What if your House seat opened up?

[Figueira]

Suppose that your Congressperson retires in 2018. Who runs in the following election, and who wins?

[Thank you for being a friend...]

ooh great idea for post.

My congressman (for about a month now) is Stephen Lynch (my avatar says PA because that's where I lived for most of my life).  If he retires, I'm not familiar with the local Democrats, but I'm sure it would be a State Senator or State Representative from the district...  this district includes South Boston so it may be someone from there.  The Democrat that wins the primary has a very, very good chance of winning the general election.

[Xing]

That would be an incredibly short amount of time in Congress for Jayapal. If that were to happen, maybe Walkinshaw would give it another go.

[Dr. Arch]

I don't know. There's practically no bench in Wisconsin. Burke, maybe? And she's beyond underwhelming.

[KingSweden]

DelBene retiring probably leads to one of the local Legislators jumping in. Roger Goodman, maybe? Possibly a Microsoft exec again

[LLR]

My City Councilman, Ben Kallos, might run (he's a great guy and legislator), but he's still like 36 so this year wouldn't be great. I'm sure he'll run when Maloney retires though.

[Seattle]

That would be an incredibly short amount of time in Congress for Jayapal. If that were to happen, maybe Walkinshaw would give it another go.

100% both McDermott and Walkinshaw would battle it out. Maybe Sawant too?

[Young Conservative]

Well, it won't open up for years, but my state rep would run, a Local trumpesque businessman and my state senator.

[jamestroll]

I live in UT-04.

If it opened up and it was at least a neutral year, it could be quite competitive. Doug Owens came within five during a leaning GOP year.

I will be moving to St Louis area soon. Unsure if I will be in MO-01 or MO-02

If MO-01 opened up, it would be interesting to see which Democrat would win that primary. GOP wouldn't stand a chance.

MO-02, eh, it has voted for Nixon and McCaskill in the past. It possibly voted for Koster and Kander. But I never crunched the numbers.  It goes solidly for GOP presidential candidates. Though current lines, was close-ish in 08, and Trump may have dropped a bit from Romney. Open seat in a heavy Dem year could be quite competitive. But neutral  year, it would go GOP.

[PAK Man]

Steve King's retirement would probably set off a free-for-all among Republicans. Not entirely sure who would jump in, but I could see a somewhat serious Democrat running in an open seat.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Actual home: Probably some municipal politician or state legislator from Worcester, although I'd be pleasantly surprised if someone from, say, the Amherst/Northampton area got in and won.
School year/currently registered: Some Brookline/Newton/Needham-area hack, hopefully Jewish.

[publicunofficial]

Kilmer could either be a lifer or possibly run for Senate when Murray/Cantwell retires.


Best possible recruits, in order of likely-hood:

Democrats:

State Sen. Kevin Van de Wege (Sequim)
State Rep. Mike Chapman (Port Angeles)
State Sen. Christine Rolfes (Bainbridge Island)
State Rep. Drew Hansen (Bainbridge Island)
State Rep. Laurie Jinkins (Tacoma)
Tacoma Mayor Marilyn Strickland
Public Lands Commissioner Hillary Franz (Bainbridge Island)


Republicans:
State Sen. Jan Angel (Port Orchard)
State Rep. Michelle Caldier (Port Orchard)
State Rep. Jesse Young (Gig Harbor)
State Rep. Dan Griffey (Allyn)
State Rep. Drew MacEwen (Union)
State Rep. Jim Walsh (R - Aberdeen)

Despite being competitive on paper, Democrats have held WA-06 since 1965, and Republicans have made very little effort to change that (Closest election since 2000 was 2010, when Norm Dicks got 58% of the vote instead of his usual ~70%.

[Mike Thick]

I wish Jeff Gorell would give it another go, but that wouldn't happen. We'd probably be stuck with another Dagnesses type put up against someone like Jacqui Irwin or Steve Bennett, who would win easily.

[Maxwell]

Maybe in like 20 years if it opened up it would be remotely competitive. I think the best a Democrat could do now is like 56-44 - a 12 point loss, and it would take a total bum like John Sullivan, who was my ex-congressman until he was upset in a primary by Jim Bridenstine, to get that close. Here's hoping someone like J.J. Dossett does give it a shot though.

Candidates who might give this seat a shot -

State Rep. David Brumbaugh (R) - one of the leading Republicans in the house, and a business guy. Seems like the obvious frontrunner.

State Senator Nathan Dahm (R) - he's run and lost before for this seat, but now he has a little more weight behind him as a State Senator instead of some has been Tea Party guy. He'll probably challenge Brumbaugh as being a part of the ESTABLISHMENT.

State Senator Dan Newberry (R) - abortion nut, went bankrupt for attention, almost certainly the guy to get Trump support.

Businessman Tom Atkinson (R) - The most moderate Republican of this field - but still pretty god damn conservative - he's an oil rich guy who spent a lot lot lot of money to lose to Jim Bridenstine very badly (mostly because Bridenstine did that Ted Cruz thing where he takes annoying votes against corporate interests because it wasn't destructive enough). That being said, without someone of Bridenstine's good will and caliber I suspect there could be a very real chance he does at least not as terrible as he did against Bridenstine. Plus he's very rich.

State Senator J.J. Dossett (D) - Ex-Teacher, won a seat Democrats just don't win by 12 points in a special election, I'm fast tracking him to he's perfect and we need people like him. Sadly, not a chance a Democrat will win here.

Former State Senate Candidate John Waldron (D) - Also ex-teacher, and even better because he ran in my state senate district and I know just how awesome and great this guy is. Shame he lost this year, and shame he would get savaged if he ran here.

