Why is everyone assuming Trump will win FL in 2020?

[Burke Bro]

Well in an 50/50 election Florida is usually tilt R. If Dems are winning Florida they likely won the election already.

Exactly my thoughts.

[Sir Mohamed]

I haven't seen a poster arguing that Trump is the overall favorite to win FL in 2020. And I think most, including political commentators in the media, agree that FL will be a pure toss-up, just as it was in the past cycles. In my thread, I was raising the question that Cuban Americans may support him or the GOP stronger than in 2016 because of the harsher Cuba policy. As we saw in 2016, many Cuban Americans were embarrassed by Trump, but gave Rubio a solid win in the senate race. Does that alter the 2020 prediction? Doubtful in my judgement. I think much will depend on turnout and mobilization.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Its full of old people. Itll be safe Trump if the dems elect somebody like Bernie or Pocahontas

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Not sure who is making that assumption. Sure if Donald Trump wins or looses narrowly he probably carries Florida but if he is loosing by 4-5 points nationally then I would have to guess whoever the democratic nominee is carries it.

[Young Moderate Republican]

It really depends on if Trump keeps his support. If he does, then it's a pretty reasonable assumption that he will. Hillary did what she would normally have needed to do in the Democratic counties in order to win Florida and even won Hillsborough. The broke the latino meter like all of the analysis said she needed to in order to win. The only problem is that Trump broke the white meter in most of the suburban/exurban areas and it was more than enough to offset her latino surge. The problem for Democrats is that the latino surge is their only path to victory in Florida. Who wins will likely depend on whether or not Trump drives his base to the polls again in the same number. There's a solid chance he will and a solid chance he won't. At this point, any analysis that puts Florida at anything other than a 50-50 proposition is thinking rather wishfully. Some people point out approval ratings, but I consider it hogwash. If Trump's approval ratings were going to be what cost him Florida, he would have lost in 2016 when his favorability ratings were no better than his approval rating is now.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

The only way I see him offsetting that is by getting an even larger vote share in Volusia, Brevard, Escambria, and Sarasota counties.

He is probably going to be the 1st republican since 1944 to lose Sarasota County honestly.  It will probably finally flip to the Democrats in 2020.

[Rookie Yinzer]

The only way I see him offsetting that is by getting an even larger vote share in Volusia, Brevard, Escambria, and Sarasota counties.

He is probably going to be the 1st republican since 1944 to lose Sarasota County honestly.  It will probably finally flip to the Democrats in 2020.

How is he losing this county? He had the largest vote share there since Bush 41 and the increased third party support was voters defecting from Clinton.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The only way I see him offsetting that is by getting an even larger vote share in Volusia, Brevard, Escambria, and Sarasota counties.

He is probably going to be the 1st republican since 1944 to lose Sarasota County honestly.  It will probably finally flip to the Democrats in 2020.

why so?

[Mr. Smith]

It really depends on if Trump keeps his support. If he does, then it's a pretty reasonable assumption that he will. Hillary did what she would normally have needed to do in the Democratic counties in order to win Florida and even won Hillsborough. The broke the latino meter like all of the analysis said she needed to in order to win. The only problem is that Trump broke the white meter in most of the suburban/exurban areas and it was more than enough to offset her latino surge. The problem for Democrats is that the latino surge is their only path to victory in Florida. Who wins will likely depend on whether or not Trump drives his base to the polls again in the same number. There's a solid chance he will and a solid chance he won't. At this point, any analysis that puts Florida at anything other than a 50-50 proposition is thinking rather wishfully. Some people point out approval ratings, but I consider it hogwash. If Trump's approval ratings were going to be what cost him Florida, he would have lost in 2016 when his favorability ratings were no better than his approval rating is now.

Except Hillary's favorability wasn't good either.

The game's different with someone with better ratings.