IL-Gov. 2018 Megathread

[Green Line]

Residents are pouring out of Illinois.  The state's lost more people than any other state this decade.  So naturally, the solution to a shrinking tax base is to ratchet up the rates for those that are left...

Dissolve Illinois!

[RINO Tom]

I'm sure Governor Rauner's veto of the largest tax increase in Illinois history will somehow hurt him in his re-election bid.

"Illinois families don't deserve to have more of the hard-earned money taken from them when the legislature has done little to restore confidence in government or grow jobs. Illinois families deserve more jobs, property tax relief and term limits. But tonight they got more of the same," Rauner said, in part, in his statement.

Illinois continues to dig its own grave.

Doesn't Illinois have some pretty serious debt and unfunded liabilities issues? Granted I don't know the entire situation behind this tax increase but in IL's current situation, it's not hard to say it is justified if the new taxes are are least mostly put towards those problems.

Sure, but this is where ideology will get into it: IL is losing residents and businesses BECAUSE it's an economically stagnant state with some of the highest taxes in the country, and rather than crack down on spending (I read one time IL has the highest paid public employees in the nation, and they still constantly demand more, LOL) or the ABSURD teacher's pensions, the only answer is ever to raise taxes.  Never mind that the tax increase will hit Illinoisans' personal incomes or that it is literally going to be met with zero reduction in spending, it's also exacerbating (in my humble opinion) the state's biggest problem: businesses are leaving for greener pastures, and our politicians' reaction is all too often to show them the finger and increase taxes on the ones who remain loyal to the state.  Caterpillar has been headquartered in Peoria for decades, and after years of threatening to leave for Indiana or another more business-friendly state, what was Illinois' solution?  Have an economically thriving Chicago suburb bribe them to move there instead, providing a mini-death blow to Peoria.  It's just a messed up state, and the people who could do anything about it don't care as long as their friends are taken care of or their immediate community is doing okay, and those folks outnumber the ones who want any sort of change.  You can disagree with the methods to fix it, but it's just heartbreaking to watch my home state crumble and for anyone in their right mind to think that this tax increase alone will not be hugely detrimental, let alone actually help.

[Virginiá]

Right, well I think it's fair to say Illinois has been managed pretty terribly for a long time now. It's practically criminal to let the pension issue get out of control like that. This is also partly why I wish all states had some sort of initiative process, so citizen groups could go around politicians who are simply too weak and/or incompetent to make the right choices. In the end, it's almost surely going to fall on Democrats to fix this, since they control the legislature. Although tbh I can't help but feel like they are just going to keep kicking the can down the road until the house collapses around them.

My comment was mostly based on me not understanding how you can solve the budget/pension issue without raising taxes, but at the same time, IL's economic situation probably does need lower taxes (in addition to other changes) to help encourage more growth. How do you solve this? They are completely opposed to each other. With this, it suggests that maybe IL will have to make budget cuts and raise taxes until they get the situation under control, even if that hurts the state for a while. That is the price everyone pays for years of obscenely bad management.

[muon2]

IL, along with NY and AZ, has the strictest pension language in its constitution:

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IL copied from NY and AZ from IL. AZ's attempt at modest reform was rejected by its SC and the ILSC followed suit when IL tried a more major set of reforms a couple years later. A 2012 attempt to slightly soften the language in the ILConst could not get the necessary 60%. Nonetheless there are statutory changes that do not run afoul of the ILConst and some have even passed this year. The hang up to get to complete agreement is whether or not to treat Chicago's teacher pensions differently from everyone else. The other parts that have passed would save the state about a half billion next year and in future years, but they are tied to the budget itself which relies on a tax hike to balance it.

Privately the vast majority of officials recognize that the state cannot be operated on 32 G$ of revenue which is the current amount. The current spending rate, in part dictated by judges during the impasse, is 39 G$. The offered budget is $36.1 G$ with a tax hike to bring revenue up to 36.5 G$, and the difference can be directed towards the 15 G$ bill backlog.

The outflow of tax base in IL is not primarily in response to the income tax, but from the property tax which is the highest in the nation. The neighboring states swapped property tax for other taxes two decades ago, but IL resisted the change. Now the effort to merely freeze property taxes is herculean; the Dems have agreed to the Gov's demand for a four year freeze, but with certain exemptions for payments outside the control of local governments.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/the-latest-illinois-governor-vetoes-tax-rise-36b-budget/2017/07/04/4d12444e-60ec-11e7-80a2-8c226031ac3f_story.html?utm_term=.f34794836411

The Illinois Senate voted to override Rauner's budget veto... this has to hurt Rauner, but does it also hurt any Republicans who voted for the override?

[Ebsy]

Rauner's problem is that his name is going to be on the ballot, and not Mike Madigan's, so even if Illinois voters blame both equally for the last 3 years, they will only have one clear outlet to express their rage.

[kelestian]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/the-latest-illinois-governor-vetoes-tax-rise-36b-budget/2017/07/04/4d12444e-60ec-11e7-80a2-8c226031ac3f_story.html?utm_term=.f34794836411


The Illinois Senate voted to override Rauner's budget veto... this has to hurt Rauner, but does it also hurt any Republicans who voted for the override?

