UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[Statilius the Epicurean]

What reason would any Tory MP have to vote down their own government?

Err, 12 Tory MPs already voted against the government on the Customs Union when they were told a defeat would mean a snap election, and the government only scraped through thanks to Labour rebels. And that was after they bought off most of the rebels by asking for time to get Chequers through.

In a straight choice between a snap election and the economic carnage of no deal there will be dozens of Tory MPs rebelling, even assuming the government would go for it (which they wouldn't for the above reason).

[Silent Hunter]

It's absolutely about what May wants because she's the Prime Minister and she commands a majority in the House of Commons. Of course, divisions over Brexit might put an end to that majority, but it's pretty unlikely to galvanise 2/3rds of the House against her.

Except a motion of no confidence only needs a majority.

And an explicit vote within no new government winning a confidence motion within 14 days.

[cp]

And at the risk of being pedantic, May does not command a majority in the house. She leads a minority government that has a confidence and supply arrangement with the DUP that supplies a slim and quite obviously conditional majority of the House for the time being.

[Silent Hunter]

And at the risk of being pedantic, May does not command a majority in the house. She leads a minority government that has a confidence and supply arrangement with the DUP that supplies a slim and quite obviously conditional majority of the House for the time being.

And there is no majority against her as the DUP are not going to risk put Corbyn in Number 10 and the SNP don't want to risk losing more seats.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

And at the risk of being pedantic, May does not command a majority in the house. She leads a minority government that has a confidence and supply arrangement with the DUP that supplies a slim and quite obviously conditional majority of the House for the time being.

And there is no majority against her as the DUP are not going to risk put Corbyn in Number 10 and the SNP don't want to risk losing more seats.

Do you really think the SNP want to get the reputation as a party that saves the hated Tory government?

[Silent Hunter]

And at the risk of being pedantic, May does not command a majority in the house. She leads a minority government that has a confidence and supply arrangement with the DUP that supplies a slim and quite obviously conditional majority of the House for the time being.

And there is no majority against her as the DUP are not going to risk put Corbyn in Number 10 and the SNP don't want to risk losing more seats.

Do you really think the SNP want to get the reputation as a party that saves the hated Tory government?

True, but they might abstain...

[Angel of Death]

And at the risk of being pedantic, May does not command a majority in the house. She leads a minority government that has a confidence and supply arrangement with the DUP that supplies a slim and quite obviously conditional majority of the House for the time being.

And there is no majority against her as the DUP are not going to risk put Corbyn in Number 10 and the SNP don't want to risk losing more seats.

Do you really think the SNP want to get the reputation as a party that saves the hated Tory government?

Never mind that. How about a reputation of not having done everything in their power to soften Brexit as much as possible, if not outright stop it, for which a Labour government is one's best bet?

[Silent Hunter]

Doesn't a harder Brexit strengthen their case for IndyRef 2?

[EPG]

Hang on a second - PM Corbyn is not something that can legally happen tomorrow, in almost any circumstances.

A vote of no confidence can simply be followed by a general election with Theresa May as PM. That contains the risk of PM Corbyn, but far from a certainty given recent developments. He also starts out needing a larger winning margin of MPs than your average Labour Party leader. I don't believe every Labour MP today would vote for a Corbyn Queen's Speech.

Second, May's threat to resign at any time while not instructing the Queen to dissolve Parliament does exist. However, it would probably not lead to PM Corbyn. The Queen simply cannot appoint a person who would probably fail to command a majority of the Commons. Rather a caretaker Conservative or non-party prime minister, like Lord Hague, who could command a majority long enough to appoint a Conservative leader, who becomes PM and almost certainly calls an election. And, yes, they will rip up the rule-book in that situation. Then, of course, PM Corbyn is more likely than in scenario one, but scenario one is itself more likely.

[Silent Hunter]

Corbyn's personal approval ratings are pretty dire and those have been better guides to the result in the last two elections than straight party choice polling.

[Silent Hunter]

Another thing, Poland has been able to cherry pick as well... it's got an opt out from the Charter of Fundamental Rights, like the UK and it doesn't use the Euro.

[IceAgeComing]

And at the risk of being pedantic, May does not command a majority in the house. She leads a minority government that has a confidence and supply arrangement with the DUP that supplies a slim and quite obviously conditional majority of the House for the time being.

And there is no majority against her as the DUP are not going to risk put Corbyn in Number 10 and the SNP don't want to risk losing more seats.

Do you really think the SNP want to get the reputation as a party that saves the hated Tory government?

True, but they might abstain...

