VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Dr. Arch]

You have to love the double standard.

Gillespie has been race-baiting this entire cycle. But it is the latino ad that gets limp-**** moderates upset.

Americans just suck.

Because it was just plain bad and deserved to be called out. Ftr, those ld moderates you dislike make up the majority of Virginians. If you don't like that, feel free to pack up and move to CA, IL, or some other mismanaged state that is circling the drain. Are you even a Virginian or are you just using VA as an avatar?

Holy crap, so aggressive.

[Holmes]

Oh yikes

[Yank2133]

You have to love the double standard.

Gillespie has been race-baiting this entire cycle. But it is the latino ad that gets limp-**** moderates upset.

Americans just suck.

Because it was just plain bad and deserved to be called out. Ftr, those ld moderates you dislike make up the majority of Virginians. If you don't like that, feel free to pack up and move to CA, IL, or some other mismanaged state that is circling the drain. Are you even a Virginian or are you just using VA as an avatar?

I am a Virginian and I am sick and tired of jackasses who keep arguing in bad faith. They don't care about race-baiting, they are mainly upset because this ad hits close to home and deep down they know it is true.

[SoLongAtlas]

You have to love the double standard.

Gillespie has been race-baiting this entire cycle. But it is the latino ad that gets limp-**** moderates upset.

Americans just suck.

Because it was just plain bad and deserved to be called out. Ftr, those ld moderates you dislike make up the majority of Virginians. If you don't like that, feel free to pack up and move to CA, IL, or some other mismanaged state that is circling the drain. Are you even a Virginian or are you just using VA as an avatar?

I am a Virginian and I am sick and tired of jackasses who keep arguing in bad faith. They don't care about race-baiting, they are mainly upset because this ad hits close to home and deep down they know it is true.

How many incidences of Confederate trucks running down little kids have occurred in the Commonwealth?

[Gustaf]

You have to love the double standard.

Gillespie has been race-baiting this entire cycle. But it is the latino ad that gets limp-**** moderates upset.

Americans just suck.

Because it was just plain bad and deserved to be called out. Ftr, those ld moderates you dislike make up the majority of Virginians. If you don't like that, feel free to pack up and move to CA, IL, or some other mismanaged state that is circling the drain. Are you even a Virginian or are you just using VA as an avatar?

I am a Virginian and I am sick and tired of jackasses who keep arguing in bad faith. They don't care about race-baiting, they are mainly upset because this ad hits close to home and deep down they know it is true.

How many incidences of Confederate trucks running down little kids have occurred in the Commonwealth?

That's a very literal reading. I took it more to be about the resurgence of white supremacy which is undeniably happening in Virginia and elsewhere right now.

Regardless, it's a pulled ad from an external advocacy group which is not linked to Northam. Why are you making it into such a big deal?

[Yank2133]

You have to love the double standard.

Gillespie has been race-baiting this entire cycle. But it is the latino ad that gets limp-**** moderates upset.

Americans just suck.

Because it was just plain bad and deserved to be called out. Ftr, those ld moderates you dislike make up the majority of Virginians. If you don't like that, feel free to pack up and move to CA, IL, or some other mismanaged state that is circling the drain. Are you even a Virginian or are you just using VA as an avatar?

I am a Virginian and I am sick and tired of jackasses who keep arguing in bad faith. They don't care about race-baiting, they are mainly upset because this ad hits close to home and deep down they know it is true.

How many incidences of Confederate trucks running down little kids have occurred in the Commonwealth?

Please, Ed literally ran a campaign tying Northam to MS-13 gang.

So save me the phony outrage.

Like I said, moderates always get exposed when stuff like this happens. And they are big reason why the GOP gets away with it. They always hold Democrats accountable (and they should), but they let Republicans off the hook.

The fact this ad could cost Northam votes, while Ed's ads won't says it all.

[SoLongAtlas]

You have to love the double standard.

Gillespie has been race-baiting this entire cycle. But it is the latino ad that gets limp-**** moderates upset.

Americans just suck.

