IL-Gov. 2018 Megathread

[new_patomic]

NPR: Rauner, If Asked, Would Deploy Illinois National Guard To Mexican Border

Capitol Fax: Poll finds strong support for gun dealer licensing in swing districts

Things are going great in Rauner-land this week.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This moves the race from Lean D to Likely D.

[Atlas Force]

Didn’t know where else to put this, but should we brace for a Trump pardon of Blago?

https://twitter.com/pblagojevich/status/986024121690714112

[Green Line]

I feel bad for Blago and his family.  It's ridiculous that someone so harmless can be locked up for this long while repeat gun offenders walk the streets.  He's already been barred from holding IL office for life.  What he did is small potatoes compared to what most Chicago politicians do every day - let him go.

[Mr. Illini]

I feel bad for Blago and his family.  It's ridiculous that someone so harmless can be locked up for this long while repeat gun offenders walk the streets.  He's already been barred from holding IL office for life.  What he did is small potatoes compared to what most Chicago politicians do every day - let him go.

It's absolutely true that many have gone free while doing much worse than Blago and I do agree that the length of the prison sentence seems excessive, but I really have no problem with him sitting in prison if it helps deter others from corruption. This feeling is emphasized by how much of a joke he has always treated the ordeal - I've never really seen any sort of regret or realization of wrongdoing from him.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

I feel bad for Blago and his family.  It's ridiculous that someone so harmless can be locked up for this long while repeat gun offenders walk the streets.  He's already been barred from holding IL office for life.  What he did is small potatoes compared to what most Chicago politicians do every day - let him go.

It's absolutely true that many have gone free while doing much worse than Blago and I do agree that the length of the prison sentence seems excessive, but I really have no problem with him sitting in prison if it helps deter others from corruption. This feeling is emphasized by how much of a joke he has always treated the ordeal - I've never really seen any sort of regret or realization of wrongdoing from him.

I'm not defending Blago, but what's the justification for McDonnell and Menendez going free, while Blago doesn't? Admittedly, I'm not tuned into the nuances of the cases, but they all seem fairly clear-cut corruption cases to me.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Didn’t know where else to put this, but should we brace for a Drumpf pardon of Blago?

https://twitter.com/pblagojevich/status/986024121690714112

This is probably possible. Blagojevich was on 'The Celebrity Apprentice'...for some reason. And Trump loves pardoning corrupt people from last decade.

[Gass3268]

Rauner's chances just dropped even further (if that was possible...):

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[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Rauner's chances just dropped even further (if that was possible...):

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At this point it seems like an open question if Rauner can even win as many counties as Alan Keyes did in the 2004 Senate race.

[MAINEiac4434]

Rauner's chances just dropped even further (if that was possible...):

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At this point it seems like an open question if Rauner can even win as many counties as Alan Keyes did in the 2004 Senate race.

It's not that bad...yet. Keyes won only 10 counties and only a quarter of the vote.

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

I feel bad for Blago and his family.  It's ridiculous that someone so harmless can be locked up for this long while repeat gun offenders walk the streets.  He's already been barred from holding IL office for life.  What he did is small potatoes compared to what most Chicago politicians do every day - let him go.

It's absolutely true that many have gone free while doing much worse than Blago and I do agree that the length of the prison sentence seems excessive, but I really have no problem with him sitting in prison if it helps deter others from corruption. This feeling is emphasized by how much of a joke he has always treated the ordeal - I've never really seen any sort of regret or realization of wrongdoing from him.

I'm not defending Blago, but what's the justification for McDonnell and Menendez going free, while Blago doesn't? Admittedly, I'm not tuned into the nuances of the cases, but they all seem fairly clear-cut corruption cases to me.

My opinion has always been make Blago work in a toll booth for the rest of his life / until his debt to the state is paid off, while he can go home to take care of his kids at night.

