Favorite recent post by the previous poster

[WD]

I think that some of it might’ve been that they didn’t fit the cultural zeitgeist of the time. The 90s (and when I say 90s, I mean from the fall of the Soviet Union (pick whichever date you want for that) until 9/11) was the time of what I call pie-in-the-sky bullsh[Inks] optimism. Things like West Wing for example. There wasn’t a big bad that Western culture was fighting against.

[_.]

I would pay good money* to watch CraneHusband go into Hialeah and have lengthy conversations about Fidel Castro with the locals.

* Figure of speech, I would never actually do this

Does the sum include the money for a professional bodyguard?

I'm really not particularly worried about a bunch of fat guys who don't believe in vaccines or the 2020 election, but it's certainly nice of you to suggest I deserve violence for not bowing down to my my country's hypocritical and obsessive treatment of Cuba.

Lol chill man
I was only joking

You gotta admit though it'd be funny to watch

-SKIP-

[ProgressiveModerate]

I tried my hand at a fair congressional map of Texas using the 2020 census results.

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The Population Deviation is less than 0.01%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

100/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
77/100 on the Compactness Index
51/100 on County Splitting
80/100 on the Minority Representation index
20/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2014 U.S. Senate Election in Texas: 30R to 8D

2014 Texas Gubernatorial Election: 28R to 10D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Texas: 20R to 18D

2018 Texas Attorney General Election: 21D to 17R

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Texas: 21D to 17R

2018 Texas Gubernatorial Election: 26R to 12D

2018 Texas Lieutenant Governor Election: 20R to 18D

2020 U.S. Senate Election in Texas: 21R to 17D

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Texas: 19R to 19D


Texas's geography is crazy good for Democrats actually.

My map has nine majority-Hispanic districts (all five touching the Mexican border, the two in San Antonio, and two in the Houston metro area) in terms of their voting-age population. Then there are five more seats which are over 40% Hispanic (voting-age population).

It doesn't have a single majority-Black seat, but there are two opportunity seats (30% or more) in the Houston metro and there's a 40% Black seat in Dallas. Truth be told Texas doesn't have a lot of Black people.

There are also two seats that are over 20% Asian. One is centered around the Plano-Frisco conurbation in the Southern parts of Collin and Denton Counties, and the other is based in Fort Bend County.


Opinions?

Low key this Texas map is actually really nice, clean, keeps communities together, and has just the right amount of minority representation. A lot of people struggle to make compact and fair Dallas and especially Houston area maps that don’t look unnatural but you pulled it off. This is the kinda map that I just sit and admire for like 5 minutes.

[Stuart98]

Made 2 black majority districts.

Making a New-Orleans majority black district that doesn't touch Baton Rouge got a bit harder after the census, but making a Baton-Rouge based black district got a bit easier.

[Crumpets]

I'm less than convinced that the scandal would have done her in, especially in California of all places. Garcia won by only 300 votes and Hill seems like an unambiguously stronger candidate than Smith was, plus she would have had an incumbency advantage.

[THG]

Chumbawumba did 9/11.

[OSR stands with Israel]

“Misinformation” is short for “facts I don’t like”.

Forget Democrats. Literally anyone’s definition of misinformation means diddly squat to THG.

[_.]

I'm surprised so many people vote Trump. While there's argument because you need to switch fewer votes in certain states, I think you can't leave the popular vote - ergo mandate - out of the picture. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 by nearly three million and even won a lower share of votes than Mitt Romney did. In 2020, Joe Biden won the popular vote by more than seven million and an absolute majority of the vote.

Yah by that definition Obama in 2008 won a larger victory than Reagan in 1980, Bush in 1988 and Clinton in 1996 cause he won the tipping point state by a larger margin than any of those 3

[Utah Neolib]

Tennessee's another dark horse for being a COVID-19 epicenter over the coming weeks, competing with Georgia despite only having 65% of its population

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Be aware that for Tennessee to be at Florida levels during its Delta Wave peak, it'd only need 7K cases a day. Tennessee is looking to surpass that, though.

South Carolina's also hot on their tail in terms of cases, but its positivity rate's somewhat lower.


In the case of Ohio, it looks like Autumn's about to arrive and is just around the corner.
Mike DeWine won't be happy about this one.

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Could be a harbinger of bad days to come for the Midwest over the coming months.
Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin all are seeing slow but steady increases, both in terms of positivity and in confirmed cases. The Midwestern wave is coming and it'll be brutal, possibly even worse than the Southern one.

This isn't even to speak of the Interior Northwest, where Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas are looking to break all records per capita despite it not even being close to winter yet. They should be getting ready, though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nope not replying to this, nope nope nope nope

[beaver2.0]

France, if you can call that a "visit".

