2018 Gubernatorial Rankings

[Xing]

It's interesting how post-2016, your predictions have generally been much more D-friendly than mine I'm curious why you believe CT is Likely D while RI is a Toss-Up. While I do think Raimondo is potentially vulnerable, Malloy is much more unpopular, and will probably drag down the Democratic candidate to an extent.

I fail to see what exactly is Democratic-friendly about my prediction. If anything, you could argue that I’m being too generous to Republicans in MI, ME and FL.

As for CT, I’ll believe it when I see it. I’m not buying that Republicans have a strong enough candidate here who could win in what will be a D tidal wave in CT, a state that is ground zero for Trump backlash. I’m not saying Raimondo will lose or that Fung has an easy path to victory, but I wouldn’t be that surprised if he won. Unlike Malloy, she will be on the ballot this fall and she’s already in a tie with him in the polls, which is not a good position to be in for an incumbent running in a deep blue state in a D wave year (although the undecideds could certainly break heavily for Raimondo).

I just meant more D friendly than my prediction, since only your ratings in KS, ME, and RI are more Republican-friendly, but you're more generous to Democrats in several states.

I could see Malloy's popularity (or lack thereof) being a bigger factor in the gubernatorial race than Trump's popularity (again, lack thereof might be a better way of putting it), and while the national environment could save the Democrats here, I'm not sure why you consider CT ground zero for a Trump backlash. It doesn't seem as strongly anti-Trump as some other blue states, nor is it a state where Trump has the potential to lose a lot of support from 2016 (I'd say RI fits that bill pretty well.) While Fung is already close in the polls, he's pretty well known in the state, so I'm not sure he has nearly as much room to climb as a lesser-known candidate might.

[mcmikk]

My ratings:

My actual prediction:

[ctrepublican512]

It's interesting how post-2016, your predictions have generally been much more D-friendly than mine I'm curious why you believe CT is Likely D while RI is a Toss-Up. While I do think Raimondo is potentially vulnerable, Malloy is much more unpopular, and will probably drag down the Democratic candidate to an extent.

I fail to see what exactly is Democratic-friendly about my prediction. If anything, you could argue that I’m being too generous to Republicans in MI, ME and FL.

As for CT, I’ll believe it when I see it. I’m not buying that Republicans have a strong enough candidate here who could win in what will be a D tidal wave in CT, a state that is ground zero for Trump backlash. I’m not saying Raimondo will lose or that Fung has an easy path to victory, but I wouldn’t be that surprised if he won. Unlike Malloy, she will be on the ballot this fall and she’s already in a tie with him in the polls, which is not a good position to be in for an incumbent running in a deep blue state in a D wave year (although the undecideds could certainly break heavily for Raimondo).

I just meant more D friendly than my prediction, since only your ratings in KS, ME, and RI are more Republican-friendly, but you're more generous to Democrats in several states.

I could see Malloy's popularity (or lack thereof) being a bigger factor in the gubernatorial race than Trump's popularity (again, lack thereof might be a better way of putting it), and while the national environment could save the Democrats here, I'm not sure why you consider CT ground zero for a Trump backlash. It doesn't seem as strongly anti-Trump as some other blue states, nor is it a state where Trump has the potential to lose a lot of support from 2016 (I'd say RI fits that bill pretty well.) While Fung is already close in the polls, he's pretty well known in the state, so I'm not sure he has nearly as much room to climb as a lesser-known candidate might.

You are very mistaken regarding the gubernatorial in CT. There was a poll that came out earlier in the year and had Malloy 12% more unpopular than Trump. You keep mentioning that CT is an ideal place for Dems and their enthusiasm to translate to big wins, but take these two things into consideration: (1) I would argue that that enthusiasm is not as pronounced as in a Red state since CT voters have no Republican incumbents to vote out of office at the statewide or federal levels; and (2) CT gubernatorial elections are so localized, most people are zoned out of the national movements are are focused on this race. Additionally, I would argue that even though Dems are enthused, Republicans in Connecticut are as much or even more enthused considering our narrow losses in 2010/2014, our momentum in picking up dozens of state legislative seats, and Malloy's/Dem legislature's unpopularity (i.e., state budget, new tax increases, etc).

Don't forget that before our current Democratic is the first in two decades. One last thing. The current political climate has striking parallels to 2006, an overwhelmingly Dem year. However, the Republican governor, who was for the first time running on her own after a huge corruption scandal, won 63% of the vote. Really makes you think that the Dems are not in a strong position whatsoever.

