State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 16, 2024, 05:11:33 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread		 « previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 71 72 73 74 75 [76] 77 78 79 80 81 ... 84
Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread  (Read 179515 times)
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,071


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1875 on: February 27, 2018, 07:40:02 PM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on February 27, 2018, 07:38:43 PM
Republican Cartier wins Laconia W6 with 201 to 182 for Dem Spagnuolo

This puts us at Dem 750, GOP 708.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,780


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1876 on: February 27, 2018, 07:40:25 PM »
This is going to be close.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,237


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1877 on: February 27, 2018, 07:40:41 PM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on February 27, 2018, 07:40:02 PM
Quote from: Oryxslayer on February 27, 2018, 07:38:43 PM
Republican Cartier wins Laconia W6 with 201 to 182 for Dem Spagnuolo

This puts us at Dem 750, GOP 708.

Any insight on which way the remaining ward leans?
Logged
Strudelcutie4427
Singletxguyforfun
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,375
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1878 on: February 27, 2018, 07:41:16 PM »
Quote from: Doctor Imperialism on February 27, 2018, 07:38:36 PM
Does anyone know how the New Hampshire district voted in 2016?

56 Trump 2 Party vote
Logged
LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1879 on: February 27, 2018, 07:41:33 PM »
51.5-48.5 for Spagnuolo (D) with the last ward uncounted.

Would represent a 17 point over performance from 2016 and a 2 point from 2012.
Logged
LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1880 on: February 27, 2018, 07:42:21 PM »
Quote from: Singletxguyforfun on February 27, 2018, 07:42:00 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on February 27, 2018, 07:40:41 PM
Quote from: Oryxslayer on February 27, 2018, 07:40:02 PM
Quote from: Oryxslayer on February 27, 2018, 07:38:43 PM
Republican Cartier wins Laconia W6 with 201 to 182 for Dem Spagnuolo

This puts us at Dem 750, GOP 708.

Any insight on which way the remaining ward leans?

Ward 3 is the most republican part of the city

Wrong.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,071


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1881 on: February 27, 2018, 07:42:30 PM »
W3 was LEFT apparently:

It's over: Dem Spagnuolo wins W3 218-133
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,175
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1882 on: February 27, 2018, 07:43:20 PM »
Spagnuolo wins 968-841.
Logged
Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,031
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1883 on: February 27, 2018, 07:43:23 PM »
And Spagnuolo (D) WINS #Belknap3 968-841
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,795
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1884 on: February 27, 2018, 07:44:16 PM »
Trump is killing the NH GOP.
Logged
LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1885 on: February 27, 2018, 07:44:30 PM »
Spagnuolo (D) wins 968-841, 53.5-46.5, representing a 20 point over performance on the 2016 presidential results and a 6 point over performance on the 2012 results.
Logged
Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,030


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1886 on: February 27, 2018, 07:44:38 PM »
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,071


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1887 on: February 27, 2018, 07:44:58 PM »
Dem wins 53.5% - 46.5%.  
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,580
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1888 on: February 27, 2018, 07:45:02 PM »
MTT was correct again about New Hampshire.
Logged
Strudelcutie4427
Singletxguyforfun
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,375
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1889 on: February 27, 2018, 07:45:21 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on February 27, 2018, 07:42:21 PM
Quote from: Singletxguyforfun on February 27, 2018, 07:42:00 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on February 27, 2018, 07:40:41 PM
Quote from: Oryxslayer on February 27, 2018, 07:40:02 PM
Quote from: Oryxslayer on February 27, 2018, 07:38:43 PM
Republican Cartier wins Laconia W6 with 201 to 182 for Dem Spagnuolo

This puts us at Dem 750, GOP 708.

Any insight on which way the remaining ward leans?

Ward 3 is the most republican part of the city

Wrong.

Yeah I was looking at a map of Portsmouth for some reason. Portsmouth Ward 3 looks big so I assumed it was the outskirts of Laconia. The towns actually look similar on aap
Logged
Strudelcutie4427
Singletxguyforfun
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,375
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1890 on: February 27, 2018, 07:46:12 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on February 27, 2018, 07:45:02 PM
MTT was correct again about New Hampshire.

