GA-06 and SC-05 election day & results thread

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

We think about 95,000 votes remain to be counted. We think Mr. Ossoff leads in that vote by about 1.4 points.

[swf541]

Georgia will swing toward Republicans from Trump's 2016 number.  So much for that Democrat wave.  

By this logic the Dems will sweep SC in 2018 and 2020

[Rookie Yinzer]

Say what you want about the district or either of the candidate's respective campaigns, but the fact that Dems will likely come up short in GA-06 bodes very, very badly for the Dems going into 2018.  The fact that so many Democrats, from top to bottom, were so invested in this race is going to sting for a long time and will negatively impact recruitment, fundraising and energy going forward.

Say what you want about the race being close, but a loss as a loss and it will be Karen Handel, not Ossoff, in all likelihood heading to DC.  This isn't the Olympics, second place doesn't mean anything in politics.  

No. All this says is that millions of dollars can't force a R +23 district into a Democrat one. This result is nothing short of disastrous for Republicans in districts won by Hillary Clinton or where the margin of victory is fewer than 10 points.

[ilikeverin]

Politico's model appears waaay off. Not sure what they were doing.

I think it doesn't include anything about turnout. So even if things shift, maybe Republican areas are just turning out more.

[AtorBoltox]

Georgia will swing toward Republicans from Trump's 2016 number.  So much for that Democrat wave.  

You might not have noticed, but this is a congressional race. The relevant comparison is to make is to compare today's result to the house race last year, not the Presidential result

[Pandaguineapig]

75% chance Ossoff moves out of State after this and becomes a lobbyist

[Chief Justice Keef]

About this whole 'chuck Pelosi to the curb' thing, you people do realise any other house leader would be just as demonised and hated by Republicans as Pelosi is?

Pelosi's unpopular pretty much nationwide. Why she's kept on as House leader for the Dems is beyond me.

[libertpaulian]

I see Ossoff going the way of Elizabeth Colbert and being forgotten as democrats find a new shiny object

At least she had her brother's fame to which she could cling.  Ossoff's nothing more than a pretty boy who got lucky that he made it this far.

[The Other Castro]

Sigh, gold standard Trafalgar wins again.

[GlobeSoc]

About this whole 'chuck Pelosi to the curb' thing, you people do realise any other house leader would be just as demonised and hated by Republicans as Pelosi is?

Her current hatred has had years to build up. In the dems current situation, it would be best to cycle through minority leaders every few years to prevent that kind of build up.

[JA]

Democrats should not have nationalized the GA-06 special election like they did. It was all to make the point that "muh college educated Whites" are the Democrats of the future and that we can forget about appealing to the White working class. Yet, SC-05 will be at least as close, if not closer, than GA-06 and it is a largely rural district that is 66.7% White and 28.6% African American.

[Matty]

Ossof drops below 40% in Cobb salad

[Roronoa D. Law]

About this whole 'chuck Pelosi to the curb' thing, you people do realise any other house leader would be just as demonised and hated by Republicans as Pelosi is?

Hard for republican run an ad with Tim Ryan when nobody knows who he is yet. What they going label him as Youngstown liberal or working class pimp

[MT Treasurer]

Karen Handel (Republican)    52.7%   97,202
Jon Ossoff (Democratic)    47.3%   87,155

[Brittain33]

Politico doesn't have a "model," they are straight up comparing results of completed precincts with April results. The flaw there is, I presume, new data from precincts where Handel isn't running behind April Rs.

[JJC]

Say what you want about the district or either of the candidate's respective campaigns, but the fact that Dems will likely come up short in GA-06 bodes very, very badly for the Dems going into 2018.  The fact that so many Democrats, from top to bottom, were so invested in this race is going to sting for a long time and will negatively impact recruitment, fundraising and energy going forward.

Say what you want about the race being close, but a loss as a loss and it will be Karen Handel, not Ossoff, in all likelihood heading to DC.  This isn't the Olympics, second place doesn't mean anything in politics.  

lol

GOP brought all their heavyweights to campaign for Handel. Ossoff only brought John Lewis.