[President Johnson]

Rauner's chances just dropped even further (if that was possible...):

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Is he even getting on the ballot? From what I've heard and read about Illinois is that it's tough to get there. Even the Green Party failed a couple of times. I also assume the guy doesn't have much name rec. and not a ton of money.

[Blair]

I feel bad for Blago and his family.  It's ridiculous that someone so harmless can be locked up for this long while repeat gun offenders walk the streets.  He's already been barred from holding IL office for life.  What he did is small potatoes compared to what most Chicago politicians do every day - let him go.

It's absolutely true that many have gone free while doing much worse than Blago and I do agree that the length of the prison sentence seems excessive, but I really have no problem with him sitting in prison if it helps deter others from corruption. This feeling is emphasized by how much of a joke he has always treated the ordeal - I've never really seen any sort of regret or realization of wrongdoing from him.

I'm not defending Blago, but what's the justification for McDonnell and Menendez going free, while Blago doesn't? Admittedly, I'm not tuned into the nuances of the cases, but they all seem fairly clear-cut corruption cases to me.

I think the Blago case was him saying 'I've got a Senate Seat, bidding starts now' where as the other two just involved gifts being giving to politicians with the expectation that they'd get something back in return

[MAINEiac4434]

Rauner's chances just dropped even further (if that was possible...):

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Is he even getting on the ballot? From what I've heard and read about Illinois is that it's tough to get there. Even the Green Party failed a couple of times. I also assume the guy doesn't have much name rec. and not a ton of money.

The Greens don’t even have a candidate this year, and the party has lost ballot access.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Rauner's chances just dropped even further (if that was possible...):

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At this point it seems like an open question if Rauner can even win as many counties as Alan Keyes did in the 2004 Senate race.

Rauner would win at least 85-90 counties no matter what (there are 102 total).

Unless there's some sort of landslide, Dem wins are probably confined to Cook, the collar counties, Winnebago, Peoria, Champaign, McLean, Madison, St. Clair, and Alexander counties, and winning all those would probably require either a significant Republican vote split or winning nearly 60% of the vote. Rauner, for his faults, is from Illinois unlike Keyes, JB is no Obama, and the state has become much more polarized since 2004.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

I feel bad for Blago and his family.  It's ridiculous that someone so harmless can be locked up for this long while repeat gun offenders walk the streets.  He's already been barred from holding IL office for life.  What he did is small potatoes compared to what most Chicago politicians do every day - let him go.

It's absolutely true that many have gone free while doing much worse than Blago and I do agree that the length of the prison sentence seems excessive, but I really have no problem with him sitting in prison if it helps deter others from corruption. This feeling is emphasized by how much of a joke he has always treated the ordeal - I've never really seen any sort of regret or realization of wrongdoing from him.

I'm not defending Blago, but what's the justification for McDonnell and Menendez going free, while Blago doesn't? Admittedly, I'm not tuned into the nuances of the cases, but they all seem fairly clear-cut corruption cases to me.

I think the Blago case was him saying 'I've got a Senate Seat, bidding starts now' where as the other two just involved gifts being giving to politicians with the expectation that they'd get something back in return

Right, but practically, what's the difference? At a base level, it's still a public official using that office for private benefit, no? All were essentially saying, "I have X and I will use my position to give you X in exchange for Y." X just so happens to be a Senate seat for Blago, but I don't see that being different enough to justify him being in jail, while the Bribery Bobs are free.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Pritzker is not going to reach Obama 2012/Clinton 2016/Duckworth 2016 margin of victory levels.

His ceiling is probably at the Durbin 2014/Kerry 2004 margin of victory level, honestly.

[Mr. Illini]

Rauner's chances just dropped even further (if that was possible...):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Source

At this point it seems like an open question if Rauner can even win as many counties as Alan Keyes did in the 2004 Senate race.

Rauner would win at least 85-90 counties no matter what (there are 102 total).

