2018 Gubernatorial Rankings

[KingSweden]

Pretty reasonable. I think this is where I'm at

[PragmaticPopulist]

You're being awfully generous to Democrats for being a blue avatar. I still think OK and VT are Likely R (Scott might even be safe), MD is Lean R in most circles, and MI and NV are pure tossups.

[Canis]

Changing ME to a tossup if Collins Runs likely R if she doesn't likely D

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

[SamTilden2020]

Does the green in AK represent a Gov Walker lead, or a tossup?

[HST1948]

Toss Ups
1. Maine: Toss up for now-- if Collins throws her hat in AND wins the GOP primary, I think this becomes safe R. If not, I think this becomes a Tilt/ Lean D race unless we see a redux of 2010/2014 with a really strong left leaning independent in the race.

2. Michigan: I think that the GOP got lucky and has a strong candidate in AG Bill Schuette, however, I do think Snyder and Trump's unpopularity in the state, along with the flint crisis will help the Dems here. Gretchen Whitmer is a formidable candidate and I think this race becomes lean D with her. If Geoffrey Fieger or Abdul El-Sayed get the Dem nod, it becomes a toss up/lean R race.

3. Wisconsin: For a long time I had the rated as lean/likely R and just moved it to toss up/tilt R. I think there is a very good chance Scott Walker wins re-election, however, the Democrats have formidable candidates in Tony Evers, the Wisconsin State Superintendent of Public Instruction and State Senator Kathleen Vinehout. Given Trump's current approval ratings and polls recently showing Walker underwater, I moved this to toss up.

4. Florida: As with MI, I think the GOP got lucky here with a very strong candidate in Adam Putnam. The Democrats also have some candidates who have potential to be strong candidates, but are relatively unproven, including Tallahassee mayor,  Andrew Gillum, former Congresswoman Gwen Graham, and (who I like to call the wild card) John Morgan, a personal injury lawyer and medical marijuana advocate. I think the rating of this race will largely depend on the outcome of the Dem primary and how the Democrat defines themselves and the race. This is one I could see slipping easily away from the Dems as a result of a divided primary, poor state party structure, and a unified/strong GOP.

5. Alaska: I will be honest that I don't know much about this race, but it seems that Walker has middling approvals and an unstable base of supporters, thus my rating as toss up. We will see if Walker is able to pull a redux of 2014.

6. Nevada: It seems that this is another race where the GOP likely got a top recruit in Adam Laxalt, the Nevada Attorney General. On the Dem side, the likely nominee is Steve Sisolak, Chair of the Clark County Commission, also a decent recruit. Although Nevada seems to have taken a turn to the left lately, it still has shown a strong propensity to elect the GOP state wide (i.e. Heller, Sandoval). Given Laxalt's name ID and position, I certainly would not count him out. Sisolak, however, has proven to be a formidable fundraiser, and given the leftward tilt of the state as of recent and an expensive Senate race that the Dem's are sure to be heavily investing in, I think he has a good chance to reclaim the governor's mansion for the Dems.

Other Notable Races
1. Minnesota: Likely D-- This is a race that the Dem's have gotten lucky in as they have not just 1, but multiple top tier candidates including Congressman Tim Walz, St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman, and potentially Lori Swanson, the Minnesota Attorney General. All three of these candidates are top tier. Out of these, Tim Walz would likely be the strongest, having represented a rural part of the state (MN-01), having a miliatary background, and having earned the endorsement of multiple key figures in MN politics including Walter Mondale, R.T. Rybak, Colin Peterson, and the son of Paul Wellstone. However, Lori Swanson is well regarded and a very popular AG who would be a strong nominee and Chris Coleman has proven to be a popular and effective mayor in St. Paul.  On the other hand the GOP hasn't been able to come up with a top tier candidate and seems to have settled on Jeff Johnson, the Hennepin County Commissioner and losing nominee for governor in 2014. Now, there obviously is still time for someone else to declare (i.e. Tim Pawlenty or his wife) on the GOP side who could change the dynamics of this race.

