Which state will be each parties fools gold in 2020?

[Bidenworth2020]

I say GA for the dems and NV for ME overall for the reps

[Lord Admirale]

Dems: Ohio, Georgia
Reps: Minnesota, Maine

[Keep cool-idge]

Dems: Ohio, Georgia
Reps: Minnesota, Maine

No way Minnesota is fools gold if mcmuffin had not have been on the ballot in Minnesota then trump would have won it by 20,000 votes,as for Maine it's a swing state it's always been it's just that the GOP was nominating the wrong candidates if Maine was so blue then lapage would have never won.

The fools gold state election are going to be Colorado,Nevada,Georgia,Iowa and North Carolina.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

For Democrats: Definitely GA, probably OH as well unless Brown or Biden are the nominee. Also potentially TX given increasing talks of TX trending left, but I'm guessing the Democrats won't put too much stock into TX to begin with. I think they might be smart to give up on IA too without the right candidate to win it back.

For Republicans: I don't know how Republican leaders view CO and VA, so I don't know if they are going to try to seriously invest in those states, but I know that much of the Republican base still see them as easily winnable swing states while I would say it would almost take a landslide or a candidate from either of those states for CO or VA to flip. NV and MN are also probably not worth their time.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Dems- Georgia
GOP- Virginia

[Mr. Smith]

GOP: Minnesota
Dems: Texas

[PoliticalShelter]

I can see polls in 2020 suggesting that democratic nominee can win Montana but with the effort to win the state falling flat in the end.

[mileslunn]

Dems: Iowa
GOP: Colorado/Virginia

[Keep cool-idge]

Don't count out Virginia yet the GOP has done an awful job but the reason they keep losing is because there looking for votes in the wrong places if Virginia is to flip yes you do have to do better in northern Virginia then trump but it's the Hampton roads area the GOP used to destroy the democrats there but since 2008 they are still Winning just not by the margins you need to win if the GOP can get 55% out of Virginia Beach and keep swinging the western part of the state plus go back to Romney numbers in northern Virginia they will win.

[AN63093]

States like MN and ME aren't fools gold.  Sure, they would take some particular circumstances for the GOP to win (such as the Dems nominating a real dud of a candidate), but they are states that are trending GOP, are good long-term investments, and are within grasp.

Same goes for places like AZ and GA for the Dems.  Maybe they won't win them this cycle (in fact, I think they won't), but it's not money wasted since they are trending D and might be their best chance for pick-ups in 2024 or beyond.

When I think of "fools gold," I think of states that look like they could be winnable, but in practical terms are not only unwinnable (outside of a landslide), but are actually trending in the opposite direction, and yet people stubbornly refuse to believe it.  These people often tend to naively believe a state will magically go back to behaving like it did in the past.  These people are also usually dim-witted and make predictions that look rather silly after a few years pass, like claiming VT was still in play for the GOP in '92.


For the GOP, fools gold states are CO and VA.  You would think people would've gotten the message about these states, but I still see people claiming that they are swing states, which particularly in the case of VA, is one of the dumbest things I see on this forum.  Every $ spent in these states is money wasted that should be going to places like PA, ME, MN, WI, and MI.

For the Dems, I would say OH and IA.  They aren't quite as fools gold as the GOP states, because I think they could still technically flip without a D landslide, but it would require the right type of candidate (of which is unlikely to win the D primary) and a pretty substantial change in D party messaging, which I don't see any interest in from the party currently.  Even if they're still technically within grasp, these states are some of the worst investments possible for the Dems since they're not trending D and there's no reason to expect that they will start.  Every $ spent in these states is money wasted that should be going to places like AZ and GA, which although I think are still a couple cycles away from flipping.. the groundwork needs to begin now if they want to make a serious challenge in 2024.


Some states that I don't think are "fools gold" but would be "tough to win" states that might nonetheless be poor investments: NV for the GOP, NC for the Dems.

[Keep cool-idge]

States like MN and ME aren't fools gold.  Sure, they would take some particular circumstances for the GOP to win (such as the Dems nominating a real dud of a candidate), but they are states that are trending GOP, are good long-term investments, and are within grasp.

