Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations

[The Mikado]

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Sean Hannity doesn't know the difference between David and Solomon (the King who actually had 700 wives and 300 concubines).

[Cactus Jack]

Strange hopping in would end Moore once and for all. So, as far as I'm concerned, Godspeed to Big Luther.

[Kamala]

Quoth Big Luther, "Never Moore."

[IceSpear]

Hannity is a hero in Alabama. Don't take him lightly.

[Holmes]

Hannity is a hero in Alabama. Don't take him lightly.

Yes, in Alabama, they revere big necks (it's a sign of manliness) and Hannity has the biggest neck of all. It's even larger than his head.

[DrScholl]

Strange is no Lisa Murkowski. He has zero appeal to Democrats and it would take Democrats for him to win. Assuming that he was able to take half of the Republican vote from Moore, he'd still need to take quite a few votes from Jones as well.

[Virginiá]

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Sean Hannity doesn't know the difference between David and Solomon (the King who actually had 700 wives and 300 concubines).

In a way it's kind of amusing watching how far some of these conservatives will go to defend their politicians, as if not doing so would be the end of the world.

I'd like to say this is a new low for Hannity, but somehow I feel he's done worse.

[The Mikado]

Strange running would be purely to torpedo Moore. Strange cannot win and probably knows that.

Honestly, IF Strange does jump in, this race is Lean Dem. Jones will get somewhere 40-43 of the vote either way, he just needs Moore to drop below that number, which splitting the GOP vote could make possible.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Hannity is a hero in Alabama. Don't take him lightly.

Between Sean and Trump why is 'Bama in love with a douchebag from Queens and a douchebag from Long Island while a the same time hating the East Coast?

[Doimper]

Sabato:

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[Gustaf]

So, the Republicans are gonna rally behind a child rapist now? I really wish the fate of the world rested on people with morals, faith and values rather than these false prophets in the Republican party.

[Fudotei]

Lean/Likely D which should make for some very interesting results (I'm of the opinion that the 2018 gubernatorial race in Alabama might be fairly competitive though is Likely R) for the state overall.

Here's the problem: this is probably the single worst thing that could happen to Moore, given that he's basically riding Alabama's evangelical Protestant base. Independents lean Jones, as do non-evangelicals overall.  (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/9-key-questions-about-roy-moore-and-the-alabama-senate-race/)

Moore needs the evangelical base to say "this is bad but probably either untrue or not a big deal" - what will probably end up being called child molestation.

Moore becomes so crucially unacceptable because it becomes clear that image is a complete facade, an electoral play for votes instead of genuine conviction or belief in Scripture. "A man with his heart in God," they'll say, "wouldn't have his hands in a 14 year old."

Straw that breaks the camel's back? Not exactly, but it's such a targeted blow to the base. The option of "Jones will be another Dem stooge" doesn't work as well either, considering Jones is headed to Schumer's Democratic Caucus (few have an opinion on him) rather than Pelosi's House. That means that Moore has to fight an entire election on abortion, which he can do but will not help him among the independent base. No one wants "Abortion is baby slaughter" blasted across their FM stations and it doesn't convince people.

I'd wait for data before making a prediction but Moore has shown himself to not only be a deeply controversial, offensive, and unprofessional politician - he's also a perennial liar and child molester who has covered up an immoral sin for electoral gain.

The transformation of Moore from "Dominionist who wants to blow up the GOP caucus" (be cautious, but throw a wrench into the Senate to make it work less) into "lying election-hunter who molested a middle schooler" (unacceptable) should, if Jones makes that line work, shut down Bannon's rebellion.

The "revolution" of Duginists, child molesters, and Army-privatizers? Good luck with that.

[Fudotei]

While the allegations do not allege that Moore outright committed rape, and indeed went along with as consensual you can be with someone who has barely hit puberty, that does not negate the fact that Roy Moore is - in all probability, given there's no reason to lie and a poor half-baked excuse by the Moore campaign - a sexual predator who deserves to be shot more than he deserves to be a sitting U.S. Senator.

[Harlow]

Greg Gianforte won in Montana this year the day after he body-slammed a journalist; I don't really have faith that these accusations will sink Moore at all. I hope I'm proven wrong.

