What if your House seat opened up?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Very short time in Congress for Jason Lewis. But still, dems can only win MN-02 in a dem wave, and I don't see any on the horizon. So it would go to some other R. Hopefully someone more moderate.

...They just lost by 2% in a mild GOP year.

Against someone who has questioned whether banning slavery was the right thing to do. The fact that the district went for HIM is quite telling. You need a wave year if you're a dem, and even then it's not guaranteed. In the YUGE Dem Wave of 2008, Obama won the district by just 3%. That's it.

[Torie]

If Faso packs it in after one term (highly unlikely), my guess is that George Amadore would win the Pub nomination, and with Teachout out of the way, after the disaster that was her campaign in 2016 for the seat, where she lost by a brutalizing 9.4 points (in a POTUS year to boot, when Dems upstate tend to do considerably better than in off year elections), her 2016 primary opponent, Will Yandik, would get the Dem nomination (and, also, he doesn't hold office, except as a town council member (the minuscule town of Livingston in Columbia County), and so would not be giving up some more juicy office to run in an uphill election, unlike some who would, like the County Executive of Ulster County, Mike Hein, who would have to give up something of note, and declined to run in 2016 even after being begged to do so by the Dem county party chairs in the CD). Then Amadore would win rather easily in the General Election, particularly in an off year election cycle, and given the popularity of Trumpism in the CD (NY-19).

Adendum: Oh, Amadore does not live in the district.

[jamestroll]

I live in UT-04.

If it opened up and it was at least a neutral year, it could be quite competitive. Doug Owens came within five during a leaning GOP year.

I will be moving to St Louis area soon. Unsure if I will be in MO-01 or MO-02

If MO-01 opened up, it would be interesting to see which Democrat would win that primary. GOP wouldn't stand a chance.

MO-02, eh, it has voted for Nixon and McCaskill in the past. It possibly voted for Koster and Kander. But I never crunched the numbers.  It goes solidly for GOP presidential candidates. Though current lines, was close-ish in 08, and Trump may have dropped a bit from Romney. Open seat in a heavy Dem year could be quite competitive. But neutral  year, it would go GOP.

Let me add candidates.

For Utah 04, in an open seat, Ben McAdams would be the best candidate. Perhaps even slightly favored outside a Republican wave year. District Attorney Sim Gill or Sheriff Jim Winder could also make a run for it. Winder is stronger on paper, but is not likely interested in running. Sim Gill, I could see wanting a promotion.

GOP Year= Likely GOP

Neutral Year= Lean GOP

Dem Year= Toss Up

For MO-01, there are a dozen or black state legislators who could run for the seat. Any Democrat would probably win the seat.

Any year would be solid Democratic.

MO-02, like I said, in an open seat with a Democratic wave year, it could be interesting. Would be funny if Kander or Koster tried to run for it. They could win, but the carpet bagging issue would be an issue. State Senator Scott Sifton, who won a competitive re-election bid in that district would be a great candidate. If he wants to move. With Wagner [likely] running for Senate, he may as well try. For Republicans there are hundreds, if not thousands, who could contest the seat. This seat strikes me as one that Democrats may get real excited about in a Democratic year with open seat but fall short.

GOP Year= Likely GOP

Neutral Year= Lean GOP

Dem Year= Toss up.

Of course, this all assumes open seats.

[Drew]

For WI-2, state Sen. Jon Erpenbach and Dane County executive Joe Parisi immediately come to mind if Mark Pocan retires.  I bet it would be Erpenbach over Someguy from the GOP.  Though Erpenbach is also up for reelection to the state Senate that year, so he'd have to decide.

[tallguy23]

CA-28th district: Adam Schiff.

It's a safe Dem seat so there would probably be a clusterf*** of LA politicos rushing for the seat. Former assemblyman Mike Gatto would be a strong frontrunner. Members of the West Hollywood City Council or maybe LA City Councilman Mitchell Englander would put up a strong challenge too.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Please don't make me think even more about the fact that State Senator Kris Jordan - last seen drunkenly threatening his wife with a gun and then being easily re-elected - will be my Congressman in two years.  It's upsetting enough already

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Illinois-18: I'm not really sure. We have a pair of young and fairly charismatic female Republican state reps in Springfield, but this is mostly a Peoria-based district and has historically been this as well.

State Sen. John Sullivan (D) represents possibly the most conservative part of this extremely conservative district, and he gets reelected over and over again despite the unpopularity of the Illinois Democrats downstate. If anyone could make this district competitive, it would be him. If Aaron Schock would have made it to 2016, it's possible Sullivan could have challenged him, I guess.