Only one republican voted for override, state senator Dale Righter

[Sir Mohamed]

Rauner's problem is that his name is going to be on the ballot, and not Mike Madigan's, so even if Illinois voters blame both equally for the last 3 years, they will only have one clear outlet to express their rage.

I never understood why Madigan is not running for governor? Not that I would like it (at least by knowing what I know about the dude).

[Donerail]

Rauner's problem is that his name is going to be on the ballot, and not Mike Madigan's, so even if Illinois voters blame both equally for the last 3 years, they will only have one clear outlet to express their rage.

I never understood why Madigan is not running for governor? Not that I would like it (at least by knowing what I know about the dude).

He would probably have less power as governor, and would also lose.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Republicans in the House have got to be worried about the coming primary challenges should they support this veto override.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Whoever wins the Illinois governorship in 2018, will have a difficult job. It's probably one of the toughest states to be a governor in America today.

It is going to be a nasty, bitter, expensive race that could see low turnout as the state is in such bad shape. Rauner, Quinn, and Blagojevich are partly to blame.

I mean, you can make a case for partially blaming Rauner and his unwillingness to raise taxes, but I don't know what more Pat Quinn could have done. Rod Blagojevich had already screwed the state's pension system beyond repair before Quinn took office.

[RINO Tom]

Republicans in the House have got to be worried about the coming primary challenges should they support this veto override.

Not usually one to support primaries from the right, but God damn.  Watching that live broadcast today was sickening.

[henster]

Illinois NEEDS a graduated income tax, flat tax supporters should look at IL and understand the limitations of it. Next Governor needs make it a priority for a progressive tax and fix the pension mess.

[muon2]

Republicans in the House have got to be worried about the coming primary challenges should they support this veto override.

Not usually one to support primaries from the right, but God damn.  Watching that live broadcast today was sickening.

If you read my post from July 3, how would you close the gap between expenses and revenue? What was passed cut roughly 3 G$ from current spending and raised 5 G$ in taxes. Cutting much more than 3 G$ either violates judicial orders or cut school funding causing property taxes to rise.

[muon2]

Illinois NEEDS a graduated income tax, flat tax supporters should look at IL and understand the limitations of it. Next Governor needs make it a priority for a progressive tax and fix the pension mess.

As I posted above, the pensions can be changed going forward and this budget package did that. However the ILConst has very strict pension language and the ILSC has ruled retroractive pension changes are unconstitutional. The 2012 attempt at modest changes to the pension language in the constitution did not get enough votes.

I would argue that the problem is not the flat income tax, but the lack of a broad-based sales tax. IL has the narrowest range of taxable items of any state with a sales tax.

[Green Line]

RIP Illinois, you had a good run.  Muon killed you.  Cold blooded murder.

[RINO Tom]

Republicans in the House have got to be worried about the coming primary challenges should they support this veto override.

Not usually one to support primaries from the right, but God damn.  Watching that live broadcast today was sickening.

If you read my post from July 3, how would you close the gap between expenses and revenue? What was passed cut roughly 3 G$ from current spending and raised 5 G$ in taxes. Cutting much more than 3 G$ either violates judicial orders or cut school funding causing property taxes to rise.

muon, you are much wiser on this issue than I am, and if you honestly think this is the right approach, I'm inclined to believe you, especially since I know for a fact you deal with the Illinois Democratic caucus, and frankly you and your party members are the only hope in saving that state right now.  There is too much entrenched power on the other side of the aisle for any reform.  However, whether it's property tax, income tax, sales tax or something else, Illinois taxpayers have been given the spiel time and time again that in order to reduce our debt problem and *fix the state* (or at least take a measly first step in that direction), we need to raise revenues, and you just gave the argument that if we don't raise revenues, things will get worse.  IL citizens, very understandably, are infuriated that THIS is the compromise we must make.  We must further hurt our tax base so that we can *pass a budget*, but we can't further go without a budget to protect our tax base?  It just worsens the impression that the state legislature is so entrenched in "business as usual" and is totally oblivious to people's actual impressions of Illinois and what's wrong with it.

I get that in your position, you actually have to come up with the answers, and that's gotta be tough.  The obvious first step, at least to me, would be to change the absolutely asinine pension language in our state's constitution, but it sounds like that will be pretty hard.  I guess my question is, with the passing of this budget, what will change next year or in two years?  Rauner has somehow become a bad guy for being elected to finally crack down on the teacher's unions and all of the other tax-and-spend nonsense that has gotten IL into this mess, but a lot of people are starting to wonder if it's just so broken that it's not worth putting a bandaid on.  Why not take the attitude that we're taxed enough, and nothing should be added to that burden until spending is SERIOUSLY reformed and the state's economy improved?  Honestly asking.  Surely, as a state Republican, you'd prefer that approach, all things being equal.

[muon2]

Republicans in the House have got to be worried about the coming primary challenges should they support this veto override.

