TN-SEN: Return of the Bredi

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Vanderbilt will release a poll on Dec. 14. Expecting something like Bredesen +8 and Dean +4 or so.

Are you suggesting that because Vanderbilt's poll said something like Trump +10 when it was really Trump +26?  I'd be surprised if Dean were in the lead, but not really if Bredesen is right now, but I would expect that to fade.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Will this hurt Bresden

http://dailycaller.com/2017/12/08/top-dem-in-tennessee-senate-race-probably-wont-be-for-much-longer/

In 2005 he had some problems covering up harassment cases in his administration. 

[Sestak]

Will this hurt Bresden

http://dailycaller.com/2017/12/08/top-dem-in-tennessee-senate-race-probably-wont-be-for-much-longer/

In 2005 he had some problems covering up harassment cases in his administration. 

If it's true, it could hurt him. But it's Daily Caller so who knows if it is.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Will this hurt Bresden

http://dailycaller.com/2017/12/08/top-dem-in-tennessee-senate-race-probably-wont-be-for-much-longer/

In 2005 he had some problems covering up harassment cases in his administration. 

If it's true, it could hurt him. But it's Daily Caller so who knows if it is.

Yeah like it could have been CNN, ABC, OR THE NEW YORK TIMES.

[Pollster]

I've run a GCS poll of this race and am working on the analysis right now. I'm unfamiliar with Tennessee though and having trouble finding party data - can anybody guide me as to what the likely Dem/Rep/Independent percentage breakdown of the electorate will be?

[libertpaulian]

Perhaps Bredesen will be the Southern Surprise of the midterms and not Doug Jones.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Perhaps Bredesen will be the Southern Surprise of the midterms and not Doug Jones.

Good going:

HOPE SPRINGS ETERNAL. 

[SATW]

I am proud to support Congressman Marsha Blackburn.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2017/12/08/phil-bredesen-us-senate-race-im-not-running-against-donald-trump/936295001/

Interesting article on Bredesen's strategy. Seems like what I would advise him to do, except I'd pledge to serve one term. I think that would play pretty well.

Also, everyone on Atlas seems to have declared the race Safe R from the get-go, but I want to see it unfold a little first, especially with polling. Bredesen is not a fool, and he admitted as much that he wouldn't have run if he thought it was a suicide mission, and he "did [his] homework."

I thought about the same one term thing.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I am proud to support Congressman Marsha Blackburn.

Was unaware the Congressman had a sex change.

She views the term "Congresswoman" as a politically correct misnomer.

[TomC]

I am proud to support Congressman Marsha Blackburn.

Was unaware the Congressman had a sex change.

She views the term "Congresswoman" as a politically correct misnomer.

Yep, she's always gone by "Congressman".

[MT Treasurer]

Vanderbilt will release a poll on Dec. 14. Expecting something like Bredesen +8 and Dean +4 or so.

Are you suggesting that because Vanderbilt's poll said something like Trump +10 when it was really Trump +26?  I'd be surprised if Dean were in the lead, but not really if Bredesen is right now, but I would expect that to fade.

Vanderbilt being a terrible pollster, high Democratic enthusiasm, polling in TN almost always underestimates R strength, Bredesen's name recognition, a lot of Republican-leaning "Independents" being "undecided" right now, Bredesen winning true Independents (not many of them left, though) by a lot, there's a reason why he jumped into the race, etc.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I've run a GCS poll of this race and am working on the analysis right now. I'm unfamiliar with Tennessee though and having trouble finding party data - can anybody guide me as to what the likely Dem/Rep/Independent percentage breakdown of the electorate will be?

Unfortunately, TN hasn't been exit polled since 2008.  Back then, it was a R+1 electorate, but ancestral Democrats might have been more likely to still identify as Democrats.  I checked the 2016 polls for theirs, but they underestimated Trump's margin by an average of 15 points (!) in Tennessee.  ICitizen is the only one with an electorate, and theirs was R+6 (with a topline of Trump +10, when he won by 26).

I did a one question GCS poll of TN in the presidential election, which I could only weight by age and sex (which turned out to only change the results slightly due to an insignificant age gap and the roughly 50:50 ratio of men and women), and it slightly overestimated Trump (Trump +33), but it was the most accurate of any Tennessee poll last cycle.

[Pollster]

Would 45-38-17 (R-D-I) work?

[MAINEiac4434]

I am proud to support Congressman Marsha Blackburn.

Was unaware the Congressman had a sex change.

She views the term "Congresswoman" as a politically correct misnomer.

Yep, she's always gone by "Congressman".

Jesus Christ

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Would 45-38-17 (R-D-I) work?

I would just use that with the caveat of the partisan breakdown, but that is similar to last year's iCitizen poll (which ultimately was too Democratic-friendly, but that could be for a lot of reasons).  Plus, 2018 will likely have a more Democratic electorate than 2016.

[junior chįmp]

Mackler out. GOP majority is finished!

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[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I am proud to support Congressman Marsha Blackburn.

Was unaware the Congressman had a sex change.

She views the term "Congresswoman" as a politically correct misnomer.

LOL

[Holmes]

I liked Mackler. I hope he finds success in some other office. What district does he live in?

[Sumner 1868]

I am proud to support Congressman Marsha Blackburn.

Was unaware the Congressman had a sex change.

She views the term "Congresswoman" as a politically correct misnomer.

Stealing Helen Chenoweth's act?

[Cactus Jack]

Mackler out. GOP majority is finished!

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Good news. I hope he runs for a state senate seat or something. I could see him being a good gubernatorial candidate if he waits a cycle or two.

Anyone know where Mackler lives? If he's in TN-05, he'd be a good bet to run when Cooper retires.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Mackler out. GOP majority is finished!

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Good news. I hope he runs for a state senate seat or something. I could see him being a good gubernatorial candidate if he waits a cycle or two.

Anyone know where Mackler lives? If he's in TN-05, he'd be a good bet to run when Cooper retires.

Mackler is described as a Nashville attorney, so presumably he does live in TN-05.

[Devout Centrist]

I am proud to support Congressman Marsha Blackburn.

Was unaware the Congressman had a sex change.

She views the term "Congresswoman" as a politically correct misnomer.

"""""""""""""""misnomer"""""""""""""""

[Doimper]

It's Gravis, but. . .

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[The Other Castro]

It's Gravis, but. . .

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I'm guessing it'll show Bredesen leading Blackburn, but either leading by a smaller margin or trailing Manning.