Unless there's some sort of landslide, Dem wins are probably confined to Cook, the collar counties, Winnebago, Peoria, Champaign, McLean, Madison, St. Clair, and Alexander counties, and winning all those would probably require either a significant Republican vote split or winning nearly 60% of the vote. Rauner, for his faults, is from Illinois unlike Keyes, JB is no Obama, and the state has become much more polarized since 2004.

Putnam, Fulton, Knox, Jackson, Calhoun, and Gallatin are far from out of the question. Durbin won all of them in 2014, and although Durbin is surely more popular downstate than Pritzker, I think that an 11-12 point win still puts them in play, which is probably the ceiling for Pritzker.

[Maxwell]

Pritzker is not going to reach Obama 2012/Clinton 2016/Duckworth 2016 margin of victory levels.

His ceiling is probably at the Durbin 2014/Kerry 2004 margin of victory level, honestly.

Not sure why that is - Rauner is remarkably, shockingly unpopular. His approval ratings are very low and he seems to be trailing by 15 points in polls regularly. GOP enthusiasm is just not there for Rauner.

I'm not saying Pritzker is going to win big because I like Pritzker, but because Rauner is one of the worst GOP governors in the country and the GOP is largely abandoning him.

[Oryxslayer]

My map, on time as delivered, but behind MCI's. I did break down the data on the tails better, and did do the map when more precincts were in, so the dem total is higher. *shrug* Compared to the previous primaries from earlier. Will create some 'fun' maps next

With this talk of counties, I'm just going to quote my primary maps of 2016, 2014, and 2018. Yes, there are some regional biases like dems overpreforming downstate, and Republicans in the collars and NW, but the Dems are certainly setting up for more then 11 counties. We're just used to Red governor maps since the last two were rather close.

[Donerail]

Is he even getting on the ballot? From what I've heard and read about Illinois is that it's tough to get there. Even the Green Party failed a couple of times. I also assume the guy doesn't have much name rec. and not a ton of money.

Open question, but it looks like he'll have money -- IUOE Local 150 has chipped in a decent amount of change. There are complicated rules surrounding who can pass petitions for third-party candidates, but the unions will get it done.

[_]

well this is just ooof

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Rauner's chances just dropped even further (if that was possible...):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Source

At this point it seems like an open question if Rauner can even win as many counties as Alan Keyes did in the 2004 Senate race.

Rauner would win at least 85-90 counties no matter what (there are 102 total).

Unless there's some sort of landslide, Dem wins are probably confined to Cook, the collar counties, Winnebago, Peoria, Champaign, McLean, Madison, St. Clair, and Alexander counties, and winning all those would probably require either a significant Republican vote split or winning nearly 60% of the vote. Rauner, for his faults, is from Illinois unlike Keyes, JB is no Obama, and the state has become much more polarized since 2004.

Putnam, Fulton, Knox, Jackson, Calhoun, and Gallatin are far from out of the question. Durbin won all of them in 2014, and although Durbin is surely more popular downstate than Pritzker, I think that an 11-12 point win still puts them in play, which is probably the ceiling for Pritzker.

I'll agree on Gallatin and especially Fulton and throw in Rock Island, which I forgot the first time. I'm more skeptical about the others.

Dick Durbin is from downstate and actually acknowledges the existence of all 102 counties, and I am assuming JB will spend almost all his campaign in about 8 of them in the northeast part of the state. I still think voting for a governor with (D-Chicago) after his name is just going to be a hard sell for most downstaters, not because of the "D" necessarily but because of the "Chicago".

[JGibson]

Update on this race: Democratic Gubernatorial nominee JB Pritzker (D) has received the endorsement of fellow challenger and State Senator Daniel Biss (D) for the November general against incumbent Bruce Rauner (R).


I voted for Biss in the primary, and I am all-in on Pritzker in the general this November. Let's get Rauner out of there!

https://twitter.com/JBPritzker/status/996050405393084416

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DanielBiss/status/996050112907563008

The people of Bermuda appreciate JB Pritzker's contribution to their country.