MO-Sen, CFG (R): Hawley in the lead
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  MO-Sen, CFG (R): Hawley in the lead
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Author Topic: MO-Sen, CFG (R): Hawley in the lead  (Read 2861 times)
krazen1211
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« on: July 14, 2017, 11:05:20 AM »
« edited: July 14, 2017, 09:04:06 PM by Brittain33 »

Link

Hawley 46
McCaskill 42



Great poll!
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: July 14, 2017, 12:22:49 PM »

Looks legitimate, though maybe a bit Democratic-friendly (the Remington poll was more believable IMO). 42% for a well-known two-term Democratic incumbent who won her previous reelection in a landslide and who is running in an unpopular GOP president's midterm is pretty awful, as is her favorability rating. But obviously not a surprise.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #2 on: July 14, 2017, 12:41:03 PM »

omg! I am going to panic! polls taken in the summer before the election year are always accurate!
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #3 on: July 14, 2017, 12:49:09 PM »
« Edited: July 14, 2017, 12:51:28 PM by superbudgie1582 »

Looks legitimate, though maybe a bit Democratic-friendly (the Remington poll was more believable IMO). 42% for a well-known two-term Democratic incumbent who won her previous reelection in a landslide and who is running in an unpopular GOP president's midterm is pretty awful, as is her favorability rating. But obviously not a surprise.

A "club for growth" poll looks Dem friendly? Im not gonna unskew but the two polls we've gotten out of MO have been from conservative firms. Your getting too excited about a potential McCaskill loss.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #4 on: July 14, 2017, 12:52:18 PM »

Republican pollster Fabrizio Lee on behalf of the Club for Growth. We have yet to see an independent poll for this race.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #5 on: July 14, 2017, 12:54:35 PM »

Republican pollster Fabrizio Lee on behalf of the Club for Growth. We have yet to see an independent poll for this race.

help me... i am going to panic
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #6 on: July 14, 2017, 12:55:53 PM »

Republican pollster Fabrizio Lee on behalf of the Club for Growth. We have yet to see an independent poll for this race.

help me... i am going to panic

You have a year and change to do that, save it for later.
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Skye
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« Reply #7 on: July 14, 2017, 01:01:30 PM »

Safe R.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #8 on: July 14, 2017, 01:06:38 PM »
« Edited: July 14, 2017, 01:09:13 PM by MT Treasurer »

Looks legitimate, though maybe a bit Democratic-friendly (the Remington poll was more believable IMO). 42% for a well-known two-term Democratic incumbent who won her previous reelection in a landslide and who is running in an unpopular GOP president's midterm is pretty awful, as is her favorability rating. But obviously not a surprise.

A "club for growth" poll looks Dem friendly? Im not gonna unskew but the two polls we've gotten out of MO have been from conservative firms. Your getting too excited about a potential McCaskill loss.

Yeah, we've heard it before...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250381.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250383.0

Yes Remington is Republican, just like PPP is Democratic, but that does not mean there are methodological problems with their research. If any of you can point out Remington did anything wrong in conducting this poll I'll be the first to say you're right, but this does not seem like a particularly strange result at all.

But keep underestimating McCaskill's vulnerability to your heart's content.
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Fudotei
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« Reply #9 on: July 14, 2017, 01:07:34 PM »

Hawley's the best candidate they can get (besides Wagner's truckloads of money). The same article mentioned Schmitt and I doubt his ability to beat McCaskill. But I could see Hawley pulling this off.

If he doesn't run, McCaskill'l keep the seat. That I'm pretty sure of.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #10 on: July 14, 2017, 02:06:12 PM »

Looks legitimate, though maybe a bit Democratic-friendly (the Remington poll was more believable IMO). 42% for a well-known two-term Democratic incumbent who won her previous reelection in a landslide and who is running in an unpopular GOP president's midterm is pretty awful, as is her favorability rating. But obviously not a surprise.

A "club for growth" poll looks Dem friendly? Im not gonna unskew but the two polls we've gotten out of MO have been from conservative firms. Your getting too excited about a potential McCaskill loss.

Yeah, we've heard it before...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250381.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250383.0

Yes Remington is Republican, just like PPP is Democratic, but that does not mean there are methodological problems with their research. If any of you can point out Remington did anything wrong in conducting this poll I'll be the first to say you're right, but this does not seem like a particularly strange result at all.

But keep underestimating McCaskill's vulnerability to your heart's content.