[choclatechip45]

It's interesting how post-2016, your predictions have generally been much more D-friendly than mine I'm curious why you believe CT is Likely D while RI is a Toss-Up. While I do think Raimondo is potentially vulnerable, Malloy is much more unpopular, and will probably drag down the Democratic candidate to an extent.

I fail to see what exactly is Democratic-friendly about my prediction. If anything, you could argue that I’m being too generous to Republicans in MI, ME and FL.

As for CT, I’ll believe it when I see it. I’m not buying that Republicans have a strong enough candidate here who could win in what will be a D tidal wave in CT, a state that is ground zero for Trump backlash. I’m not saying Raimondo will lose or that Fung has an easy path to victory, but I wouldn’t be that surprised if he won. Unlike Malloy, she will be on the ballot this fall and she’s already in a tie with him in the polls, which is not a good position to be in for an incumbent running in a deep blue state in a D wave year (although the undecideds could certainly break heavily for Raimondo).

I just meant more D friendly than my prediction, since only your ratings in KS, ME, and RI are more Republican-friendly, but you're more generous to Democrats in several states.

I could see Malloy's popularity (or lack thereof) being a bigger factor in the gubernatorial race than Trump's popularity (again, lack thereof might be a better way of putting it), and while the national environment could save the Democrats here, I'm not sure why you consider CT ground zero for a Trump backlash. It doesn't seem as strongly anti-Trump as some other blue states, nor is it a state where Trump has the potential to lose a lot of support from 2016 (I'd say RI fits that bill pretty well.) While Fung is already close in the polls, he's pretty well known in the state, so I'm not sure he has nearly as much room to climb as a lesser-known candidate might.

You are very mistaken regarding the gubernatorial in CT. There was a poll that came out earlier in the year and had Malloy 12% more unpopular than Trump. You keep mentioning that CT is an ideal place for Dems and their enthusiasm to translate to big wins, but take these two things into consideration: (1) I would argue that that enthusiasm is not as pronounced as in a Red state since CT voters have no Republican incumbents to vote out of office at the statewide or federal levels; and (2) CT gubernatorial elections are so localized, most people are zoned out of the national movements are are focused on this race. Additionally, I would argue that even though Dems are enthused, Republicans in Connecticut are as much or even more enthused considering our narrow losses in 2010/2014, our momentum in picking up dozens of state legislative seats, and Malloy's/Dem legislature's unpopularity (i.e., state budget, new tax increases, etc).

Don't forget that before our current Democratic is the first in two decades. One last thing. The current political climate has striking parallels to 2006, an overwhelmingly Dem year. However, the Republican governor, who was for the first time running on her own after a huge corruption scandal, won 63% of the vote. Really makes you think that the Dems are not in a strong position whatsoever.

Republicans just lost a state house seat that they held for 44 years. Foley won Stratford in 2014. If it was a referendum on Malloy they wouldn't have lost it! Dem energy is a lot higher in CT right now than Republican energy.  Again Rell had an incumbent advantage she wasn't a placeholder none of the republican candidates are currently governor.

[ctrepublican512]

They did lose a house seat, by less than 80 votes. The Republican nominee was in his 70's, the Stratford RTC barely had a campaign operation, and the CT all-Dem Congressional delegation helped with the GOTV. If the Republicans put in the work they would have won. Really strongly disagree that Dem energy is higher. Misguided to say otherwise.

[choclatechip45]

They did lose a house seat, by less than 80 votes. The Republican nominee was in his 70's, the Stratford RTC barely had a campaign operation, and the CT all-Dem Congressional delegation helped with the GOTV. If the Republicans put in the work they would have won. Really strongly disagree that Dem energy is higher. Misguided to say otherwise.

The RTC had no campaign operation because there is no energy on the republican side. Democrats won because they had more volunteers and more grassroots energy. You also think the dems have no chance at the governorship which is false. Republicans said the same thing in 2014 and how did that work out? The CT all-Dem Congressional delegation will be campaigning for whomever wins the nomination for governor and so will Murphy and Blumenthal. The Republicans are not putting any serious challengers in those races. The guy they have challenging Murphy  former chief strategist is Carl Higbie who was to racist for the trump administration.