For as conservative as the district is, we usually pick fairly establishment Republicans, so I'd guess someone who's got some establishment ties, ties to Peoria and Caterpillar especially.

[MarkD]

MO-1.
In the Democratic primary this year, State Sen. Maria Chappelle-Nadal tried to challenge incumbent Congressman Lacy Clay. She ended up losing with 26.85% of the primary vote to Clay's 62.64%. But if Clay retired, I can't see any reason why she would not try again, nor can I think of anyone else who could enter the race and compete for her name recognition.
St. Louis Mayor Francis Slay is retiring next year, and I don't think he has any plans for a higher office.

[catographer]

Anna Eshoo of California's 18th district could realistically retire within 10 years. She's 74, been in Congress since 1993 (24 years). Who'd run to replace her? Well the perennial Republican who loses to her every year Richard Fox would run. As for Democrats, perhaps former assemblyman Rich Gordon (68), state senator Jerry Hill (69), current assemblyman Marc Berman (36), the person he beat in the general election Democrat Vicky Veekner (idk her age). Perhaps someone else, like people on local city councils that I've never heard of.

[Greedo punched first]

I live in CA-47, mostly made up of blue (red on the Atlas) Long Beach; but I live in the red (blue on the Atlas) neighborhood of West Garden Grove (which Trump won every precinct). I am a socially liberal moderate Republican/Libertarian type. What should I do to attract Long Beach voters? Should I run as a moderate George Pataki/Brian Sandoval Republican or a moderate Bill Weld Libertarian? Would I do poorly with the conservative electorate of West Garden Grove/northwesternmost precincts of Westminster (which are full of middle class and blue collar white voters) by being a social liberal?

[catographer]

Since your district is mostly Democrats, your best shot is as a Bill Weld type Libertarian. Trump voters will vote for you anyway if you're running against a Democrat.

[Crumpets]

Walkinshaw would obviously run again, and the left-wing would probably want to field a candidate to run against him. Maybe Jess Spear?

[Greedo punched first]

Since your district is mostly Democrats, your best shot is as a Bill Weld type Libertarian. Trump voters will vote for you anyway if you're running against a Democrat.

My district is very odd. It's mostly Democratic only because of Long Beach, which makes up over half the district's population. Because of this gerrymandering, Orange County voters in the district are disenfranchised. The much less populated Orange County side is heavily Republican. Long Beach does have a fair amount of Republicans in higher-income neighborhoods like Belmont Shore and the mostly white middle class Los Altos neighborhood. The conservative voters in West Garden Grove, Cypress, and Westminster would still vote for me even if I run as a Bill Weld moderate Republican/Libertarian? I literally did not see any campaign signs for Lowenthal on the Orange County side of the district, but saw a massive number of signs for Whallon. Orange County voters in the district vote against Lowenthal every election. Long Beach is the only reason Lowenthal even wins by wide margins. Without Long Beach, Lowenthal would lose to a Republican.

[MT Treasurer]

Well, it just did, unfortunately. I think Republicans are favored by quite a bit in the special election, though.

[Figueira]

Since your district is mostly Democrats, your best shot is as a Bill Weld type Libertarian. Trump voters will vote for you anyway if you're running against a Democrat.

My district is very odd. It's mostly Democratic only because of Long Beach, which makes up over half the district's population. Because of this gerrymandering, Orange County voters in the district are disenfranchised. The much less populated Orange County side is heavily Republican. Long Beach does have a fair amount of Republicans in higher-income neighborhoods like Belmont Shore and the mostly white middle class Los Altos neighborhood. The conservative voters in West Garden Grove, Cypress, and Westminster would still vote for me even if I run as a Bill Weld moderate Republican/Libertarian? I literally did not see any campaign signs for Lowenthal on the Orange County side of the district, but saw a massive number of signs for Whallon. Orange County voters in the district vote against Lowenthal every election. Long Beach is the only reason Lowenthal even wins by wide margins. Without Long Beach, Lowenthal would lose to a Republican.

I mean, Long Beach isn't going away. The district is D+8 and that's pre-Trump PVI. Also just because a district has a heterogeneous population does not mean it's "gerrymandered."

[Greedo punched first]

Since your district is mostly Democrats, your best shot is as a Bill Weld type Libertarian. Trump voters will vote for you anyway if you're running against a Democrat.

