MO-Sen, CFG (R): Hawley in the lead

[MT Treasurer]

Looks legitimate, though maybe a bit Democratic-friendly (the Remington poll was more believable IMO). 42% for a well-known two-term Democratic incumbent who won her previous reelection in a landslide and who is running in an unpopular GOP president's midterm is pretty awful, as is her favorability rating. But obviously not a surprise.

[MT Treasurer]

Looks legitimate, though maybe a bit Democratic-friendly (the Remington poll was more believable IMO). 42% for a well-known two-term Democratic incumbent who won her previous reelection in a landslide and who is running in an unpopular GOP president's midterm is pretty awful, as is her favorability rating. But obviously not a surprise.

A "club for growth" poll looks Dem friendly? Im not gonna unskew but the two polls we've gotten out of MO have been from conservative firms. Your getting too excited about a potential McCaskill loss.

Yeah, we've heard it before...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250381.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250383.0

Yes Remington is Republican, just like PPP is Democratic, but that does not mean there are methodological problems with their research. If any of you can point out Remington did anything wrong in conducting this poll I'll be the first to say you're right, but this does not seem like a particularly strange result at all.

But keep underestimating McCaskill's vulnerability to your heart's content.

[MT Treasurer]

^Yeah, I'm sure you'll consider some random PPP for Moveon.org poll more credible and less "partisan" than Missouri-based Remington, but to each their own I suppose. Ignore.

Anyway, people are certainly entitled to their own opinion, and my view is that McCaskill is incredibly overrated, much more so than any other Democrat running. I'll stick with my "Likely R" rating for now - it's not Safe R because the Missouri GOP is such a joke and Trump is president. If Hawley declines to run, I'll probably move it to Lean R. If you people are right and she wins, I'll admit that I was wrong and move on.