2. Illinois: Tilt D for now-- this is a race that has been painful to watch as a Democrat. It seems as though every Dem in the primary has either shot themselves in the foot or stuck their foot in their mouth with the exception of Pritzker, who is far from the perfect candidate. All that being said, Rauner is still a weak incumbent in a state with a massive budget crisis (whether that's his fault or not is an issue separate from electoral discussions). In addition, Pritzker will be able to match Rauner dollar for dollar in the general election. Given these factors, plus the solid blue status if IL in a Trump midterm, I have this race as tilt D.

3. Colorado: Although I don't think that Representative Jared Polis is the strongest candidate that the Dems could find for this race, I do think that he is a formidable candidate, is able to self fund, and proven campaigner/fundraiser. On the GOP side no top-tier candidates have emerged yet. Given this and the leftward trend of CO politics recently, I have this as tilt D for now, which could obviously change if we see a new GOP candidate emerge.

More Updates To Come

[Heisenberg]

You're being awfully generous to Democrats for being a blue avatar. I still think OK and VT are Likely R (Scott might even be safe), MD is Lean R in most circles, and MI and NV are pure tossups.

Governor races are harder to predict than Senate races, and seem to be far more prone to "wild" swings. I'm also NOT one to be too optimistic in ratings.

OK: Can be prone to VERY wild swings. See also: The recent special elections.

MD: A lot can change. Also, unlike Baker and Scott in MA and VT (both states are also FAR more friendly to Rockefeller Republican governors), he has embraced certain aspects of Trumpism (like the travel ban, withdrawal from Paris Accords).

NV: GOP has had control here since 1998, and the state's demographics are changing, and the D machine/ground game is stronger than the R one.

MI: Schuette is boring as hell and insanely overrated. I wouldn't vote for him in the primary if I lived there, and if he won the primary, I'd support a third party candidate in the general. Michigan also has a VERY long streak of alternating between the two parties for Governor, I expect the next two governors to continue that.

VT: Scott has to share the ballot with Bernie. It won't doom him, and he starts out favored, but that will be more problematic than many think. Hardcore Bernie Bros aren't going to split their tickets.

Does the green in AK represent a Gov Walker lead, or a tossup?

I have it as a tossup (for now).

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Toss Ups
1. Maine: Toss up for now-- if Collins throws her hat in AND wins the GOP primary, I think this becomes safe R. If not, I think this becomes a Tilt/ Lean D race unless we see a redux of 2010/2014 with a really strong left leaning independent in the race.

2. Michigan: I think that the GOP got lucky and has a strong candidate in AG Bill Schuette, however, I do think Snyder and Trump's unpopularity in the state, along with the flint crisis will help the Dems here. Gretchen Whitmer is a formidable candidate and I think this race becomes lean D with her. If Geoffrey Fieger or Abdul El-Sayed get the Dem nod, it becomes a toss up/lean R race.

3. Wisconsin: For a long time I had the rated as lean/likely R and just moved it to toss up/tilt R. I think there is a very good chance Scott Walker wins re-election, however, the Democrats have formidable candidates in Tony Evers, the Wisconsin State Superintendent of Public Instruction and State Senator Kathleen Vinehout. Given Trump's current approval ratings and polls recently showing Walker underwater, I moved this to toss up.

4. Florida: As with MI, I think the GOP got lucky here with a very strong candidate in Adam Putnam. The Democrats also have some candidates who have potential to be strong candidates, but are relatively unproven, including Tallahassee mayor,  Andrew Gillum, former Congresswoman Gwen Graham, and (who I like to call the wild card) John Morgan, a personal injury lawyer and medical marijuana advocate. I think the rating of this race will largely depend on the outcome of the Dem primary and how the Democrat defines themselves and the race. This is one I could see slipping easily away from the Dems as a result of a divided primary, poor state party structure, and a unified/strong GOP.

5. Alaska: I will be honest that I don't know much about this race, but it seems that Walker has middling approvals and an unstable base of supporters, thus my rating as toss up. We will see if Walker is able to pull a redux of 2014.

