Why is everyone assuming Trump will win FL in 2020?

[Bidenworth2020]

I may just be expierencing atlas fatigue, but why?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'm not, I'm rating it as Tilt R for now, but very much in play.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Trended R in 3/4 elections, trended R last year, white boomer retirees heading to the state like locusts, his disapproval rating there is lower than it is in WI/MI/PA/AZ/NV/ME/NH.

He probably carries it in a close election.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

There is really no reason to assuming he'll carry it. It's a pure tossup, like it always has been.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

People are for some reason assuming 2020 will be close. Which is wrong. Trump currently has a negative 20 approval rating and democrats are winning generic ballots by 10 points. And we're not even a year in. Presidents who have low approvals owing to the economy or war can recover. Trump's problems are of his own making. He isn't going to improve, and when the economy turns downward again, he'll be ed.
I would at this point take the over on democrats winning by 10 points in 2020.
Against every democrat, Trump is polling at 39%. He's not winning voters who don't approve of him. Unless democrats split big, they will win 2020 big.

[Panhandle Progressive]

It's a pure tossup, like it always has been.

I believe this is true with two generic candidates, however if Trump is at the top of the ticket in 2020 then Florida should be a given for the Dems leading up to election day.

[VPH]

Just like everybody assumed Hillary would lose Colorado

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

It's a pure tossup, like it always has been.

I believe this is true with two generic candidates, however if Trump is at the top of the ticket in 2020 then Florida should be a given for the Dems leading up to election day.

Do you enjoy being wrong lol? Is it your hobby?

[TheSaint250]

People are assuming that? I haven't seen it.

[AN63093]

People are assuming that? I haven't seen it.

^^

Most maps I've seen have FL as a toss-up.  Even most people that have it colored in would probably admit they only think it leans one way or another.

Maybe I'm reading a different forum than the OP.

[TDAS04]

I'm certainly not.  Conceding 29 electoral votes that Trump won by a point in 2016 seems pretty dumb, and I don't think many actually are. 

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Not sure who is making that assumption. Sure if Donald Trump wins or looses narrowly he probably carries Florida but if he is loosing by 4-5 points nationally then I would have to guess whoever the democratic nominee is carries it.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Well in an 50/50 election Florida is usually tilt R. If Dems are winning Florida they likely won the election already. Florida has a large elderly population, the black turnout fluctuate, protest vote prone, and Hispanics are incredibly wish washy when it comes to voting in the south. But I will say this Trump maybe the first Republican to win Florida statewide without Duval county.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Because he probably will?

[Devils30]

I think Florida may be the tipping point in 2020. Trump won it by 1.2%, a very weak swing from Obama's 0.9 win in 2012. Trump got big gains in north central FL but population growth probably makes this a tossup. I would honestly put Florida higher than PA WI for a Dem in 2020. MI was a fluke and probably goes blue with any investment by the party.

[Xing]

Given Florida's recent history, it probably doesn't make sense to call Florida anything other than a Toss-Up, especially this early out. I think some people are bullish on Trump's odds are because Florida was supposed to be an incredibly tough state for him to win in 2016 because of its demographics. He was able to overcome them that year, and while turnout in the Panhandle could go down in 2020, he has room for growth in the Southern part of the state.

Another reason could be that Trump is probably toast if he loses Florida, since I doubt he'll hold all three of MI/PA/WI while losing Florida. So in a race that comes down to the wire, Trump probably either wins Florida, or loses it by a hair.

[TML]

Election results from 1996 onward indicate that Florida has been won by the Democratic candidate if the national PV margin is D+3 or more, and by the Republican candidate if it is less than that. So, FL would be considered lean R if the national PV margin were about even.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Because most people on Atlas were predicting FL to trend D last year thanks to Puerto Rican immigration.

[Pericles]

It was pretty dumb to think that Florida would be anything other than a tossup/tilt R last election as it ultimately was.

[PragmaticPopulist]

It's always hard to predict Florida's outcome, but I find it hard to see Trump winning it again. If he wins it again, I'd expect the map to look nearly the same as it was in 2016.

He's probably gonna be the first Republican since 1976 to lose Duval County and the first Republican since 1948 to lose Seminole County. I can easily see the D nominee breaking 60% in Orange county as well. The only way I see him offsetting that is by getting an even larger vote share in Volusia, Brevard, Escambria, and Sarasota counties.

[Panhandle Progressive]

It's always hard to predict Florida's outcome, but I find it hard to see Trump winning it again. If he wins it again, I'd expect the map to look nearly the same as it was in 2016.

He's probably gonna be the first Republican since 1976 to lose Duval County and the first Republican since 1948 to lose Seminole County. I can easily see the D nominee breaking 60% in Orange county as well. The only way I see him offsetting that is by getting an even larger vote share in Volusia, Brevard, Escambria, and Sarasota counties.

Seems about right to me. Being the insurgent candidate is great and all, until you have to run as the incumbent. But at this point it might be a miracle if Trump still has a political life in 3 years.

