State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread
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BRTD
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« Reply #1050 on: January 16, 2018, 10:02:42 PM »
Unfortunately St. Croix County does not appear to be reporting yet.
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mcmikk
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« Reply #1051 on: January 16, 2018, 10:02:59 PM »

Huh?
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #1052 on: January 16, 2018, 10:03:04 PM »
How much of the vote has reported?
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Holmes
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« Reply #1053 on: January 16, 2018, 10:05:20 PM »

/s means sarcasm.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1054 on: January 16, 2018, 10:06:03 PM »

oh ok
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1055 on: January 16, 2018, 10:06:44 PM »
2016 results were R+27

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/wisconsin-state-senate-district-10
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kph14
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« Reply #1056 on: January 16, 2018, 10:07:03 PM »
Without anything out of St Croix the winner is still unsure
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #1057 on: January 16, 2018, 10:07:38 PM »
fwiw St. Croix is only marginally more conservative than Dunn and Pierce.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1058 on: January 16, 2018, 10:09:54 PM »
« Edited: January 16, 2018, 10:12:12 PM by Tintrlvr »
I'd expect St. Croix to look more like Dunn or Pierce than like Polk or Burnett, going by the maps. St. Croix is the most urban county, and the areas of Dunn and Pierce in the district are also relatively urban, while Polk and especially Burnett are more rural. Polk and Burnett were also 60-61% Trump while St. Croix was only 55% (only relatively small parts of Dunn and Pierce are in the district so harder to compare those without sub-county results). So, if St. Croix swings the way Dunn and Pierce did, the Democrat narrowly wins St. Croix and wins the district.

Map for reference: http://legis.wisconsin.gov/ltsb/gisdocs/SenateMaps/Sen_10_Poster_Map.pdf
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1059 on: January 16, 2018, 10:11:38 PM »
I hope Perry O. Hooper Jr. runs for Roby's seat next year, man, that guy is so cool!
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1060 on: January 16, 2018, 10:12:54 PM »
St. Croix County is in. 4918 for Jarchow, 6156 for Schachtner.

Decimated.
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kph14
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« Reply #1061 on: January 16, 2018, 10:13:19 PM »
Wisconsin‘s AD 58 meanwhile voted 57-43 R after 67-28 Trump, 75-25 Walker and 68-31 Romney

https://mobile.twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/953453704753176576
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #1062 on: January 16, 2018, 10:13:35 PM »
Quote from: Ebsy on January 16, 2018, 10:12:54 PM
St. Croix County is in. 4918 for Jarchow, 6156 for Schachtner.

Decimated.
holy crap
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1063 on: January 16, 2018, 10:13:46 PM »
https://twitter.com/cdrochester/status/953464824968761345


This is probably one of the most stunning special election pickups Ds have had.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1064 on: January 16, 2018, 10:14:08 PM »
Gobs of charisma!
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #1065 on: January 16, 2018, 10:14:20 PM »
Quote from: Ebsy on January 16, 2018, 10:12:54 PM
St. Croix County is in. 4918 for Jarchow, 6156 for Schachtner.

Decimated.

It's over.

D+1
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1066 on: January 16, 2018, 10:14:38 PM »
SUMMARY REPORT ST. CROIX COUNTY, WISCONSIN UNOFFICIAL RESULTS
RUN DATE:01/16/18 SPECIAL PARTISAN ELECTION
RUN TIME:08:48 PM JANUARY 16, 2018
VOTES PERCENT
BALLOTS CAST - TOTAL. . . . . . . 11,213
State Senator Dist 10
(VOTE FOR) 1
Adam Jarchow (REP) . . . . . . . 4,918 43.87
Patty Schachtner (DEM) . . . . . . 6,156 54.91
Brian J. Corriea (LIB) . . . . . . 134 1.20
WRITE-IN. . . . . . . . . . . 3 .03


PATTY UP BIG IN ST.CROIX.
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kph14
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« Reply #1067 on: January 16, 2018, 10:14:59 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on January 16, 2018, 10:13:46 PM
https://twitter.com/cdrochester/status/953464824968761345


This is probably one of the most stunning special election pickups Ds have had.

This proofs that one bizarre Minnesota poll means nothing
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #1068 on: January 16, 2018, 10:15:56 PM »
huh. I was not expecting the republican to get blanched.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #1069 on: January 16, 2018, 10:16:17 PM »
Quote from: Let's Talk About Your Hair on January 16, 2018, 10:14:20 PM
Quote from: Ebsy on January 16, 2018, 10:12:54 PM
St. Croix County is in. 4918 for Jarchow, 6156 for Schachtner.

Decimated.

It's over.

D+1

This seat was already up in 2016, so now Democrats only need +3 in November to flip the chamber? If so, do you think it's a better possibility now, given the favorable environment?
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1070 on: January 16, 2018, 10:16:42 PM »
Just to be clear, even for western WI, this is heavy R territory. BIG win today.
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Holmes
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« Reply #1071 on: January 16, 2018, 10:17:43 PM »
Wow.
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kph14
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« Reply #1072 on: January 16, 2018, 10:18:39 PM »
Just beautiful.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1073 on: January 16, 2018, 10:19:22 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on January 16, 2018, 10:13:46 PM
https://twitter.com/cdrochester/status/953464824968761345


This is probably one of the most stunning special election pickups Ds have had.

It is certainly the most stunning normal special election since 2016. I would say Alabama definitely tops anything else, and probably the Oklahoma crazies were more wilder due to the number of scandals going on in that state. But in terms of simple D v R without any real abnormal overarching theme - oh hell yeah this is the craziest. Exurbs + rurals with a huge D swing. Wow.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #1074 on: January 16, 2018, 10:19:35 PM »
Quote from: Virginia on January 16, 2018, 10:16:17 PM
Quote from: Let's Talk About Your Hair on January 16, 2018, 10:14:20 PM
Quote from: Ebsy on January 16, 2018, 10:12:54 PM
St. Croix County is in. 4918 for Jarchow, 6156 for Schachtner.

Decimated.

It's over.

D+1

This seat was already up in 2016, so now Democrats only need +3 in November to flip the chamber? If so, do you think it's a better possibility now, given the favorable environment?

Depends on the specific seats this fall. Arch probably has more insight
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