State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread
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Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread  (Read 178488 times)
Holmes
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« Reply #1200 on: January 23, 2018, 11:25:36 PM »
The percentage of completed precincts went from 25% to 29% though.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1201 on: January 23, 2018, 11:43:00 PM »
Quote from: Holmes on January 23, 2018, 11:25:36 PM
The percentage of completed precincts went from 25% to 29% though.
That's voter turnout

Now at:

YES
60.88%
500,401
NO
39.12%
321,589
TOTAL VOTES
821,990
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Holmes
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« Reply #1202 on: January 23, 2018, 11:44:45 PM »
Quote from: Dwarven Dragon on January 23, 2018, 11:43:00 PM
Quote from: Holmes on January 23, 2018, 11:25:36 PM
The percentage of completed precincts went from 25% to 29% though.
That's voter turnout

Oh, I see. But maybe it's a better indicator in Oregon because it's all vote by mail?
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1203 on: January 23, 2018, 11:51:50 PM »
It's creeping back up to 61%. I think this measure will pass.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1204 on: January 23, 2018, 11:58:06 PM »
Quote from: Arch on January 23, 2018, 11:51:50 PM
It's creeping back up to 61%. I think this measure will pass.

It's definitely passing. Looking at county-by-county results, it's running ahead of Obama 2008 in every county reporting thus far except tiny Sherman County. Should end up about where the figures are right now.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1205 on: January 24, 2018, 12:06:09 AM »
162 OUT OF 1335 PRECINCTS REPORTED
YES
60.87%
516,717
NO
39.13%
332,233
TOTAL VOTES
848,950
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1206 on: January 24, 2018, 12:18:32 AM »
170 OUT OF 1335 PRECINCTS REPORTED
YES
60.84%
517,166
NO
39.16%
332,833
TOTAL VOTES
849,999
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1207 on: January 24, 2018, 12:24:26 AM »
Do dems want this thing in Oregon to pass?
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Holmes
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« Reply #1208 on: January 24, 2018, 12:28:12 AM »
Quote from: Bagel23 on January 24, 2018, 12:24:26 AM
Do dems want this thing in Oregon to pass?

Yes. So does most of Oregon.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1209 on: January 24, 2018, 12:43:38 AM »
YES
60.83%
517,648
NO
39.17%
333,362
TOTAL VOTES
851,010
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1210 on: January 24, 2018, 01:22:34 AM »
253 OUT OF 1335 PRECINCTS REPORTED
YES
60.75%
538,986
NO
39.25%
348,269
TOTAL VOTES
887,255
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1211 on: January 24, 2018, 01:47:49 AM »
332 out of 1335 Precincts Reported

Yes
61.13%
556,683

No
38.87%
353,929
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1212 on: January 24, 2018, 02:02:34 AM »
419 OUT OF 1335 PRECINCTS REPORTED
YES
61.16%
564,471
NO
38.84%
358,400
TOTAL VOTES
922,871
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1213 on: January 24, 2018, 02:26:20 AM »
461 OUT OF 1335 PRECINCTS REPORTED
YES
61.00%
570,014
NO
39.00%
364,501
TOTAL VOTES
934,515
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1214 on: January 24, 2018, 09:10:33 AM »
Oregon Measure
925 out of 1335 Precincts Reported

Yes
61.66%
639,226

No
38.34%
397,498

Total votes
1,036,724
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Holmes
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« Reply #1215 on: January 24, 2018, 09:33:54 AM »
I did expect yes to win but this margin is surprising.
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Seattle
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« Reply #1216 on: January 24, 2018, 01:14:59 PM »
I wish WA counted like Oregon. Part of it I believe is that ballots must be received by Election Day.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1217 on: January 24, 2018, 01:42:16 PM »
New poll for the FL HD-72 special election on February 13th.

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/254405-new-hd-72-polling-puts-james-buchanan-margaret-good-virtual-tie

James Buchanan (R): 49
Margaret Good (D): 46

This is a Trump 51-46 district
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1218 on: January 24, 2018, 01:47:30 PM »
The Florida Democratic Party will find a way to screw it up, as usual.
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OneJ
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« Reply #1219 on: January 24, 2018, 01:49:02 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on January 24, 2018, 01:42:16 PM
New poll for the FL HD-72 special election on February 13th.

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/254405-new-hd-72-polling-puts-james-buchanan-margaret-good-virtual-tie

James Buchanan (R): 49
Margaret Good (D): 46

This is a Trump 51-46 district

The Democratic is at the same % as Hillary was. NOT GOOD!
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1220 on: January 24, 2018, 03:24:08 PM »
Quote from: OneJ_ on January 24, 2018, 01:49:02 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on January 24, 2018, 01:42:16 PM
New poll for the FL HD-72 special election on February 13th.

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/254405-new-hd-72-polling-puts-james-buchanan-margaret-good-virtual-tie

James Buchanan (R): 49
Margaret Good (D): 46

This is a Trump 51-46 district

The Democratic is at the same % as Hillary was. NOT GOOD!

