2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

California Republican will be massacred next year.

Worst case scenario....how many House R seats will there be left in CA?

LaMalfa, McClintock, Cook, Nunes, McCarthy, Calvert and Hunter.

That's not their worst-case scenario.  I have McClintock's seat at Likely R and Hunter's at Lean R (closer to toss-up tilt-R than likely R).

Why is "numbskull" Nunes so hard to get rid of?

I am waiting to see the fundraising report for this quarter from one of the candidates who recently-ish jumped in against him.  Also it's not the type of district where we'd see as strong a swing.  Calvert's seat could theoretically flip too, but we'd need to actually recruit a decent candidate instead of the joke some dudes currently running.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

CNN generic ballot:

Democratic 56%
Republican 38%

great poll!

I want to see a 100 seat pickup. Triple digit gains.

[Pericles]

I applied the CNN poll(the margin) to the 2016 House races. It's a 19% swing(Republicans won the House popular vote by 1% in 2016).
2016 House elections
Nancy Pelosi-Democratic: 252+64 57.5%[1]
Paul Ryan-Republican: 183-64 39.6%
435 seats
218 for majority

Alabama 2: Nathan Mathis(D) defeats incumbent Martha Roby(R)
Alaska at-large: Steve Lindbeck(D) defeats incumbent Don Young(R)
Arizona 2: Matt Heinz(D) defeats incumbent Martha McSally(R)
California 1: Jim Reed(D) defeats incumbent Doug LaMalfa(R)
California 10: Michael Eggman(D) defeats incumbent Jeff Denham(R)
California 21: Emilio Huerta(D) defeats incumbent David Valadao(R)
California 25: Bryan Caforio(D) defeats incumbent Steve Knight(R)
California 39: Brett Mourdock(D) defeats incumbent Ed Royce(R)
California 45: Ron Varasteh(D) defeats incumbent Mimi Walters(R)
California 48: Suzanne Savary(D) defeats incumbent Dana Rohrabacher(R)
California 49: Doug Apllegate(D) defeats incumbent Darrell Issa(R)
Colorado 3: Gail Schwartz(D) defeats incumbent Scott Tipton(R)
Colorado 6: Morgan Carroll(D) defeats incumbent Mike Coffman(R)
Florida 6: Bill McCullough(D) defeats incumbent Ron DeSantis(R)
Florida 15: Jim Lange(D) defeats incumbent Dennis Ross(R)
Florida 18: Randy Perkins(D) defeats incumbent Brian Mast(R)
Florida 26: Joe Garcia(D) defeats incumbent Carlos Curbelo(R)
Florida 27: Scott Fuhrman(D) defeats incumbent Ileana Ros-Lehtinen(R)
Illinois 6: Amanda Howland(D) defeats incumbent Peter Roskam(R)
Illinois 12: C J Baricevic(D) defeats incumbent Mike Bost(R)
Illinois 14: Jim Walz(D) defeats incumbent Randy Hultgren(R)
Indiana 9: Shelli Yoder(D) defeats Trey Hollingsworth(R)
Iowa 1: Monica Vernon(D) defeats incumbent Rod Blum(R)
Iowa 3: Jim Mowrer(D) defeats incumbent David Young(R)
Kansas 3: Jay Sidie(D) defeats incumbent Kevin Yoder(R)
Maine 2: Emily Cain(D) defeats incumbent Bruce Poliquin(R)
Michigan 1: Lon Johnson(D) defeats Jack Bergman(R)
Michigan 8: Suzanna Shrekli(D) defeats incumbent Mike Bishop(R)
Michigan 11: Anil Kumar(D) defeats incumbent Dave Trott(R)
Minnesota 2: Angie Craig(D) defeats Jason Lewis(R)
Minnesota 3: Terri Bonoff(D) defeats incumbent Erik Paulsen(R)
Montana at-large: Denise Juneau(D) defeats incumbent Ryan Zinke(R)
Nebraska 2: Incumbent Brad Ashford(D) defeats Don Bacon(R)
New Jersey 7: Peter Jacob(D) defeats incumbent Leonard Lance(R)
New York 1: Anna Throne-Holst(D) defeats incumbent Lee Zeldin(R)
New York 19: Zephyr Teachout(D) defeats John Faso(R)
New York 22: Kim Myers(D) defeats Claudia Tenney(R)
New York 23: John Plumb(D) defeats incumbent Tom Reed(R)
North Carolina 2: John McNeil(D) defeats George Holding(R)
North Carolina 5: Josh Brannon(D) defeats incumbent Virginia Foxx(R)
North Carolina 6: Pete Glidewell(D) defeats incumbent Mark Walker(R)
North Carolina 8: Thomas Mills(D) defeats incumbent Richard Hudson(R)
North Carolina 13: Bruce Davis(D) defeats Ted Budd(R)
Ohio 1: Michele Young(D) defeats incumbent Steve Chabot(R)
Pennsylvania 6: Mike Parrish(D) defeats incumbent Ryan Costello(R)
Pennsylvania 7: Mary Ellen Balchunis(D) defeats incumbent Pat Meehan(R)
Pennsylvania 8: Steve Santarsiero(D) defeats Brian Fitzpatrick(R)
Pennsylvania 16: Christina Hartman(D) defeats Lloyd Smucker(R)
Texas 7: James Cargas(D) defeats incumbent John Culberson(R)
Texas 22: Mark Gibson(D) defeats incumbent Pete Olson(R)
Texas 23: Pete Gallego(D) defeats incumbent Will Hurd(R)
Texas 24: Jan McDowell(D) defeats incumbent Kenny Marchant(R)
Utah 4: Doug Owens(D) defeats incumbent Mia Love(R)
Virginia 5: Jane Dittmar(D) defeats Thomas Garrett Jr(R)
Virginia 7: Eileen Bedell(D) defeats incumbent Dave Brat(R)
Virginia 10: LuAnn Bennett(D) defeats incumbent Barbara Comstock(R)
West Virginia 2: Mark Hunt(D) defeats incumbent Alex Mooney(R)

