GA-06 and SC-05 election day & results thread

[krazen1211]

Irrelevant.

Firstly, the District lines have changed significantly.

Secondly, I can just as easily point to dems district that swung massively to the GOP. There are two sides to this coin.

Trump fundamentally changed the electorate. The only thing this result shows is that this change is here to stay.

Which is not good news fro Democrats.

Pre Barry, the Dem party held SC-05 for over a century. Bill Clinton was competitive in the district. And unlike GA-06 it hasn't moved around the state.

[Umengus]

Karen Handel (Republican)  53.2% 104,223
Jon Ossoff (Democratic)  46.8% 91,657

195,880 Total Votes

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Handel's lead is now over 5 points

[Chief Justice Keef]

After KS-04 and MT-AL, I felt kinda bullish in saying "well in hindsight maybe the DCCC should've contributed more to these races", but this just has me feeling glum.

[Yank2133]

Pass what legislation...the Dems havent been able to pass anything since 2010

Yeah after they lost control of the House. Don't be a 5 year old.

And they lost the house because of Nancy Pelosi

Pelosi needs to step aside and train a new guy her so called parliamentary genius then

lol, how was it Pelosi fault?

[Green Line]

13,000 raw vote lead.  Sad!

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

We think about 78,000 votes remain to be counted. We think Mr. Ossoff leads in that vote by about 6.1 points.

[BudgieForce]

This is getting embarrassing.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Okay for the record with that inevitable attack line about Ossoff's money Reps outspent him in this race and more come from out of state then Jon

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[henster]

Pelosi needs to GO like now she has been used in all of these specials and it seems to be effective.

[JJC]

Say what you want about the district or either of the candidate's respective campaigns, but the fact that Dems will likely come up short in GA-06 bodes very, very badly for the Dems going into 2018.  The fact that so many Democrats, from top to bottom, were so invested in this race is going to sting for a long time and will negatively impact recruitment, fundraising and energy going forward.

Say what you want about the race being close, but a loss as a loss and it will be Karen Handel, not Ossoff, in all likelihood heading to DC.  This isn't the Olympics, second place doesn't mean anything in politics.  

lol

GOP brought all their heavyweights to campaign for Handel. Ossoff only brought John Lewis.

R's can try to spin this all they want, but at the end of the day, these are massive swings for Democrats. On top of that we have strong recruitment and fundraising has already topped last year numbers.

Dems spent 30 million in a district Trump won by 1%.

That's not good.

A district that hasn't voted for a Democrat since the 1970s.

Irrelevant.

Firstly, the District lines have changed significantly.

Secondly, I can just as easily point to dems district that swung massively to the GOP. There are two sides to this coin.

Trump fundamentally changed the electorate. The only thing this result shows is that this change is here to stay.

Which is not good news fro Democrats.

Huh? A district that has voted GOP since the 70s voting GOP again shows 'a fundamental change in the electorate'?

The district went 60-40 for Romney.

It's a very affluent, upper class white district. They swung hard to the left in the last election.

Meanwhile, blue collar, white working class voters swung massively to the GOP, especially in the rust belt.

Both of these groups used to be staples of their respective party. Now they are flipping. That's the change.

I will note; there are far more white working class voters than college educated white. Not a good trade off for dems.

[The_Doctor]

On balance, GA 06 isn't great but SC 05 is a promising sign for the Democrats in 2018. The GOP can't spend $30 million in every district and it means that uncontested seats next year could swing in a wave election.

GA isn't great, but given that Romney won the district by 23%, GA's trend to the Democratic Party is very promising for them. It seems that 47% of the district is now committed to voting Democratic and Handel isn't necessarily safe.  

So two safe GOP seats (historically) became very marginal GOP victories. And if I recall, the GOP had a year like this in 2009 before their wave in 2010.

[Dr. Arch]

Ossoff better hope those mail votes are like 80-20 Dem

Exactly when are these going to be factored in?

[swf541]

If Democrats think they're going to be taking the House in 2018, this is a district they'll likely need to win.  This is supposed to be their brand new "winning coalition" of educated whites.  Epic fail.

No its not this would be a dems having a 50 seat majority seat

False

LOL ok well your posts in this thread so far have been insubstansive a so not sure why i continue to bother to reply but if i was head of the DCCC this would be on the extra seat list to take the house.  Actually i think dems need to focus on the rust belt and parts of Appalachia for 2018, in particular WV-2,3 and I think its KY-6 (the one in eastern kentucky dems had til 2012).