The other names seem like has-beens and losers:

Former Tulsa Mayor Dewey Bartlett (R) - lost this year in a surprise wipeout as he campaigned as the conservative candidate against Kid Mayor G.T. Bynum (also R). Hoped to get a high level Trump appointment. Failing that, Mr. Bartlett still wants something to do - I think he could run here. But he may be perceived as too moderate by the people who vote in Republican primaries - he'll be plagued by being a Mayor who, you know, has to sometimes actually work with Government.

Soon to be Former State Rep. Ken Walker (R) - My ex-state Rep., total loser, lost in a primary to a pro-education candidate. Could come back as a tea party savior.

Former State Senator Randy Brogdon (R) - Total wackjob. Seems like his job now is to run and lose in GOP primaries and to make people like Mary Fallin, James Lankford, and TW Shannon look sane. Almost certain to run if there's an opening. Almost certain to lose.

Former Tulsa Mayor Susan Savage (D) or Former Tulsa Mayor Kathy Taylor (D) - Sad! Not a chance of either running and not a chance of either winning!

[VPH]

It did (KS-04) for this spring.

Names I have heard:

GOP
Former US Rep. Todd Tiahrt (1994-2010)
State Treasurer Ron Estes
Trump Coalitions Director Alan Cobb
Fmr. State Senate President Susan Wagle
County Commissioner-Elect (and current state senator) Michael O'Donnell
Former US Rep. Tim Huelskamp (2010-2014, KS-1)

Democrats
State House Minority Leader Jim Ward
Former Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer (I think he'll run for governor in 2018)
Former State Treasurer Dennis McKinney
Attorney and 2016 nominee Dan Giroux
Defense Consultant Laura Lombard
Some dude and 2010, 2012, and 2016 candidate Robert Tillman

[beaver2.0]

VA-8.  I say Mark Levine gets the Democratic nomination.  He probably faces Charniele Herring and a few Arlington council people.  He is pretty much guaranteed a win in the general after that.

[Kingpoleon]

AR-3: Mark Martin, one of the Hutchinsons, or Matthew Pitsch.

[Bismarck]

IN-04 if Todd Rokita retires to run for senate or something I think Hendricks county commissioner Matt Whetstone would be his successor.

[LimoLiberal]

VA-8.  I say Mark Levine gets the Democratic nomination.  He probably faces Charniele Herring and a few Arlington council people.  He is pretty much guaranteed a win in the general after that.

Regarding: VA08
There's one independent on the Arlington co Board who won because of his opposition to huge projects like affordable housing and the infamous streetcar. Would be interesting if he won. He's about as conservative as Bill Nelson, so he could put up a fight. Even this year, the republican congressional candidate, ran more than 10 points ahead of Trump. Of course, trump is radioactive here, but who knows.

[Dancing with Myself]

NC-05?

No clue; wouldn't miss Virginia Foxx the least bit though. All of Forsyth county's in the district now which can help a strong Democrat but her opponent in 2016 was lazy and didn't try that hard.

[Dancing with Myself]

AR-3: Mark Martin, one of the Hutchinsons, or Matthew Pitsch.

Mark Martin would be an awesome congressman. One of the few good guys of Nascar.

[Figueira]

To answer my own question, I live in MA-01. I get the feeling that Democratic State Senator Eric Lesser is positioning himself for a Congressional run when Neal retires. He's young, he used to work for Obama, and he's been drawing attention to himself lately. He represents a moderate district but I don't know that he has any positions that are toxic to the left. Outgoing State Senator Ben Downing might be another option since he just retired at age thirty-six due to a belief in term limits, but he might have a hard time getting traction in the Springfield area that dominates the district. There's also some mayors like Dominic Sarno (Springfield) and Alex Morse (Holyoke). Maybe State Rep. Aaron Vega, but I doubt it. There's probably some other people I don't know about or forgot to mention.

I don't know if the Republicans would even run a candidate, but if they did, it wouldn't be anyone particularly relevant.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Very short time in Congress for Jason Lewis. But still, dems can only win MN-02 in a dem wave, and I don't see any on the horizon. So it would go to some other R. Hopefully someone more moderate.

[wjx987]

Live in FL-23, represented by DWS. Wouldn't miss her if she left.

Democrats: there's a lot of them.

-Tim Canova challenged DWS and did pretty well considering the demographics of the district and DWS' warchest. Could see him running again.

-State Reps Evan Jenne, Katie Edwards, Joe Geller, and Shevrin Jones all reside and represent parts of FL-23. Jones and Geller aren't that well known, while Edwards' centrism (she was endorsed by the NRA) could help her or hurt her, depending on her primary and general election opponent. Out of all of these Reps, Jenne seems to be the most likely here, as he is well entrenched and has made a name for himself as a negotiator and a real star around here. He's also the ranking member of the House's Commerce Committee.

-Nan Rich is pretty beloved here in Broward as a county commissioner, and was a former state rep and senator. Not to mention she was Crist's sole primary opponent for the gubernatorial nomination in 2014.

Republicans; They have a pretty small bench of candidates, it is South Florida after all.

-Joe Kaufman was 2016's Republican nominee and he did okay for running against DWS. It seems likely he could run again, as no local Republican bigwigs would likely give up their seats. The same goes for perennial candidate Marty Feigenbaum.

-The only bigwig who could run and have a chance at winning is State Senator Rene Garcia, who is fairly well known and represents Hialeah.

So in total, most likely to win the election? Probably Evan Jenne, Tim Canova, or Nan Rich.

[publicunofficial]

Very short time in Congress for Jason Lewis. But still, dems can only win MN-02 in a dem wave, and I don't see any on the horizon. So it would go to some other R. Hopefully someone more moderate.

...They just lost by 2% in a mild GOP year.