[1] Plus and minus 58 seats from the OTL results and current tally

[Pericles]

That tax reform bump, am I right? Lol

[Mike Thick]

Don’t want to be a buzzkill, but Didier is a Republican — it was an R vs. R general.

Other than that... gahdayum. If the maps were even close to fair, we would be gaining an even more insanely high number of seats.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I conducted a similar "experiment" where Democrats sweep every seat that R+5 and lower.
In that case they pick up 48 seats.

[Pericles]

Don’t want to be a buzzkill, but Didier is a Republican — it was an R vs. R general.

Other than that... gahdayum. If the maps were even close to fair, we would be gaining an even more insanely high number of seats.

Yep. Going off the 2010 House swingometer if Republicans lost the popular vote by 18% that year they would have 151 seats to 284 Democrats. So you can say gerrymadering saved Republicans 32 seats though it's very rough and of course in some instances gerrymandering could backfire and end up costing Republicans seats once you get a wave like that.

[smoltchanov]

I applied the CNN poll(the margin) to the 2016 House races. It's a 19% swing(Republicans won the House popular vote by 1% in 2016).
2016 House elections
Nancy Pelosi-Democratic: 252+64 57.5%[1]
Paul Ryan-Republican: 183-64 39.6%
435 seats
218 for majority

Alabama 2: Nathan Mathis(D) defeats incumbent Martha Roby(R)
Alaska at-large: Steve Lindbeck(D) defeats incumbent Don Young(R)
Arizona 2: Matt Heinz(D) defeats incumbent Martha McSally(R)
California 1: Jim Reed(D) defeats incumbent Doug LaMalfa(R)
California 10: Michael Eggman(D) defeats incumbent Jeff Denham(R)
California 21: Emilio Huerta(D) defeats incumbent David Valadao(R)
California 25: Bryan Caforio(D) defeats incumbent Steve Knight(R)
California 39: Brett Mourdock(D) defeats incumbent Ed Royce(R)
California 45: Ron Varasteh(D) defeats incumbent Mimi Walters(R)
California 48: Suzanne Savary(D) defeats incumbent Dana Rohrabacher(R)
California 49: Doug Apllegate(D) defeats incumbent Darrell Issa(R)
Colorado 3: Gail Schwartz(D) defeats incumbent Scott Tipton(R)
Colorado 6: Morgan Carroll(D) defeats incumbent Mike Coffman(R)
Florida 6: Bill McCullough(D) defeats incumbent Ron DeSantis(R)
Florida 15: Jim Lange(D) defeats incumbent Dennis Ross(R)
Florida 18: Randy Perkins(D) defeats incumbent Brian Mast(R)
Florida 26: Joe Garcia(D) defeats incumbent Carlos Curbelo(R)
