UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[Filuwaúrdjan]

May had about 15 chances to sack him; will easily go down in History as the worst foreign secretary in British History (which is an achievement in a sense)

Impossible to be worse than Edward Grey, but possibly the worst since him which is quite an achievement given some of the other holders of the post...

[kelestian]

Also i must say, Theresa looks like an incompetent and weak leader. also not a good orator (not as Cameron). Tory establishment shouldn't have nominated her at first place. They should have more democratic leadership election in 2016

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

What’s next?

[Lachi]

What’s next?

Gove resigning hopefully

[Statilius the Epicurean]

General election soon, friends!

May had about 15 chances to sack him; will easily go down in History as the worst foreign secretary in British History (which is an achievement in a sense)

Impossible to be worse than Edward Grey, but possibly the worst since him which is quite an achievement given some of the other holders of the post...

Samuel Hoare was the brains behind a secret pact with Fascist Italy to carve up Abyssinia, but I'd agree that Boris is the worst foreign sec since the war.

[MAINEiac4434]

PRIME MINISTER CORBYN INCOMING

[junior chįmp]

Corbyn will win.
Sanders will win in 2020.

Realignment imminent

[Hnv1]

Rees-Mogg v. Corbyn. The queen must bricking it

[junior chįmp]

Channel 4: MPs expected to demand no confidence vote

[parochial boy]

Time to rename the country "Weimar Britain"?

[Blair]

Worth noting it's extremely difficult to get an early election unless the Prime Minister wants it. The Tories could switch leaders, change Brexit plans, or even slowly head towards no-deal all without anyone pulling the pin on the Election.

You not only need a vote of no-confidence in the Government, but you then have to wait 14 days for no new government to emerge. Basically either the Pro-Remain Tories (about 5-10 MP) or the Hard Brexiters (40 odd MPs) have to decide that Prime Minister Corbyn is worth the risk

[junior chįmp]

Worth noting it's extremely difficult to get an early election unless the Prime Minister wants it. The Tories could switch leaders, change Brexit plans, or even slowly head towards no-deal all without anyone pulling the pin on the Election.

You not only need a vote of no-confidence in the Government, but you then have to wait 14 days for no new government to emerge. Basically either the Pro-Remain Tories (about 5-10 MP) or the Hard Brexiters (40 odd MPs) have to decide that Prime Minister Corbyn is worth the risk

seems possible:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1016350766288789504

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Worth noting it's extremely difficult to get an early election unless the Prime Minister wants it. The Tories could switch leaders, change Brexit plans, or even slowly head towards no-deal all without anyone pulling the pin on the Election.

You not only need a vote of no-confidence in the Government, but you then have to wait 14 days for no new government to emerge. Basically either the Pro-Remain Tories (about 5-10 MP) or the Hard Brexiters (40 odd MPs) have to decide that Prime Minister Corbyn is worth the risk

If either group votes down a Brexit deal in the Commons, something which seems inevitable at the moment, then a general election has to happen.

[Blair]

Worth noting it's extremely difficult to get an early election unless the Prime Minister wants it. The Tories could switch leaders, change Brexit plans, or even slowly head towards no-deal all without anyone pulling the pin on the Election.

You not only need a vote of no-confidence in the Government, but you then have to wait 14 days for no new government to emerge. Basically either the Pro-Remain Tories (about 5-10 MP) or the Hard Brexiters (40 odd MPs) have to decide that Prime Minister Corbyn is worth the risk

seems possible:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1016350766288789504

Again, there's no requirement for a General Election if the Tories did ditch May. Heck they could even vote down a Brexit deal in the Commons, and then support the Government in a confidence vote.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Heck they could even vote down a Brexit deal in the Commons, and then support the Government in a confidence vote.

No government could survive a no deal Brexit, especially considering there is no majority in the Commons for one.

[MAINEiac4434]

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1016325745914851328?s=21

[cp]

Heck they could even vote down a Brexit deal in the Commons, and then support the Government in a confidence vote.

No government could survive a no deal Brexit, especially considering there is no majority in the Commons for one.

I completely agree, although Blair is technically correct (the best kind of correct!) that as far as procedure is concerned, there's no mechanism to trigger an election beyond those laid out in the Fixed Term Parliament Act of 2011. Those mechanisms (a straightforward vote of no-confidence followed by 14 days without a rescission thereof, or a 2/3 majority vote for a new election) are exceedingly difficult to manufacture in a haphazard or accidental way. I'm not saying they won't be used or that an early election isn't possible - it might just be likely at this point - just that it's a much more methodical process because of the FTPA.