[libertpaulian]

My Ranks:

Alabama - Safe R with Cobb, Likely R with Maddox
Alaska - Tossup
Arizona - Likely R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Titanium D with Newsom as the Dem nominee, Safe D with any of the other Dems
Colorado - Lean D
Connecticut - Tossup
Florida - Tossup with Putnam, Tilt D with DeSantis
Georgia - Likely R
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Lean D
Iowa - Lean R
Kansas - Lean R
Maine - Tossup to Tilt D
Maryland - Lean R
Massachusetts - Likely R
Michigan - Tilt D
Minnesota - Lean D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Tossup
New Hampshire - Tossup
New Mexico - Lean D
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Lean R
Oklahoma - Likely R
Oregon - Likely D
Pennsylvania - Likely D
Rhode Island - Lean D
South Carolina - Safe R
South Dakota - Safe R
Tennessee - Likely R
Texas - Titanium R.  Abbott is a masterful campaigner.
Vermont - Likely R
Wisconsin - Tossup
Wyoming - Safe R

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Due to the weak Republican field, Pennsylvania moves from Lean D to Likely D.


Safe D (2): OR, HI
Likely D (6): CA, NY, CT, RI, IL (D+1), PA
Lean D (5): CO, MN, MI (D+2), ME (D+3), NM (D+4)
Toss-Up (7): NV, IA, WI, OH, NH, FL, AK
Lean R (4) : GA, MD, VT, KS
Likely R (6): MA, SC, TN, SD, OK, AZ
Safe R (6): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

How exactly are CA and NY “Likely” D, Wulfric?

I assume he's cautious because it's possible the Democratic version of Roy Moore could somehow win the primary in one of those states... otherwise both are obviously Safe D.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

How exactly are CA and NY “Likely” D, Wulfric?

With CA I'm extremely cautious because of the top-two, and with NY, Republicans actually have a notable candidate in State Senate Deputy Majority Leader John A. DeFransico.

[fluffypanther19]

My Ranks:

Alabama - Safe R with Cobb, Likely R with Maddox
Alaska - Tossup
Arizona - Likely R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Titanium D with Newsom as the Dem nominee, Safe D with any of the other Dems
Colorado - Lean D
Connecticut - Tossup
Florida - Tossup
Georgia - Likely R
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Lean D
Iowa - Lean R
Kansas - Lean R
Maine - Tilt D
Maryland - Lean R
Massachusetts - Likely R
Michigan - Lean D
Minnesota - Lean D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Tossup
New Hampshire - Tossup
New Mexico - Lean D
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Lean R
Oklahoma - Likely R
Oregon - Likely D
Pennsylvania - Likely D
Rhode Island - Lean D
South Carolina - Safe R
South Dakota - Safe R
Tennessee - Likely R
Texas - Titanium R.  Abbott is a masterful campaigner.
Vermont - Likely R
Wisconsin - Tossup
Wyoming - Safe R

made a couple of tweaks

[MT Treasurer]

How exactly are CA and NY “Likely” D, Wulfric?

With CA I'm extremely cautious because of the top-two, and with NY, Republicans actually have a notable candidate in State Senate Deputy Majority Leader John A. DeFransico.

R vs. R in CA has zero chance of happening, and DeFrancisco is trailing Cuomo by 29 points in the Siena poll released two weeks ago. Also not sure why you think he’s a notable candidate, he’s only leading his opponent in the R primary by 4 (getting 21%) and 49% are still undecided.

[ctrepublican512]

My Ranks:

Alabama - Safe R
Alaska - Tossup
Arizona - Likely R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Lean D
Connecticut - Tossup
Florida - Tossup
Georgia - Likely R
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Lean D
Iowa - Lean R
Kansas - Lean R
Maine - Lean D
Maryland - Likely R
Massachusetts - Likely R
Michigan - Tossup
Minnesota - Tossup
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Lean R
New Hampshire - Likely R
New Mexico - Lean D
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Likely R
Oklahoma - Likely R
Oregon - Lean D
Pennsylvania - Likely D
Rhode Island - Tossup
South Carolina - Safe R
South Dakota - Safe R
Tennessee - Likely R
Texas - Safe R
Vermont - Likely R
Wisconsin - Tossup
Wyoming - Safe R

[Atlas Force]

