ME-02: Poliquin in denial

[I’m not Stu]

An NRCC report in Maine indicates Bruce Poliquin is fairly unpopular. Would this be a good seat for Democrats to target?

[PragmaticPopulist]

Ds would be foolish not to target ME-02. Northern Maine is one of the most elastic areas of the country, and Poliquin wasn't a particularly strong incumbent to begin with.

[Ebsy]

I'd like to see said report if it is at all possible?

[I’m not Stu]

R: Maine. A friend of mine at NRCC says Poliquin is in real trouble and that Trump is not popular in the 2nd district.

I found it.

[MT Treasurer]

R: Maine. A friend of mine at NRCC says Poliquin is in real trouble and that Trump is not popular in the 2nd district.

I found it.

Anyway, Poliquin is obviously vulnerable and the Democrats have recruited a few good candidates there (better than Emily Cain anyway). He isn't the best fit for the district, but I'd rate it Lean R for now (much closer to Tossup than Likely R though). A Democratic pick-up wouldn't surprise me at all.

[Maxwell]

Poliquin's seat is one of those seats that Dems NEED to pick-up if they have ANY shot at winning the house.

[henster]

It's crazy some hedge fund manager from NYC is holding down one of the most WWC districts in the country. Tells you how hard it is to read these voters.

[I’m not Stu]

I call this race tilt R for now.

[Nyvin]

Poliquin's seat is one of those seats that Dems NEED to pick-up if they have ANY shot at winning the house.

Not really.   It's very rural and extremely white.   I wouldn't call this a prime pickup opportunity. 

[Young Conservative]

Link.

[I’m not Stu]

Poliquin's seat is one of those seats that Dems NEED to pick-up if they have ANY shot at winning the house.

Not really.   It's very rural and extremely white.   I wouldn't call this a prime pickup opportunity.  

It's only R+2. It takes at least 24 seats to take the House. Long shot bids are necessary. An NRCC report indicates he's not too popular. Go after seats with a fairly even PVI, it can be successful with the right candidate. Maybe go after SC-5 (which was surprisingly competitive) and and AK-AL (perhaps with Berkowitz) as well.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Poliquin's seat is one of those seats that Dems NEED to pick-up if they have ANY shot at winning the house.

Not really.   It's very rural and extremely white.   I wouldn't call this a prime pickup opportunity. 

This is... a very simplistic analysis of the ME-2 that doesn't really comport with political reality. Given that it's an r+2, EC was an awful fit for the district, and 2014 and 2016 were awful Democratic years - this strikes me as an *ideal* pickup opportunity.

[I’m not Stu]

Jared Golden seems to be a good candidate. Susan Collins is a popular Senator.

[GlobeSoc]

Is Troy Jackson still interested in running? The man is practically designed for this particular district.

No but Jared Golden just announced and be fits it well. Kinda surprsied the DCCC got their act together here after Emily Cain

"[Golden] then worked in Congress for U.S. Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, as part of the staff of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee"

...Gross. He can probably win, sure, but if Bruce Poliquin is really that vulnerable, it'd be nice if the Democrats would run someone who isn't an ex-staffer for a GOP Senator.

Sadly, she's popular enough and has enough of a 'muh centrism' reputation that that is a plus in both the primary and general

[Horsemask]

I hope Golden wipes the floor with him, Poliquin is slimy.

[Figueira]

R: Maine. A friend of mine at NRCC says Poliquin is in real trouble and that Trump is not popular in the 2nd district.

I found it.

Doesn't say anything about Poliquin's popularity.

Anyway, Tilt R, I suppose. Golden seems good unless Jackson jumps in.

[Coraxion]

Poliquin's seat is one of those seats that Dems NEED to pick-up if they have ANY shot at winning the house.

Not really.   It's very rural and extremely white.   I wouldn't call this a prime pickup opportunity. 

It's a quintessential swing district. We'll need a good number of those.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This seat needs to be highly contested, very winnable.

[I’m not Stu]

Poliquin's seat is one of those seats that Dems NEED to pick-up if they have ANY shot at winning the house.

Not really.   It's very rural and extremely white.   I wouldn't call this a prime pickup opportunity. 

It's a quintessential swing district. We'll need a good number of those.

And maybe some long shot but possibly winnable districts too.

[smoltchanov]

Poliquin's seat is one of those seats that Dems NEED to pick-up if they have ANY shot at winning the house.

Not really.   It's very rural and extremely white.   I wouldn't call this a prime pickup opportunity.  

Me too. Democrats must target it, but - with proper candidate  (preferrably working class gun carrying economic populist), not Emily Cain-type person. After all - district swung substantially to (not from) Trump, so it won't be easy, and district is unlikely to be among first to switch allegiance

[I’m not Stu]

Maybe Jared Golden or Troy Jackson.

[smoltchanov]

Maybe Jared Golden or Troy Jackson.

Jackson already tried, IIRC, and seems happy in legislature. So - Golden is, probably,  more likely..

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Poliquin's seat is one of those seats that Dems NEED to pick-up if they have ANY shot at winning the house.

Not really.   It's very rural and extremely white.   I wouldn't call this a prime pickup opportunity. 

Rural New England whites =/= other rural whites.  Come on man.

[I’m not Stu]

Poliquin's seat is one of those seats that Dems NEED to pick-up if they have ANY shot at winning the house.

Not really.   It's very rural and extremely white.   I wouldn't call this a prime pickup opportunity. 

Rural New England whites =/= other rural whites.  Come on man.

Rural whites in Maine are far more elastic and more Democratic than rural whites in West Virginia (where the GOP has every House seat).

[smoltchanov]

Poliquin's seat is one of those seats that Dems NEED to pick-up if they have ANY shot at winning the house.

Not really.   It's very rural and extremely white.   I wouldn't call this a prime pickup opportunity.  

Rural New England whites =/= other rural whites.  Come on man.

And still Northern Maine, Northern New Hampshire, and most eastern county of Vermont (Essex) swung rather heavily to Trump. So, i wouldn't call them "liberal heaven"... Some other areas - yes..