Out of the context of him being a Frank this is much more amusing.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

You know, length of life isn't everything.  I suppose I could live to 300 if I never left my house, never drank, and never had meat but those are things I enjoy.  As long as I stay moderately healthy and can enjoy those activities in moderation, that seems like a reasonable trade-off.

[Torrain]

Thunder has some fantastic redistributing maps. I quibbled between this map, and a post investigating the common threads between Coolface socks. Would also recommend his IL gerrymander maps.

I was able to make a 19R-19D Congressional map.

34 Minority opportunity seats, 14 Hispanic seats, and 2 Black seats.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/548e4c62-b64d-49d2-bf98-0dc9bd17cbbf

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

$600m would buy you a new lab complex, not ventilation for an existing building.

I mean, biotech equipment is expensive, but it's not that expensive.

[THG]

Wonderful news.

[West_Midlander]

Maybe this one:

god hates ppl tho why should we worship him

God loves you.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I am sure that the Media would want 4 more years of Trump over Biden. I am sure that the Media loves what is happening in Afghanistan.

Yeah, they just want higher ratings = more money made from ads.

To answer the question: absolutely.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Silly stupid media narratives push the idea nationalism is right-wing, when in practice nationalism easily transcends the right-left divide.

This is one of the most perceptive posts in the history of this Forum.

[Utah Neolib]

Yes. If for no other reason than because showing mercy to someone who might not deserve it, but for whom continued punishment will have no positive effect on anyone, is one of the best ways I can think of to honor RFK's legacy and make gentle the life of this world.

We can do this in many ways.  

We can, and should, abolish the Death Penalty in all states.  We can, and should, revisit those aspects of the criminal justice system that result in racial and ethnic inequalities (e. g. sentencing enhancements, minimum-mandatories, things like greater penalties for crack vs. powder).  We can restore voting rights to all citizens no longer in prison or jail.  (I don't believe in active jail or prison inmates voting, those rights have been taken away by due process.)  We can examine the lasting damage a felony criminal record has and make provisions for these records (in at least some cases) to expire, balancing the need for law enforcement intelligence over the societal interest to not have large numbers of persons precluded from the benefits of a law-abiding lifestyle because of a past mistake).  We can reinstitute parole in states where it no longer exists for a wide range of offenses.  We can end oppressive economic penalties for minor crimes and traffic offenses which disproportionately impact low-income persons.  (This was the REAL grievance of the people of Ferguson, MO, one that got very little play in the national media.)    We can do all that and then some.  

And well we should.  But political assassinations are different.  It is not merciful to encourage people to take a shot at political leaders.  "Where there's life, there's hope."  For some who would kill our leaders, there's the hope that some terrorist somewhere might make their release from prison a demand to be met in order to prevent a terrorist attack.  That's different than the crack addict who panics aduring a convenience store clerk in a robbery, or a fugitive who holds court in the street with police for fear of being captured.  Those people can be deterred by the penalties and are somewhat capable of counting the costs and choosing the cheaper alternative.  Political assassins have already done that and are convinced that they will not be caught, or who are willing martyrs.  It is not merciful to society to parole them.

[THG]

This made me chuckle:

Burgess Owens looks like an older Collin Allred

[_.]

Vaccination rates are not solely based on partisanship. I feel that educational trends are also a factor- a highly educated Republican county probably has a higher vaccination rate than a fairly less educated Democratic county:

https://www.twitter.com/mtracey/status/1417865324502913027
https://www.twitter.com/mtracey/status/1417872303770284032
Also, the most vaccinated county in Florida is Sumter County- home to the Villages, which went 68% for Trump. Just to shoehorn in another example.

[GregTheGreat657]

We can thank the Bernie Bros who didn't vote for Hillary.

The Bernie Bros who didn't vote for Hillary are responsible for this.

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[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I could see a higher share than the general electorate as being #NeverTrumpers.

Yeah. Never Trumpers tend to be wealthier, more educated, and more likely to live a suburb or city than the average Republican. Considering NASA employees are wealthier, more educated, and live in a major metropolitan area, this makes sense.

[GregTheGreat657]

https://twitter.com/CA_Talks/status/1434329635412529161?s=20

Also in the thread they note that those who oppose are more likely to go later, either voting this coming week or day of.

What I am asking myself is, "How can the recall have any chance of success if it's only up 50-48 in Orange County?".

Only feels like yesterday folks were adamant about OC snapping back to pre-2008 partisanship & supporting the recall by double-digits

The OC of today is not the OC of 2003 or of 1983, and it's good that this forum, panic-y as it can get, gets a reality check and is reminded of that fact, let it be in form of a poll, an election result, etc.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I’ll go for the low hanging fruit, Ben McAdams