State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[Kamala]

Could this possibly mean that the new lieutenant governor of Minnesota's former district could also be up for grabs?

No, that district is completely different. That's more comparable to that Assembly district northwest of Milwaukee also up tonight.

Ah, thanks.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Could this possibly mean that the new lieutenant governor of Minnesota's former district could also be up for grabs?

No, that district is completely different. That's more comparable to that Assembly district northwest of Milwaukee also up tonight.

Ah, thanks.

Even demographically comparable too in fact (heavily German exurbs).

Even Lori Swanson couldn't win it in 2014.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Although Minnesota House district 23B might be worth a look at now as a possibly up for grabs district.

Also means the DFL probably doesn't need to worry too much about Senate district 54 on the same night (which actually even borders that Wisconsin seat.)

[Oryxslayer]

Hot take time! The average Dem overpreformance when compared to Trump tonight was about 21.5%. For the upcoming PA-18 election, this is just barely over Trumps 19.6% margin in 2016. This just makes me sad about GA-06, and how the race was nationalized, and we couldn't see these huge swings in a seat that was easily flippable. Enough past regrets though, there is a new Dem in the Wisconsin Senate, and the dem margin in special elections is back on track with past performances.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Hot take time! The average Dem overpreformance when compared to Trump tonight was about 21.5%. For the upcoming PA-18 election, this is just barely over Trumps 19.6% margin in 2016. This just makes me sad about GA-06, and how the race was nationalized, and we couldn't see these huge swings in a seat that was easily flippable. Enough past regrets though, there is a new Dem in the Wisconsin Senate, and the dem margin in special elections is back on track with past performances.

I wouldn't get too hopeful about PA-18. It's a pretty tough race. I'm expecting Saccone to win by 9%.

[Oryxslayer]

Hot take time! The average Dem overpreformance when compared to Trump tonight was about 21.5%. For the upcoming PA-18 election, this is just barely over Trumps 19.6% margin in 2016. This just makes me sad about GA-06, and how the race was nationalized, and we couldn't see these huge swings in a seat that was easily flippable. Enough past regrets though, there is a new Dem in the Wisconsin Senate, and the dem margin in special elections is back on track with past performances.

I wouldn't get too hopeful about PA-18. It's a pretty tough race. I'm expecting Saccone to win by 9%.

Me too, I'm thinking ~7% though. We will see a crazy swing though...

[Suburbia]

The Wisconsin 10 district is a Republican-leaning district.

Congratulations to the Democrat.

Walker should be worried.

[Holmes]

Walker did have a small freak out on Twitter. Gave a bunch of talking points then asked everyone to "share the good news."

[Gass3268]

District 58: Republicans win 57-43 http://www.co.washington.wi.us/uploads/docs/Finalelectionsummaryreport1-16-18.pdf

Democrats won District 66 unopposed.

That is a horrid result for Republicans in AD-58. What a night!

[mcmikk]

District 58: Republicans win 57-43 http://www.co.washington.wi.us/uploads/docs/Finalelectionsummaryreport1-16-18.pdf

Democrats won District 66 unopposed.

That is a horrid result for Republicans in AD-58. What a night!

If anything, this might spell even more trouble for Walker than SD-10. Just as it was assumed with Gillespie and state Republicans in NOVA, it seems (wrongly, IMO) assumed that Trump's numbers are the floor for the GOP in WOW. Last night should shoot a hole right through that theory. There is no way Walker could survive reelection if he suffered Trump-style erosion in WOW without the Trump numbers from western Wisconsin to compensate. If anything, last night should suggest that it's very possible that Walker/Wisconsin Republicans get doomed on two fronts:

1. further erosion in suburban Milwaukee
2. reversion to Obama '12 ('08?) numbers in western Wisconsin

Pretty much my thoughts exactly. Democrats can cut into Walker's margins in rural areas, particularly in very swingy Western Wisconsin, which Baldwin and Obama carried in 2012, and 6 counties in which were won by Feingold in 2016 even as they were carried by Trump. Trump will do a lot of the Democrats' work for them in the WOW suburbs. It's even worse than the GOP situation in Virginia, because, unlike NOVA, WOW is the Republican base.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I wonder if we can get anyone good to run against Sean Duffey this cycle, he strikes me as being quite the paper-tiger and a Mourdock/Akin waiting to happen.  Thoughts from our Wisconsin posters?  I know this is technically the wrong board, but this seemed like the most logical place to ask about this given last night’s results.