Same goes for places like AZ and GA for the Dems.  Maybe they won't win them this cycle (in fact, I think they won't), but it's not money wasted since they are trending D and might be their best chance for pick-ups in 2024 or beyond.

When I think of "fools gold," I think of states that look like they could be winnable, but in practical terms are not only unwinnable (outside of a landslide), but are actually trending in the opposite direction, and yet people stubbornly refuse to believe it.  These people often tend to naively believe a state will magically go back to behaving like it did in the past.  These people are also usually dim-witted and make predictions that look rather silly after a few years pass, like claiming VT was still in play for the GOP in '92.


For the GOP, fools gold states are CO and VA.  You would think people would've gotten the message about these states, but I still see people claiming that they are swing states, which particularly in the case of VA, is one of the dumbest things I see on this forum.  Every $ spent in these states is money wasted that should be going to places like PA, ME, MN, WI, and MI.

For the Dems, I would say OH and IA.  They aren't quite as fools gold as the GOP states, because I think they could still technically flip without a D landslide, but it would require the right type of candidate (of which is unlikely to win the D primary) and a pretty substantial change in D party messaging, which I don't see any interest in from the party currently.  Even if they're still technically within grasp, these states are some of the worst investments possible for the Dems since they're not trending D and there's no reason to expect that they will start.  Every $ spent in these states is money wasted that should be going to places like AZ and GA, which although I think are still a couple cycles away from flipping.. the groundwork needs to begin now if they want to make a serious challenge in 2024.


Some states that I don't think are "fools gold" but would be "tough to win" states that might nonetheless be poor investments: NV for the GOP, NC for the Dems.

See on Colorado it's fools gold for trump if it's Rubio in 2020 or 2024 then he will flip Colorado but yea I agree on Colorado but Virginia like I said in my post Virginia Beach is where the votes are last time bush won Virginia he got a 20,000 vote margin out of there but the GOP lately only gets a 5,000 vote margin so if the GOP gets a 20,000 vote margin out of Virginia Beach they have cut Hillarys victory by 1-fifth if the GOP gets the numbers mitt Romney got out of northern Virginia Hillarys margin is cut down to a 50,000 vote margin then let's say the GOP trend in western Virginia keeps going let's say they get 30,000 more votes out of there Hillarys margin is cut to only a 20,000 vote margin let's say that Hillary didn't pick Tim Kaine that cuts her margin down to 10,000 votes.
To be continued.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Dems: Ohio, Georgia
Reps: Minnesota, Maine

No way Minnesota is fools gold if mcmuffin had not have been on the ballot in Minnesota then trump would have won it by 20,000 votes,as for Maine it's a swing state it's always been it's just that the GOP was nominating the wrong candidates if Maine was so blue then lapage would have never won.

Huh? You're telling me that 100% of McMullin voters would have voted for Trump (instead of Johnson or Clinton) if McMullin wasn't on the ballot? Hard pass. Also LePage won twice because he was facing a split Democratic field.

[Keep cool-idge]

Dems: Ohio, Georgia
Reps: Minnesota, Maine

No way Minnesota is fools gold if mcmuffin had not have been on the ballot in Minnesota then trump would have won it by 20,000 votes,as for Maine it's a swing state it's always been it's just that the GOP was nominating the wrong candidates if Maine was so blue then lapage would have never won.

Huh? You're telling me that 100% of McMullin voters would have voted for Trump (instead of Johnson or Clinton) if McMullin wasn't on the ballot? Hard pass. Also LePage won twice because he was facing a split Democratic field.

No way that mcmuffin supporters would have voted for Hillary but if it was that the mcmuffin voters had to pick between Hillary and trump 95% would have voted for trump also 2016 was the first time since 1952 that Minnesota was to the right of the nation as for Maine I don't care if it was split so are you saying trump in a 2 person race would lose Pennsylvania?

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

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Or voted for Gary Johnson, or not voted. They had an opportunity to vote for Trump and they went out of their way to avoid it.

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So? That doesn't transfer McMullin voters to Trump in any way.

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I don't know if these two points are supposed to be related to each other but either way it's 100% non-sequitur.