R's can try to spin this all they want, but at the end of the day, these are massive swings for Democrats. On top of that we have strong recruitment and fundraising has already topped last year numbers.

Dems spent 30 million in a district Trump won by 1%.

That's not good.

[AtorBoltox]

About this whole 'chuck Pelosi to the curb' thing, you people do realise any other house leader would be just as demonised and hated by Republicans as Pelosi is?

Hard for republican run an ad with Tim Ryan when nobody knows who he is yet. What they going label him as Youngstown liberal or working class pimp

It's not a good idea to rely on a strategy that will only work for a few months, a year at most

[JA]

About this whole 'chuck Pelosi to the curb' thing, you people do realise any other house leader would be just as demonised and hated by Republicans as Pelosi is?

Pelosi's unpopular pretty much nationwide. Why she's kept on as House leader for the Dems is beyond me.

She's a fairly good parliamentary leader and can organize and discipline her caucus incredibly well. That is what makes her popular among Democrats in Congress. Unfortunately, they completely ignore her unpopularity and the dangers of her symbolic association with the party across the country.

[hueylong]

Pelosi is good at her job.

Demonstrably far more competent than Ryan, in that she can actually get her people to fall in line and vote and pass legislation on a consistent basis.

That's why she's there, and why she'll likely be there for the foreseeable future.

[Yank2133]

Say what you want about the district or either of the candidate's respective campaigns, but the fact that Dems will likely come up short in GA-06 bodes very, very badly for the Dems going into 2018.  The fact that so many Democrats, from top to bottom, were so invested in this race is going to sting for a long time and will negatively impact recruitment, fundraising and energy going forward.

Say what you want about the race being close, but a loss as a loss and it will be Karen Handel, not Ossoff, in all likelihood heading to DC.  This isn't the Olympics, second place doesn't mean anything in politics.  

lol

GOP brought all their heavyweights to campaign for Handel. Ossoff only brought John Lewis.

R's can try to spin this all they want, but at the end of the day, these are massive swings for Democrats. On top of that we have strong recruitment and fundraising has already topped last year numbers.

Dems spent 30 million in a district Trump won by 1%.

That's not good.

A district that hasn't voted for a Democrat since the 1970s.

[swf541]

Say what you want about the district or either of the candidate's respective campaigns, but the fact that Dems will likely come up short in GA-06 bodes very, very badly for the Dems going into 2018.  The fact that so many Democrats, from top to bottom, were so invested in this race is going to sting for a long time and will negatively impact recruitment, fundraising and energy going forward.

Say what you want about the race being close, but a loss as a loss and it will be Karen Handel, not Ossoff, in all likelihood heading to DC.  This isn't the Olympics, second place doesn't mean anything in politics.  

lol

GOP brought all their heavyweights to campaign for Handel. Ossoff only brought John Lewis.

R's can try to spin this all they want, but at the end of the day, these are massive swings for Democrats. On top of that we have strong recruitment and fundraising has already topped last year numbers.

Dems spent 30 million in a district Trump won by 1%.

That's not good.

Your ignoring PVI and comparing apples to oranges you should be comparing the congressional results not the presidential results.

Dems shouldnt have nationalized this race

[JJC]

Assuming there are still about 20k mail-in ballots left, and we give 75% to Ossoff, that will net him about 10k over Handel.

That won't be enough.

[Green Line]

If Democrats think they're going to be taking the House in 2018, this is a district they'll likely need to win.  This is supposed to be their brand new "winning coalition" of educated whites.  Epic fail, IF they have in fact lost.

[krazen1211]

Is this Ossoff fellow going to finish behind his round 1 percentage? Haha.

[Suburbia]

Stephen Lynch or Mike Capuano, or Cheri Bustos would be good House Democratic Leaders. When Richard Gephardt knew that he had to leave the Democratic stage in 2002, he did, but ran for president foolishly in 2004 (he would have been a good VP for Kerry).

Pelosi may have to step down in 2018, or 2020. But I can see her still there by 2022. She is a tough woman, but she should step aside. Steny Hoyer and Jim Clyburn as well.