Not usually one to support primaries from the right, but God damn.  Watching that live broadcast today was sickening.

If you read my post from July 3, how would you close the gap between expenses and revenue? What was passed cut roughly 3 G$ from current spending and raised 5 G$ in taxes. Cutting much more than 3 G$ either violates judicial orders or cut school funding causing property taxes to rise.

muon, you are much wiser on this issue than I am, and if you honestly think this is the right approach, I'm inclined to believe you, especially since I know for a fact you deal with the Illinois Democratic caucus, and frankly you and your party members are the only hope in saving that state right now.  There is too much entrenched power on the other side of the aisle for any reform.  However, whether it's property tax, income tax, sales tax or something else, Illinois taxpayers have been given the spiel time and time again that in order to reduce our debt problem and *fix the state* (or at least take a measly first step in that direction), we need to raise revenues, and you just gave the argument that if we don't raise revenues, things will get worse.  IL citizens, very understandably, are infuriated that THIS is the compromise we must make.  We must further hurt our tax base so that we can *pass a budget*, but we can't further go without a budget to protect our tax base?  It just worsens the impression that the state legislature is so entrenched in "business as usual" and is totally oblivious to people's actual impressions of Illinois and what's wrong with it.

I get that in your position, you actually have to come up with the answers, and that's gotta be tough.  The obvious first step, at least to me, would be to change the absolutely asinine pension language in our state's constitution, but it sounds like that will be pretty hard.  I guess my question is, with the passing of this budget, what will change next year or in two years?  Rauner has somehow become a bad guy for being elected to finally crack down on the teacher's unions and all of the other tax-and-spend nonsense that has gotten IL into this mess, but a lot of people are starting to wonder if it's just so broken that it's not worth putting a bandaid on.  Why not take the attitude that we're taxed enough, and nothing should be added to that burden until spending is SERIOUSLY reformed and the state's economy improved?  Honestly asking.  Surely, as a state Republican, you'd prefer that approach, all things being equal.

Your comments are well taken and the Gov is right that the state needs additional reforms to attract more business to IL. I agree that we need spending reforms. For example the legislature passed a significant reform to streamline the state procurement process, but as significant as that is it only saves 200-300 M$ out of the over 7 G$ gap. The enacted budget cuts 5% across the board and 10% for the universities (part of which is offset by the procurement changes).

The big three cost drivers are payments to Medicaid, K-12 schools, and pensions. Cutting deeply into Medicaid runs up against federal law. Cutting deeply into K-12 funding pushes the costs to the local districts which in most cases means an increase in property tax to make up the difference. The enacted budget reduces pension costs by charging local districts for high-paid employees and creating a new plan for new employees. That reduces the actuarial liability for the state, but the Constitution bars changes to current employees or retirees.

Over all the budget cuts almost 3 G$, but that still leaves a hole that must be filled somehow. Plus IL has to have enough extra to start paying off the backlog of bills that have piled up over the last two years.

[RINO Tom]

Thanks for the response.  There are clearly a lot of obstacles, and it's just sad to see.  According to the Census, there were like 3 counties in the whole state that didn't lose population in the whole state, and only one was Downstate (Champaign), between 2015 and 2016.  I just wonder if there will ever reach a point where state Democrats will decide it's more important to stop the bleeding than to "not budge."  I know that sounds hackish putting all of the blame there, but they're the ones blocking attempts at serious reform to how this state has been run for the last several years, pure and simple.

P.S.  Still sad I didn't see your message to meet up in time before the Iowa caucuses last year!

P.P.S.  You weren't one of the guys giving the fiery speeches in Springfield yesterday on the live feed, were ya??

[muon2]

Thanks for the response.  There are clearly a lot of obstacles, and it's just sad to see.  According to the Census, there were like 3 counties in the whole state that didn't lose population in the whole state, and only one was Downstate (Champaign), between 2015 and 2016.  I just wonder if there will ever reach a point where state Democrats will decide it's more important to stop the bleeding than to "not budge."  I know that sounds hackish putting all of the blame there, but they're the ones blocking attempts at serious reform to how this state has been run for the last several years, pure and simple.

P.S.  Still sad I didn't see your message to meet up in time before the Iowa caucuses last year!

P.P.S.  You weren't one of the guys giving the fiery speeches in Springfield yesterday on the live feed, were ya??

I'm not prone to fiery speeches. I tend more to facts and figures. You might have even heard a speech like that yesterday.

[Donerail]

kennedy apparently told a bunch of old people "if you don't vote for me you'll die alone"

[Mike Thick]

kennedy apparently told a bunch of old people "if you don't vote for me you'll die alone"

Whaaaaaaaaaaa

[_]

kennedy apparently told a bunch of old people "if you don't vote for me you'll die alone"

If real congratulations Nominee Pritzker!

[Kingpoleon]

kennedy apparently told a bunch of old people "if you don't vote for me you'll die alone"

Link to an article/video, please.

[Donerail]

kennedy apparently told a bunch of old people "if you don't vote for me you'll die alone"

Link to an article/video, please.

friend of a friend was there