The seat has an R+8 PVI and the SC seat is actually imo much more alarming for the GOP considering it should not have swing much at all it should be an inelastic rural southern seat unless im missing some unique faceat of this district.

[TheSaint250]

I like how this thread became liberals vs Pelosi.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Politico has deactivated their model, per Nate Silver

[Cory]

Ossoff better hope those mail votes are like 80-20 Dem

Exactly when are these going to be factored in?

Yeah seriously what's the hold up?

[AtorBoltox]

Also, to the hacks saying this means Democrats are doomed in 2018, in 2009 the GOP won none of the five congressional elections held that year, and in fact that Democrats actually picked up a seat. All the signs continue to point towards a Dem wave in 2018

[The Other Castro]

The mail ins for DeKalb are coming soon, per DDHQ.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

If Democrats think they're going to be taking the House in 2018, this is a district they'll likely need to win.  This is supposed to be their brand new "winning coalition" of educated whites.  Epic fail.

No its not this would be a dems having a 50 seat majority seat

False

LOL ok well your posts in this thread so far have been insubstansive a so not sure why i continue to bother to reply but if i was head of the DCCC this would be on the extra seat list to take the house.  Actually i think dems need to focus on the rust belt and parts of Appalachia for 2018, in particular WV-2,3 and I think its KY-6 (the one in eastern kentucky dems had til 2012).

The seat has an R+8 PVI and the SC seat is actually imo much more alarming for the GOP considering it should not have swing much at all it should be an inelastic rural southern seat unless im missing some unique faceat of this district.

Extremely low turnout- Republicans didn't show up to the polls, thinking it to be a safe seat

[Kamala]

If Democrats think they're going to be taking the House in 2018, this is a district they'll likely need to win.  This is supposed to be their brand new "winning coalition" of educated whites.  Epic fail.

No its not this would be a dems having a 50 seat majority seat

False

LOL ok well your posts in this thread so far have been insubstansive a so not sure why i continue to bother to reply but if i was head of the DCCC this would be on the extra seat list to take the house.  Actually i think dems need to focus on the rust belt and parts of Appalachia for 2018, in particular WV-2,3 and I think its KY-6 (the one in eastern kentucky dems had til 2012).

The seat has an R+8 PVI and the SC seat is actually imo much more alarming for the GOP considering it should not have swing much at all it should be an inelastic rural southern seat unless im missing some unique faceat of this district.

Hmm, I read somewhere that the DCCC was trying to recruit Jim Gray for KY-06.

And I agree - with Ojeda, WV-03 is in the scope of winnability. WV-02 has a weak incumbent in Mooney, who I think would get washed out if it's a reverse 2010 wave.

[Yank2133]

Pass what legislation...the Dems havent been able to pass anything since 2010

Yeah after they lost control of the House. Don't be a 5 year old.

And they lost the house because of Nancy Pelosi

Pelosi needs to step aside and train a new guy her so called parliamentary genius then

lol, how was it Pelosi fault?

Because shes red meat for the GOP base. Nothing gets the geezers out of the mobile home park and to the voting booth than sticking Pelosi's face on an attack ad

These people would give up SS and Medicare to get Pelosi out of office

lol, they lost their majority because of the ACA and Obama backlash.

Serously, stop trying to revise history.

[Webnicz]

I guess dems will have to wait until the NJ or VA gubernatorial elections for any big wins, sad night for them.

I will say Pelosi should retire, the GOP has used her in so many dark money sponsored ads and is quite effective, it is literally their most effective strategy other than fear mongering like the scalise shooting ad.

[JJC]

Say what you want about the district or either of the candidate's respective campaigns, but the fact that Dems will likely come up short in GA-06 bodes very, very badly for the Dems going into 2018.  The fact that so many Democrats, from top to bottom, were so invested in this race is going to sting for a long time and will negatively impact recruitment, fundraising and energy going forward.

Say what you want about the race being close, but a loss as a loss and it will be Karen Handel, not Ossoff, in all likelihood heading to DC.  This isn't the Olympics, second place doesn't mean anything in politics.  

This doesn't bode very badly lol. Just last November, this district was 62-38 R. If the swing in GA-06 was replicated nationally the Democrats would easily take the house

If only Dems had 20 million to drop in every district

The point is, the Dems went all-in for a district Trump only won by one percentage point and still managed to lose to a deeply flawed Republican who had emerged from a fractured field while their candidate was pretty much a blank slate that tried to run exactly down this district's middle.

And to Ossoff's credit, he actually ran a competent campaign too.