lot of Corbyn like policies, but doesn't seem quite as radical.

As for NDP seats in Southwestern Ontario, they were only vulnerable if the PC's were at 45 percent and had stronger splits so as long as the party doesn't do something stupid they should hold them. PC's will probably get a higher share of the popular vote than in 2014, but not likely enough to pick any of them up.

Cambridge and Kitchener South-Hespeler would probably go PC at the moment as PC support is typically about 5 percent above provincewide average, but if NDP continues to surge and PC's fall further that could change.

Brantford-Brant did go Tory federally so as long as they don't fall further they should get over 40 percent there so only if Liberals completely crater or PC's slide further will it go NDP and this is certainlyplausible.

London North Centre: PC's could only win with strong splits so unless there is a strong Liberal rebound and slight PC uptick, I suspect NDP will pick this up.

Kitchener Centre: Will depend on splits as OLP core is stronger in KW region than London, but any of the three parties could win here.

Huron-Bruce: fairly rural and agrarian so only if the NDP is on its way to a majority do they win this.

Chatham-Kent-Leamington and Sarnia-Lamton: certainly possible but PC's need to slide a bit further as they are still probably north of 45 percent in those two at the moment, but at least splits will be pretty much non-existent.

[adma]

Strange that the NDP has a larger lead among 'centrist' voters than 'left wing' voters.

I don't think a lot of voters realize how radical the NDP is. Doug Ford is a man of reason, and the liberal biased media is not going to change my mind nor the minds of others. I'm in a traditionally liberal district, but I can tell the PCs will pick it up easily. London-Fanshawe is the only area in my backyard I see going NDP, which Teresa Armstrong picked up by 27 points in the last election.

You see Andrew Lawton winning in London West?  Really?


Really?

Given how he's a yellow "L-ON", I think we're looking at pot/kettle/black re DabbingSanta's judgment of "radical".

[adma]

Brantford-Brant did go Tory federally so as long as they don't fall further they should get over 40 percent there so only if Liberals completely crater or PC's slide further will it go NDP and this is certainlyplausible.

Though I'd qualify that case federally; what happened was that a weak Liberal/strong NDP circumstance split the vote, and the Con incumbent benefited on one-viable-option grounds.  To some degree that was also the case in Niagara Falls--which is *already* a Con federally-NDP provincially situation.

It was also common in the 1999 provincial election in seats where the NDP got the strategic anti-Harris endorsement but the Liberal got the momentum--and I feel it was a little more complicated than "vote splitting";  in a way, the incumbent Tory candidates got an added boost from voters who couldn't put up with the bickering on the left...

[King of Kensington]

As I suspected, not a "universal swing" in SW Ontario.  The NDP is cleaning up in K-W, London and Windsor (with the Liberal vote collapsing and the PCs down too), but the PCs are actually up about 10 points in the other SW Ont. communities compared to the 2014 Hudak vote.

London, Windsor, Kitchener-Waterloo

NDP  54%
PCs  25%
Liberals  14%

Other communities

PCs  49%
NDP  34%
Liberals  11%

https://twitter.com/Tom_Parkin_/status/998208386603913216

[DL]

The PC already hold every single seat in the south west that is outside of Windsor, London and KW so if there vite is up by ten points there it means they just waste votes winning seats they already have by bigger margins

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Am I right in thinking pretty much all the cities in Ontario Taht aren't Toronto or Ottawa (or Guelph) are basically post-industrial and fairly poor? Windsor, Oshawa, London, Niagara, Hamilton, Barrie etc. This could be totally wrong, I'm just trying to test my assumptions.

[DC Al Fine]

The PC already hold every single seat in the south west that is outside of Windsor, London and KW so if there vite is up by ten points there it means they just waste votes winning seats they already have by bigger margins

Yeah, it looks like all those seats the NDP came semi close in like Chatham and Sarnia are safe from the surge...but otherwise it's not doing them any good. Maybe Cambridge or Brant are in play but that's about it.

Am I right in thinking pretty much all the cities in Ontario Taht aren't Toronto or Ottawa (or Guelph) are basically post-industrial and fairly poor? Windsor, Oshawa, London, Niagara, Hamilton, Barrie etc. This could be totally wrong, I'm just trying to test my assumptions.

