CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[DrScholl]

The easiest reform would probably be to remove the replacement option and just have the Lt. Governor take over. This would eliminate partisan motivations for recall unless there was a partisan split between Governor and Lt. Governor (not very likely these days).

That works for Governor races, obviously the most prominent of the recalls, but CA recall law applies to the whole state. Plenty of examples of other offices getting a petition, for example the recent 2018 OC state senate recall, who lack a successor position.

The threshold could be raised for signatures and perhaps the second question on those could be eliminated and any replacement would be appointed by the governor (with the recalled politician being exempt from appointment). With that said legislative recalls rarely qualify and the one mentioned was the first state senate recall to succeed in over 100 years.

[Telesquare]

Huge endorsement
https://twitter.com/mtgreenee/status/1434174701182586883

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/CA_Talks/status/1434329635412529161?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/CA_Talks/status/1434329635412529161?s=20

Also in the thread they note that those who support ousting Newsom are more likely to go later, either voting this coming week or day of.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/CA_Talks/status/1434329635412529161?s=20

Also in the thread they note that those who oppose are more likely to go later, either voting this coming week or day of.

What I am asking myself is, "How can the recall have any chance of success if it's only up 50-48 in Orange County?".

[Хahar 🤔]

Newsom won Orange County by 3,000 votes in 2018 while winning 62–38 statewide. I don't see any reason we can't assume a uniform swing here, and Yes winning by two points in Orange County would suggest something like a 60–40 No result statewide.

[DrScholl]

Only a two point lead in Orange County would definitely equal a decisive No vote statewide. It might not even prevail there in the end.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Huge endorsement
https://twitter.com/mtgreenee/status/1434174701182586883

Yuge indeed. Now the demographic of Californian MTG fans who were previously undecided on recalling Gavin Newsom is in the bag!

[DrScholl]

Talking about replacing Feinstein and flipping the majority back to Republicans is a great way to run up the No vote even more.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Ironically getting attention from national Republicans is probably the single best way to motivate California Dems to vote.

The way Republicans have been campaigning is like if the Democrats had Nancy Pelosi, AOC and Hillary Clinton lead the effort to flip Kentucky.

[Fubart Solman]

I dropped my ballot off today. No/Angelyne (yes, I’m serious)

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://twitter.com/CA_Talks/status/1434329635412529161?s=20

Also in the thread they note that those who oppose are more likely to go later, either voting this coming week or day of.

What I am asking myself is, "How can the recall have any chance of success if it's only up 50-48 in Orange County?".

Only feels like yesterday folks were adamant about OC snapping back to pre-2008 partisanship & supporting the recall by double-digits

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/CA_Talks/status/1434329635412529161?s=20

Also in the thread they note that those who oppose are more likely to go later, either voting this coming week or day of.

What I am asking myself is, "How can the recall have any chance of success if it's only up 50-48 in Orange County?".

Only feels like yesterday folks were adamant about OC snapping back to pre-2008 partisanship & supporting the recall by double-digits

The OC of today is not the OC of 2003 or of 1983, and it's good that this forum, panic-y as it can get, gets a reality check and is reminded of that fact, let it be in form of a poll, an election result, etc.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Help me here, peeps: if the recall effort fails, is there a provision that prevents or disallows a second recall effort from immediately beginning? (Though I presume that there will be no interest in devoting the time and money into such a thing). 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Help me here, peeps: if the recall effort fails, is there a provision that prevents or disallows a second recall effort from immediately beginning? (Though I presume that there will be no interest in devoting the time and money into such a thing). 

As I interpret the recall procedures on the SoS website, there is a six-month waiting period to try again, but only for local (city/county) officers, not state officers.  So I believe they could start over immediately.

https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/recalls/recall-procedures-guide.pdf

[Senator Incitatus]

At this point, I think Newsom will survive by a single-digit margin.

[GeorgiaModerate]

At this point, I think Newsom will survive by a single-digit margin.

I'll be mildly surprised if it's not double digits.