Well, as has been stated a ton of times since the MT special, the body slam happened after most of the votes were already in. It's possible Gianforte would have still won even if he body-slammed a reporter right before voting started, but as it stands, Montana is a bad example to use when arguing whether certain things matter or not.

I hope you're right.

[KingSweden]

Fudotei, excellent posts. Helpful to get some insight from someone fairly right-leaning

[swf541]

Fudotei, excellent posts. Helpful to get some insight from someone fairly right-leaning

Agreed, my thanks as well

[Oryxslayer]

Sabato:

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This is arguably where the rubber hits the road. I don't think Trump, when in the middle of the Access Hollywood indecent, ever hit anything close to 80%. I might be wrong, but I think he peaked at high 50s/low 60s in % of people who want him to withdraw. And of course, this number was boosted by the fact that 40-45% of it was Left leaning individuals who simply wanted Trump gone. The fact the number remained low meant that when the media story shifted, some of the people who disapproved of Trumps actions came home.

It is now medias/team dems job to actually make the story stick and bring forward more evidence in order to refute the claims of Fake News. Unfortunately, with the data right now, I don't think it will work. Perhaps things will change...

Fudotei, excellent posts. Helpful to get some insight from someone fairly right-leaning

Agreed, my thanks as well

[Virginiá]

Sabato:

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Oh wow. To be fair, I probably wouldn't believe it if I hadn't heard the news coverage of it yet. I'd probably be like "lol wtf?"

Not believing stuff or flat out throwing their hands up and saying they don't even care has been the foundation of Trump supporters justifications for continued support of Trump, so I imagine it is the same for Republicans in general.

In their minds, it's not that they would support someone they know to be a sexual predator, it's that they don't (or won't?) believe the accusations, because they can't break free of their tribal/partisan thinking.

[Rookie Yinzer]

The saddest part is that Roy Moore will win the white women vote overwhelmingly. Then they will give some lame ass excuse for why they had to vote for him like abortion or same sex marriage which has already been decided by the Supreme Court or because Hillary Clinton ate a grapefruit for breakfast in 1985.

[Babeuf]

I wonder how many people donated to Doug Jones today because of this.. guessing his fundraising got a nice boost.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Absolutely disgusting.


Of course he won't withdraw or step aside. Just like with Akin, it is Mitch McConnell's fault that he tried to rape underage girls. And will be Mitch McConnell's fault when he falls 1 vote short on something, just like with healthcare.

I have given the establishment many lumps in the past, including over pushing flawed candidates, but when Conservatives blow both of their own feet off with a shotgun, there stupidity is always someone else's fault.

Quit nominating sleaze balls, and maybe you wouldn't have Democratic Senators in Deeply Republican states, thwarting your agenda at every turn.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Whether we like it or not, Roy Moore will win by double digits (between 10 and 20 imo). This sexual accusation wave is very similar to what happened with Donald Trump in Mid-October, several establishment Republicans came out against him (and then came back to him before election day lol), if the Republicans find a way to disprove this it'll help him even more. I'm not sure why people think all of these establishment figures coming out against Trump Roy Moore will hurt him, it won't.

[Confused Democrat]

Whether we like it or not, Roy Moore will win by double digits (between 10 and 20 imo). This sexual accusation wave is very similar to what happened with Donald Trump in Mid-October, several establishment Republicans came out against him (and then came back to him before election day lol), if the Republicans find a way to disprove this it'll help him even more. I'm not sure why people think all of these establishment figures coming out against Trump Roy Moore will hurt him, it won't.

But muh Donald Trump won in 2016 #analysis

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Whether we like it or not, Roy Moore will win by double digits (between 10 and 20 imo). This sexual accusation wave is very similar to what happened with Donald Trump in Mid-October, several establishment Republicans came out against him (and then came back to him before election day lol), if the Republicans find a way to disprove this it'll help him even more. I'm not sure why people think all of these establishment figures coming out against Trump Roy Moore will hurt him, it won't.

Yup. lol @ the people in this thread thinking Alabamans would vote for a Democrat over a child molester. I've been saying for months now that Moore could hold a Klan rally or molest someone on live tv and he'd have a 100% shot at winning.

are you gonna wipe that poo when you're done

[mcmikk]

I think we all know what this means...