Florida 27: Scott Fuhrman(D) defeats incumbent Ileana Ros-Lehtinen(R)
Illinois 6: Amanda Howland(D) defeats incumbent Peter Roskam(R)
Illinois 12: C J Baricevic(D) defeats incumbent Mike Bost(R)
Illinois 14: Jim Walz(D) defeats incumbent Randy Hultgren(R)
Indiana 9: Shelli Yoder(D) defeats Trey Hollingsworth(R)
Iowa 1: Monica Vernon(D) defeats incumbent Rod Blum(R)
Iowa 3: Jim Mowrer(D) defeats incumbent David Young(R)
Kansas 3: Jay Sidie(D) defeats incumbent Kevin Yoder(R)
Maine 2: Emily Cain(D) defeats incumbent Bruce Poliquin(R)
Michigan 1: Lon Johnson(D) defeats Jack Bergman(R)
Michigan 8: Suzanna Shrekli(D) defeats incumbent Mike Bishop(R)
Michigan 11: Anil Kumar(D) defeats incumbent Dave Trott(R)
Minnesota 2: Angie Craig(D) defeats Jason Lewis(R)
Minnesota 3: Terri Bonoff(D) defeats incumbent Erik Paulsen(R)
Montana at-large: Denise Juneau(D) defeats incumbent Ryan Zinke(R)
Nebraska 2: Incumbent Brad Ashford(D) defeats Don Bacon(R)
New Jersey 7: Peter Jacob(D) defeats incumbent Leonard Lance(R)
New York 1: Anna Throne-Holst(D) defeats incumbent Lee Zeldin(R)
New York 19: Zephyr Teachout(D) defeats John Faso(R)
New York 22: Kim Myers(D) defeats Claudia Tenney(R)
New York 23: John Plumb(D) defeats incumbent Tom Reed(R)
North Carolina 2: John McNeil(D) defeats George Holding(R)
North Carolina 5: Josh Brannon(D) defeats incumbent Virginia Foxx(R)
North Carolina 6: Pete Glidewell(D) defeats incumbent Mark Walker(R)
North Carolina 8: Thomas Mills(D) defeats incumbent Richard Hudson(R)
North Carolina 13: Bruce Davis(D) defeats Ted Budd(R)
Ohio 1: Michele Young(D) defeats incumbent Steve Chabot(R)
Pennsylvania 6: Mike Parrish(D) defeats incumbent Ryan Costello(R)
Pennsylvania 7: Mary Ellen Balchunis(D) defeats incumbent Pat Meehan(R)
Pennsylvania 8: Steve Santarsiero(D) defeats Brian Fitzpatrick(R)
Pennsylvania 16: Christina Hartman(D) defeats Lloyd Smucker(R)
Texas 7: James Cargas(D) defeats incumbent John Culberson(R)
Texas 22: Mark Gibson(D) defeats incumbent Pete Olson(R)
Texas 23: Pete Gallego(D) defeats incumbent Will Hurd(R)
Texas 24: Jan McDowell(D) defeats incumbent Kenny Marchant(R)
Utah 4: Doug Owens(D) defeats incumbent Mia Love(R)
Virginia 5: Jane Dittmar(D) defeats Thomas Garrett Jr(R)
Virginia 7: Eileen Bedell(D) defeats incumbent Dave Brat(R)
Virginia 10: LuAnn Bennett(D) defeats incumbent Barbara Comstock(R)
West Virginia 2: Mark Hunt(D) defeats incumbent Alex Mooney(R)

