2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[senyor_brownbear]

What Arizona ballot initiative is that referring to? The other states mentioned are all independent redistricting but AZ has that already.

[136or142]

The Ohio filing deadline was today.  Anybody have any updates?

[136or142]

The Ohio filing deadline was today.  Anybody have any updates?

Though Wednesday was the filing deadline for major party congressional candidacies, petition signatures must be certified by elections officials before the candidates’ names make the ballot.

While those certifications have not yet occurred, the state is on pace to have a Republican and Democrat on the ballot in all 16 congressional districts this year, just as they did in 2016.

http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180207/whopping-19-candidates-are-seeking-pat-tiberis-old-congressional-seat

Not all of the districts are in that news story, but the quote is.

1st
Republican
Steve Chabot
Samuel Ronan

Democratic
Aftab Pureval

2nd
Republican
Brad Wenstrup

Democratic
Janet Everhard
Jill Schiler

3rd
Democratic
Joyce Beatty

Republican
James Burgess
Abdulkadir Haji

4th
Republican
Jim Jordan
Joseph Miller

Democratic
Norbert Denneril
Janet Garret
Leah Sellers
Cody James Slatzer-Rose

5th
Republican
Bob Latta
Todd Wolfrum
Robert Kreienkamp

Democratic
James Neu
J Michael Galbraith

6th
Republican
Bill Johnson
Robert Blazek

Democratic
Werner Lange
Shawna Roberts
Richard Olivito

7th
Republican
Bob Gibbs
Terry Robertson
Patrick Quinn

Democratic
Ken Harbaugh
Patrick Pikus

8th
Republican
Warren Davidson

Democratic
Bill Ebben
Vanessa Enoch
Matthew Guyette
Stephen Shaw
Ted Jones

9th
Democratic
Marcy Kaptur
Joshua Garcia

Republican
Steve Kraus
Keith Colton
W. Benjamin Franklin
Mackenzie Levindofske

10th
Republican
Mike Turner
John Mitchel
John Anderson

Democratic
Theresa Gasper
Robert Klepinger
Michael Milisits

11th
Democratic
Marcia Fudge

Republican
Beverly Goldstein
Gregory Dunham

13th
Democratic
Tim Ryan
John Luchansky
Robert Crow

14th
Republican
David Joyce

Democratic
Betsy Rader

15th
Republican
Steve Stivers

Democratic
Ryan Hupp
Rob Jarvis
Rick Neal

[136or142]

Open/Special Election Districts

12th
Republican
Melanie Leneghan
Kevin Bacon
Troy Balderson
Gary Chiero
Lawrence Cohen
Carol O'Brien
John Adams
Jon Halverstadt
Tim Kane
Patrick Manley
Myrl Shoemaker

Democratic
Jackie Patton
Danny O'Connor
Doug Wilson
John Russell
Ed Albertson
John Peters
Zach Scott

16th
Republican
Anthony Gonzalez
Christine Hagan
Michael Grausenmeyer

Democratic
Mark Dent
Aaron Godfrey
T.J Mulloy
Grant Goodrich
John Wilson
Susan Moran Palmer

[Gass3268]

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Source

[Gass3268]

Cook Political Report shifts 21 seats towards the Democrats

[Hindsight was 2020]

Is Jeff Denham doing bad out in CA-10?

[Oryxslayer]

Cook Political Report shifts 21 seats towards the Democrats

Some of these changes were a long time coming - NJ 02, OR 05, TX 21. Others are interesting like VA 07, IL 12, and NC 13.

Cook also incredulously still has TN-Sen as a tossup so...

[KingSweden]

Hopefully WA-3 and WA-5 move onto the board soon

[Oryxslayer]

Hopefully WA-3 and WA-5 move onto the board soon

WA-05 is already rated likely R.

[Gass3268]

Essentially the qualitative analysis is finally matching up with the quantitative analysis.

[Tekken_Guy]

Surprised CA-22 didn't move. After this week's events it looks much more vulnerable.

