UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[Meclazine for Israel]

[Meclazine for Israel]

Now that Salisbury has got the world's attention as the number one destination for tourists in the UK, I think it is a suitable time for the local Italian restaurants to life their game.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-17/two-people-ill-in-salisbury-where-former-spy-was-poisoned/10254318

The Bacon Carbonara in Cream Sauce is to die for.

[Blair]

If anyone cares Vince Cable managed to wet himself in public today by calling Brexit an 'exotic Spresm' after it was briefed overnight he'd call it an 'erotic spasm'.

Very thick of it, and very Lib Dem.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If anyone cares Vince Cable managed to wet himself in public today by calling Brexit an 'exotic Spresm' after it was briefed overnight he'd call it an 'erotic spasm'.

Very thick of it, and very Lib Dem.

CLIMB THE MOUNTAIN OF CONFLICT

[Antonio the Sixth]

lol, the entitlement on the Tories' part is truly pathetic. But then again, entitlement has been the core value of the Tories' social base for almost three centuries now.

[Lord Halifax]

lol, the entitlement on the Tories' part is truly pathetic. But then again, entitlement has been the core value of the Tories' social base for almost three centuries now.

What historical event are you referring to?

[Silent Hunter]

https://twitter.com/jamesmatesitv/status/1042498821262139393

^^ well the Island of Ireland was carved into two in a sectarian way ?!

Also, the Nazis did occupy the Channel Islands.

[parochial boy]

https://twitter.com/jamesmatesitv/status/1042498821262139393

^^ well the Island of Ireland was carved into two in a sectarian way ?!

Also, the Nazis did occupy the Channel Islands.

Neither Ireland nor Jersey and Guernsey would be part of Britain though...

[cp]

... moving on from the trivialities, this could be the beginning of the end of May, this government, and possibly Brexit.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45586010

[DaWN]

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1042806209240342528?s=19

^^ well 🤓

To the surprise of precisely nobody.

[Antonio the Sixth]

lolmaylol

lol, the entitlement on the Tories' part is truly pathetic. But then again, entitlement has been the core value of the Tories' social base for almost three centuries now.

What historical event are you referring to?

Not one specific historical event, but the modern Tories emerged in the mid-18th century didn't they (I know there was a Tory party in the days of the Stuarts, but it wasn't really the same)?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Everyone with a brain saw this happening a year ago when we signed up to the backstop. If May wasn't an incompetent fantasist she would have spent 2018 preparing her own party for a border in the Irish sea, but after months of telling everyone who would listen that would be a threat to our constitutional integrity she has zero room to maneuver. So the only thing May can do is plow blindly on with Chequers and hope something comes up.

Fortunately we'll have a general election soon and a Labour-led government to solve it.

[Silent Hunter]

An early general election requires a successful no-confidence vote or a 2/3 vote in the Commons.

[DaWN]

The idea that May is going to call a general election after what happened last time is pretty fanciful. I can't tell if Corbyn's insistence on one is either a cover tactic so after the fact he can go 'at I least I tried guvnor' or whether he really is delusional enough to think that May is going to call an election because he wants one.

[cp]

Corbyn absolutely wants an election. He probably anticipates (rightly) that an election pre-March 2019 will expose fatal fractures in the Tory party; Labour would win by default. He likely sees this as a chance to impose a far more leftward set of policies than has been politically tolerable for decades.

Silent Hunter's correct about the parliamentary mechanics of calling an early vote, but at this stage they are little more than ceremony. If a true political crisis materializes - one where the May government (or a rapidly installed Tory replacement) has excluded all options save a no-Deal crash out - then the financial, constitutional, and social tumult that would accompany such a situation would compel a drastic reassessment. An election wouldn't be guaranteed, but the obstacle to it would not be parliamentary arithmetic.

[IceAgeComing]

Also opposition leaders always call for early elections all of the time no matter how the government is doing because not doing so makes them look weak which isn’t what they want.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

The idea that May is going to call a general election after what happened last time is pretty fanciful.

It's not about what May wants. If no Brexit deal can get through parliament then there's no alternative.

[cp]

The idea that May is going to call a general election after what happened last time is pretty fanciful.

It's not about what May wants. If no Brexit deal can get through parliament then there's no alternative.

Ok, so my desire to get the Tories out of office and Corbyn in agree with you, as does the 'common sense' part of my brain that figures, like you, that they must have an election if they can't pass a Brexit deal because all other options will have been exhausted ...

... but I honestly cannot imagine the Tories in that situation willingly abdicating their power and submitting to an election they would not only likely lose, but lose in such a way that their party and its ideology (or at least its Eurosceptic aspects) would fall into eclipse for a generation. I have no idea what they could or would do instead, but as the saying goes: turkeys don't vote for Christmas.