My district is very odd. It's mostly Democratic only because of Long Beach, which makes up over half the district's population. Because of this gerrymandering, Orange County voters in the district are disenfranchised. The much less populated Orange County side is heavily Republican. Long Beach does have a fair amount of Republicans in higher-income neighborhoods like Belmont Shore and the mostly white middle class Los Altos neighborhood. The conservative voters in West Garden Grove, Cypress, and Westminster would still vote for me even if I run as a Bill Weld moderate Republican/Libertarian? I literally did not see any campaign signs for Lowenthal on the Orange County side of the district, but saw a massive number of signs for Whallon. Orange County voters in the district vote against Lowenthal every election. Long Beach is the only reason Lowenthal even wins by wide margins. Without Long Beach, Lowenthal would lose to a Republican.

I mean, Long Beach isn't going away. The district is D+8 and that's pre-Trump PVI. Also just because a district has a heterogeneous population does not mean it's "gerrymandered."

It's not just heterogeneous, there is a clear geographic, county, and partisan divide between Long Beach and the Orange County side of the district. Long Beach voters have full control of the district. I feel my neighborhood (where Trump won every precinct) and neighboring cities are disenfranchised. Could 2020 redistricting make it more competitive by taking out parts of Long Beach? It's possible Long Beach goes away by being moved into another district with future redistricting. It's also possible my neighborhood gets moved into CA-48 after redistricting.

[Mr. Smith]

I could see Tony Thurmond give it a try should Barbara Lee retire, but I don't see that happening anytime soon.

[Kingpoleon]

If Faso packs it in after one term (highly unlikely), my guess is that George Amadore would win the Pub nomination, and with Teachout out of the way, after the disaster that was her campaign in 2016 for the seat, where she lost by a brutalizing 9.4 points (in a POTUS year to boot, when Dems upstate tend to do considerably better than in off year elections), her 2016 primary opponent, Will Yandik, would get the Dem nomination (and, also, he doesn't hold office, except as a town council member (the minuscule town of Livingston in Columbia County), and so would not be giving up some more juicy office to run in an uphill election, unlike some who would, like the County Executive of Ulster County, Mike Hein, who would have to give up something of note, and declined to run in 2016 even after being begged to do so by the Dem county party chairs in the CD). Then Amadore would win rather easily in the General Election, particularly in an off year election cycle, and given the popularity of Trumpism in the CD (NY-19).

Adendum: Oh, Amadore does not live in the district.

Kathleen Jimino could run, since she likely won't get a chance at anything else in New York. Pete Lopez, who withdrew this time, could run, as could Mrs. Gibson, Mrs. Faso, or one of Gibson's or Faso's Chiefs of Staff.

[Figueira]

Since your district is mostly Democrats, your best shot is as a Bill Weld type Libertarian. Trump voters will vote for you anyway if you're running against a Democrat.

My district is very odd. It's mostly Democratic only because of Long Beach, which makes up over half the district's population. Because of this gerrymandering, Orange County voters in the district are disenfranchised. The much less populated Orange County side is heavily Republican. Long Beach does have a fair amount of Republicans in higher-income neighborhoods like Belmont Shore and the mostly white middle class Los Altos neighborhood. The conservative voters in West Garden Grove, Cypress, and Westminster would still vote for me even if I run as a Bill Weld moderate Republican/Libertarian? I literally did not see any campaign signs for Lowenthal on the Orange County side of the district, but saw a massive number of signs for Whallon. Orange County voters in the district vote against Lowenthal every election. Long Beach is the only reason Lowenthal even wins by wide margins. Without Long Beach, Lowenthal would lose to a Republican.

I mean, Long Beach isn't going away. The district is D+8 and that's pre-Trump PVI. Also just because a district has a heterogeneous population does not mean it's "gerrymandered."

It's not just heterogeneous, there is a clear geographic, county, and partisan divide between Long Beach and the Orange County side of the district. Long Beach voters have full control of the district. I feel my neighborhood (where Trump won every precinct) and neighboring cities are disenfranchised. Could 2020 redistricting make it more competitive by taking out parts of Long Beach? It's possible Long Beach goes away by being moved into another district with future redistricting. It's also possible my neighborhood gets moved into CA-48 after redistricting.

The nature of single-member districts is always going to disenfranchise people, sadly.

[catographer]

Multi-member districts ftw

[Leinad]

Hmmm...Bob Barr might have another go, but he's getting up there in age. My state Rep, Michael Caldwell, isn't even 30 yet, but I think he might have a future.

Multi-member districts ftw

We need those BAD.

