Ecuador election, 19th February
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 17, 2021, 10:50:54 AM
News: EV Calculator updated with new apportionment numbers, custom labels, orange party color and more. Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, afleitch, Hash)
  Ecuador election, 19th February
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 [4]
Author Topic: Ecuador election, 19th February  (Read 12357 times)
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,453
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #75 on: April 03, 2017, 01:28:20 AM »

Yup, Lenin won. Shame.
Logged
God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,444
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #76 on: April 03, 2017, 01:29:11 AM »

1917-2017: LENIN LIVES ON
Logged
In hoc signo vinces ☩
Scott
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,139
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -7.48

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #77 on: April 03, 2017, 02:12:33 AM »


And now I have an excuse to use this gif

Logged
MAINEiac4434
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,297
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #78 on: April 03, 2017, 02:21:47 AM »

Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,211


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #79 on: April 03, 2017, 02:30:47 AM »

Should I be happy about this?
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 49,594


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #80 on: April 03, 2017, 03:37:28 AM »

"I cordially invite Lasso to leave Ecuador within 30 days (with or without his tax haven millions) " -Julian Assange

https://twitter.com/JulianAssange/status/848710934470307841
Logged
smoltchanov
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,810
Russian Federation


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #81 on: April 03, 2017, 03:38:34 AM »


Well, if Lenin is at least somewhat similar to our Lenin - unlikely...
Logged
MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,474


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #82 on: April 03, 2017, 04:33:41 AM »

Moreno's personal story is very inspiring (paralyzed after a shooting, subsquent advocacy for handicapped people). He was very close to win the 2012 Nobel Peace Prize.

I think it's wonderful to see someone like him beating the adversity. Certainly a very positive message as far as disability rights are concerned.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,050
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #83 on: April 03, 2017, 05:10:31 AM »

Moreno's personal story is very inspiring (paralyzed after a shooting, subsquent advocacy for handicapped people). He was very close to win the 2012 Nobel Peace Prize.

I think it's wonderful to see someone like him beating the adversity. Certainly a very positive message as far as disability rights are concerned.

Roughly the same background as Norbert Hofer. The difference is that Lenin was shot, while Hofer's paraglyder collapsed. Both seems to be heavily involved in the work for handicapped people though.
Logged
Babeuf
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 366


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #84 on: April 03, 2017, 12:49:51 PM »

Excellent result!
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,211


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #85 on: April 03, 2017, 02:38:06 PM »


Well, if Lenin is at least somewhat similar to our Lenin - unlikely...

Is he though, aside from name and political matrix quadrant?
Logged
smoltchanov
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,810
Russian Federation


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #86 on: April 03, 2017, 03:29:01 PM »


Well, if Lenin is at least somewhat similar to our Lenin - unlikely...

Is he though, aside from name and political matrix quadrant?

Both are, undoubtely, leftist, but i think an Ecuadoran one is more reasonable and less devilishly cunning..
Logged
Pyro
PyroTheFox
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,287
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #87 on: April 03, 2017, 07:31:39 PM »

Logged
Sir John Johns
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 412
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #88 on: April 06, 2017, 03:46:11 PM »

Map of the runoff:



The patterns are broadly similar to that of the first round, with Lasso winning overwhelmingly the indigenous vote, notably the Shuar, the Saraguro, and the indigenous peoples of the Central Sierra (Panzaleo, Puruhá, Salasaca and, to a lesser extent, Cañari). Maybe the first time in Ecuadorian history, the winning candidate lost the two largest cities of the country, Guayaquil and Quito, which were both won by Lasso. The conservative candidate also topped the polls in the urban part of every single provincial capitals of the Sierra (Tulcán, Ibarra, Latacunga, Ambato, Riobamba, Guaranda, Azogues, Cuenca, and Loja). Like in first round, Moreno won every single province in the Costa, getting his best result in Manabí.
Logged
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,993
Colombia


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #89 on: April 06, 2017, 04:26:49 PM »

It seems as if, in the cities, the wealthiest and middle-class sections voted for Lasso and the poorer barrios voted for Lenín. Is that correct? Obviously Samborondón in Guayas voted quasi-unanimously for Lasso.
Logged
God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,444
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #90 on: April 06, 2017, 07:49:49 PM »

Thanks a lot for the map, SJJ! Smiley

How come the indigenous vote is so right-wing in Ecuador? I seem to remember that the opposite is true in most Latin American countries (at least in Peru, Bolivia, Brazil afaik).
Logged
Sir John Johns
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 412
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #91 on: April 07, 2017, 07:43:20 AM »

It seems as if, in the cities, the wealthiest and middle-class sections voted for Lasso and the poorer barrios voted for Lenín. Is that correct? Obviously Samborondón in Guayas voted quasi-unanimously for Lasso.

Yes, it’s correct, at least for Quito (where Lasso performed the best in the northern, wealthiest, part of the city) and for Guayaquil (where Lasso topped the poll in the downtown area, losing the poorer suburbs of Febres Cordero, Ximena, and Pascuales to Moreno). Unfortunately, I can’t find data on poverty distribution in the other major cities of the country. La Puntilla, Samborondón, a wealthy, white-flight, suburb of Guayaquil, is indeed Lasso’s third best parish in the country (the two best parishes are both located in the Shuar-populated part of the Morona Santiago province); he won there 90.1% of the vote.