Because it was just plain bad and deserved to be called out. Ftr, those ld moderates you dislike make up the majority of Virginians. If you don't like that, feel free to pack up and move to CA, IL, or some other mismanaged state that is circling the drain. Are you even a Virginian or are you just using VA as an avatar?

I am a Virginian and I am sick and tired of jackasses who keep arguing in bad faith. They don't care about race-baiting, they are mainly upset because this ad hits close to home and deep down they know it is true.

How many incidences of Confederate trucks running down little kids have occurred in the Commonwealth?

That's a very literal reading. I took it more to be about the resurgence of white supremacy which is undeniably happening in Virginia and elsewhere right now.

Regardless, it's a pulled ad from an external advocacy group which is not linked to Northam. Why are you making it into such a big deal?

Most of those goons in Cville were from out of state. As to the second item, I am making this an issue because any self-respecting, professional campaign would have distanced themselves from a supporting PAC's controversial ad publicly and pretty much the day of. To do otherwise, shows weakness and tacit approval of said ad. EG will gain from this liberal Dem vs. moderate Dem mixed signalling and eat it up both operationally and electorally on the 7th.

Edit: the fact that it took a terrorist attack to make the LV group pull this ad and there is still no official RN campaign response is telling.

[Oryxslayer]

Maybe you guys missed my analysis earlier, but I fail to see how this ad will dramatically alter the race. It orogionally only had 32K behind it in NOVA, miniscule compared to the 4.5 million being spent by Gillesipe and Northam combined in that market. Now with it cut, not even those voters will see it. Rather, the primary viewers of the Latino Victory ad before, and after it being cut are partisans - mainly out of state. If you are on the right or the left you will see the ad in your political/social feed, linked by someone wanting to make a point. But you have already decided which way to vote, and if you are going to vote. This is arguably why I think Northam doesn't need to mention the ad: they were not directly connected to him, they ran the ad for a very limited window of time, and mentioning them will draw unwanted attention.

What is the local news in VA even talking about? This ad? Or the Mueller investgation? Or the NY attack? Or local campaign goings on in the final days? Or tax reform? Or the HoD?

[swf541]

Maybe you guys missed my analysis earlier, but I fail to see how this ad will dramatically alter the race. It orogionally only had 32K behind it in NOVA, miniscule compared to the 4.5 million being spent by Gillesipe and Northam combined in that market. Now with it cut, not even those voters will see it. Rather, the primary viewers of the Latino Victory ad before, and after it being cut are partisans - mainly out of state. If you are on the right or the left you will see the ad in your political/social feed, linked by someone wanting to make a point. But you have already decided which way to vote, and if you are going to vote. This is arguably why I think Northam doesn't need to mention the ad: they were not directly connected to him, they ran the ad for a very limited window of time, and mentioning them will draw unwanted attention.

What is the local news in VA even talking about? This ad? Or the Mueller investgation? Or the NY attack? Or local campaign goings on in the final days? Or tax reform? Or the HoD?

[SoLongAtlas]

Maybe you guys missed my analysis earlier, but I fail to see how this ad will dramatically alter the race. It orogionally only had 32K behind it in NOVA, miniscule compared to the 4.5 million being spent by Gillesipe and Northam combined in that market. Now with it cut, not even those voters will see it. Rather, the primary viewers of the Latino Victory ad before, and after it being cut are partisans - mainly out of state. If you are on the right or the left you will see the ad in your political/social feed, linked by someone wanting to make a point. But you have already decided which way to vote, and if you are going to vote. This is arguably why I think Northam doesn't need to mention the ad: they were not directly connected to him, they ran the ad for a very limited window of time, and mentioning them will draw unwanted attention.

What is the local news in VA even talking about? This ad? Or the Mueller investgation? Or the NY attack? Or local campaign goings on in the final days? Or tax reform? Or the HoD?

