2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[junior chįmp]

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It's a little disconcerting that Republicans seem to overperform their generic poll numbers consistently.

I'm getting tired of seeing these GCB numbers tbh. I wanna see Senate polls. We have nothing recent from Montana, Indiana, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Nevada and Missouri.

This brings me back to an ancient article from 2010:

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[Pericles]

What struck me is how the presidential party almost always underperforms their generic ballot. And with Russia revelations and entitlement reform coming in 2018 that seems likely to replicate itself.

[Landslide Lyndon]

We can't really know if Republicans overperform their numbers because two Republican president midterms are missing from this chart: 1990 and 2002. The data are insufficient to reach such a conclusion.

[GeorgiaModerate]

We can't really know if Republicans overperform their numbers because two Republican president midterms are missing from this chart: 1990 and 2002. The data are insufficient to reach such a conclusion.

Right.  The chart needs to be expanded to show which party controlled the WH at the time.  Harry Enten has written that when you control for the WH party, the generic ballot is highly correlated with the actual result.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Let's not forget that in the past college educated whites were the bedrock of the Republican coalition. Things are changing dramatically and they are trending Democratic fast. This group is also much more likely to vote compared to blue collar whites in off year midterm elections. Look at all the one time anti establishment voters who voted for the first time for Trump and to give a big FU to the establishment. I can't see them voting in 2018 with no Trump on the ballot, especially for some generic Republican establishment hack. Trump 2016 brought out a lot of first time voters like Obama in 08. We saw what happened to Obama's coalition in 2010.

[GeorgiaModerate]

New article by 538's Harry Enten: The Democrats' Wave Could Turn Into a Flood

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Considering what a D advantage of 12 points (the current 538 average) or 18 points (the recent CNN poll) could do:

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[Pericles]

I think this answers the dispute we were having before. In 1990 Democrats outperformed by 2.8%, as they led by 5% but went onto win by 7.8%. In 2002 Republicans led by 3.3% but went onto win by 4.8%, though that can plausibly be explained by a late increase in support due to the rush to war with Iraq, and even so the 1990 overperformance by the Democrats is greater. I think the pattern is a bit unclear but you should bet on the party out of power to overperform so not always the Republicans.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

McConnell is privately acknowledging that the GOP might lose both chambers in 2018...

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/366140-mcconnell-saying-gop-could-lose-both-house-and-senate-in-2018-report

Paul Ryan might be thinking the same thing too since he seems eager to exit.

[smoltchanov]

McConnell is privately acknowledging that the GOP might lose both chambers in 2018...

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/366140-mcconnell-saying-gop-could-lose-both-house-and-senate-in-2018-report

Paul Ryan might be thinking the same thing too since he seems eager to exit.

Well, not so private if we all know about that....

[OneJ]

McConnell is privately acknowledging that the GOP might lose both chambers in 2018...

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/366140-mcconnell-saying-gop-could-lose-both-house-and-senate-in-2018-report

Paul Ryan might be thinking the same thing too since he seems eager to exit.

What makes it so crazy is not the fact that they might lose the House, but he acknowledges that the Senate could be lost despite the fact that the Dems don't have a favorable map.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I noticed that the PredictIt markets are heavily favoring an 85+ seat overturn for the Democrats... obviously I know this is unlikely.

[junior chįmp]

I noticed that the PredictIt markets are heavily favoring an 85+ seat overturn for the Democrats... obviously I know this is unlikely.

It's likely imo because all models have been underperforming since Trump won. The VA HoD Dems were forecast to win between 4-6 seats.

Predictive models can be useless under certain circumstances

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I noticed that the PredictIt markets are heavily favoring an 85+ seat overturn for the Democrats... obviously I know this is unlikely.

It's likely imo because all models have been underperforming since Trump won. The VA HoD Dems were forecast to win between 4-6 seats.

Predictive models can be useless under certain circumstances

It COULD happen and I do understand that the polls have been heavily underestimating the Democrats lately but I don't think it will happen.

[Adam Griffin]

Democrats cross 50% in the 538 tracker for the first time: what a glorious Christmas gift!

[Doimper]

Democrats cross 50% in the 538 tracker for the first time: what a glorious Christmas gift!

Hmm. Interesting.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrats cross 50% in the 538 tracker for the first time: what a glorious Christmas gift!

Looks like the new Ipsos/Reuters poll pushed it over the top: D 47, R 33 (D+14).  Their previous poll was 43/32 (D+11).

[heatcharger]

Democrats 50.1%
Republicans 37.3%

I'd bet a thousand dollars they're below 48 by the 10th of January due to Tax Reform Bump.

I'm absolutely willing to take this wager. Pollsters will slow down polling during Christmas/New Year's anyway. Do you have Venmo?

[LimoLiberal]

Democrats 50.1%
Republicans 37.3%

I'd bet a thousand dollars they're below 48 by the 10th of January due to Tax Reform Bump.

I'm absolutely willing to take this wager. Pollsters will slow down polling during Christmas/New Year's anyway. Do you have Venmo?

The bet was between me and myself unfortunately.

[Doimper]

Democrats 50.1%
Republicans 37.3%

I'd bet a thousand dollars they're below 48 by the 10th of January due to Tax Reform Bump.

I'm absolutely willing to take this wager. Pollsters will slow down polling during Christmas/New Year's anyway. Do you have Venmo?

The bet was between me and myself unfortunately.

Interesting. Hmm.

[LimoLiberal]

Democrats 50.1%
Republicans 37.3%

I'd bet a thousand dollars they're below 48 by the 10th of January due to Tax Reform Bump.

I'm absolutely willing to take this wager. Pollsters will slow down polling during Christmas/New Year's anyway. Do you have Venmo?

The bet was between me and myself unfortunately.

Interesting. Hmm.

To be more specific, it was between me and the voice "Rick" in my head. Other voices are more conservative, Rick is center-left.

[Kamala]

Democrats 50.1%
Republicans 37.3%

I'd bet a thousand dollars they're below 48 by the 10th of January due to Tax Reform Bump.

I'm absolutely willing to take this wager. Pollsters will slow down polling during Christmas/New Year's anyway. Do you have Venmo?

The bet was between me and myself unfortunately.

Interesting. Hmm.

To be more specific, it was between me and the voice "Rick" in my head. Other voices are more conservative, Rick is center-left.

I assume “King Lear” is one of those voices?

[The Other Castro]

Democrats are now running in all but 20 districts.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/24/us/democrats-house-control-2018-midterms.html?_r=0

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Democrats cross 50% in the 538 tracker for the first time: what a glorious Christmas gift!

Tax.... reform... BUMP....!!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yep, Republicans from both chambers are preparing for a bloodbath...

Rep. Charlie Dent (R)

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/366360-retiring-gop-rep-party-should-be-prepared-for-the-worst-in-2018-midterms

[Virginiá]

How many more House retirements (or pols resigning to run for something else) can we expect before the deadlines are all up in 2018? Other than some surprise resignations from naughty Congressmen, things have slowed down a good bit, no? How many usually resign/retire the year of the election?