I don't dare speculate about the possible sequence of events that will transpire in the next few days. May seems doomed, but that's been the case for so long now! Brexit will either be so soft it's not worth doing or there will be a coup by the kamikaze Brexiters to push a no-deal, which would never pass parliament. If they somehow stumble into an election in the next few weeks Corbyn will very likely win but probably on a manifesto and/or with a slim enough margin in the HoC to necessitate yet another Brexit-in-name-only option... which may itself not get approval in the Commons.

Thank goodness we didn't elect that unstable socialist 3 years ago, tho!

https://twitter.com/david_cameron/status/595112367358406656?lang=en

[Tintrlvr]

Heck they could even vote down a Brexit deal in the Commons, and then support the Government in a confidence vote.

No government could survive a no deal Brexit, especially considering there is no majority in the Commons for one.

I completely agree, although Blair is technically correct (the best kind of correct!) that as far as procedure is concerned, there's no mechanism to trigger an election beyond those laid out in the Fixed Term Parliament Act of 2011. Those mechanisms (a straightforward vote of no-confidence followed by 14 days without a rescission thereof, or a 2/3 majority vote for a new election) are exceedingly difficult to manufacture in a haphazard or accidental way. I'm not saying they won't be used or that an early election isn't possible - it might just be likely at this point - just that it's a much more methodical process because of the FTPA.

I don't dare speculate about the possible sequence of events that will transpire in the next few days. May seems doomed, but that's been the case for so long now! Brexit will either be so soft it's not worth doing or there will be a coup by the kamikaze Brexiters to push a no-deal, which would never pass parliament. If they somehow stumble into an election in the next few weeks Corbyn will very likely win but probably on a manifesto and/or with a slim enough margin in the HoC to necessitate yet another Brexit-in-name-only option... which may itself not get approval in the Commons.

Thank goodness we didn't elect that unstable socialist 3 years ago, tho!

https://twitter.com/david_cameron/status/595112367358406656?lang=en

It seems hard to imagine Corbyn handling Brexit any better. Not out of fault with Corbyn necessarily but because the fundamental problem is Brexit itself, not how politicians are handling implementing it. Short of a PM with the guts and desire to cancel Brexit (and Corbyn is not that person), any government would be an equal shambles.

(The only credit I'll give to Labour here is that their Remainer contingent is larger, and so a hypothetical Corbyn government might have been forced into cancelling Brexit against Corbyn's own will.)

[PeteB]

Rumors that Jeremy Hunt is to be the next Foreign Secretary.

From here:



To here:



Really?

[PeteB]

Rumors that Jeremy Hunt is to be the next Foreign Secretary.

From here:



To here:



Really?

In, 10 minutes before the queen :

The Queen has been pleased to approve the appointment of Rt Hon @Jeremy_Hunt as Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs.

[cp]

Boris replaced by Hunt. Davis replaced by Raab.

This feels like when a long running show that's past its prime replaces half the cast in a desperate effort to stay on the air.

Saved by the Brexit: The New Class.

[Cassius]

Against the odds Hunt managed to become the longest serving Health Secretary in British history prior to this appointment.

Really at this point DExEU should be folded back into the foreign office, given that the negotiations are clearly being handled by the PM’s office and Robbins, and with two of the ‘Three Brexiteers’ gone there’s no point in keeping what essentially was a Potemkin department going for the likes of Raab (who is hardly some ‘Big Beast’). Also, I’m increasingly thinking that Hunt may be the one who inherits the keys to the kingdom (well, the Tory party) when May finally keels over.

[cp]

Against the odds Hunt managed to become the longest serving Health Secretary in British history prior to this appointment.

Really at this point DExEU should be folded back into the foreign office, given that the negotiations are clearly being handled by the PM’s office and Robbins, and with two of the ‘Three Brexiteers’ gone there’s no point in keeping what essentially was a Potemkin department going for the likes of Raab (who is hardly some ‘Big Beast’). Also, I’m increasingly thinking that Hunt may be the one who inherits the keys to the kingdom (well, the Tory party) when May finally keels over.

Hunt could do it. Gove would be a better bet imho, but anything's possible if May falls. One thing I'm fairly sure of is that any new PM won't be in office longer than 6 months.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Against the odds Hunt managed to become the longest serving Health Secretary in British history prior to this appointment.

Really at this point DExEU should be folded back into the foreign office, given that the negotiations are clearly being handled by the PM’s office and Robbins, and with two of the ‘Three Brexiteers’ gone there’s no point in keeping what essentially was a Potemkin department going for the likes of Raab (who is hardly some ‘Big Beast’). Also, I’m increasingly thinking that Hunt may be the one who inherits the keys to the kingdom (well, the Tory party) when May finally keels over.

Possibly, but the term failing upwards comes to mind.

[Zinneke]

Did Mr Johnson really call May's proposal for the relationship between the UK and the EU akin to a colonial one?

This gets better and better...