State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[Arkansas Yankee]

https://twitter.com/cdrochester/status/953464824968761345


This is probably one of the most stunning special election pickups Ds have had.

This proofs that one bizarre Minnesota poll means nothing

You may have a point.   But the real question is this result caused by energized Democrat turn out or a switch of Trump voters.  My gut feeling is the former is primary.  it is certainly enough to cause an Atlas red wave in November.  (GIVE ME BACK MY BLUE). It is coming.  So many average Democrats dislike Trump so much that if they were shot they would go vote before going to the hospital.

Another factor is Hillary voting Republicans not coming home.  This might be countered, if Trump changed his demeanor, but I am afraid he is not that politically insightful.

 To be honest French Hill in Arkansas could be in danger.

So the Minnesota poll could be true, but it’s result will not save The GOP in November.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

https://twitter.com/cdrochester/status/953464824968761345


This is probably one of the most stunning special election pickups Ds have had.

This proofs that one bizarre Minnesota poll means nothing

You may have a point.   But the real question is this result caused by energized Democrat turn out or a switch of Trump voters.  My gut feeling is the former is primary.  it is certainly enough to cause an Atlas red wave in November.  (GIVE ME BACK MY BLUE). It is coming.  So many average Democrats dislike Trump so much that if they were shot they would go vote before going to the hospital.

Another factor is Hillary voting Republicans not coming home.  This might be countered, if Trump changed his demeanor, but I am afraid he is not that politically insightful.

 To be honest French Hill in Arkansas could be in danger.

So the Minnesota poll could be true, but it’s result will not save The GOP in November.

Don't forget third party voters leaning towards democrats. In a lot of polls I've seen, third party voters/non 2016 voters are leaning dem over republicans by a 2:1 margin. Trump often only has about 20% approval from this group too.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I just can't stop laughing at all of the Trump Twitter accounts claiming yesterday was a "Red Wave". They are so oblivious.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I just can't stop laughing at all of the Trump Twitter accounts claiming yesterday was a "Red Wave". They are so oblivious.
[/quote

By the way by the old color designation and the Atlas designation a red wave is coming.  These twitters just do not understand the nature of the wave.

A second by the way is why do you waste your time on Twitter?

[LimoLiberal]

I just can't stop laughing at all of the Trump Twitter accounts claiming yesterday was a "Red Wave". They are so oblivious.

This is one of the most cringy videos I have ever watched.

https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/953477691461849088

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

I just can't stop laughing at all of the Trump Twitter accounts claiming yesterday was a "Red Wave". They are so oblivious.

This is one of the most cringy videos I have ever watched.

https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/953477691461849088

I thought at some point maybe these people would start to get their heads out of their asses and take the warning signs seriously, but no, they are 100% gonna plug their ears and whistle right along past the graveyard. All the better though, continuing on their disastrous path will only make it easier for Democrats. And it'll make their November meltdowns even better when they're completely blindsided!

[kph14]

That guy is campaigning for the Republican nominee in the special election in Pennsylvania House District 35 next week. Will be great to see the Democrats win this 58-39 Clinton seat.

[IceSpear]

I just can't stop laughing at all of the Trump Twitter accounts claiming yesterday was a "Red Wave". They are so oblivious.

This is one of the most cringy videos I have ever watched.

https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/953477691461849088

I thought at some point maybe these people would start to get their heads out of their asses and take the warning signs seriously, but no, they are 100% gonna plug their ears and whistle right along past the graveyard. All the better though, continuing on their disastrous path will only make it easier for Democrats. And it'll make their November meltdowns even better when they're completely blindsided!

Speaking of counting your chickens before they hatch...

[Arkansas Yankee]

I just can't stop laughing at all of the Trump Twitter accounts claiming yesterday was a "Red Wave". They are so oblivious.

This is one of the most cringy videos I have ever watched.

https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/953477691461849088
[/quote



I thought at some point maybe these people would start to get their heads out of their asses and take the warning signs seriously, but no, they are 100% gonna plug their ears and whistle right along past the graveyard. All the better though, continuing on their disastrous path will only make it easier for Democrats. And it'll make their November meltdowns even better when they're completely blindsided!

 
 The Democrats denied it 1994, 2010: and 2014.   GOP denied in 2006.  I think the party leaders know when the waves are building? They do not want to demoralize the troops.

Besides 2016 will give all a hope for a surprise.  

[Arkansas Yankee]

I just can't stop laughing at all of the Trump Twitter accounts claiming yesterday was a "Red Wave". They are so oblivious.

This is one of the most cringy videos I have ever watched.

https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/953477691461849088

Nothing cringe worthy about it.  He is just enthusiastic.  I think he does not understand that incumbent parties winning special  elections does not mean the out party will not have a wave.

[LimoLiberal]

I just can't stop laughing at all of the Trump Twitter accounts claiming yesterday was a "Red Wave". They are so oblivious.

This is one of the most cringy videos I have ever watched.

https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/953477691461849088

Nothing cringe worthy about it.  He is just enthusiastic.  I think he does not understand that incumbent parties winning special  elections does not mean the out party will not have a wave.

