Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

Wow, today there's a flurry of federal polls (all showing virtually the same thing) ...

OGM poll for the "Kurier" newspaper:



65% of Austrians also do not believe that the ideas outlined in the recent speeches from Kern, Strache etc. will be passed into laws this year.

Only 31% of Austrians think that parliament will produce meaningful laws this year.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/mehrheit-glaubt-nicht-dass-politik-reformplaene-auch-umsetzen-wird/242.245.176

[Tender Branson]

In 2 weeks, Graz (the second-largest city in Austria) will have their municipal elections.

My prediction:

30% ÖVP (-4%)
26% FPÖ (+12%)
18% KPÖ (-2%)
10% Greens (-2%)
  9% SPÖ (-6%)
  5% NEOS (+5%)
  1% Pirates (-2%)
  1% Others (-1%)

[ApatheticAustrian]

would be quite lower austria-ish if the general right gets an absolute majority inside of an austrian "mega city".

[Tender Branson]

would be quite lower austria-ish if the general right gets an absolute majority inside of an austrian "mega city".

"general right" is relative: Graz voted for VdB with almost 70%, yet the "right" parties would get 60% in my scenario ...

The ÖVP and KPÖ will struggle to hold their results IMO, but I guess the KPÖ has a better chance to actually hold their great 2012 result. The ÖVP is impacted by the downward trend federally, while the KPÖ has a solid ground game.

The FPÖ is of course expected to rise and double compared with 2012, Hofer got 33% there.

The SPÖ is headed for an epic disaster (~10% or lower). They have not managed to rebuild over the last years and bleed voters to the FPÖ and KPÖ.

The Greens have a new leader in the city and a crappy, lukewarm campaign - which means they will drop too.

The Pirates will be kicked out of the city parliament and NEOS will get in.

[Tender Branson]

From the Research Affairs/Ö24 poll this weekend:

"Which proposal for an asylum seeker/refugee cap do you favour for 2017 ?"



FPÖ: Reject all refugees and asylum seekers this year and deport those that are already here
ÖVP: Cut the cap to 17.000 this year
Current SPÖ-ÖVP government policy: 35.000 requests for this year
Green Party policy: no cap at all

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/chronik/Mehrheit-fuer-Asyl-Stopp/266401150

[ApatheticAustrian]

regarding this alternatives, the ÖVP proposal flies quite high.

[Tender Branson]

Early elections in 2017 are more and more likely ...

Looks like Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) has set an ultimatum to the ÖVP:

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/neuwahlen-in-der-luft-schlechte-stimmung-im-ministerrat/242.788.503

Apparently, the atmosphere in today's government meeting was really bad (1 cabinet member from the ÖVP even said new elections are just a matter of time).

Kern wants to see results from the ÖVP until Friday, according to the report. Currently, SPÖVP are working on an "update" of the government's work schedule for this year, but compromises are hard to get - with both parties launching intrigues against each other every day.

It's likely that if there are new elections, it will be Chancellor Kern who calls them ...

[Tender Branson]

According to the "Presse", the SPÖ has an internal poll which has them in first place (and ahead of the FPÖ) for the first time in years ...

http://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5159157/Platzt-die-Koalition

[ApatheticAustrian]

that numbers would be quite...strange.

even a 3-4 point difference would be quite successful for the SPÖ....

[Tender Branson]

Frankly, I wouldn't mind early elections this year (which is pretty lame anyway with no other major elections planned here).

And there's also a poll on the "Presse" website, in which 70% say they don't mind them either ...

[rob in cal]

  So what are the main hang ups in the coalition causing the problems?

[ApatheticAustrian]

  So what are the main hang ups in the coalition causing the problems?

- show effect

- schelling and kern both trying their masculinity act

- mitterlehner's weakness

[Tender Branson]

  So what are the main hang ups in the coalition causing the problems?

There are so many hangups that are blocking them from getting to work, you don't even know where to start ...

Basically, if one party has a proposal the other one automatically shoots it down or presents an alternative proposal.

Then there are the constant intrigues, the lack of trust and the attempts to hurt the other party.

Just recently, the ÖVP let the media know that the SPÖ's chief strategist (an Israeli, called Tal Silberstein) has an arrest warrant in Romania for corruption.

After which the SPÖ decided to take a closer look into Sebastian Kurz's private life to look for things that could hurt him in case he takes over the ÖVP ahead of federal elections.

After which the ÖVP hired a German expert to look into Chancellor Kern's university work for possible plagiarism (after a few days they announced that his work "appears to be flawless") ...

And so on.

Summed up, their political "work" is basically standstill right now. And Kern has portrayed himself as a "doer" in recent months, so if SPÖVP do not deliver in the next months it would be better if Kern pulls the plug on the coalition and calls new elections. At least he could then present his "Plan A" to the public more closely during the election campaign, rather than dig along as a "do-nothing Chancellor" with the ÖVP. This could hurt him even more in the eyes of the public going forward.

[Tender Branson]

Another description of the SPÖVP coalition right now would be that they are similar to a couple who are only married anymore on paper and to look good for outsiders, but when night falls and the curtains are down they start to strangle each other to death in their home. Just that all outsiders already know this as well ...

Anyway, one of these 2 parties badly needs to spend some time in opposition. Badly.

