WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin

[wesmoorenerd]

You know, I can't deny that recent Democratic statements on coal have been impolitic, but in the long run the Republican strategy of "pretend that coal is still a viable industry and pretend that we'll have a resurgence of coal any day now" is far worse. The Republican line may sound better to disaffected coal communities, but let's not beat around the bush: coal is in an irreversible decline. Democrats at least try and implement solutions that will benefit these communities, like job training and revitalization efforts, while the Republican strategy boils down to sticking their heads in the sand, praying for a coal renaissance that'll simply never happen, and preying on the emotions of vulnerable and marginalized communities across Appalachia and elsewhere.

[Arkansas Yankee]

You know, I can't deny that recent Democratic statements on coal have been impolitic, but in the long run the Republican strategy of "pretend that coal is still a viable industry and pretend that we'll have a resurgence of coal any day now" is far worse. The Republican line may sound better to disaffected coal communities, but let's not beat around the bush: coal is in an irreversible decline. Democrats at least try and implement solutions that will benefit these communities, like job training and revitalization efforts, while the Republican strategy boils down to sticking their heads in the sand, praying for a coal renaissance that'll simply never happen, and preying on the emotions of vulnerable and marginalized communities across Appalachia and elsewhere.

The use of coal is not going to actually end anytime soon.  In fact even in 2040 coal will be the primary producer of electricity at 26%.  In Southeast Asia coal as the source of energy will increase to 40% by 2040.  One of the goals of policy should be to make coal cleaner not end its use.  See:

https://www.worldcoal.org/coal/uses-coal/coal-electricity.

Germany and most of you lefties want to reduce the share of electricity produced by nuclear power due to your hysterical fear of meltdowns.  Well coal will have to play a part in providing for such a shift.

[Sumner 1868]

Wonderful news! Since it's clear that Dems are regaining the House on a "Drumpf sucks" bounce there's no reason for her not to teach Manchin a lesson. The alt-centrists never received blowback for Lamont/Lieberman 2006 and now here's the perfect chance!

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

You know, I can't deny that recent Democratic statements on coal have been impolitic, but in the long run the Republican strategy of "pretend that coal is still a viable industry and pretend that we'll have a resurgence of coal any day now" is far worse. The Republican line may sound better to disaffected coal communities, but let's not beat around the bush: coal is in an irreversible decline. Democrats at least try and implement solutions that will benefit these communities, like job training and revitalization efforts, while the Republican strategy boils down to sticking their heads in the sand, praying for a coal renaissance that'll simply never happen, and preying on the emotions of vulnerable and marginalized communities across Appalachia and elsewhere.

The use of coal is not going to actually end anytime soon.  In fact even in 2040 coal will be the primary producer of electricity at 26%.  In Southeast Asia coal as the source of energy will increase to 40% by 2040.  One of the goals of policy should be to make coal cleaner not end its use.  See:

https://www.worldcoal.org/coal/uses-coal/coal-electricity.

Germany and most of you lefties want to reduce the share of electricity produced by nuclear power due to your hysterical fear of meltdowns.  Well coal will have to play a part in providing for such a shift.

Reporting that coal will nosedive as a % of the global power grid as coal isn't going away anytime soon is essentially just lying.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wonderful news! Since it's clear that Dems are regaining the House on a "Drumpf sucks" bounce there's no reason for her not to teach Manchin a lesson. The alt-centrists never received blowback for Lamont/Lieberman 2006 and now here's the perfect chance!

I hope the GOP takes away your healthcare too.

[Former Kentuckian]

I’m not sure how much of a spoiler she’ll be with 3 votes.

Let's hope you are right. There is no mountain party nominee, so I could see her grabbing 3-4% of the vote.

I don't think it'll be an issue. The Mountain Party usually gets a few percentage points from protest points because 1) they're conveniently on the ballot and 2) they run familiar personalities in the state like Charlotte Pritt and Bob Henry Baber. The Mountain Party would have to actually go out of their way to educate people about writing in Swearengin, and most voters are lazy or already baked-in (and the Mountain Party is resource-strapped anyway). The majority of voters are going to be in a hurry and already have an idea of which of the two well-known candidates they're supporting. I find it hard to imagine many will take the time to write-in an unknown.

Besides, the Mountain Party issued its slate of candidates in June and have remained mum on Swearengin since she announced her write-in adventure despite being active on their social media.

[Politician]

I’m not sure how much of a spoiler she’ll be with 3 votes.

Let's hope you are right. There is no mountain party nominee, so I could see her grabbing 3-4% of the vote.

Manchin will likely win by 5-10% anyway, and Justice won in 2016 with Pritt taking 5% from him.

[Sadader]

You know, I can't deny that recent Democratic statements on coal have been impolitic, but in the long run the Republican strategy of "pretend that coal is still a viable industry and pretend that we'll have a resurgence of coal any day now" is far worse. The Republican line may sound better to disaffected coal communities, but let's not beat around the bush: coal is in an irreversible decline. Democrats at least try and implement solutions that will benefit these communities, like job training and revitalization efforts, while the Republican strategy boils down to sticking their heads in the sand, praying for a coal renaissance that'll simply never happen, and preying on the emotions of vulnerable and marginalized communities across Appalachia and elsewhere.

The use of coal is not going to actually end anytime soon.  In fact even in 2040 coal will be the primary producer of electricity at 26%.  In Southeast Asia coal as the source of energy will increase to 40% by 2040.  One of the goals of policy should be to make coal cleaner not end its use.  See:

https://www.worldcoal.org/coal/uses-coal/coal-electricity.

Germany and most of you lefties want to reduce the share of electricity produced by nuclear power due to your hysterical fear of meltdowns.  Well coal will have to play a part in providing for such a shift.

Are you legitimately clueless enough to be using a literal coal lobbying group as a source?

God help us all

[Sumner 1868]

Wonderful news! Since it's clear that Dems are regaining the House on a "Drumpf sucks" bounce there's no reason for her not to teach Manchin a lesson. The alt-centrists never received blowback for Lamont/Lieberman 2006 and now here's the perfect chance!

I hope the GOP takes away your healthcare too.

I remember what Texas Democrats did to those who voted against their candidates a century ago.

[Virginiá]

Err, putting aside the unseemly nature of your post, white southerners didn't want black people to vote period. Not just for Democrats. (afaik)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wonderful news! Since it's clear that Dems are regaining the House on a "Drumpf sucks" bounce there's no reason for her not to teach Manchin a lesson. The alt-centrists never received blowback for Lamont/Lieberman 2006 and now here's the perfect chance!

I hope the GOP takes away your healthcare too.

I remember what Texas Democrats did to those who voted against their candidates a century ago.

Huh, really?? Now to me that looks like the the alternative GOP healthcare plan that they would have for people who do not have enough money if scum like you were to have it your way and hand them enough seats to have this implemented.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Manchin, Ojeda, and I all support Trump rolling back environmental regulations to help WV coal.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Wonderful news! Since it's clear that Dems are regaining the House on a "Drumpf sucks" bounce there's no reason for her not to teach Manchin a lesson. The alt-centrists never received blowback for Lamont/Lieberman 2006 and now here's the perfect chance!

Lamont seems to be getting revenge on his own this year.

[wesmoorenerd]

Manchin, Ojeda, and I all support Trump rolling back environmental regulations to help WV coal.

Truly foolish. I get that WV politicians have to support coal to get elected, but we can't throw the kitchen sink at a dying industry forever. One of these days, we're going to have to come to terms with the fact that coal isn't coming back, and the sooner that day comes, the sooner we can actually try to implement real solutions for coal communities. And even if coal wasn't doomed, which it is, it's not worth rolling back environmental regulations to try and save it. Do you realize how absurdly behind the curve we are in regards to the environment? Rolling back regulations is just going to speed up the horrific effects of climate change that are going to ravage the Earth in mere decades. Rolling back environmental regulations, knowing what we know now about climate change, amounts to a crime against humanity.

[DINGO Joe]

Well, we can all take comfort that WV is steadily going away (population-wise) and we can thank coal for that.

[KingSweden]

Well, we can all take comfort that WV is steadily going away (population-wise) and we can thank coal for that.

That’s a remarkably grim thing to say

[Bidenworth2020]

Well, we can all take comfort that WV is steadily going away (population-wise) and we can thank coal for that.

That’s a remarkably grim thing to say

yeah, do you have some problem with WV?

[IceSpear]

Well, we can all take comfort that WV is steadily going away (population-wise) and we can thank coal for that.

That’s a remarkably grim thing to say

That was actually pretty tame by dingojoe's standards, lol. He might hate WV even more than I do.

[CookieDamage]

Manchin, Ojeda, and I all support Trump rolling back environmental regulations to help WV coal.

Incredibly short-sighted. Let's hurt our environment and let profit-obsessed coal companies not only poison our land and water but also give our workers black lung and health problems so we can pump dirty crap into the air because.... COAL!!!!

I don't get y'all... I really don't. You care so much about coal miners yet scoff at giving them renewable energy jobs and other forms of employment. The only reason some of you guys seem so obsessed with maintaining the coal industry is because of some romantic, old-school Americana nostalgia. "That's what grandpappy did, that's what his bubba did, so we're *coughs* keeping coal!!!!!"

[DINGO Joe]

Well, we can all take comfort that WV is steadily going away (population-wise) and we can thank coal for that.

That’s a remarkably grim thing to say

For a site that attracts numbers geeks there is a remarkable ignorance about WV and demographics.

WV hit peak population in the 1950 Census 2.005 million(the only state below their 1950 population) they hit a second peak in the 1980 Census--when coal has a resurgence in the 70s thanks to the energy crisis 1.950 million.  The 80s were a brutal decade for WV as the state lost more than 150,000 people even worse the number of births in the state fell from 29,000/year in 1980 to 22,000/year in 1990 (nationally births rose from 3.6 million to 4.2 million) .  Since then, while the population has stabilized it's gotten much older and it looks like this:

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk

American fact-finder sucks for linking so you may have to manipulate the button to get to WV and current data if it doesn't work use this link

https://business.wvu.edu/centers/bureau-of-business-and-economic-research/data/population-data

Choose the resident population by age group by gender option.

Note the huge gap in population between the age groups 50-65 to those under 20.

Look at Nebraska which while a relatively unexciting state has passed WV in population.  Nebraska still has far fewer people over 50 than WV but far more at you go down in age.  Nebraska does have more people over 85 than WV, but that's because you're likely to live longer in Neb than WV.

If you don't wish to navigate all that then you can look at end result, the yearly births and deaths as reported by the CDC/NCHS:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr67/nvsr67_05.pdf
Table 12

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr67/nvsr67_01.pdf
Table 6

For 2016 WV had 19079 births and 22732 deaths
For 2016 NE had  26589 births and 16217 deaths

Preliminary numbers for WV in 2017 are 18500 births and 23200 deaths.

Do you see a problem there?

True Nebraska has supplemented it's population with an increase in Hispanics, mainly in the agriculture/food processing industry.  WV has had no immigrant influx since the 1950s.  It does house the highest per capita number of Federal prisoners (thank you Senator Byrd) so a surprising chunk of it's Hispanic and even Black population are actually Federal prisoners.

WV also has the highest rate of disability under the age of 65, with 14.4% of the under 65 population reporting a disability (Kentucky is 2nd).  Nebraska's rate is 7.5. 

It goes on and on.  WV had 884 overdose deaths in 2016.  Nebraska with a now slightly larger population had 120.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/drug_poisoning_mortality/drug_poisoning.htm

WV also has an incredibly crooked governor who basically is trying to stave off bankruptcy via the governorship.  The congressional delegation can't pull off the old Byrd trick of pulling pork into the state.  True there are isolated exceptions.  The far East panhandle is part of exurban DC and has some growth.  Morgantown and WVU has had more success that you might expect in part because a majority of the student body is from out of state.  (Though it apparently it had a decline of more than 1000 students this year which they mainly blame on a sharp decline in international students).

Overall, the population losses feed on themselves, most jobs are of the service variety, education, retail, healthcare.  Fewer people require less of these, though the aging population should help healthcare for awhile, and heck, nursing homes and funeral parlors should have a couple of boom decades before they shrink too.  I guess that's grim too.

So, what you view as harsh and grim, I view as empirical reality.   It is an unpleasant place and it can all be traced back to coal.

[KingSweden]

Your post is long and thorough, which I appreciate!
Fun fact: my buddy’s parents, both from Egypt, met at WVU

[DINGO Joe]

Your post is long and thorough, which I appreciate!
Fun fact: my buddy’s parents, both from Egypt, met at WVU

Yeah, WVU is weird, I guess by geographic accident.  If it had been put in the center of the state it would probably be as dynamic as the Univ of South Dakota, but on the fringe of the state with relatively fast interstate connections to Pittsburgh and DC and beyond plus a relatively cheap tuition compared to surrounding states it's flourished far more than one would expect.  Of course, since WV has never really produced college graduate jobs, they get back on the interstate and leave.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Your post is long and thorough, which I appreciate!
Fun fact: my buddy’s parents, both from Egypt, met at WVU

Yeah, WVU is weird, I guess by geographic accident.  If it had been put in the center of the state it would probably be as dynamic as the Univ of South Dakota, but on the fringe of the state with relatively fast interstate connections to Pittsburgh and DC and beyond plus a relatively cheap tuition compared to surrounding states it's flourished far more than one would expect.  Of course, since WV has never really produced college graduate jobs, they get back on the interstate and leave.

Hopefully expanding coal can fix that, but I doubt it will happened.

[DINGO Joe]

Your post is long and thorough, which I appreciate!
Fun fact: my buddy’s parents, both from Egypt, met at WVU

Yeah, WVU is weird, I guess by geographic accident.  If it had been put in the center of the state it would probably be as dynamic as the Univ of South Dakota, but on the fringe of the state with relatively fast interstate connections to Pittsburgh and DC and beyond plus a relatively cheap tuition compared to surrounding states it's flourished far more than one would expect.  Of course, since WV has never really produced college graduate jobs, they get back on the interstate and leave.

Hopefully expanding coal can fix that, but I doubt it will happened.

Yes, coal is noted for bringing troves of college jobs. 

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Your post is long and thorough, which I appreciate!
Fun fact: my buddy’s parents, both from Egypt, met at WVU

Yeah, WVU is weird, I guess by geographic accident.  If it had been put in the center of the state it would probably be as dynamic as the Univ of South Dakota, but on the fringe of the state with relatively fast interstate connections to Pittsburgh and DC and beyond plus a relatively cheap tuition compared to surrounding states it's flourished far more than one would expect.  Of course, since WV has never really produced college graduate jobs, they get back on the interstate and leave.

Hopefully expanding coal can fix that, but I doubt it will happened.

Yes, coal is noted for bringing troves of college jobs. 

Hey, county coroner is a good job! Especially if Trump and his big mining buddies work to squash regulations to kill more miners. Patriots like Businessperson Don Blankenship would be proud- so much money to go around for the kids.