Potential future moves to look out for

Solid R to Likely R -- AZ-08,  CA-22, CA-42, FL-06, FL-25, IL-16, IN-09, MD-01, NJ-04, NY-02, NY-21, OH-07, OH-14, SC-01, TX-02, TX-06, TX-10, TX-22, TX-24, TX-31, WA-03, WI-01
Likely R to Lean R -- CA-21, GA-07, IL-13, MI-07, NC-09, NY-01, NY-24, VA-05, WI-06
Lean R to Toss-Up -- CA-45, GA-06, KS-03, MI-08, NJ-07, PA-06, PA-08, TX-32

[JGibson]

Glad to hear that my Congressional district [IL-12] is now a toss-up. Hopefully Kelly takes down Bost.

[Littlefinger]

NJ-07: Big news in the Dem primary as Lisa Mandelblatt dropped out and endorsed newly presumed frontrunner Tom Malinowski in a show of party unity and hoping to avoid a potentially bruising primary.

http://politicsdw.com/2018/02/mandelblatt-drops-out-backs-malinowski/

[Tekken_Guy]

NJ-07: Big news in the Dem primary as Lisa Mandelblatt dropped out and endorsed newly presumed frontrunner Tom Malinowski in a show of party unity and hoping to avoid a potentially bruising primary.

http://politicsdw.com/2018/02/mandelblatt-drops-out-backs-malinowski/

Should be a toss-up on Cook very soon. Once either Malinowski reaches Sherrill-levels of money or Lance retires it'll immediately move.

[BuckeyeNut]

Glad to see the tides shifting in IN-02!

[LabourJersey]

NJ-07: Big news in the Dem primary as Lisa Mandelblatt dropped out and endorsed newly presumed frontrunner Tom Malinowski in a show of party unity and hoping to avoid a potentially bruising primary.

http://politicsdw.com/2018/02/mandelblatt-drops-out-backs-malinowski/

There still is Linda Weber (who has plenty of money) and Peter Jacob (the main Our Revolution candidate) in the running. The primary still has competition

[Jeppe]

NJ-07: Big news in the Dem primary as Lisa Mandelblatt dropped out and endorsed newly presumed frontrunner Tom Malinowski in a show of party unity and hoping to avoid a potentially bruising primary.

http://politicsdw.com/2018/02/mandelblatt-drops-out-backs-malinowski/

That's disappointing.

[Landslide Lyndon]

NJ-07: Big news in the Dem primary as Lisa Mandelblatt dropped out and endorsed newly presumed frontrunner Tom Malinowski in a show of party unity and hoping to avoid a potentially bruising primary.

http://politicsdw.com/2018/02/mandelblatt-drops-out-backs-malinowski/

There still is Linda Weber (who has plenty of money) and Peter Jacob (the main Our Revolution candidate) in the running. The primary still has competition

I'm not a local like you but I think that New Jersey isn't fertile ground for Sanders-like candidates.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[junior chįmp]

Shh shh, no tears GOP....only dreams now

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[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hey GOP, where's your megadonors now?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hey GOP, where's your megadonors now?

Shouldn't that be MAGAdonors?

[Babeuf]

NJ-07: Big news in the Dem primary as Lisa Mandelblatt dropped out and endorsed newly presumed frontrunner Tom Malinowski in a show of party unity and hoping to avoid a potentially bruising primary.

http://politicsdw.com/2018/02/mandelblatt-drops-out-backs-malinowski/

There still is Linda Weber (who has plenty of money) and Peter Jacob (the main Our Revolution candidate) in the running. The primary still has competition

I'm not a local like you but I think that New Jersey isn't fertile ground for Sanders-like candidates.

You're right, unfortunately. I vote in this district and Jacob isn't going to win (even though I'm planning to vote for him atm). Weber has 2 county lines, so she definitely has a decent shot, but I think Malinowski should win this now.

Malinowski is alright, should be much better than Weber, who seems awful.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Mawlinowski seems like a really strong candidate and he has a good profile (used to be the Washington Director of Human Rights Watch before becoming Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, plus he's raised quite a bit of money pretty quickly).