At the very least, I see the sequence of events leading to an election before March 2019 to be far less likely than the sequence of events that would see the ERG and/or DUP capitulate and accept the Irish backstop, with an agreement barely squeaking through in parliament. I hope I'm wrong on that, though.

[Lord Halifax]

The idea that May is going to call a general election after what happened last time is pretty fanciful.

It's not about what May wants. If no Brexit deal can get through parliament then there's no alternative.

Ok, so my desire to get the Tories out of office and Corbyn in agree with you, as does the 'common sense' part of my brain that figures, like you, that they must have an election if they can't pass a Brexit deal because all other options will have been exhausted ...

... but I honestly cannot imagine the Tories in that situation willingly abdicating their power and submitting to an election they would not only likely lose, but lose in such a way that their party and its ideology (or at least its Eurosceptic aspects) would fall into eclipse for a generation. I have no idea what they could or would do instead, but as the saying goes: turkeys don't vote for Christmas.

At the very least, I see the sequence of events leading to an election before March 2019 to be far less likely than the sequence of events that would see the ERG and/or DUP capitulate and accept the Irish backstop, with an agreement barely squeaking through in parliament. I hope I'm wrong on that, though.

Who are they?

[cp]

The idea that May is going to call a general election after what happened last time is pretty fanciful.

It's not about what May wants. If no Brexit deal can get through parliament then there's no alternative.

Ok, so my desire to get the Tories out of office and Corbyn in agree with you, as does the 'common sense' part of my brain that figures, like you, that they must have an election if they can't pass a Brexit deal because all other options will have been exhausted ...

... but I honestly cannot imagine the Tories in that situation willingly abdicating their power and submitting to an election they would not only likely lose, but lose in such a way that their party and its ideology (or at least its Eurosceptic aspects) would fall into eclipse for a generation. I have no idea what they could or would do instead, but as the saying goes: turkeys don't vote for Christmas.

At the very least, I see the sequence of events leading to an election before March 2019 to be far less likely than the sequence of events that would see the ERG and/or DUP capitulate and accept the Irish backstop, with an agreement barely squeaking through in parliament. I hope I'm wrong on that, though.

Who are they?

ERG in this context stands for the European Research Group, an informal collection of Europhobic Tory MP zealots. It was formed back in the 90s, but for the past 5 years they have been the unofficial policy mouthpiece on Brexit within the Tory Party, with (regrettably) ever greater influence and power.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

[...] as the saying goes: turkeys don't vote for Christmas.

They do if the only other choice is Thanksgiving. (At least here in the U.S. they would.)

[DaWN]

The idea that May is going to call a general election after what happened last time is pretty fanciful.

It's not about what May wants. If no Brexit deal can get through parliament then there's no alternative.

It's absolutely about what May wants because she's the Prime Minister and she commands a majority in the House of Commons. Of course, divisions over Brexit might put an end to that majority, but it's pretty unlikely to galvanise 2/3rds of the House against her. If no deal can get through Parliament, then May will shrug her shoulders and the Tories will lead us through a no-deal Brexit. It would obviously be a disaster, but when was the last time the Tories put national interest over their own self-survival? (And of course, disaster may well be unavoidable at this point anyway.)

[Statilius the Epicurean]

It's absolutely about what May wants because she's the Prime Minister and she commands a majority in the House of Commons. Of course, divisions over Brexit might put an end to that majority, but it's pretty unlikely to galvanise 2/3rds of the House against her.

Except a motion of no confidence only needs a majority.

There is no majority in Parliament for a deal. There is no majority in Parliament for no deal either. Therefore, the dissolution of Parliament is inevitable.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Would the Tories let May call a new election over Brexit? After all, that's been done before. How well did that end up?

[DaWN]

It's absolutely about what May wants because she's the Prime Minister and she commands a majority in the House of Commons. Of course, divisions over Brexit might put an end to that majority, but it's pretty unlikely to galvanise 2/3rds of the House against her.

Except a motion of no confidence only needs a majority.

There is no majority in Parliament for a deal. There is no majority in Parliament for no deal either. Therefore, the dissolution of Parliament is inevitable.

What reason would any Tory MP have to vote down their own government? I have no doubt some of them despise May and her Brexit strategy from both sides of the spectrum, and will happily vote down her or any deal, but not a single one of them is going to vote against their own government on a confidence motion and risk PM Corbyn. As for the DUP, they certainly wouldn't risk that.

Again, it doesn't matter if there's no majority for a deal. The Tories are self-preservationists and will happily enact Brexit without so much as a leaving postcard if it keeps them in government.