2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Jeppe]

I hope not. He’s a blatant carpetbagger describing himself as a “patriotic millionaire”.

Imagine saying this without even the slightest hint of irony while stanning for Sara Jacobs of all people.

He’s an associate professor in Austin and in Charlottesville, how he’s running for office in Pennsylvania, I have no idea where he even actually lives and works.

[KingSweden]

Lamb all-but certain to run in PA-17 no matter the special election results:

http://wesa.fm/post/bumped-new-district-lamb-says-he-ll-run-primary-doesn-t-say-where#stream/0

Dems are certainly getting the ball going on recruiting so fast. Very impressive if they get both DePasquale in PA-10 and Lamb in PA-17.

I hope Rachel Reddick is strong enough to ride a wave in Pa-1. Her former Republican registration could be a plus if she plays her cards right. This race and PA-10 will probably be the hardest of the new competitive seats for Dems to win.

I think Scott Wallace is probably the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination in PA-1.  He didn't get in that long ago, but IIRC he was recruited to run by the DCCC.

Let's hope he lives up to his grandfather's legacy!

Besides his last name and resources, what exactly makes him substantially superior to Rachel Reddick?

[Gass3268]

Madeleine Dean is dropping out of the Democratic Lt. Governor Primary, running in the new PA-04 with endorsements from Ed Rendell and Michael Nutter.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lean D. Finally a female rep from PA!

[Gass3268]

Lean D. Finally a female rep from PA!

Lean D? This is the MontCo district, should be Safe D.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lamb all-but certain to run in PA-17 no matter the special election results:

http://wesa.fm/post/bumped-new-district-lamb-says-he-ll-run-primary-doesn-t-say-where#stream/0

Dems are certainly getting the ball going on recruiting so fast. Very impressive if they get both DePasquale in PA-10 and Lamb in PA-17.

I hope Rachel Reddick is strong enough to ride a wave in Pa-1. Her former Republican registration could be a plus if she plays her cards right. This race and PA-10 will probably be the hardest of the new competitive seats for Dems to win.

I think Scott Wallace is probably the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination in PA-1.  He didn't get in that long ago, but IIRC he was recruited to run by the DCCC.

Let's hope he lives up to his grandfather's legacy!

Besides his last name and resources, what exactly makes him substantially superior to Rachel Reddick?

Never said he was

[morgieb]

Lean D. Finally a female rep from PA!

Lean D? This is the MontCo district, should be Safe D.

I could see this being Lean D in a Hillary midterm given the lack of an incumbent, but yeah this year it's clearly Safe D.

[Gass3268]

New Roll Call/Inside Elections Ratings:

AZ-02: Toss Up -> Tilts D
CA-10: Leans R -> Tilts R
CA-25: Lean R -> Tilts R
CA-45: Likely R -> Lean R
FL-07: Tilts D -> Lean D
IL-06: Likely R -> Lean R
IA-01: Lean R -> Tilts R
MI-11: Lean R -> Tilts R
NC-13: Solid R -> Likely R
NH-01: Toss Up -> Tilts D
NJ-02: Lean R -> Toss Up
NJ-05: Toss Up -> Tilts D
NJ-07: Likely R -> Lean R
WA-05: Solid R -> Likely R
WA-08: Tilts D -> Toss Up
WI-03: Likely D -> Solid D

Update

[Gass3268]

New Roll Call/Inside Elections Ratings:

AZ-02: Toss Up -> Tilts D
CA-10: Leans R -> Tilts R
CA-25: Lean R -> Tilts R
CA-45: Likely R -> Lean R
FL-07: Tilts D -> Lean D
IL-06: Likely R -> Lean R
IA-01: Lean R -> Tilts R
MI-11: Lean R -> Tilts R
NC-13: Solid R -> Likely R
NH-01: Toss Up -> Tilts D
NJ-02: Lean R -> Toss Up
NJ-05: Toss Up -> Tilts D
NJ-07: Likely R -> Lean R
WA-05: Solid R -> Likely R
WA-08: Tilts D -> Toss Up
WI-03: Likely D -> Solid D

Update

What kind of garbage “expert” has 9 ratings categories? Is “tilts R” or “tilts D” necessary?