6. Nevada: It seems that this is another race where the GOP likely got a top recruit in Adam Laxalt, the Nevada Attorney General. On the Dem side, the likely nominee is Steve Sisolak, Chair of the Clark County Commission, also a decent recruit. Although Nevada seems to have taken a turn to the left lately, it still has shown a strong propensity to elect the GOP state wide (i.e. Heller, Sandoval). Given Laxalt's name ID and position, I certainly would not count him out. Sisolak, however, has proven to be a formidable fundraiser, and given the leftward tilt of the state as of recent and an expensive Senate race that the Dem's are sure to be heavily investing in, I think he has a good chance to reclaim the governor's mansion for the Dems.

Other Notable Races
1. Minnesota: Likely D-- This is a race that the Dem's have gotten lucky in as they have not just 1, but multiple top tier candidates including Congressman Tim Walz, St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman, and potentially Lori Swanson, the Minnesota Attorney General. All three of these candidates are top tier. Out of these, Tim Walz would likely be the strongest, having represented a rural part of the state (MN-01), having a miliatary background, and having earned the endorsement of multiple key figures in MN politics including Walter Mondale, R.T. Rybak, Colin Peterson, and the son of Paul Wellstone. However, Lori Swanson is well regarded and a very popular AG who would be a strong nominee and Chris Coleman has proven to be a popular and effective mayor in St. Paul.  On the other hand the GOP hasn't been able to come up with a top tier candidate and seems to have settled on Jeff Johnson, the Hennepin County Commissioner and losing nominee for governor in 2014. Now, there obviously is still time for someone else to declare (i.e. Tim Pawlenty or his wife) on the GOP side who could change the dynamics of this race.

2. Illinois: Tilt D for now-- this is a race that has been painful to watch as a Democrat. It seems as though every Dem in the primary has either shot themselves in the foot or stuck their foot in their mouth with the exception of Pritzker, who is far from the perfect candidate. All that being said, Rauner is still a weak incumbent in a state with a massive budget crisis (whether that's his fault or not is an issue separate from electoral discussions). In addition, Pritzker will be able to match Rauner dollar for dollar in the general election. Given these factors, plus the solid blue status if IL in a Trump midterm, I have this race as tilt D.

3. Colorado: Although I don't think that Representative Jared Polis is the strongest candidate that the Dems could find for this race, I do think that he is a formidable candidate, is able to self fund, and proven campaigner/fundraiser. On the GOP side no top-tier candidates have emerged yet. Given this and the leftward trend of CO politics recently, I have this as tilt D for now, which could obviously change if we see a new GOP candidate emerge.

More Updates To Come

On Colorado, Walker Stapleton is in the race and is a very solid recruit. I still believe you can justify a Tilt or Lean D rating based on other factors, but if the only reason you have it at Tilt or Lean D is "who does the gop have?", then you should change it given Stapleton's presence in the race.

[Rjjr77]

You're being awfully generous to Democrats for being a blue avatar. I still think OK and VT are Likely R (Scott might even be safe), MD is Lean R in most circles, and MI and NV are pure tossups.

Governor races are harder to predict than Senate races, and seem to be far more prone to "wild" swings. I'm also NOT one to be too optimistic in ratings.

OK: Can be prone to VERY wild swings. See also: The recent special elections.

MD: A lot can change. Also, unlike Baker and Scott in MA and VT (both states are also FAR more friendly to Rockefeller Republican governors), he has embraced certain aspects of Trumpism (like the travel ban, withdrawal from Paris Accords).

NV: GOP has had control here since 1998, and the state's demographics are changing, and the D machine/ground game is stronger than the R one.

MI: Schuette is boring as hell and insanely overrated. I wouldn't vote for him in the primary if I lived there, and if he won the primary, I'd support a third party candidate in the general. Michigan also has a VERY long streak of alternating between the two parties for Governor, I expect the next two governors to continue that.

VT: Scott has to share the ballot with Bernie. It won't doom him, and he starts out favored, but that will be more problematic than many think. Hardcore Bernie Bros aren't going to split their tickets.