I can guarantee 100% that the SNP vote to defeat the government.  If they abstain it'd kill them - just look back at the aftermath of 1979 for the party; the charge that they were basically Tories for voting to defeat the Labour government lasted an incredibly long time and hurt them for very long as well.

[parochial boy]

Well you gotta admire the British right-wingers' apparent willingness to blow the whole country up just to show Jonny Foreigner eh?

[cp]

Well you gotta admire the British right-wingers' apparent willingness to blow the whole country up just to show Jonny Foreigner eh?

and to have the chutzpah to say it's happening because the EU is being mean.

[Silent Hunter]

Another thing, Poland has been able to cherry pick as well... it's got an opt out from the Charter of Fundamental Rights, like the UK and it doesn't use the Euro.

This is not about Poland though!!
It's about the President of the European council belittling a UK PM who happen to have type 1 diabetes and he might've seen her leave the negotiations room at least once to inject insulin(she once said she injects insulin 4 times a day). One would expect this behaviour from Trump or some fringe politician....

It is about Poland as well, because Donald Tusk used to be Prime Minister of Poland when he chose not to end the country's opt out from the Charter of Fundamental Rights. They're supposed to join the Euro and still haven't set a date for it.

[Silent Hunter]

Yes. This is the kind of move that Donald Trump or the former Greek finance minister does. Not conducive to negotiations at all.

[EPG]

Leavers care about Leave, Remainers don't care about Remain, on average. Politics serves the people who care. If this is true before Labour enters government, it will be equally true after Labour enters government.

I'd say when the SNP voted against the Callaghan government, this was both expected in an oppositional culture like the UK HoC, and didn't hurt the SNP so much as the strength of the Scottish economy under Thatcher, comparable to the south-east of England but with more loss of heavy industry.

[Intell]

I thought the labor right was about winning elections and triangulation and not a committed ideology as that loses votes.
 
It's almost if they never wanted socialism and thwarted that in the name of "electoral politics" but love the EU and want to thwart Brexit despite "electoral politics"

[Silent Hunter]

We did use to be separate countries to Scotland after all.

[Blair]

Audrey could you not post so many pictures and newspaper headlines- it's clogging up the thread to the extent that my ipad seems to die everytime I try and reply.

What reason would any Tory MP have to vote down their own government?

Err, 12 Tory MPs already voted against the government on the Customs Union when they were told a defeat would mean a snap election, and the government only scraped through thanks to Labour rebels. And that was after they bought off most of the rebels by asking for time to get Chequers through.

In a straight choice between a snap election and the economic carnage of no deal there will be dozens of Tory MPs rebelling, even assuming the government would go for it (which they wouldn't for the above reason).

Have to disagree with this- the 12 MP's rebelled because they knew that the Chief Whip was lying when he said it would lead to an early general election.

There's essentially three issues that need solving, and whilst connected they can be dealt with without leading to the next,

1.) The PM- it's possible to ditch Theresa May without anything else happening.

2.) Brexit- Parliament can still vote against the final deal (or vote against exiting on no-deal terms)

3.) The Government- even if the above two change, it's still possible to keep the current government in power e.g tories pissed off with either a hard or soft brexit, or the PM can change these whilst keeping the government afloat.

[EPG]

I like Audrey's pictures as they keep thread focused on current affairs that are happening.

[cp]

Audrey could you not post so many pictures and newspaper headlines- it's clogging up the thread to the extent that my ipad seems to die everytime I try and reply.

I wasn't going to say anything because I figured it was just me, but yeah. Please bring down the imagery volume, Audrey

[Blair]

I like Audrey's pictures as they keep thread focused on current affairs that are happening.

I much prefer discussion/debate and actual engagement- if you want to focus on current affairs just open BBC/Guardian, or twitter.

And forgot to mention it earlier but the idea that Donald Tusk (or the staffer who posted it) was making some sort of insult about TM being diabetic is about as stupid as those in Maomentum who said that Chukka Umunna was calling Labour members dogs after he told JC to 'call off the dogs'.

It was clearly a reference to 'cherry picking alone', and frankly after the years of obtuse, and cringe worthy attacks on the EU from our own press (Up yours Delors) I think we shouldn't get so outraged by an Instagram post.

[Angel of Death]

At the risk of repeating myself, I still don't understand why Theresa May triggered Article 50 before calling a general election purely from a politically strategically point of view. Leave might have won with only a slim majority, but, at the time, many Remainers were also in favor of at least respecting the referendum result. The Tories could have campaigned against Labour's unclear position, conveying the idea they might possibly not follow through with Brexit themselves.

[Silent Hunter]

The EU basically said that they would not engage in negotiations on withdrawal until Article 50 was triggered. Also, Corbyn had called for A50 to be triggered straight after the referendum!