Also, what idiot has FL-7 and NJ-5 as only “tilts D” and NJ-2 at “tossup” still?

They have had the most small "c" conservative ratings of all the major prognosticators. Some of these are so behind the times. 

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

@gelliottmorris

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This blue wave is inevitable.

[Sestak]

@gelliottmorris

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This blue wave is inevitable.

Early voting data for what?

[Gass3268]

@gelliottmorris

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This blue wave is inevitable.

Early voting data for what?

Midterm primaries

[GeorgiaModerate]

@gelliottmorris

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This blue wave is inevitable.

Early voting data for what?

Midterm primaries

Which are on March 6.

[Gass3268]

@gelliottmorris

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This blue wave is inevitable.

Early voting data for what?

Midterm primaries

Which are on March 6.

The official kickoff of the 2018 election cycle.

[Gass3268]

Ossoff will not run again in GA-06

[Brittain33]

@gelliottmorris

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This blue wave is inevitable.

Early voting data for what?

Midterm primaries

Which are on March 6.

The official kickoff of the 2018 election cycle.

Were any Dem primaries seriously contested in 2014? We know that Dems are seriously engaged in low turnout races and primaries, so I wouldn't read too much into this we don't already know about the general election.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

@gelliottmorris

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This blue wave is inevitable.

Early voting data for what?

Midterm primaries

Which are on March 6.

The official kickoff of the 2018 election cycle.

Were any Dem primaries seriously contested in 2014? We know that Dems are seriously engaged in low turnout races and primaries, so I wouldn't read too much into this we don't already know about the general election.

There are a lot of seriously contested Republican primaries in Texas this cycle.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I heard a rumor on Dailykos that local dems in Cali want Applegate to drop out as they are afraid of dirt that might come up on him in the GE

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I heard a rumor on Dailykos that local dems in Cali want Applegate to drop out as they are afraid of dirt that might come up on him in the GE

I heard he may run for Orange County Board of Supervisors

[Hindsight was 2020]

I heard a rumor on Dailykos that local dems in Cali want Applegate to drop out as they are afraid of dirt that might come up on him in the GE

I heard he may run for Orange County Board of Supervisors

Yeah the story makes it sound like he is open to the idea so it must be something bad to make him change his tune

[Landslide Lyndon]

I heard a rumor on Dailykos that local dems in Cali want Applegate to drop out as they are afraid of dirt that might come up on him in the GE

I heard he may run for Orange County Board of Supervisors

*San Diego County Board of Supervisors, and yes, I've heard that rumor as well.

If anyone should drop out, it should be Sara Jacobs, seeing as how a carpetbagger who today referred to  (and is now receiving blowback for) Applegate as a "crusty old Marine" - which is admittedly funny - is pretty much the worst possible candidate in this district.

I'm confused. Is carpetbagging a dealbreaker or it depends from the state?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I heard a rumor on Dailykos that local dems in Cali want Applegate to drop out as they are afraid of dirt that might come up on him in the GE

I heard he may run for Orange County Board of Supervisors

Yeah the story makes it sound like he is open to the idea so it must be something bad to make him change his tune

I hope the domestic violence rumors aren't true.

[LimoLiberal]

If Applegate drops out, national Dems need to immediately coalesce around Levin. He's not perfect, but is baggage free and can easily win a open 51-43 Clinton seat in this national environment.

[Rhenna]

I hope this doesn't backfire and force a Chavez and Harkey general election.

[Jeppe]

The Democrats should coalesce around Sara Jacobs in CA-49. We don't need any more 60-something year old businessmen in congress anymore.