[libertpaulian]

Because it's the most volatile tossup state in the nation, other than OH and NH?

[Fuzzy Bear]

I'm not assuming this, and I'm somebody, am I not?   

Florida's demographic keeps changing.  One thing that hasn't changed is this:  Wealthy retirees and retirees who are living off their 401(k) plans are still moving to Florida to retire, and they will be grateful for the Stock Market performance that Trump has wrought.  (Well, maybe Trump didn't bring that about, but he'll get the credit for it.)

The thing that Democrats have had going for them is the increase in blacks and Hispanics as a part of the electorate.  Even more beneficial for Democrats is that a significant number of the Hispanic influx consists of migrants from Puerto Rico, who are already citizens, and likely to be Democrats.  This Puerto Rican migration is what totallly flipped Orange and Osceola Counties (Orlando Area), once GOP strongholds.  Seminole County (also near Orlando) is close to going Democratic for the same reason; it is barely Republican now; it was once one of the most reliably Republican counties in the state.

There were several counties of note that flipped from Obama to Trump.  Volusia County (Daytona Beach), St. Lucie County (Ft. Pierce-Port St. Lucie), Pinellas County (St. Pete-Clearwater), and Jefferson County (a rural county right next to Leon County, where Tallahassee is).  All of these counties have a significant black population, and all of these counties showed dropoff in black voting.  In addition, these counties have a number of white voters who are not "Dixie" Southerners (Jefferson County excepted) who are not wealthy, who are struggling to stay in the middle class, and  who are receptive to Trump's brand of populism.  These four (4) counties are crucial for the Democrats if they wish to regain FL in their column.  They took FL for granted, and they (as usual) underestimated their GOP opponents.

[Beet]

I'm not assuming this, and I'm somebody, am I not?   

Florida's demographic keeps changing.  One thing that hasn't changed is this:  Wealthy retirees and retirees who are living off their 401(k) plans are still moving to Florida to retire, and they will be grateful for the Stock Market performance that Trump has wrought.  (Well, maybe Trump didn't bring that about, but he'll get the credit for it.)

The thing that Democrats have had going for them is the increase in blacks and Hispanics as a part of the electorate.  Even more beneficial for Democrats is that a significant number of the Hispanic influx consists of migrants from Puerto Rico, who are already citizens, and likely to be Democrats.  This Puerto Rican migration is what totallly flipped Orange and Osceola Counties (Orlando Area), once GOP strongholds.  Seminole County (also near Orlando) is close to going Democratic for the same reason; it is barely Republican now; it was once one of the most reliably Republican counties in the state.

There were several counties of note that flipped from Obama to Trump.  Volusia County (Daytona Beach), St. Lucie County (Ft. Pierce-Port St. Lucie), Pinellas County (St. Pete-Clearwater), and Jefferson County (a rural county right next to Leon County, where Tallahassee is).  All of these counties have a significant black population, and all of these counties showed dropoff in black voting.  In addition, these counties have a number of white voters who are not "Dixie" Southerners (Jefferson County excepted) who are not wealthy, who are struggling to stay in the middle class, and  who are receptive to Trump's brand of populism.  These four (4) counties are crucial for the Democrats if they wish to regain FL in their column.  They took FL for granted, and they (as usual) underestimated their GOP opponents.

The stock market was up 44% under Obama's second term and Clinton got nothing for it.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I'm not assuming this, and I'm somebody, am I not?   

Florida's demographic keeps changing.  One thing that hasn't changed is this:  Wealthy retirees and retirees who are living off their 401(k) plans are still moving to Florida to retire, and they will be grateful for the Stock Market performance that Trump has wrought.  (Well, maybe Trump didn't bring that about, but he'll get the credit for it.)

The thing that Democrats have had going for them is the increase in blacks and Hispanics as a part of the electorate.  Even more beneficial for Democrats is that a significant number of the Hispanic influx consists of migrants from Puerto Rico, who are already citizens, and likely to be Democrats.  This Puerto Rican migration is what totallly flipped Orange and Osceola Counties (Orlando Area), once GOP strongholds.  Seminole County (also near Orlando) is close to going Democratic for the same reason; it is barely Republican now; it was once one of the most reliably Republican counties in the state.

There were several counties of note that flipped from Obama to Trump.  Volusia County (Daytona Beach), St. Lucie County (Ft. Pierce-Port St. Lucie), Pinellas County (St. Pete-Clearwater), and Jefferson County (a rural county right next to Leon County, where Tallahassee is).  All of these counties have a significant black population, and all of these counties showed dropoff in black voting.  In addition, these counties have a number of white voters who are not "Dixie" Southerners (Jefferson County excepted) who are not wealthy, who are struggling to stay in the middle class, and  who are receptive to Trump's brand of populism.  These four (4) counties are crucial for the Democrats if they wish to regain FL in their column.  They took FL for granted, and they (as usual) underestimated their GOP opponents.

The stock market was up 44% under Obama's second term and Clinton got nothing for it.

Obama got these folks to where they recouped their losses.  Trump's giving them the gravy.  It's not fair, but . . .