Does the green in AK represent a Gov Walker lead, or a tossup?

I have it as a tossup (for now).

that sounds like every michigan governor in history. MI loves boring governors.

[PragmaticPopulist]

You're being awfully generous to Democrats for being a blue avatar. I still think OK and VT are Likely R (Scott might even be safe), MD is Lean R in most circles, and MI and NV are pure tossups.

Governor races are harder to predict than Senate races, and seem to be far more prone to "wild" swings. I'm also NOT one to be too optimistic in ratings.

OK: Can be prone to VERY wild swings. See also: The recent special elections.

MD: A lot can change. Also, unlike Baker and Scott in MA and VT (both states are also FAR more friendly to Rockefeller Republican governors), he has embraced certain aspects of Trumpism (like the travel ban, withdrawal from Paris Accords).

NV: GOP has had control here since 1998, and the state's demographics are changing, and the D machine/ground game is stronger than the R one.

MI: Schuette is boring as hell and insanely overrated. I wouldn't vote for him in the primary if I lived there, and if he won the primary, I'd support a third party candidate in the general. Michigan also has a VERY long streak of alternating between the two parties for Governor, I expect the next two governors to continue that.

VT: Scott has to share the ballot with Bernie. It won't doom him, and he starts out favored, but that will be more problematic than many think. Hardcore Bernie Bros aren't going to split their tickets.

And of course you have NH as Leans D. Sununu might be too conservative for NH, but Ds don't seem to be very interested in challenging him. While it would be stupid not to challenge him considering all the special election results there recently, I think he's favored.

[Heisenberg]

^Or more strategically, to take Sununu out of the running in a 2020 or 2022 Senate race.

I think he's more interested in running in 2020, since that was his brother's old seat and would be against the woman who beat him. Maybe it's just me, but if I had a relative who served in the Senate, I would want THAT seat, not the other.

[Strudelcutie4427]

[_]

This but AK CO are tossups and RI is Lean D

[Xing]

Since Collins isn't running, I feel more confident about rating ME Lean D.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

First change in a while: IL moves from Lean D to Likely D

Safe D (2): OR, HI
Likely D (5): CA, NY, CT, RI, IL (D+1)
Lean D (6): CO, MN, PA, MI (D+2), ME (D+3), NM (D+4)
Toss-Up (7): NV, IA, WI, OH, NH, FL, AK
Lean R (4) : GA, MD, VT, KS
Likely R (6): MA, SC, TN, SD, OK, AZ
Safe R (6): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL

[Xing]

ID: Likely R -> Safe R - Not sure why I had this as only Likely R, obviously Democrats won't win this.

IA: Likely R -> Lean R - It seems like Democrats are rebounding the most in the Midwest, which makes this seem more vulnerable for Republicans than before.

NE: Likely R -> Safe R - See Idaho

RI: Likely D -> Lean D - Raimondo's unpopularity might be a factor here.

WI: Lean R -> Toss-Up - This forum has done a 180 on Scott Walker, going from thinking he's unbeatable to thinking he's finished. Obviously neither is true, but the recent results from the special election have to have made him at least a little bit nervous.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

states to watch AK, WI, NH, OH, MD, AZ, KS and Iowa

25-30 seats for Dems

[Xing]

Safe D (4): CA, OR, NY, HI
Likely D (4): CT, CO, IL (D+1), NM (D+2)
Lean D (5): NH (D+3), NV (D+4), MN, PA, RI
Toss-Up (5): FL, AK, MI, MD, ME
Lean R (4) : KS, OK, VT, WI
Likely R (9): AZ, GA, ID, IA, MA, NE, TN, OH, WY
Safe R (5): TX, AR, AL, SC, SD

IL: Likely D -> Safe D
NM: Likely D -> Safe D
CO: Likely D -> Safe D
NH: Lean D -> Likely D
PA: Lean D -> Likely D
MN: Lean D -> Likely D
WI: Lean R -> Tossup
IA: Likely R -> Lean R
OH: Likely R -> Tossup
GA: Likely R -> Lean R
AZ: Likely R -> Lean R