[Miles]

VA -10

State Sen. Jill Vogel (R) may consider dropping her LG run, where she's not guaranteed to be the nominee. As she represents the western region of the district, geographically State Rep. Tag Greason (R) may be better as he represents a swingier part of Loudoun County.

Ken Cuccinelli also represented a seat in this district when he was in the legislature, but he'd probably wouldn't fly in a Trump midterm.

AG Mark Herring would be the Democrats' safest bet. A decent backup would be Jennifer Wexton (D), who holds Herring's old seat in the State Senate.

[HAnnA MArin County]

MO-08

If Jason Smith retired, I'd imagine some deplorable state representative or senator would run: probably state representatives Kathy Swan of Cape Girardeau, Donna Lichtenegger of Jackson, Holly Rehder of Sikeston, state senator Wayne Wallingford of Cape, Doug Libla of Dexter, possibly DINO turned Republican Linda Black of the Farmington/Desloge/Park Hills area (she was the one who won election as a Democrat in 2012 and then immediately the next day switched parties once Republicans got their supermajorities, citing of course Jesus for her party switch). Clint Tracy, the current presiding commissioner of Cape Girardeau County, always jumps at the opportunity for a higher-paying office (he was elected to the state House and served for one term and then resigned and ran for presiding commissioner because it pays twice as much as what state legislators make. He's pond scum.)

No idea on the Democratic side, probably some random yokel (probably a Sanders supporter) who's just bored and has nothing else to do. Perhaps a local/county elected official.

[socaldem]

CA-28th district: Adam Schiff.

It's a safe Dem seat so there would probably be a clusterf*** of LA politicos rushing for the seat. Former assemblyman Mike Gatto would be a strong frontrunner. Members of the West Hollywood City Council or maybe LA City Councilman Mitchell Englander would put up a strong challenge too.

Mitch Englander is a GOPer and from the North Valley which doesn't even touch the district. So that makes no sense... do you mean LA City Councilman Mitch O'Farrell?

Before Becerra was selected for AG, I was actually thinking that Adam Schiff would have been a good candidate for the position... I think Schiff should, perhaps, instead seek a leadership position in the House.

In addition to Mike Gatto (who is attempting a statewide bid this year), here are some potential candidates:

State Assemblyman Laura Friedman
WeHo Councilwoman Lindsay Horvath
LA City Councilman Mitch O'Farrell
LA City Councilman Paul Krekorian

[socaldem]

Since your district is mostly Democrats, your best shot is as a Bill Weld type Libertarian. Trump voters will vote for you anyway if you're running against a Democrat.

My district is very odd. It's mostly Democratic only because of Long Beach, which makes up over half the district's population. Because of this gerrymandering, Orange County voters in the district are disenfranchised. The much less populated Orange County side is heavily Republican. Long Beach does have a fair amount of Republicans in higher-income neighborhoods like Belmont Shore and the mostly white middle class Los Altos neighborhood. The conservative voters in West Garden Grove, Cypress, and Westminster would still vote for me even if I run as a Bill Weld moderate Republican/Libertarian? I literally did not see any campaign signs for Lowenthal on the Orange County side of the district, but saw a massive number of signs for Whallon. Orange County voters in the district vote against Lowenthal every election. Long Beach is the only reason Lowenthal even wins by wide margins. Without Long Beach, Lowenthal would lose to a Republican.

I mean, Long Beach isn't going away. The district is D+8 and that's pre-Trump PVI. Also just because a district has a heterogeneous population does not mean it's "gerrymandered."

It's not just heterogeneous, there is a clear geographic, county, and partisan divide between Long Beach and the Orange County side of the district. Long Beach voters have full control of the district. I feel my neighborhood (where Trump won every precinct) and neighboring cities are disenfranchised. Could 2020 redistricting make it more competitive by taking out parts of Long Beach? It's possible Long Beach goes away by being moved into another district with future redistricting. It's also possible my neighborhood gets moved into CA-48 after redistricting.

Your information is incorrect.

Lowenthal won both the LA and Orange County portions of the district.

                   Lowenthal*       Whallon
                   DEM                 REP
Los Angeles    102,693          44,120
Orange             52,066          43,989
District Totals 154,759          88,109
 Percent               63.7%      36.3%

The district unifies a sizeable Vietnamese-American community in Westminster and Garden Grove with a large Cambodian diaspora in Long Beach. Both communities fled to America in the aftermath of the Vietnam War...

The Orange County portion of the district is quite ethnically diverse and the hispanic/Asian-American population there is likely to move more Dem as a result of the Trumpification of the GOP.