I’m just waiting for him to be wrong so I can rub his face in it
Logged
Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,031
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1891 on: February 27, 2018, 07:48:17 PM »
Final margin in KY:

GOP holds KY's #HD89, winning it 67%-33%. Trump carried #HD89 by 62%, so that's still a net swing of 28% toward Dems.

(28% is also the average swing toward Dems in all 2018 special election so far combined, per @DKElections.)

LOL @ MT Treasurer saying this would be close.

MT's at 1-1 right now. CT will break the tie. Polls close at the top of the hour.
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,795
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1892 on: February 27, 2018, 07:48:26 PM »
Quote from: Singletxguyforfun on February 27, 2018, 07:46:12 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on February 27, 2018, 07:45:02 PM
MTT was correct again about New Hampshire.

I’m just waiting for him to be wrong so I can rub his face in it

At this point that would be an exception to the rule.

NH women are pissed. Tongue
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,921
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1893 on: February 27, 2018, 07:50:18 PM »

This is what I was thinking after seeing the final result. The NHGOP has lost most of the special elections so far, and by pretty decent swings. I think it's fair to say that their legislative majorities are in serious jeopardy. In fact I'd be pretty surprised if they still held either chamber by 2019. Their state Senate race margins were already pretty slim in 2016, and that was in a favorable environment for them.
Logged
Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,030


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1894 on: February 27, 2018, 07:50:56 PM »
Quote from: Holmes on February 27, 2018, 07:48:26 PM
Quote from: Singletxguyforfun on February 27, 2018, 07:46:12 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on February 27, 2018, 07:45:02 PM
MTT was correct again about New Hampshire.

I’m just waiting for him to be wrong so I can rub his face in it

At this point that would be an exception to the rule.

NH women are pissed. Tongue

Didn't he admit to being wrong in 2016, after Clinton and Hassan nearly lost there?
Logged
Holy Unifying Centrist
DTC
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,237


Political Matrix
E: 9.53, S: 10.54

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1895 on: February 27, 2018, 07:53:38 PM »
I still think Republicans narrowly take the CT seat, but we will see.
Logged
Former Kentuckian
Cal
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,166


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1896 on: February 27, 2018, 07:55:35 PM »
Quote from: Dwarven Dragon on February 27, 2018, 07:48:17 PM
Final margin in KY:

GOP holds KY's #HD89, winning it 67%-33%. Trump carried #HD89 by 62%, so that's still a net swing of 28% toward Dems.

(28% is also the average swing toward Dems in all 2018 special election so far combined, per @DKElections.)

LOL @ MT Treasurer saying this would be close.

MT's at 1-1 right now. CT will break the tie. Polls close at the top of the hour.

First time in my adulthood, and possibly ever, that a Democrat has ever received over 30% in that district. Democrats usually don't even contest that seat.
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,795
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1897 on: February 27, 2018, 07:56:02 PM »
Quote from: Doctor Imperialism on February 27, 2018, 07:50:56 PM
Quote from: Holmes on February 27, 2018, 07:48:26 PM
Quote from: Singletxguyforfun on February 27, 2018, 07:46:12 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on February 27, 2018, 07:45:02 PM
MTT was correct again about New Hampshire.

I’m just waiting for him to be wrong so I can rub his face in it

At this point that would be an exception to the rule.

NH women are pissed. Tongue

Didn't he admit to being wrong in 2016, after Clinton and Hassan nearly lost there?

No, he felt vindicated because they did win.
Logged
Devout Centrist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,158
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1898 on: February 27, 2018, 07:56:34 PM »
Quote from: Dwarven Dragon on February 27, 2018, 07:48:17 PM
LOL @ MT Treasurer saying this would be close.

MT's at 1-1 right now. CT will break the tie. Polls close at the top of the hour.
You're living inside a glass house, pal
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,780


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1899 on: February 27, 2018, 07:58:56 PM »
I cannot wait to see CT Dems increase their margin of control of the state House in a few minutes.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 71 72 73 74 75 [76] 77 78 79 80 81 ... 84  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.053 seconds with 12 queries.