IL-Gov. 2018 Megathread

[new_patomic]

What was the dynamic of the 2014 Republican primary?  Rauner got crushed in many downstate areas in 2014 by Dillard that Rauner beat Ives this year.  And Dillard was a Dupage legislator just as Ives was.  Was Dillard perceived as being to the left of  Rauner?

I'm not totally sure, exactly.

I want to say a lot of the downstate support for Dillard was sort of just by default. Dillard was relatively well known thanks to past bids and the other candidates including failed 2010 nominee Brady and Rutherford, who had just got accused of sexual misconduct by a male aide. And there wasn't much grass roots movement behind Rauner who was some rich outsider from the Chicago area, and thus didn't connect with a lot of the state.

On the other hand come 2018 Rauner is now the incumbent Governor and is running an anti-Madigan/Springfield campaign. While Ives, a little known state senator from the suburbs, pretty much spent all of her time and money in the Chicago area. So downstate probably came down to name recognition, more than anything.  

[BundouYMB]

Dillard was supported by the teacher's unions and opposed pension reform. That was what the primary was centered around. The teacher's unions spent huge to support Dillard (who raised very little money of his own) and ran a big GOTV operation for him too.

[Nyvin]

Sabato moved Illinois gov to "Lean Dem"

[Coolface Sock #42069]

How prominent will the name "Rod Blagojevich" be in this race? Will Rauner continue his focus on tying Pritzker to Michael Madigan, or will he switch to Rod?

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

How prominent will the name "Rod Blagojevich" be in this race? Will Rauner continue his focus on tying Pritzker to Michael Madigan, or will he switch to Rod?

Why not both? There is definitely a lot of overlap in the target audiences there, but there are definitely some people who will be motivated against Madigan but not Blago, and the other way around. I don't know at what point Dems start voting for Rs against Madigan, but I really can't see Rauner running ads tying Madigan to JB depressing his own turnout or energizing reliable D voters.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

How prominent will the name "Rod Blagojevich" be in this race? Will Rauner continue his focus on tying Pritzker to Michael Madigan, or will he switch to Rod?

Why not both? There is definitely a lot of overlap in the target audiences there, but there are definitely some people who will be motivated against Madigan but not Blago, and the other way around. I don't know at what point Dems start voting for Rs against Madigan, but I really can't see Rauner running ads tying Madigan to JB depressing his own turnout or energizing reliable D voters.

I just wondered if voters would have an amnesia factor with Blago since he was removed from office way back in 2010.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump phenomenon polarizing politics is overwhelming Rauner compassionate conservatism in the state like IL, NM, ME, CA. That voting for Hillary.  And Pritzker hasn't been investigated like Rod Blagojevich.

[Bojack Horseman]

The Democratic primary should have been entitled "The Three Stooges of the Prairie State" because that's what they were. Given the alternatives, I'm glad Pritzker won. We all know Kennedy was a clueless fool, but Biss was a Republican in sheep's clothing. Combine the fact that he would have ended pensions, term-limited lawmakers, and handed control of the legislature over to the Republicans by ending gerrymandering, I'm shocked that so many Democrats on this site lined up behind him.

[muon2]

The Democratic primary should have been entitled "The Three Stooges of the Prairie State" because that's what they were. Given the alternatives, I'm glad Pritzker won. We all know Kennedy was a clueless fool, but Biss was a Republican in sheep's clothing. Combine the fact that he would have ended pensions, term-limited lawmakers, and handed control of the legislature over to the Republicans by ending gerrymandering, I'm shocked that so many Democrats on this site lined up behind him.

I've looked at a number of neutral maps for the IL legislature. None of them hand to GA to the Pubs, though they would have an outside chance in wave year like 1994 or 2010. Even then they would give it up two years later as they did in1996.

[Bojack Horseman]

The Democratic primary should have been entitled "The Three Stooges of the Prairie State" because that's what they were. Given the alternatives, I'm glad Pritzker won. We all know Kennedy was a clueless fool, but Biss was a Republican in sheep's clothing. Combine the fact that he would have ended pensions, term-limited lawmakers, and handed control of the legislature over to the Republicans by ending gerrymandering, I'm shocked that so many Democrats on this site lined up behind him.

I've looked at a number of neutral maps for the IL legislature. None of them hand to GA to the Pubs, though they would have an outside chance in wave year like 1994 or 2010. Even then they would give it up two years later as they did in1996.

The Democrats have already lost a bunch of seats because the Republicans just scream  “MADIGAN!!!1!!!1!1” endlessly, just as how Democrats hold only one Congressional seat outside Chicago. One would figure that would happen in the legislature too if the districts were drawn impartially.

[muon2]

The Democratic primary should have been entitled "The Three Stooges of the Prairie State" because that's what they were. Given the alternatives, I'm glad Pritzker won. We all know Kennedy was a clueless fool, but Biss was a Republican in sheep's clothing. Combine the fact that he would have ended pensions, term-limited lawmakers, and handed control of the legislature over to the Republicans by ending gerrymandering, I'm shocked that so many Democrats on this site lined up behind him.

I've looked at a number of neutral maps for the IL legislature. None of them hand to GA to the Pubs, though they would have an outside chance in wave year like 1994 or 2010. Even then they would give it up two years later as they did in1996.

The Democrats have already lost a bunch of seats because the Republicans just scream  “MADIGAN!!!1!!!1!1” endlessly, just as how Democrats hold only one Congressional seat outside Chicago. One would figure that would happen in the legislature too if the districts were drawn impartially.

