GA-06 and SC-05 election day & results thread

[libertpaulian]

If Democrats think they're going to be taking the House in 2018, this is a district they'll likely need to win.  This is supposed to be their brand new "winning coalition" of educated whites.  Epic fail.

No its not this would be a dems having a 50 seat majority seat

False

LOL ok well your posts in this thread so far have been insubstansive a so not sure why i continue to bother to reply but if i was head of the DCCC this would be on the extra seat list to take the house.  Actually i think dems need to focus on the rust belt and parts of Appalachia for 2018, in particular WV-2,3 and I think its KY-6 (the one in eastern kentucky dems had til 2012).

The seat has an R+8 PVI and the SC seat is actually imo much more alarming for the GOP considering it should not have swing much at all it should be an inelastic rural southern seat unless im missing some unique faceat of this district.

This district was Trump +1 in 2016.  The rust belt is gone. Those seats aren't swinging back.  Educated college whites are the Democrats new great white hope, and they've let them down this time.  The path to 2016 isn't going to be the same for Democrats that it was in 2008.

Yep, I remember how Indiana became a safe Democratic state after Obama's 2008 victory.

Even after 2008, the long term trends were painfully obvious.  Nobody seriously expected battleground Indiana(!) going into 2012.  Not comparable at all...

Even in 2012, Romney won Indiana by only 10%, which isn't very high for a Republican.

[Green Line]

Democrats had to nationalize the race, that was their best play.  This is a Republican district.  Tying Handel to Trump was the right move, just wasn't enough.

[swf541]

On balance, the trend for the Democratic Party is still positive. Remember, the SC result has about the same weight as the GA 06 result, and would have more impact in the House swing. The base would have been happy with a win, but I don't think this was again, a bad night, for Democrats. Losing GA 06 by 6 and losing SC by 15 would have been bad. Losing GA 06 by 2 and losing SC by 3 is not a bad night at all.

Mixed, yeah, but the trend remains positive for the Democratic Party.

Are you supporting the Dems now?

I dont think decent analysis regardless of ones party id makes one biased to either party.  If the dem list in SC by more than 5 id be fairly demoralized

[TheSaint250]

If Democrats think they're going to be taking the House in 2018, this is a district they'll likely need to win.  This is supposed to be their brand new "winning coalition" of educated whites.  Epic fail, IF they have in fact lost.

I'm not so sure that winning Republican districts is going to help Democrats.  What Ds need are swing seats and a fair redistricting process for 2022.  They might not win back the House until 2022 when a new map is produced.

"fair"

[Green Line]

Democrats had to nationalize the race, that was their best play.  This is a Republican district.  Tying Handel to Trump was the right move, just wasn't enough.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is it fair to say that if he looses tonight it's because Ossoff was a pussy who should've gone more negative?

Yes.

You might gain some that way, but you might also lose some.  I know some GA-6 voters who were attracted by his attempt to run a civil campaign, especially after all the negativity last year.

[Umengus]

"A previous version of the chart below included an incorrect calculation which reversed the vote margins for the candidates."

lol politico

[swf541]

Democrats had to nationalize the race, that was their best play.  This is a Republican district.  Tying Handel to Trump was the right move, just wasn't enough.

Handel was a horrid canidate and nationalizing it made the trump types come out en masse it seems, no it was a stupid strategy that backfired.  Dems need to refocus on a mixed strategy and invest heavily in some rural areas that are ancestrally dem.

[The_Doctor]

On balance, the trend for the Democratic Party is still positive. Remember, the SC result has about the same weight as the GA 06 result, and would have more impact in the House swing. The base would have been happy with a win, but I don't think this was again, a bad night, for Democrats. Losing GA 06 by 6 and losing SC by 15 would have been bad. Losing GA 06 by 2 and losing SC by 3 is not a bad night at all.

Mixed, yeah, but the trend remains positive for the Democratic Party.

Are you supporting the Dems now?

Temporarily; open to Pence if things fix up in the GOP. But my views don't really relate to my political views. (Which are pretty conservative)

[windjammer]

Has this been a general pattern in the past as well that special elections with higher turnout (GA-06) are much friendlier to the incumbent party than the ones with lower turnout that haven't really gotten any attention from the national parties (SC-05)?

Probably not, but I find it quite interesting (although not very surprising) that this happened here.

Well, I don't find that particularly surprising. People vote against and not for a candidate.