[1] Plus and minus 58 seats from the OTL results and current tally

You suppose uniform swing? Most likely it will not be so uniform, and if it will be lower in swing and Republican-leaning seats - gains, obviously, will be smaller.

[Pericles]

I applied the CNN poll(the margin) to the 2016 House races. It's a 19% swing(Republicans won the House popular vote by 1% in 2016).
2016 House elections
Nancy Pelosi-Democratic: 252+64 57.5%[1]
Paul Ryan-Republican: 183-64 39.6%
435 seats
218 for majority

Alabama 2: Nathan Mathis(D) defeats incumbent Martha Roby(R)
Alaska at-large: Steve Lindbeck(D) defeats incumbent Don Young(R)
Arizona 2: Matt Heinz(D) defeats incumbent Martha McSally(R)
California 1: Jim Reed(D) defeats incumbent Doug LaMalfa(R)
California 10: Michael Eggman(D) defeats incumbent Jeff Denham(R)
California 21: Emilio Huerta(D) defeats incumbent David Valadao(R)
California 25: Bryan Caforio(D) defeats incumbent Steve Knight(R)
California 39: Brett Mourdock(D) defeats incumbent Ed Royce(R)
California 45: Ron Varasteh(D) defeats incumbent Mimi Walters(R)
California 48: Suzanne Savary(D) defeats incumbent Dana Rohrabacher(R)
California 49: Doug Apllegate(D) defeats incumbent Darrell Issa(R)
Colorado 3: Gail Schwartz(D) defeats incumbent Scott Tipton(R)
Colorado 6: Morgan Carroll(D) defeats incumbent Mike Coffman(R)
Florida 6: Bill McCullough(D) defeats incumbent Ron DeSantis(R)
Florida 15: Jim Lange(D) defeats incumbent Dennis Ross(R)
Florida 18: Randy Perkins(D) defeats incumbent Brian Mast(R)
Florida 26: Joe Garcia(D) defeats incumbent Carlos Curbelo(R)
Florida 27: Scott Fuhrman(D) defeats incumbent Ileana Ros-Lehtinen(R)
Illinois 6: Amanda Howland(D) defeats incumbent Peter Roskam(R)
Illinois 12: C J Baricevic(D) defeats incumbent Mike Bost(R)
Illinois 14: Jim Walz(D) defeats incumbent Randy Hultgren(R)
Indiana 9: Shelli Yoder(D) defeats Trey Hollingsworth(R)
Iowa 1: Monica Vernon(D) defeats incumbent Rod Blum(R)
Iowa 3: Jim Mowrer(D) defeats incumbent David Young(R)
Kansas 3: Jay Sidie(D) defeats incumbent Kevin Yoder(R)
Maine 2: Emily Cain(D) defeats incumbent Bruce Poliquin(R)
Michigan 1: Lon Johnson(D) defeats Jack Bergman(R)
Michigan 8: Suzanna Shrekli(D) defeats incumbent Mike Bishop(R)
Michigan 11: Anil Kumar(D) defeats incumbent Dave Trott(R)
Minnesota 2: Angie Craig(D) defeats Jason Lewis(R)
Minnesota 3: Terri Bonoff(D) defeats incumbent Erik Paulsen(R)
Montana at-large: Denise Juneau(D) defeats incumbent Ryan Zinke(R)
Nebraska 2: Incumbent Brad Ashford(D) defeats Don Bacon(R)
New Jersey 7: Peter Jacob(D) defeats incumbent Leonard Lance(R)
New York 1: Anna Throne-Holst(D) defeats incumbent Lee Zeldin(R)
New York 19: Zephyr Teachout(D) defeats John Faso(R)
New York 22: Kim Myers(D) defeats Claudia Tenney(R)
New York 23: John Plumb(D) defeats incumbent Tom Reed(R)
North Carolina 2: John McNeil(D) defeats George Holding(R)
North Carolina 5: Josh Brannon(D) defeats incumbent Virginia Foxx(R)
North Carolina 6: Pete Glidewell(D) defeats incumbent Mark Walker(R)
North Carolina 8: Thomas Mills(D) defeats incumbent Richard Hudson(R)
North Carolina 13: Bruce Davis(D) defeats Ted Budd(R)
Ohio 1: Michele Young(D) defeats incumbent Steve Chabot(R)
Pennsylvania 6: Mike Parrish(D) defeats incumbent Ryan Costello(R)
Pennsylvania 7: Mary Ellen Balchunis(D) defeats incumbent Pat Meehan(R)
Pennsylvania 8: Steve Santarsiero(D) defeats Brian Fitzpatrick(R)
Pennsylvania 16: Christina Hartman(D) defeats Lloyd Smucker(R)
Texas 7: James Cargas(D) defeats incumbent John Culberson(R)
Texas 22: Mark Gibson(D) defeats incumbent Pete Olson(R)
Texas 23: Pete Gallego(D) defeats incumbent Will Hurd(R)
Texas 24: Jan McDowell(D) defeats incumbent Kenny Marchant(R)
Utah 4: Doug Owens(D) defeats incumbent Mia Love(R)
Virginia 5: Jane Dittmar(D) defeats Thomas Garrett Jr(R)
Virginia 7: Eileen Bedell(D) defeats incumbent Dave Brat(R)
Virginia 10: LuAnn Bennett(D) defeats incumbent Barbara Comstock(R)
West Virginia 2: Mark Hunt(D) defeats incumbent Alex Mooney(R)