His tone and voice are grating, not to mention his horrible twitter. And yes, he understand exactly the deception he is doing to get retweets and likes.

[Burke859]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Romney won SD-10 by 6 points, so the Democrat winning it by 11 points is actually a 17 point swing away from the Republicans versus the 2012 numbers.  Not sure how SD-10 voted in Obama-McCain '08, but this may constitute an unprecedented swing for the district, which appears to be a traditionally Republican district by modern standards and not JUST a Trumpy district (though with plenty of Trumpy voters).

My concern is that the GOP is now losing both the new Trump voters and the traditional GOP voters that have voted Republican since at least 2000.  If that's the case, that along with the swing towards the Democrats in urban and suburban areas seems like 400-electoral-vote loss territory in 2020.  It seems like losing voters without replacing them with other types of voters is a poor strategy to say the least.

[Suburbia]

WI SD-10 should be a wake up call for Wisconsin Republicans and national Republicans in a sense.

If WI GOP loses WI SD-33 (Chris Kapenga) who in my opinion is the future of the WI GOP post-Walker/Ryan/Johnson, they are in deep doodoo.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I just can't stop laughing at all of the Trump Twitter accounts claiming yesterday was a "Red Wave". They are so oblivious.

This is one of the most cringy videos I have ever watched.

https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/953477691461849088

Oh man. Scott Presler is just a downright idiot.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I just can't stop laughing at all of the Trump Twitter accounts claiming yesterday was a "Red Wave". They are so oblivious.

This is one of the most cringy videos I have ever watched.

https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/953477691461849088

Nothing cringe worthy about it.  He is just enthusiastic.  I think he does not understand that incumbent parties winning special  elections does not mean the out party will not have a wave.

His tone and voice are grating, not to mention his horrible twitter. And yes, he understand exactly the deception he is doing to get retweets and likes.

For once I am with LimoLiberal here. Once in a while I will surf on over to this guy's twitter to read all of the crap he spews. I physically cannot watch his videos. He's so robotic and his attempts to act really charismatic and excited are painful to watch.

[Suburbia]

Isn't SD-10 where Rep. Ron Kind represents? Western Wisconsin?

[Holmes]

Isn't SD-10 where Rep. Ron Kind represents? Western Wisconsin?

I believe some of this district in Kind's turf. I'm not sure about St Croix county though?

[Arkansas Yankee]

Please explain

If one party wins a seat 65% to 35%

In the next election the same party wins 55% to 45%

Is that a 10% or a 20% swing?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Please explain

If one party wins a seat 65% to 35%

In the next election the same party wins 55% to 45%

Is that a 10% or a 20% swing?

I'd call it a net 20% swing, since the margin went from 30 to 10.

[LimoLiberal]

Isn't SD-10 where Rep. Ron Kind represents? Western Wisconsin?

I believe some of this district in Kind's turf. I'm not sure about St Croix county though?

Only Pierce and Dunn I think, by eyeballing.

[KingSweden]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Romney won SD-10 by 6 points, so the Democrat winning it by 11 points is actually a 17 point swing away from the Republicans versus the 2012 numbers.  Not sure how SD-10 voted in Obama-McCain '08, but this may constitute an unprecedented swing for the district, which appears to be a traditionally Republican district by modern standards and not JUST a Trumpy district (though with plenty of Trumpy voters).

My concern is that the GOP is now losing both the new Trump voters and the traditional GOP voters that have voted Republican since at least 2000.  If that's the case, that along with the swing towards the Democrats in urban and suburban areas seems like 400-electoral-vote loss territory in 2020.  It seems like losing voters without replacing them with other types of voters is a poor strategy to say the least.

See this is good analysis, the kind that often lacks here so that we can have freakouts, insults, hot takes and memes. Thank you for writing it, and welcome to Atlas!

[MAINEiac4434]

Are we forgetting that Georgia was in the college football championship game? That’s why turnout was so low.

How does this exactly work? They watched the game Monday night and forgot to vote next day?

Yes. You’d be hard-pressed to get me to do anything the day after the Patriots lost the Super Bowl.

I was a wreck after the perfect season super bowl loss. I didnt even go to school for 3 days after

I didn't watch football the next season (didn't help that Brady was out).

[Dr. MB]

I just can't stop laughing at all of the Trump Twitter accounts claiming yesterday was a "Red Wave". They are so oblivious.

This is one of the most cringy videos I have ever watched.

https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/953477691461849088

Oh man. Scott Presler is just a downright idiot.

He's more Trump than Trump.

[Dr. Arch]

I just can't stop laughing at all of the Trump Twitter accounts claiming yesterday was a "Red Wave". They are so oblivious.

This is one of the most cringy videos I have ever watched.

https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/953477691461849088

Oh man. Scott Presler is just a downright idiot.

He's more Trump than Trump.

That's quite sad.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Please explain

If one party wins a seat 65% to 35%

In the next election the same party wins 55% to 45%

Is that a 10% or a 20% swing?

For what it is worth Wikipedia defines the swing as:

One party swing (in percentage points) = Percentage of vote (current election) – Percentage of vote (previous election).  In my example the swing would have been -10%.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_(politics)