[kwabbit]

Newsom won Orange County by 3,000 votes in 2018 while winning 62–38 statewide. I don't see any reason we can't assume a uniform swing here, and Yes winning by two points in Orange County would suggest something like a 60–40 No result statewide.

It’ll be close to a uniform swing I imagine, but Dem areas will probably swing more since a small portion of Dems support the recall. Like I bet LA county will have a stronger than uniform swing, maybe the non SF bay area as well.

[Antonio the Sixth]

At this point, I think Newsom will survive by a single-digit margin.

I'll be mildly surprised if it's not double digits.

High 10s would be my guess, with an outside chance of low 10s and low 20s.

[Greedo punched first]

Who might Newsom face in 2022, a House Republican who gets drawn out?

[Oryxslayer]

Who might Newsom face in 2022, a House Republican who gets drawn out?

I know this is ERM attention trolling, but I'm responding to turn it in a different direction. I really think Newsom is more likely to face a serious primary challenger in the runoff with the recall in the rearview mirror than if it wasn't. The CA GOP has spent all their capital and Elder is going to emerge as the GOP candidate with the best image among the devout. That's a recipe for them not really caring and letting Elder get consumed by the electoral wolves. Meanwhile Newsom appears as a D governor who had to be bailed out by the national party in a blue state. He won't be challenged by anyone holding a statewide office, especially if Feinstein retires and opens up a senatorial bloodbath, but there's plenty of prominent opportunists across this big state who wouldn't mind a go when there is less danger to the overall party.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Who might Newsom face in 2022, a House Republican who gets drawn out?

I know this is ERM attention trolling, but I'm responding to turn it in a different direction. I really think Newsom is more likely to face a serious primary challenger in the runoff with the recall in the rearview mirror than if it wasn't. The CA GOP has spent all their capital and Elder is going to emerge as the GOP candidate with the best image among the devout. That's a recipe for them not really caring and letting Elder get consumed by the electoral wolves. Meanwhile Newsom appears as a D governor who had to be bailed out by the national party in a blue state. He won't be challenged by anyone holding a statewide office, especially if Feinstein retires and opens up a senatorial bloodbath, but there's plenty of prominent opportunists across this big state who wouldn't mind a go when there is less danger to the overall party.

Could we be looking at Paffrath 2022?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Huge endorsement
https://twitter.com/mtgreenee/status/1434174701182586883

Yeah, that'll help!

Seriously I think the California GOP, by pursuing this recall and making Elder the alternative, may have inadvertently rehabilitated Newsom's reputation in the state.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Huge endorsement
https://twitter.com/mtgreenee/status/1434174701182586883

Yeah, that'll help!

Seriously I think the California GOP, by pursuing this recall and making Elder the alternative, may have inadvertently rehabilitated Newsom's reputation in the state.

With enemies like this, who needs friends?
Jokes aside, it's quite something to see the GOP bungle this. There does seem to have been some discontent on the ground, but it was not at 2003 levels. And in this rather treacherous situation, they played their cards pretty badly.
There was no way California would elect as governor a man who said the minimum wage should be $0.
The GOP was so focused on what it wanted, it forgot to focus on what California wanted.

[brucejoel99]

Who might Newsom face in 2022, a House Republican who gets drawn out?

I know this is ERM attention trolling, but I'm responding to turn it in a different direction. I really think Newsom is more likely to face a serious primary challenger in the runoff with the recall in the rearview mirror than if it wasn't. The CA GOP has spent all their capital and Elder is going to emerge as the GOP candidate with the best image among the devout. That's a recipe for them not really caring and letting Elder get consumed by the electoral wolves. Meanwhile Newsom appears as a D governor who had to be bailed out by the national party in a blue state. He won't be challenged by anyone holding a statewide office, especially if Feinstein retires and opens up a senatorial bloodbath, but there's plenty of prominent opportunists across this big state who wouldn't mind a go when there is less danger to the overall party.

Could we be looking at Paffrath 2022?

Or, more seriously, Steyer &/or Villaraigosa 2022?