[1] Plus and minus 58 seats from the OTL results and current tally

You suppose uniform swing? Most likely it will not be so uniform, and if it will be lower in swing and Republican-leaning seats - gains, obviously, will be smaller.

I wouldn't say that this would be the 2018 result if Democrats won by 18 points, likely Democrats would do better since they're actually competing for the House this time and there are more open seats. However it is interesting to see and gives an idea of how it would go. I found that for 2016 Democrats need to win the House popular vote by I think 12% to gain the House, though hopefully in 2018 that will go down to around 7 or 8%.

[smoltchanov]

^ May be. But 2010, and, especially, 2014 made a pessimist out of me. Even in 2010 many Democrats thought that losses would be minimal (10-20 seats), and in 2014 - most expected gains, not losses. I will not even mention 2016 (President). Democrats in the last decade became extremely adept in "snatching defeat out of jaws of victory". May be - something will change next year (and looking at present day Republican party i would rather welcome it), but for now i prefer to be a cautious pessimist, and expect about +20 seats for Democrats next year in House. If present tendencies will continue until next October - another matter.

[Pericles]

Democrat won 2012 and by more than they were supposed to. And Virginia and Alabama.

[smoltchanov]

Democrat won 2012 and by more than they were supposed to. And Virginia and Alabama.

As i said: IF i will see the same tendencies in early October 2018 - i will be convinced. But - no sooner.

[Gass3268]

California Republican will be massacred next year.

Worst case scenario....how many House R seats will there be left in CA?

LaMalfa, McClintock, Cook, Nunes, McCarthy, Calvert and Hunter.

That's not their worst-case scenario.  I have McClintock's seat at Likely R and Hunter's at Lean R (closer to toss-up tilt-R than likely R).