[rob in cal]

  Tender, I was actually thinking about the marriage analogy as well.  Sounds pretty dysfunctional. Perhaps for that reason most Austrians won't be too upset about going to the polls again so soon after the Pres election.
   It will be interesting to see if Kurz takes on a big role soon if elections are coming up. He seems like someone who could win votes for the OVP from both FPO and SPO.

[Tender Branson]

Kern when setting the ultimatum to the ÖVP today:

"If there are no results until Friday, this government is not needed anymore. My patience is over."

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/kanzler-kerns-geduld-mit-der-oevp-ist-am-ende/242.820.754

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ is pretty happy about the bad climate within SPÖVP right now and of course wants early elections.

Said Norbert Hofer today:

"If the government doesn't shift into high gears soon, there have to be new elections. At best before the summer holidays to enable a government that can start working in the fall to end the standstill in Austria. SPÖVP shouldn't talk and argue, but act. The patience of Austrians is coming to an end."

http://orf.at/stories/2376496/2376495

[DavidB.]

What is Hofer's future within the FPÖ?

[Klartext89]

Any news regarding the "majority bonus" for the biggest party? If there's a snap general election this year, is it more possible to beheld with or without these bonus?

I'm sure that the SPÖVP coalition will break in the next week(s) and we get that election. SPÖ can only win: By now, Kern is popular, Strache not Hofer will be FPÖ leader, ÖVP will not burn Kurz. This could be different in 2018. With Kern not being "new" anymore, Hofer as FPÖ leader and Kurz as ÖVP leader, it could be a blowout for SPÖ.

Nevertheless, if FPÖ can't convert the current situation into a 33%+ first place finish, then they don't deserve to govern. It's like playing Soccer with one goal up and the other team being one man down. If you can't win, you're uterly stupid.

[Tender Branson]

What is Hofer's future within the FPÖ?

Possibly a future cabinet member in a government with the FPÖ in it.

Hofer would probably become Minister for the Environment or something, as he's the environmental speaker of the FPÖ (and his policies mirror the Greens, as I have posted earlier. For example he favours the expansion of renewable energy in Austria, solar panel subsidies for home owners, tough regulations and consumer protection standards for food and e-mobility measures such as a Austrian-wide grid for e-stations to charge cars).

[Tender Branson]

Any news regarding the "majority bonus" for the biggest party? If there's a snap general election this year, is it more possible to beheld with or without these bonus?

I'm sure that the SPÖVP coalition will break in the next week(s) and we get that election. SPÖ can only win: By now, Kern is popular, Strache not Hofer will be FPÖ leader, ÖVP will not burn Kurz. This could be different in 2018. With Kern not being "new" anymore, Hofer as FPÖ leader and Kurz as ÖVP leader, it could be a blowout for SPÖ.

Nevertheless, if FPÖ can't convert the current situation into a 33%+ first place finish, then they don't deserve to govern. It's like playing Soccer with one goal up and the other team being one man down. If you can't win, you're uterly stupid.

The "Majority Bonus" is only part of Kern's "Plan A", which he outlined in his speech.

For it to become law, the constitution has to be changed with a 2/3 majority.

That means one of FPÖ or Greens has to vote with the government, but both have said they want to keep the current PR system instead of a FPTP system.

[Klartext89]

Any news regarding the "majority bonus" for the biggest party? If there's a snap general election this year, is it more possible to beheld with or without these bonus?

I'm sure that the SPÖVP coalition will break in the next week(s) and we get that election. SPÖ can only win: By now, Kern is popular, Strache not Hofer will be FPÖ leader, ÖVP will not burn Kurz. This could be different in 2018. With Kern not being "new" anymore, Hofer as FPÖ leader and Kurz as ÖVP leader, it could be a blowout for SPÖ.

Nevertheless, if FPÖ can't convert the current situation into a 33%+ first place finish, then they don't deserve to govern. It's like playing Soccer with one goal up and the other team being one man down. If you can't win, you're uterly stupid.

The "Majority Bonus" is only part of Kern's "Plan A", which he outlined in his speech.

For it to become law, the constitution has to be changed with a 2/3 majority.

That means one of FPÖ or Greens has to vote with the government, but both have said they want to keep the current PR system instead of a FPTP system.

Thank you, good to know.

[Pandaguineapig]

Would ovp be willing to be part of an FPO government? they have been in coalition in the past but with the ovp leading

[Tender Branson]

Would ovp be willing to be part of an FPO government? they have been in coalition in the past but with the ovp leading

Actually, it's slightly more likely now that the next federal government will be FPÖ/SPÖ or SPÖ/FPÖ, listening to recent comments.

Kern had a town-hall style discussion round on PULS 4 TV on Monday, in which he said that the only parties "which have an interest to start working for the people in Austria are the SPÖ and the FPÖ". Obviously, this was a huge broadside directed against the ÖVP, who likes to block everything. But I could see a coalition like this, even though part of the SPÖ would revolt.

[Tender Branson]

There was a "crisis" government meeting today, which was then suspended after a while. Apparently, Kern and Mitterlehner will continue to talk with each other in the evening, but the signs are pointing to an end of this coalition on Friday.

Ex-President Heinz Fischer has called on Kern/Mitterlehner to talk with President Van der Bellen tomorrow or on Friday, arguing that Van der Bellen could mediate between the two parties and avoid early elections. Van der Bellen will be sworn in as President tomorrow.

Traditionally, each government offers their resignation to the new President after the swearing-in ceremony. Traditionally, the President then declines the offer of resignation.

It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow in this poisoned coalition climate ...