RI: Lean D -> Tossup

Safe D (7): CA, OR, NY, HI, CO, IL (D+1), NM (D+2)
Likely D (4): CT, NH (D+3), PA, MN
Lean D (1): NV (D+4),
Toss-Up (: FL, AK, MI, MD, ME, RI, WI, OH
Lean R (6) : KS, OK, VT, GA, AZ, IA
Likely R (5): ID, MA, NE, TN, WY
Safe R (5): TX, AR, AL, SC, SD

It's interesting how post-2016, your predictions have generally been much more D-friendly than mine I'm curious why you believe CT is Likely D while RI is a Toss-Up. While I do think Raimondo is potentially vulnerable, Malloy is much more unpopular, and will probably drag down the Democratic candidate to an extent.

[Canis]

Id likely R?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Alabama: Safe R
Alaska: Tossup
Arizona: Lean R
Arkansas: Safe R
California: Safe D
Colorado: Likely D
Connecticut: Tossup
Florida: Tossup
Georgia: Lean R
Hawaii: Safe D
Idaho: Safe R
Illinois: Tossup
Iowa: Likely R
Kansas: Lean R
Maine: Tossup
Maryland: Lean R
Massachusetts: Likely R
Michigan: Lean D
Minnesota: Likely D
Nebraska: Likely R
Nevada: Tossup
New Hampshire: Lean R
New Mexico: Likely D
New York: Safe D
Ohio: Lean R
Oklahoma: Likely R
Oregon: Safe D
Pennsylvania: Likely D
Rhode Island: Lean D
South Carolina: Safe R
South Dakota: Safe R
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Safe R
Vermont: Likely R
Wisconsin: Tossup
Wyoming: Safe R

[Dr. MB]

Safe D: CA, DC, HI, NY
Likely D: NM, OR, PA
Lean D: CO, IL, MN
Tossup: AK, CT, FL, ME, MI, NV, OH, RI, WI
Out of these, Tilt D: CT, RI, WI
Tilt R: OH
Pure Tossup: FL, MI, NV
Wild cards: AK, ME (due to independent presence)
Lean R: AZ, GA, IA, NH, MD
Likely R: KS, MA, NE, OK, VT
Safe R: AL, AR, ID, SD, TN, TX, WY

[PAK Man]

My ratings:

Alabama - Safe R
Alaska - Tossup
Arizona - Likely R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Leans D
Connecticut - Tossup
Florida - Tossup
Georgia - Likely R
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Tossup
Iowa - Leans R
Kansas - Leans R
Maine - Tossup
Maryland - Leans R
Massachusetts - Likely R
Michigan - Tossup
Minnesota - Leans D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Tossup
New Hampshire - Leans D
New Mexico - Leans D (D+1)
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Leans R
Oklahoma - Likely R
Oregon - Likely D
Pennsylvania - Leans D
Rhode Island - Tossup
South Carolina - Safe R
South Dakota - Safe R
Tennessee - Likely R
Texas - Safe R
Vermont - Likely R
Wisconsin - Leans R
Wyoming - Safe R

[smoltchanov]

^ Obviously - very cautious ratings. But for now i use almost identical ones (may be - only Illinois, with all Rauner's problems, is Lean D in my book, but even here Pritzker doesn't impress me at all). IMHO - real ratings may be made only AFTER primaries, and preferrably - no more then a month before election (i frequently mention an example of 2014, where a month (or, may be, month and a half) before rather disastrous election, Democrats on DKE and other sites were rather bullish about results).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems should have at least 20 seats

Tilt Democratic IL, NM, ME, CO, PA, MI, CT, AK

Tossup States will get them to 25: MD, NV, OH, NH, WI, NEB, KS, AZ

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Dems should have at least 20 seats

Tilt Democratic IL, NM, ME, CO, PA, MI, CT, AK

Tossup States will get them to 25: MD, NV, OH, NH, WI, NEB, KS, AZ

Oklahoma should be Lean R at this point and Iowa should be a toss-up.