Kitchener-Waterloo is a pretty big tech hub I think

[Oryxslayer]

Holy macaroni! New Abacus poll says it’s now a virtual dead heat PCs 35%, NDP 34%, Liberals 24%

It appears to be getting lost in the hype, but the PC 35 number is the exact same one they had previously. So their sample is probably more biased away from the PCs, compared to every other poll, and the rest being captured by the NDP surge.

The regional distinction in the SW also captures the problems facing the NDP here. They need some gains in these small-town populist regions at the expense of the Tories, but the PCs are holding their own and maybe taking a NDP seat or two. This is the prime reason why I suspect even if the NDP win the pop vote, there is still a strong chance of either a PC majority, or a bare minority.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I would suggest perhaps not overanalysing subsamples.

[Hatman 🍁]

Am I right in thinking pretty much all the cities in Ontario Taht aren't Toronto or Ottawa (or Guelph) are basically post-industrial and fairly poor? Windsor, Oshawa, London, Niagara, Hamilton, Barrie etc. This could be totally wrong, I'm just trying to test my assumptions.

Not exactly, and especially not compared to the US.

Some of those cities you listed are far from 'post industrial'. Niagara Falls has always been reliant on tourism (perhaps you're thinking of Niagara Falls, New York?) and Barrie is basically one giant Toronto exurb.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yeah I was thinking of the NY Niagara. And I guess I just have connotations associated with the name "Barry" as a town.

[Krago]

A friend is volunteering in Niagara Centre.  Over one-third of the population (35%) lives in the northern part of the riding (South St. Catharines, Thorold), but the Returning Office and all three advance polling stations are in the southern part (Welland, Port Colborne).

https://voterinformationservice.elections.on.ca/en/election/2-general-election-jun-7-2018/68-niagara-centre?tab=beforeElectionInPerson

It's not partisan, just incompetence.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah I was thinking of the NY Niagara. And I guess I just have connotations associated with the name "Barry" as a town.

The Niagara region in general is industrial/post-industrial. But,yes, Barrie is not much like Barry...

[King of Kensington]

The PC already hold every single seat in the south west that is outside of Windsor, London and KW so if there vite is up by ten points there it means they just waste votes winning seats they already have by bigger margins

True, but it makes it a little harder for the NDP to take PC seats like Chatham and Sarnia.

ETA:  True except for Guelph (I'm assuming they're including Cambridge with K-W) and Brantford.

[adma]

Am I right in thinking pretty much all the cities in Ontario Taht aren't Toronto or Ottawa (or Guelph) are basically post-industrial and fairly poor? Windsor, Oshawa, London, Niagara, Hamilton, Barrie etc. This could be totally wrong, I'm just trying to test my assumptions.

Not exactly, and especially not compared to the US.

Some of those cities you listed are far from 'post industrial'. Niagara Falls has always been reliant on tourism (perhaps you're thinking of Niagara Falls, New York?) and Barrie is basically one giant Toronto exurb.

Though Niagara Falls' form of tourist reliance (as opposed to, say, Niagara-On-The-Lake) feeds a "fairly poor" impression--it's basically a service industry, after all.  (Think of what makes Las Vegas Democratic.)  And if not as blatantly rust-belt as its American sibling, the non-tourist "silent majority" balance of NFOnt's economy is consistent with that of St Kitts, Welland, etc.  It's a big reason why it's presently NDP provincially, after all--and more "organically" so than Waterloo or London West.

Remember that other major cornerstone of the NF economy: power generation, and what it begat.

Oh, and is it just me, or are a lot of us prone these days to saying "post-industrial" when we mean "industrial", or "poor" when we mean "blue collar"?  After all, a lot of these burgs were prone to supporting the NDP long before their industry became "post"; and the Dippers continue to court those who are presently employed in industry, as opposed to casualties of a post-industrial economy...

[King of Kensington]

Canadians can get very nationalistic about "our" side of the Falls.  Ours = shiny and touristy and has the better views, theirs = bleak, post-industrial, Love Canal.

The actual downtown of Niagara Falls Ontario is pretty depressing in fact.  And yeah, the tourist industry pays pretty badly.