[Alabama_Indy10]

So much hate for Ossoff after considering him as a POTUS or VP candidate for 2024...after his successful Senate campaign in 2020.

[hueylong]

Worst part of a Handle victory (besides the inevitable obnoxious Trump tweets) would be Republicans in Congress feeling far more confident about going through with Ocare repeal. Everything else is secondary - still nothing to suggest anything but a positive environment for Dems and morale may dip for a little while but rebound soon enough.

[The Other Castro]

How does Trafalgar Group do it?

They got the Early Vote essentially correct (Ossoff +3), and the final margin looks to be dead on (Handel +2) at the moment.

I hate to do it, but hats off to Trafalgar tonight.

[jaichind]

Worst part of a Handle victory (besides the inevitable obnoxious Trump tweets) would be Republicans in Congress feeling far more confident about going through with Ocare repeal. Everything else is secondary - still nothing to suggest anything but a positive environment for Dems and morale may dip for a little while but rebound soon enough.

For me that would be the best part ...

[Green Line]

How does Trafalgar Group do it?

They got the Early Vote essentially correct (Ossoff +3), and the final margin looks to be dead on (Handel +2) at the moment.

Like I said after November, Trafalgar is the GOLD STANDARD.

[progressive85]

If Democrats think they're going to be taking the House in 2018, this is a district they'll likely need to win.  This is supposed to be their brand new "winning coalition" of educated whites.  Epic fail, IF they have in fact lost.

I'm not so sure that winning Republican districts is going to help Democrats.  What Ds need are swing seats and a fair redistricting process for 2022.  They might not win back the House until 2022 when a new map is produced.

"fair"

As opposed to whatever you call this:

[GlobeSoc]

Worst part of a Handle victory (besides the inevitable obnoxious Trump tweets) would be Republicans in Congress feeling far more confident about going through with Ocare repeal. Everything else is secondary - still nothing to suggest anything but a positive environment for Dems and morale may dip for a little while but rebound soon enough.

For me that would be the best part ...

Of course you say that

[The Other Castro]

Biggest questions remaining:

1. Can Ossoff perform better in the remaining DeKalb areas?
2. Can Ossoff win the mail in votes by a massive margin?

If yes to both, he could still have a chance.

[TheSaint250]

If Democrats think they're going to be taking the House in 2018, this is a district they'll likely need to win.  This is supposed to be their brand new "winning coalition" of educated whites.  Epic fail, IF they have in fact lost.

I'm not so sure that winning Republican districts is going to help Democrats.  What Ds need are swing seats and a fair redistricting process for 2022.  They might not win back the House until 2022 when a new map is produced.

"fair"

As opposed to whatever you call this:

I knew something like this was coming. Republicans gerrymander. Everyone does. Not one gives a s*** about fairness when you can give your party control of the country.

[GGover]

Wait, so did Handel improve upon Trump's margin?

[Cory]

You might gain some that way, but you might also lose some.  I know some GA-6 voters who were attracted by his attempt to run a civil campaign, especially after all the negativity last year.

And we see how much that counted for.

It's time for Democrats to embrace GOP-style tactics of personal destruction. Stop being a bunch of pussies and do what it takes to win. The Obama 2012 campaign was a step in the right direction.

[Beet]

So in all 4 congressional special elections, the Democrats got 44-48% of the vote, yet the Republicans win 4-0 in terms of seats. A six year old can see that's not fair.

[TheSaint250]

Wait, so did Handel improve upon Trump's margin?

Yup

[TheSaint250]

So in all 4 congressional special elections, the Democrats got 44-48% of the vote, yet the Republicans win 4-0 in terms of seats. A six year old can see that's not fair.

A two year old can understand that 1 person who does better than the other wins

[Kamala]

Worst part of a Handle victory (besides the inevitable obnoxious Trump tweets) would be Republicans in Congress feeling far more confident about going through with Ocare repeal. Everything else is secondary - still nothing to suggest anything but a positive environment for Dems and morale may dip for a little while but rebound soon enough.

People deserve what they vote for.

Not to attack any of you directly, but many of us here in the small rural states are going to see our insurance rates go up by a lot more than those in more densely populated areas. It's a damn shame to see many of my neighbors going to struggle to find decent health insurance they can afford.

It really does suck that a rich suburban district in Georgia will end up affecting thousands here in the plains.