FWIW, this pollster has a C+ from 538 based on only 2 polls.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #1221 on: January 24, 2018, 04:00:54 PM »
« Edited: January 24, 2018, 04:04:37 PM by ajc0918 »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on January 24, 2018, 01:42:16 PM
New poll for the FL HD-72 special election on February 13th.

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/254405-new-hd-72-polling-puts-james-buchanan-margaret-good-virtual-tie

James Buchanan (R): 49
Margaret Good (D): 46

This is a Trump 51-46 district
Good to know where this race stands. Considering Good is running against Vern Buchanan's son, it's good to see this race is close. I'd expect the Buchanan's to throw in some last minute cash to swing the race but Good has grassroots support on her side.

Edit: Just read that good outraised Buchanan almost 2 to 1 in December.

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http://floridapolitics.com/archives/253373-democrat-margaret-good-fundraising-coming-strong-hd-72-special-election-heats
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1222 on: January 24, 2018, 05:14:30 PM »
Quote from: Horus on January 23, 2018, 08:41:48 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on January 23, 2018, 08:38:46 PM
I have a gut feeling the Republican is going to win, or make it a close-ish race

Democrat then wins by 50 points.

Classic, LOL.
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kph14
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« Reply #1223 on: January 24, 2018, 05:16:35 PM »
Now that all January specials are done let's take a look at the February elections:

All seats except MN-54 had Republican incumbents.

Feb 06 Including my personal ratings
MO-39 - 71-24 Trump, 50-41 McCaskill, Fundrasing advantage: 4 to 1 Republican, Likely R
MO-97 - 61-33 Trump, 53-40 McCaskill, Fundrasing advantage: 1.5 to 1 Republican, Lean R
MO-129 - 80-16 Trump, 50-42 Akin, Fundrasing advantage: 12 to 1 Republican, Safe R
MO-144 - 78-19 Trump, 51-43 McCaskill, Fundrasing advantage: 2 to 1 Democrat, Tossup

Feb 12
MN-54 - 46-45 Trump, 53-45 Obama, 66-29 Klobuchar, no fundraising reports yet, Likely D
MN-23B - 59-33 Trump, 51-47 Romney, 65-30 Klobuchar, no fundraising reports yet, Lean R

Feb 13:
FL-72 - 51-46 Trump, 51-48 Romney, 53-45 Nelson, fundraising about even, Tossup
GA-175- 61-37 Trump, Safe R
OK-27 - 84-11 Trump, 85-15 Romney Safe R The most Republican Senate seat in OK!

Feb 17
LA-86 - 73-23 Trump, 73-25 Romney Safe R

Feb 20
KY-49 - 72-23 Trump, 66-33 Romney, Last election in this seat 50.4-49.6 R, Rep committed suicide amide sexual assault and misconduct allegations, Widow running against former Democratic Incumbent  Tossup
MS-60 - Safe R

Feb 27
CT-120 - 49-47 Clinton, 53-46 Obama, Tossup
KY-89 - 79-18 Trump, 77-21 Romney Safe R
NH-Belknap3 - 54-41 Trump, 50-49 Obama, Tossup
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1224 on: January 24, 2018, 05:25:10 PM »
Quote from: kph14 on January 24, 2018, 05:16:35 PM
Now that all January specials are done let's take a look at the February elections:

All seats except MN-54 had Republican incumbents.

Feb 06 Including my personal ratings
MO-39 - 71-24 Trump, 50-41 McCaskill, Fundrasing advantage: 4 to 1 Republican, Likely R
MO-97 - 61-33 Trump, 53-40 McCaskill, Fundrasing advantage: 1.5 to 1 Republican, Lean R
MO-129 - 80-16 Trump, 50-42 Akin, Fundrasing advantage: 12 to 1 Republican, Safe R
MO-144 - 78-19 Trump, 51-43 McCaskill, Fundrasing advantage: 2 to 1 Democrat, Tossup

Feb 12
MN-54 - 46-45 Trump, 53-45 Obama, 66-29 Klobuchar, no fundraising reports yet, Likely D
MN-23B - 59-33 Trump, 51-47 Romney, 65-30 Klobuchar, no fundraising reports yet, Lean R

Feb 13:
FL-72 - 51-46 Trump, 51-48 Romney, 53-45 Nelson, fundraising about even, Tossup
GA-175- 61-37 Trump, Safe R
OK-27 - 84-11 Trump, 85-15 Romney Safe R The most Republican Senate seat in OK!

Feb 17
LA-86 - 73-23 Trump, 73-25 Romney Safe R

Feb 20
KY-49 - 72-23 Trump, 66-33 Romney, Last election in this seat 50.4-49.6 R, Rep committed suicide amide sexual assault and misconduct allegations, Widow running against former Democratic Incumbent  Tossup
MS-60 - Safe R

Feb 27
CT-120 - 49-47 Clinton, 53-46 Obama, Tossup
KY-89 - 79-18 Trump, 77-21 Romney Safe R
NH-Belknap3 - 54-41 Trump, 50-49 Obama, Tossup

Who are the incumbent parties in NH-Belknap and CT-120? And the Minnesota seats?
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