You completely missed my point. Regardless of how accurate they were last year, I would like to see polling from a non partisan firm. And it seems you've already decided McCaskill's fate by two polls a year out. I assure you, we will see polls with McCaskill ahead, and I'm sure your going to call them junk.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #11 on: July 14, 2017, 02:25:37 PM »

^Yeah, I'm sure you'll consider some random PPP for Moveon.org poll more credible and less "partisan" than Missouri-based Remington, but to each their own I suppose. Ignore.

Anyway, people are certainly entitled to their own opinion, and my view is that McCaskill is incredibly overrated, much more so than any other Democrat running. I'll stick with my "Likely R" rating for now - it's not Safe R because the Missouri GOP is such a joke and Trump is president. If Hawley declines to run, I'll probably move it to Lean R. If you people are right and she wins, I'll admit that I was wrong and move on.
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Former Senator Haslam2020
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« Reply #12 on: July 14, 2017, 02:32:48 PM »

They should poll Petersen
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #13 on: July 14, 2017, 02:41:11 PM »

^Yeah, I'm sure you'll consider some random PPP for Moveon.org poll more credible and less "partisan" than Missouri-based Remington, but to each their own I suppose. Ignore.

Anyway, people are certainly entitled to their own opinion, and my view is that McCaskill is incredibly overrated, much more so than any other Democrat running. I'll stick with my "Likely R" rating for now - it's not Safe R because the Missouri GOP is such a joke and Trump is president. If Hawley declines to run, I'll probably move it to Lean R. If you people are right and she wins, I'll admit that I was wrong and move on.

You put me on ignore for that? Lol.
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#gravelgang #lessiglad
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« Reply #14 on: July 14, 2017, 07:13:14 PM »

Doesn't bode well for McCaskill. I would be interested in seeing the name recognition numbers for each candidate.
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moderatevoter
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« Reply #15 on: July 14, 2017, 07:19:06 PM »

Doesn't bode well for McCaskill. I would be interested in seeing the name recognition numbers for each candidate.

Here is a copy of the poll results.

From the attached document:
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« Reply #16 on: July 14, 2017, 07:24:00 PM »

I'd like to see a PPP or Independent poll on this race, but this does not change my current Rating of Lean R for now.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #17 on: July 15, 2017, 12:17:05 AM »

Many republicans need to stop calling this DOA, it is far from it, and on the other side, many democrats need to wake up and realize that this is not a shoo in for McCaskill either.
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SATW
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« Reply #18 on: July 15, 2017, 09:51:36 PM »

This is going to be the most annoying race of 2018 to read about on atlas. the McCaskill hacks and the Hawley bois are already annoying.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #19 on: July 15, 2017, 10:04:11 PM »

The sooner Democrats accept that Missouri is dead for them, the better. Sure, maybe Kander could eek out a 50.1% to 49.9% win in the general if he were to primary McCaskill, but he definitely would be a one termer. McCaskill may sneak through if Hartzler is the nominee and ruins everything, but would definitely be winning election to her last term. Rather than trying to leak every last drop out of Missouri, Dems should triage it and focus on keeping IN/ND and picking up NV/AZ.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #20 on: July 15, 2017, 10:07:35 PM »

Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #21 on: July 16, 2017, 02:17:33 AM »

The sooner Democrats accept that Missouri is dead for them, the better. Sure, maybe Kander could eek out a 50.1% to 49.9% win in the general if he were to primary McCaskill, but he definitely would be a one termer. McCaskill may sneak through if Hartzler is the nominee and ruins everything, but would definitely be winning election to her last term. Rather than trying to leak every last drop out of Missouri, Dems should triage it and focus on keeping IN/ND and picking up NV/AZ.


Why would it have to be 50.1 to 49.9? Why not 51 to 48? Why not 49.3 to 48.7? You know there are often third party candidates correct?

You are aware that Kander is why overrated? You are aware that it is impossible to predict elections in 2022? You are aware that its too early to triage any where though signs may be coming more in January 2018 not July 2017.

I am not predicting McCaskill will win but I will say a great way to lose an election is to be absolutely confident that it is an election you absolutely can not lose! We all saw that last year!
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Shameless Lefty Hack
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« Reply #22 on: July 16, 2017, 02:26:01 AM »

This is going to be the most annoying race of 2018 to read about on atlas. the McCaskill hacks and the Hawley bois are already annoying.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #23 on: July 16, 2017, 02:28:21 AM »

This is going to be the most annoying race of 2018 to read about on atlas. the McCaskill hacks and the Hawley bois are already annoying.

I am not a McCaskill hack. I think this forum is way to obsessed with her tho.
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Skunk
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« Reply #24 on: July 16, 2017, 03:01:36 AM »

This is going to be the most annoying race of 2018 to read about on atlas. the McCaskill hacks and the Hawley bois are already annoying.
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