[Gass3268]

Just to be clear, even for western WI, this is heavy R territory. BIG win today.

Yup, I think Obama in 08 was the last time a Democrat won or was close here.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I wonder if we can get anyone good to run against Sean Duffey this cycle, he strikes me as being quite the paper-tiger and a Mourdock/Akin waiting to happen.  Thoughts from our Wisconsin posters?  I know this is technically the wrong board, but this seemed like the most logical place to ask about this given last night’s results.

I’m hoping he’s the Senate nominee in 2022 instead when RoJo retires. Even in a Republican wave year, as 2010 showed us, Republican senate candidates with foot-in-mouth disease are notorious for blowing it. He’d be much more ideal for someone like Ron Kind to face than, say, Mike Gallagher. And a Senate seat>>>a House seat

Yeah, he’s borderline unelectable statewide.

[Horus]

Next election is Pennsylvania 35, a state house district that has been held by Dems for decades. It appears to be in an area that trended Trump, though I'm not sure if he won the districts. Any predictions?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Next election is Pennsylvania 35, a state house district that has been held by Dems for decades. It appears to be in an area that trended Trump, though I'm not sure if he won the districts. Any predictions?

According to Wikipedia, these are all of the boroughs and townships in the district and how they voted in 2016...

Clairton - Clinton
Duquesne - Clinton
Lincoln - Trump
McKeesport - Clinton
Munhall - Clinton
South Versailles Township - Trump
Versailles - Clinton
West Mifflin - Clinton
Whitaker - Clinton
White Oak - Trump

They are all a cluster in Allegheny county, south east of Pittsburgh. Mark Gergely, the Democrat who held the seat and is now resigning, won reelection in 2016 with 62.5% of the vote. The Democrat running for the seat, Austin Davis, is crushing the republican in fundraising. I fully expect the Democrat to win.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Republicans apparently think they can win PA 35...

https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/952962611498414080

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Republicans apparently think they can win PA 35...

https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/952962611498414080

They thought yesterday was a red wave because they won 4 out of 5 seats, ignoring that Trump won all of those seats in landslides.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Something that should REALLY have the GOP worried (from the Marquette U pollster):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Suburbia]

Could Republicans really lose WOW? It's talk-radio country!

[KingSweden]

Could Republicans really lose WOW? It's talk-radio country!

I doubt they lose WOW, but there’s a risk they get poor margins and raw vote totals out of it, which would be fatal

[Wiz in Wis]

In the other contested Wisconsin election last night, Mr Nobody Anyone Heard of Before (Democrat) won the city of West Bend in AD-58.

If I'm the WI GOP, that's scarier than SD-10.

https://twitter.com/SykesCharlie/status/953494726514061312

[Gass3268]

Could Republicans really lose WOW? It's talk-radio country!

I doubt they lose WOW, but there’s a risk they get poor margins and raw vote totals out of it, which would be fatal

Plus some of the baconmadered districts that cut into the white areas of Milwaukee County are really at risk.

[Wiz in Wis]

Could Republicans really lose WOW? It's talk-radio country!

I doubt they lose WOW, but there’s a risk they get poor margins and raw vote totals out of it, which would be fatal

Plus some of the baconmadered districts that cut into the white areas of Milwaukee County are really at risk.

SD-05 comes to mind too.

[Gass3268]

Could Republicans really lose WOW? It's talk-radio country!

I doubt they lose WOW, but there’s a risk they get poor margins and raw vote totals out of it, which would be fatal

Plus some of the baconmadered districts that cut into the white areas of Milwaukee County are really at risk.

SD-05 comes to mind too.

Yup, has to be considered a Lean D district at this time.

[Dr. Arch]

In the other contested Wisconsin election last night, Mr Nobody Anyone Heard of Before (Democrat) won the city of West Bend in AD-58.

If I'm the WI GOP, that's scarier than SD-10.

https://twitter.com/SykesCharlie/status/953494726514061312

Extremely bad news bears for Republicans.