Thanks a lot for the map, SJJ! Smiley

How come the indigenous vote is so right-wing in Ecuador? I seem to remember that the opposite is true in most Latin American countries (at least in Peru, Bolivia, Brazil afaik).

There are several explanations for that.

Firstly, a quite large segment of the indigenous voters didn’t vote for the conservative candidate per se, but for the leading opponent to Correa. See for example the difference between the presidential and the national assemblymen’s elections in the Shuar- and Saraguro populated areas: in these places, indigenous voters voted for Lasso in the presidential poll but for Pachakutik, a fairly left-wing party, in the legislative election. I have already gave several reasons for why the indigenous voters dislikes Correa: the government’s support for mega-mining and oil drilling in indigenous-populated areas; Correa’s feud with the CONAIE, the main indigenous organization; crackdown on indigenous protests (remember that the province of Morona Santiago is under a state of emergency); modification of the water law in a sense that seems to favor big agro-business over small-scale farmers; Correa’s long-time refusal to comply with Pachakutik’s indigenist platform (transformation of Ecuador into a plurinational state; creation of an indigenous justice system; comprehensive agrarian reform; aggressive promotion of indigenous languages).

Secondly, while in office as president (2002-2005), Lucio Gutiérrez, a cholo (in short, a person of indigenous extraction who no longer self-identify as indigenous but as a mestizo), used the oil windfall to build clientele networks in the indigenous-populated areas, whose previous governments basically didn’t give a damn about; as such, Gutiérrez appeared as the first president of Ecuador to truly care about indigenous’ plight and remained widely popular in the central Sierra and in northern Oriente. This year, it seems that the Gutiérrez’s political machine switched its support to Lasso, the best-placed opposition candidate, permitting the conservative candidate to get strong results in Napo (where the local indigenous voted however for Gutiérrez’s PSP in the legislative election), Orellana, Bolívar, Chimborazo, and Tungurahua.

Finally, there are local factors: the existence of a significant evangelical indigenous community in Chimborazo (where the local evangelical Amauta Yuyay party endorsed Lasso); the apparent inefficiency of the government’s social programs to effectively decrease poverty in Chimborazo and Cotopaxi; the endorsement of Lasso by Marcelino Chumpi, the Shuar prefect of Morona Santiago.
Logged
God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,444
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #92 on: April 07, 2017, 12:45:38 PM »

Firstly, a quite large segment of the indigenous voters didn’t vote for the conservative candidate per se, but for the leading opponent to Correa. See for example the difference between the presidential and the national assemblymen’s elections in the Shuar- and Saraguro populated areas: in these places, indigenous voters voted for Lasso in the presidential poll but for Pachakutik, a fairly left-wing party, in the legislative election. I have already gave several reasons for why the indigenous voters dislikes Correa: the government’s support for mega-mining and oil drilling in indigenous-populated areas; Correa’s feud with the CONAIE, the main indigenous organization; crackdown on indigenous protests (remember that the province of Morona Santiago is under a state of emergency); modification of the water law in a sense that seems to favor big agro-business over small-scale farmers; Correa’s long-time refusal to comply with Pachakutik’s indigenist platform (transformation of Ecuador into a plurinational state; creation of an indigenous justice system; comprehensive agrarian reform; aggressive promotion of indigenous languages).

Ugh, that's incredibly disappointing. Thanks for the explanation though!
Logged
warandwar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 605
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #93 on: April 07, 2017, 05:16:47 PM »

Firstly, a quite large segment of the indigenous voters didn’t vote for the conservative candidate per se, but for the leading opponent to Correa. See for example the difference between the presidential and the national assemblymen’s elections in the Shuar- and Saraguro populated areas: in these places, indigenous voters voted for Lasso in the presidential poll but for Pachakutik, a fairly left-wing party, in the legislative election. I have already gave several reasons for why the indigenous voters dislikes Correa: the government’s support for mega-mining and oil drilling in indigenous-populated areas; Correa’s feud with the CONAIE, the main indigenous organization; crackdown on indigenous protests (remember that the province of Morona Santiago is under a state of emergency); modification of the water law in a sense that seems to favor big agro-business over small-scale farmers; Correa’s long-time refusal to comply with Pachakutik’s indigenist platform (transformation of Ecuador into a plurinational state; creation of an indigenous justice system; comprehensive agrarian reform; aggressive promotion of indigenous languages).

Ugh, that's incredibly disappointing. Thanks for the explanation though!

If you're interested in indigenous politics in Ecuador, I'd highly recommend "Crude Chronicles," by Suzana Sawyer.
Logged
Sir John Johns
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 412
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #94 on: April 08, 2017, 04:27:19 AM »





Logged
Sir John Johns
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 412
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #95 on: April 16, 2017, 05:18:09 PM »








Logged
emotional hardcore
BRTD
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 94,632
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #96 on: April 16, 2017, 09:12:34 PM »


Good to see you're supporting a right-wing candidate.

I'm supporting a center-right candidate over a de facto (per support of Assange) far right candidate.

I'll hope you content in screwing the poor, and the indigenous population.

LOL
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 [4]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.067 seconds with 13 queries.