Downstate makes up less than a third of the state population, and at the scale of legislative districts there a number of urban centers that will produce Dem seats (Rockford, Rock Island, Peoria, Champaign, and metro St Louis). That leaves the Pubs needing a lot of suburban seats, which they have a hard time getting without gerrymanders. Cook alone is 40% of the state, and the Pubs wouldn't get many seats there even with gerrymanders. The Pub path to a majority is steep with or without a campaign against Madigan.

[Virginiá]

The Democrats have already lost a bunch of seats because the Republicans just scream  “MADIGAN!!!1!!!1!1” endlessly, just as how Democrats hold only one Congressional seat outside Chicago. One would figure that would happen in the legislature too if the districts were drawn impartially.

I'm just going to shamelessly put out a thread I made on Illinois legislative targets for this cycle:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=278843.0

TL;DR is that I think Democrats are primed to make a lot of pickups this year, particularly after seeing the suburban bloodbath in Virginia and the surge of Democratic support from suburban areas of other specials since (like Alabama and PA-18). Clinton really opened a lot of potential targets in the collar counties.

[muon2]

The Democrats have already lost a bunch of seats because the Republicans just scream  “MADIGAN!!!1!!!1!1” endlessly, just as how Democrats hold only one Congressional seat outside Chicago. One would figure that would happen in the legislature too if the districts were drawn impartially.

I'm just going to shamelessly put out a thread I made on Illinois legislative targets for this cycle:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=278843.0

TL;DR is that I think Democrats are primed to make a lot of pickups this year, particularly after seeing the suburban bloodbath in Virginia and the surge of Democratic support from suburban areas of other specials since (like Alabama and PA-18). Clinton really opened a lot of potential targets in the collar counties.

It's not that Clinton opened up targets for 2018, it's that Trump opened them by being Trump. His style iritates a lot of traditional suburban Pubs, and it showed in 2016.

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/DanielBiss/status/982273552748433411
Biss Endorses Pritzker and is holding a event tomorrow to discuss Money in politics
any chance Biss is setting himself up for a run in 2020 for Durbins seat if he retires or something else?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, definately.

[_]

Biss would get crushed by Cheri Bustos

[_]

Biss would get crushed by Cheri Bustos

Yeah. Is there anyone who could even conceivably beat her in the primary?

Lisa Madigan is the only possibility, but it'd be a clash of the Madigan Machine vs the Obama/Durbin National Dem Machine, it'd be the best primary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cheri Bustos is the establishment frontrunner, but choses not to run for anything, Bliss is the alternative.

[_]

Cheri Bustos is the establishment frontrunner, but choses not to run for anything, Bliss is the alternative.

Biss, and no way she doesn't run if Durbin retires, he's been grooming her to take his place.

[MAINEiac4434]

Chuy should launch a suicide run to clear the way for Carlos Rosa to take his rightful seat in Congress, IMO.

And hey, if Biss runs, he and Bustos could cannibalize each other and allow Chuy to slide into the Senate.

[Donerail]

Biss is presumably positioning himself to replace Jan Schakowsky. Senate will be Bustos or Madigan in all likelihood, but watch Krishnamoorthi.

[Mr. Illini]

What was the dynamic of the 2014 Republican primary?  Rauner got crushed in many downstate areas in 2014 by Dillard that Rauner beat Ives this year.  And Dillard was a Dupage legislator just as Ives was.  Was Dillard perceived as being to the left of  Rauner?

I'm not totally sure, exactly.

I want to say a lot of the downstate support for Dillard was sort of just by default. Dillard was relatively well known thanks to past bids and the other candidates including failed 2010 nominee Brady and Rutherford, who had just got accused of sexual misconduct by a male aide. And there wasn't much grass roots movement behind Rauner who was some rich outsider from the Chicago area, and thus didn't connect with a lot of the state.

On the other hand come 2018 Rauner is now the incumbent Governor and is running an anti-Madigan/Springfield campaign. While Ives, a little known state senator from the suburbs, pretty much spent all of her time and money in the Chicago area. So downstate probably came down to name recognition, more than anything.  

IIRC, Dillard also ran pretty solidly on a pro-choice platform, as Rauner was pro-choice for most of his life (probably still is personally).

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Chuy should launch a suicide run to clear the way for Carlos Rosa to take his rightful seat in Congress, IMO.

And hey, if Biss runs, he and Bustos could cannibalize each other and allow Chuy to slide into the Senate.

I could get used to Senator Garcia. The only thing that'd improve this scenario (Sen Garcia, Rep Ramirez-Rosa) is for Mayor Pawar to somehow come into being.

[MAINEiac4434]

Chuy should launch a suicide run to clear the way for Carlos Rosa to take his rightful seat in Congress, IMO.

And hey, if Biss runs, he and Bustos could cannibalize each other and allow Chuy to slide into the Senate.

I could get used to Senator Garcia. The only thing that'd improve this scenario (Sen Garcia, Rep Ramirez-Rosa) is for Mayor Pawar to somehow come into being.

It's Illinois, I have no hope in any of that happening. But it's nice to have dreams.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Chuy should launch a suicide run to clear the way for Carlos Rosa to take his rightful seat in Congress, IMO.

And hey, if Biss runs, he and Bustos could cannibalize each other and allow Chuy to slide into the Senate.

I could get used to Senator Garcia. The only thing that'd improve this scenario (Sen Garcia, Rep Ramirez-Rosa) is for Mayor Pawar to somehow come into being.

It's Illinois, I have no hope in any of that happening. But it's nice to have dreams.

It's all I have left.