[Keep cool-idge]

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Or voted for Gary Johnson, or not voted. They had an opportunity to vote for Trump and they went out of their way to avoid it.

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So? That doesn't transfer McMullin voters to Trump in any way.

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I don't know if these two points are supposed to be related to each other but either way it's 100% non-sequitur.

The point I'm making in the last part is that trump didn't get 50% but he got close in Pennsylvania are you saying in a 2 person race that Pennsylvania votes democrat?
Also Gary Johnson has said that he thinks 75% of the people that voted for him were probably republicans so if we give 75% plus 95% of mcmuffin supporters to trump in Minnesota who would win?

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

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That still has literally zero relevance to any argument that anybody was making in this thread. Ctrl+f "Pennsylvania" you are the only person bringing that race up and it doesn't even reinforce any argument you were trying to make.

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What point are you even trying to make? I have no idea. If you took 64.25% of Hillary Clinton's votes and gave them to Barney the purple dinosaur, while moving the election to a Wednesday and replacing every letter "i" on the ballot with a smiley face, the results would probably be different. Who cares?

[Keep cool-idge]

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That still has literally zero relevance to any argument that anybody was making in this thread. Ctrl+f "Pennsylvania" you are the only person bringing that race up and it doesn't even reinforce any argument you were trying to make.

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What point are you even trying to make? I have no idea. If you took 64.25% of Hillary Clinton's votes and gave them to Barney the purple dinosaur, while moving the election to a Wednesday and replacing every letter "i" on the ballot with a smiley face, the results would probably be different. Who cares?

The reason I keep bringing up Pennsylvania is that trump and lapage both got 48% in *foolsgold states*.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

For Democrats: Ohio, Georgia, Missouri
For Republicans: Virginia, Maine, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada

[Xing]

For Democrats: Georgia and Texas, not sure about Ohio.

For Republicans: Maine and Nevada, maybe Virginia (depending on how much they try to win it.)

[Keep cool-idge]

For Democrats: Georgia and Texas, not sure about Ohio.

For Republicans: Maine and Nevada, maybe Virginia (depending on how much they try to win it.)

I really think Nevada is gone unless there is a landslide Virginia read my other post about how the GOP wins back Virginia

[I’m not Stu]

R: Maine. A friend of mine at NRCC says Poliquin is in real trouble and that Trump is not popular in the 2nd district. I think the 2016 result was more anti-Hillary than pro-Cheeto, but we'll see! I guess it kinda falls in line with Trump being -14 in Maine in Gallup. That can't be just ME-1. He'd have to be at 75% disapproval there for the statewide numbers to align like that

I can see Trump possibly losing ME-2. If he loses ME-2, does he also lose NE-2?

[Don Vito Corleone]

Dems: Ohio, Georgia
Reps: Minnesota, Maine

No way Minnesota is fools gold if mcmuffin had not have been on the ballot in Minnesota then trump would have won it by 20,000 votes,as for Maine it's a swing state it's always been it's just that the GOP was nominating the wrong candidates if Maine was so blue then lapage would have never won.

The fools gold state election are going to be Colorado,Nevada,Georgia,Iowa and North Carolina.

I guess Louisiana is now a swing state because it has John Bel Edwards as governor?

[Keep cool-idge]

Dems: Ohio, Georgia
Reps: Minnesota, Maine

No way Minnesota is fools gold if mcmuffin had not have been on the ballot in Minnesota then trump would have won it by 20,000 votes,as for Maine it's a swing state it's always been it's just that the GOP was nominating the wrong candidates if Maine was so blue then lapage would have never won.

The fools gold state election are going to be Colorado,Nevada,Georgia,Iowa and North Carolina.

I guess Louisiana is now a swing state because it has John Bel Edwards has governor?

Louisiana is a different is different then Maine
The only reason john bel Edwards won was because of David vitter and him cheating
Maine is a swing state lapage was supposed to lose both times and he won both times.

[Crumpets]

Dems: Texas
Pubs: Minnesota

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats: Texas, Missouri, Indiana, probably Ohiowa as well
Republicans: Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire