France 2017: Results Thread

[MAINEiac4434]

Thread opened. Try not to behave like five year olds.

Keep in mind all the above rules, particularly:
-As in past elections, do not post exit polls/results projections before the official French time (8pm/2pm EST etc.). Some people don't want to have suspense or whatever ruined by leaked numbers, which you can easily find elsewhere on the internet without needing to tell the rest of the world about them. If you wish, you can post these leaked exit polls/results projections in tiny font.

Some people shouldn't be on an election board on Election Day if that's the case...

[MAINEiac4434]

Is Fillon or Macron more conservative.? I always forget.

Fillon, particularly on social issues.

[MAINEiac4434]

Tribune de Genève are also leaking some alleged scores. Definitely interesting

Thanks for this, TDG's numbers are encouraging.

[MAINEiac4434]

If Le Pen doesn't make it, I'm going to put a hole through my wall

That's an odd way to celebrate

[MAINEiac4434]

Wow, Hydera is a huge troll.


Anyway, is there any sort of chance Le Pen could win? Sure this won't be a 2002 redux?

Only if the polls are 20 points off in favor of Le Pen, because Macron has had a lead of around that in second round polling. The polls were pretty good for the first round, too.

I mean, 15 days is a lifetime in politics. Anything can happen. Maybe Wikileaks will pull something out of their ass to help the white nationalist candidate.

[MAINEiac4434]

Le Pen underperformed.

[MAINEiac4434]

Does anyone know if expat votes in the US are broken down by state anywhere?

If it's anything like 2012, the French have their own way of dividing the US that doesn't quite correspond to states.

That really doesn't make sense, other to infuriate mapmakers.

Redrawing American States. The most French thing ever.

[MAINEiac4434]

Should the French left have made a primary between Melenchon and Hamon before the general election?
The left was out of the runoff in 2002 and 2017 because of the split of the vote.

PS called on them to join the "Primaires gauche" but both Melenchon and Macron were uninterested. In the end, only the PA candidate, the PRG canidate (which is basically just a more centrist PS spinoff at this point), the Ecologist Party candidate and the Democratic Front candidate joined.

[MAINEiac4434]

Not sure if this has been mentioned yet, but Mélenchon has not said who to support in the second round. However, he will definitely vote, and he will definitely not vote for Le Pen.

The question is whether he will vote Macron or cast a blank ballot.

[MAINEiac4434]

Just announced:

Dupont-Aignan would become Le Pen's PM, if she *somehow* wins.

The political death of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan. RIP

He got 5% in the first round, his best result yet. What else should we expect from him ? Becoming PM under Le Pen would be his career highlight and his best bet.

Anyway, it would be great to see a new Elabe poll. They were the best in round 1.

Well, Le Pen isn't going to win so he won't become Prime Minister and now everyone will associate him with the woefully unpopular Le Pen.

[MAINEiac4434]

Just announced:

Dupont-Aignan would become Le Pen's PM, if she *somehow* wins.

The political death of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan. RIP

He got 5% in the first round, his best result yet. What else should we expect from him ? Becoming PM under Le Pen would be his career highlight and his best bet.

Anyway, it would be great to see a new Elabe poll. They were the best in round 1.

Well, Le Pen isn't going to win so he won't become Prime Minister and now everyone will associate him with the woefully unpopular Le Pen.

Trump wasn't supposed to win either.

Trump was not 20 points behind Clinton one week before the election. He was always within striking distance of her in a way that LePen has never been

True, but counterpoint: Clinton was careful not to do anything too stupid to blow it, to a fault maybe...but the scales were tipping back and forth until Comeyghazi flipped it.

Macron on the other hand has blown his lead a bit, making all sorts of rookie mistakes against someone more seasoned.

And he's still up by around 20 points.

[MAINEiac4434]

I don't know if the translator is bad or what but Le Pen is not making sense.

[MAINEiac4434]

So who does everyone think is winning so far?

Macron.

[MAINEiac4434]

On Sunday it'll be 65-35 Macron, if not worse. Le Pen came off as unhinged.

[MAINEiac4434]

https://youtu.be/uScdbXUkdgY

[MAINEiac4434]

So I cast my Flawless Beautiful vote (which I'm no doubt going to curse myself for throughout the next 5 years) today at the polling station in Burbank. The poll workers said turnout was way up from the first round, so that's encouraging. I also couldn't help rummaging through the dustbin inside the voting booth, and unsurprisingly I found a dozen of Le Pen ballots there and only one for FBM.

Just keep telling yourself that he's better than Le Pen.

[MAINEiac4434]

Yeah but Macron's descended from Napoleon so he'll win.

[MAINEiac4434]

But how's Macron doing in the crucial Waukesha County?

dave weigel is strong in ya.


btw....this sentiment drives me crazy:

https://twitter.com/anealla/status/861163639465816064

Trump support in a nutshell

That lady is French Milo.

[MAINEiac4434]

Won't be long now...

[MAINEiac4434]

Wow, 65-35!

Much better for Macron than anyone predicted.

 But the alt-right ALWAYS does better than polls suggest!!!!111!! /s

Well I predicted 65-35

[MAINEiac4434]

He did better winning a percentage of all voters in the second round than Hollande, Sarko in 2007 and Mitterrand in 81. I'm actually impressed.

[MAINEiac4434]

By the way, why do the results for overseas voting locations make a differentiation between Israel and Jerusalem?

Because I guess Jerusalem isn't part of Israël???

Am I missing something here? Is Jerusalem not the capital of Israel? Everything else on the webpage is by country, why is there a distinction? Is Jerusalem there to represent Palestine?

Tel Aviv is internationally recognized as the capital of Israel, and many nations do not recognize Israeli authority over the whole of Jerusalem because it violates an Israeli-Palestinian agreement.