Gee let's look at some of the top stories at the most popular daily VA papers' sites:
 
http://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/latino-victory-fund-pulls-truck-themed-anti-gillespie-ad-after/article_f6e38527-fbd3-52eb-8b63-03a46c109c7c.html

https://pilotonline.com/news/government/politics/virginia/controversial-anti-gillespie-ad-with-racial-images-designed-to-lure/article_548d9534-e799-5d61-96cb-5906578bb811.html

These circulate with older VA residents and transit areas, VA gubernatorials have ~40% turnout, you see the picture right?

[GeorgiaModerate]

VirginiaModerate (I think) guesstimated upthread that this would give Gillespie 5,000 votes.  If true, that's not going to make the difference unless this race is a lot closer than everyone thinks.  There were over 2 million votes cast in the 2013 gubernatorial election.

(FWIW, I believe race-baiting ads are deplorable no matter who they come from.)

[Gass3268]

Another Ralph Northam supports sex offenders ad from Gillespie

Will their be a chorus of condemnation to this one too?

[Frodo]

Another Ralph Northam supports sex offenders ad from Gillespie

Will their be a chorus of commendation to this one too?

Chorus of condemnation, you mean? 

[Roronoa D. Law]

Another Ralph Northam supports sex offenders ad from Gillespie

Will their be a chorus of commendation to this one too?

No, America has a pretty low bar when it comes to Republicans and that was before Trump.

[Virginiá]

Another Ralph Northam supports sex offenders ad from Gillespie

Will their be a chorus of condemnation to this one too?

Gillespie gunna Gillespie

[Yank2133]

Another Ralph Northam supports sex offenders ad from Gillespie

Will their be a chorus of commendation to this one too?

No, America has a pretty low bar when it comes to Republicans and that was before Trump.

He is also not making white people feel uncomfortable. So it is good, people will ignore this.

[Gass3268]

Another Ralph Northam supports sex offenders ad from Gillespie

Will their be a chorus of commendation to this one too?

Chorus of condemnation, you mean? 

Thanks

[Hindsight was 2020]

Lila is there any sign this will/has effect Ralph other than "people are saying" and guessing?

[Dr. Arch]

Another Ralph Northam supports sex offenders ad from Gillespie

Will their be a chorus of condemnation to this one too?

VAModerate, we're waiting.

[SoLongAtlas]

Another Ralph Northam supports sex offenders ad from Gillespie

Will their be a chorus of condemnation to this one too?

VAModerate, we're waiting.

My previous posts about both sides doing this should suffice. I think I'm going to just wait it out and comment here again on the 8th.

[heatcharger]

This minor fiasco kind of stems from the lack of understanding of the political environment by new left-wing groups such as the one that put out this ad. Yes, it's not fair that Gillespie can run a campaign deep in the gutter and Northam can't, but that's the reality the voters and the media have created, so you have to stick with it for now.

[henster]

I think it's ridiculous they are trying to insinuate a pediatrician somehow supports pedophiles, I would really like to talk a voter who genuinely believes this.

[DrScholl]

Gillespie is not in a good position if he is running an ad like this with less than a week to go.

[Virginiá]

This minor fiasco kind of stems from the lack of understanding of the political environment by new left-wing groups such as the one that put out this ad. Yes, it's not fair that Gillespie can run a campaign deep in the gutter and Northam can't, but that's the reality the voters and the media have created, so you have to stick with it for now.

I would also add that while that is kind of unfair, it's not like I want my party or supporting groups to get into the gutter themselves. I mean is it even necessary? Since when is our ability to win dependent on controversial ads? Especially after listening to a lot of people on the left say we need to promote our ideas and not focus so much on questions of character.

[Oryxslayer]

While the discussion is mainly on Latino Priorities, DDHQ decided to update their HoD projections.



8 seats moved towards the dems, 8 towards the pubs.

Overall, their projection now looks like a D gain of 9 to 11, a rather large swing.

Read more here: https://decisiondeskhq.com/news/va-house-of-delegates-updates-1031/

Most interesting I think is their analysis of HD 100 (East Shore Delmarva tossup seat), which has the R incumbent barely raising money at all. Certainly the moves of one who either expects an easy victory, or is expecting the Northam regional base to turnout and he never had a chance.