AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?

[Rjjr77]

I wonder if schweikert runs, do we see the return of Ben Quayle?

[Doimper]

Flake considering running as an independent

Yes, please give Sinema this seat on a platinum platter.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Flake considering running as an independent

Meanwhile, at NRSC headquarters:

[TheSaint250]

Flake considering running as an independent

(I know this would probably give the seat away, but any chance of an independent senator is good for me.)

[GlobeSoc]

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[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Flake considering running as an independent

Meanwhile, at NRSC headquarters:

Enthusiastic Endorsement?

I haven't made an endorsement in this race and don't plan to in the immediate future. There are things I like about Sinema, Flake (I), and Salmon/McSally.

[mvd10]

Honestly, he should do this if Chemtrail is the nominee.

[TheSaint250]

So Flake denies on Twitter that he will run.

But we'll see...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Flake considering running as an independent

Yes, please give Sinema this seat on a platinum platter.

[Maxwell]

Flake considering running as an independent

Yes, please give Sinema this seat on a platinum platter.

Flake would get, at most, 12% of the vote as an indie. That may be enough, idk.

[Heisenberg]

Data Orbital poll of the GOP primary:

Ward 26%
McSally 19%
Salmon 10%
Schweikert 5%
Shadegg 4%
Heiler 1%

Great poll! (?)

Seems like a lot of potential upside for McSally if she can consolidate the non-chemtrail vote.

I don't think so. She was NeverTrump

And the Club for Growth has said they will strongly attack her if she gets in. I can see Salmon consolidate the Schweikert/Shaddegg people into his camp, win over undecideds, and possibly pick off support from Ward and/or McSally (if she even runs). Salmon will probably win the primary if he runs, but it will take work.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Data Orbital poll of the GOP primary:

Ward 26%
McSally 19%
Salmon 10%
Schweikert 5%
Shadegg 4%
Heiler 1%

Great poll! (?)

Seems like a lot of potential upside for McSally if she can consolidate the non-chemtrail vote.

I don't think so. She was NeverTrump

And the Club for Growth has said they will strongly attack her if she gets in. I can see Salmon consolidate the Schweikert/Shaddegg people into his camp, win over undecideds, and possibly pick off support from Ward and/or McSally (if she even runs). Salmon will probably win the primary if he runs, but it will take work.

If the primary consists of only Salmon and Ward, Salmon wins in a landslide.

[BuckeyeNut]

A lot of people on this forum are highly underestimating Ward she is clearly the front runner for the Gop Nomination if she wins it I say theirs a solid 45% chance Flake runs as an independent

Flake decided to resign because he knew he was going to lose to Ward.

[IceSpear]

Flake running as an independent might actually help Republicans, just as hypothetical polls showed Lugar/Castle independent runs helping Mourdock/O'Donnell, and how an independent Crist run helped Rubio. His approval with Republicans was already toxic, and would only fall even lower once he announced an independent candidacy.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Flake running as an independent might actually help Republicans, just as hypothetical polls showed Lugar/Castle independent runs helping Mourdock/O'Donnell, and how an independent Crist run helped Rubio. His approval with Republicans was already toxic, and would only fall even lower once he announced an independent candidacy.

Apparently anything that happens helps Ward...

[TheSaint250]

Flake running as an independent might actually help Republicans, just as hypothetical polls showed Lugar/Castle independent runs helping Mourdock/O'Donnell, and how an independent Crist run helped Rubio. His approval with Republicans was already toxic, and would only fall even lower once he announced an independent candidacy.

Can't tell you about the others, but with Crist, that was about the time when he was becoming a Democrat anyway, so the vote split with Meek made sense.

[IceSpear]

Flake running as an independent might actually help Republicans, just as hypothetical polls showed Lugar/Castle independent runs helping Mourdock/O'Donnell, and how an independent Crist run helped Rubio. His approval with Republicans was already toxic, and would only fall even lower once he announced an independent candidacy.

Apparently anything that happens helps Ward...

Nah, Flake retiring hurt her odds of winning the primary significantly. But in terms of the general, Dems were basically at their peak with a guaranteed nasty, bitter, and expensive Flake/Ward primary and a highly probable Ward win. Any major variable changing is going to have more upside than downside for the GOP as a whole considering they were already pretty much at rock bottom before. And the idea that a Flake independent run would attract Republicans is silly. AZ Republicans, much like Republicans overall, love Trump and despise Flake. That's why he retired to begin with!

[DrScholl]

Arizona has a Mormon electorate that Republicans can't afford to lose. Flake is Mormon. Mormons tend to vote for one of their own and Flake winning that vote would create enough of a spoiler effect to cost Ward the seat. Flake won't run as an independent, but if he chose to do so he'd hurt Ward.

[Heisenberg]

Arizona has a Mormon electorate that Republicans can't afford to lose. Flake is Mormon. Mormons tend to vote for one of their own and Flake winning that vote would create enough of a spoiler effect to cost Ward the seat. Flake won't run as an independent, but if he chose to do so he'd hurt Ward.

That's part of the reason I want Salmon to run, he's Mormon, too, and represented the same seat Flake did. That's one of his biggest strengths.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I really hope McSally runs, just to drain Ward's resources and then Flake runs as an independent. Hand Sinema the senate seat!

[BuckeyeNut]

A lot of people on this forum are highly underestimating Ward she is clearly the front runner for the Gop Nomination if she wins it I say theirs a solid 45% chance Flake runs as an independent

Are you a moron? Flake decided to resign because he knew he was going to lose to Ward.

No, I believe he would want to do it to stop Ward

Flake is resigning because he doesn't think he can stop Ward. What you are proposing makes absolutely no sense.

[Figueira]

It would be hilarious to see McSally go down in flames like this, but I have a feeling she'll see the writing on the wall and decide not to run. Unless she's sick of the House (and constant re-election campaigns) and wants to try something new at all costs.

[BuckeyeNut]

A lot of people on this forum are highly underestimating Ward she is clearly the front runner for the Gop Nomination if she wins it I say theirs a solid 45% chance Flake runs as an independent

Are you a moron? Flake decided to resign because he knew he was going to lose to Ward.

No, I believe he would want to do it to stop Ward

Flake is resigning because he doesn't think he can stop Ward. What you are proposing makes absolutely no sense.

As an independant ding dong he can siphon enough votes from Ward to make her lose

Yes, I know you mean as an Independent. I'm not illiterate, this idea is just stupid.

Flake has no interest in seeing a Democrat elected to his Senate seat, even if Ward is the Republican. Flake is a very conservative politician, despite his nice-guy demeanor.

[The Mikado]

Jeff Flake is not entering this race as a spoiler just to torpedo Kelli Ward. That is a stupid idea.

[Gass3268]

Rand Paul endorses Chemtrail Keilli