Yeah, Hunter is dealing with some pretty substantial allegations of using campaign funds for personal expenses. Plus his district swung Democratic by almost 8 points in 2016.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

California Republican will be massacred next year.

Worst case scenario....how many House R seats will there be left in CA?

LaMalfa, McClintock, Cook, Nunes, McCarthy, Calvert and Hunter.

That's not their worst-case scenario.  I have McClintock's seat at Likely R and Hunter's at Lean R (closer to toss-up tilt-R than likely R).

Yeah, Hunter is dealing with some pretty substantial allegations of using campaign funds for personal expenses. Plus his district swung Democratic by almost 8 points in 2016.

For me, the real question is whether Hunter is just raising money for legal expenses and plans to retire right at the filing deadline.  If he's really running again, I suspect the seat will flip (we actually have a relatively decent candidate running here; nothing amazing, but certainly strong enough to beat Hunter assuming he's the Democrat who makes it to the top-two.  If Hunter decides not to run again though, that helps the Republicans a lot (the seat could still flip if the wave is big enough, but he'd be a much heavier lift). 

Btw, the Democrats really need to clear out the clown-car of candidates running against Rohrabacher a bit (maybe offer one or two of them some sort of state government post, encourage them to drop down to some other race, or even just have the DCCC and/or Dem-affiliated groups unambiguously throw their weight behind one or two of the candidates), but something should be done to shrink the Democratic field sooner rather than later.  I might turn out to be making a mountain out of a molehill, but there's one other Republican running who claims he's going to self-fund to the tune of $200,000 (whether he actually will is another matter entirely, hard to say how serious a candidate he is atm).  However, given the size of their field, I worry about Democrats getting boxed out of the November runoff.  I think it is more likely than not that we'll get one of the spots, but I'd feel better if there were one or two fewer Democratic candidates in this race.

[Gass3268]

Republican leaning Politico/MorningConsult gives the Democrats a 10 point lead in the generic ballot.

[Person Man]

At this point, if the democrats can't even get to 15 or 20 seats, they are a lost cause. If they narrowly lose the House, I would just be very disappointed.  What I am expecting is that they will pick up the house, but by such as a narrow margin that Republicans would be sure to win it again in 2020 if Trump gets re-elected. They win 25 or 30 seats. What I am hoping is that they emulate 2006 and have like 30 something or 40 something more seats. Any double digit victory will probably see them with 60 or 70 seats. At that point, they would be under extreme pressure with the base.

[Yank2133]

Republican leaning Politico/MorningConsult gives the Democrats a 10 point lead in the generic ballot.

The writing is on the wall for them.

[Pericles]

The problem is given gerrymandering Democrats probably need to be winning by double digits or at least very high single digits. If Democrats win the popular vote by say 7.5% they probably fall short of winning the House.

[junior chįmp]

Bye bye

Ratings Change: Culberson’s Texas Seat Creeps Closer to Toss-Up

7th District shifts from Leans Republican to Tilts Republican

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah the GOP is really f**ked.

[junior chįmp]

Yeah the GOP is really f**ked.

♩ ♪ ♫ ♬ There was something in the air that night
The mood was right
Oh the GOP is finished ♩ ♪ ♫ ♬

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It's no mystery why Paul Ryan wants to get out of there.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

The problem is given gerrymandering Democrats probably need to be winning by double digits or at least very high single digits. If Democrats win the popular vote by say 7.5% they probably fall short of winning the House.

There's a point with gerrymandering where the dam breaks and losses end up worse than they would be otherwise. This is an entirely illustrative example, but if you gerrymander every district to be R+5-10 and there's an across the board swing of D+12 then you get wiped out despite getting say 44% of the popular vote.

[Adam Griffin]

Bye bye

Ratings Change: Culberson’s Texas Seat Creeps Closer to Toss-Up

7th District shifts from Leans Republican to Tilts Republican

TAX

REFORM

BUMP

[junior chįmp]

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