Alabama - Likely R
Alaska - Tossup
Arizona - Likely R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Lean D
Connecticut - Lean D
Florida - Tossup
Georgia - Lean R
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Lean D
Iowa - Tossup
Kansas - Lean R
Maine - Lean D
Maryland - Tossup
Massachusetts - Likely R
Michigan - Tossup
Minnesota - Lean D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Lean D
New Hampshire - Tossup
New Mexico - Likely D
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Lean R
Oklahoma - Lean R
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Likely D
Rhode Island - Lean D
South Carolina - Safe R
South Dakota - Safe R
Tennessee - Likely R
Texas - Safe R
Vermont - Likely R
Wisconsin - Tossup
Wyoming - Safe R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[Politician]

Safe D: CA, HI, NY, OR
Likely D: IL, MN, NM, PA
Lean D: CO, ME, MI, RI
Tossup: AZ, CT, FL, KS, MD, NV, NH, OH, WI
Lean R: AK, GA, IA, OK, VT
Likely R: MA, NE, SC, TN
Safe R: AL, AR, ID, SD, TX, WY

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

In the aftermath of the court disaster, Walker is favored to lose.

Safe D (2): OR, HI
Likely D (6): CA, NY, CT, RI, IL (D+1), PA
Lean D (6): CO, MN, MI (D+2), ME (D+3), NM (D+4), WI (D+5)
Toss-Up (6): NV, IA, OH, NH, FL, AK
Lean R (4) : GA, MD, VT, KS
Likely R (6): MA, SC, TN, SD, OK, AZ
Safe R (6): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D+5-8  seats

[LabourJersey]

Something along these lines--Democrats pick up 8-9 seats

[KingSweden]

Update:

Ohio, Iowa and Kansas as Tossups seems a bit too bullish, as does WI as anything other than Tossup

[Tartarus Sauce]

Update:

Ohio, Iowa and Kansas as Tossups seems a bit too bullish, as does WI as anything other than Tossup

Kansas is really only tossup by virtue of Orman being in the race and not knowing who the Democratic nominee is yet. Coyler has the Brownback stench on him and Kobach is an absolute joke. Svaty in particular strikes me as somebody that would make the race Lean D by default, though that would require him to actually win the primary which I'd wager he's an underdog in. Either Kelly or Brewer could win in the general as well though. Ohio could probably be rated as a tossup once we know that Cordray has secured the nomination. DeWine is a strong candidate, but so is Cordray. Kucinich would be an absolute disaster for the Democrats on the other hand. I agree that Iowa should be Lean R as of right now.

Walker is definitely on shaky ground given the series of election losses the state GOP has suffered lately and he only has middling approval ratings. Tossup is definitely a fair rating given what the current political environment is looking like there right now, and Evers winning the nomination would probably make the race Lean D.

His most bullish prediction in my opinion is actually making Arizona a tossup. While Ducey is definitely not a lock to win reelection considering the imment trainwreck the state party is facing in November, AZ is not at tossup territory for the governship yet, and probably not even a lean yet. I'd rate it at Likely R until further developments.

[Orser67]

Safe D- HI, CA, NY
Very Likely D- RI, OR
Likely D- CT, PA, IL, NM
Lean D- CO, MN, MI, NV, ME, FL
Toss-Up- WI, OH, MD, NH
Lean R- AZ, IA, KS, VT, MA
Likely R- SC, SD, GA, OK, TN
Very Likely R- TX, AL
Safe R- ID, WY, NE, AR

Lean I - AK

[Sestak]

Similar to the Senate, I'm going to start doing weekly Governor ratings as well.

Rating changes I'd have made over the past few weeks:

Move NV to Likely D. The Polls show Sisolak outperforming Rosen, and all the specials we've seen have reinforced that Democratic enthusiasm is very strong across the country.
Move AZ to Lean R. AZ-08 results indicate that Ducey could be in some trouble.
Move WI to Tossup. Dallet's resounding win shows Walker is indeed quite vulnerable.
Move KS to Lean R. Colyer seems to be doing stronger than expected relative to Kobach, and would likely perform better in a general. Also Orman doesn't look like he's leaving.
Move MN to Lean D. Just a precaution here. I don't think Pawlenty will win but he does have a better shot than the previous field.
Move NY to Likely D. There is now a nonzero chance that Cuomo loses the primary to Nixon, runs on the Independent line out of spite, and ends up splitting the center-left and handing it to a Republican.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Based on recent polling data, NH moves from Toss-Up to Lean R, and MD moves from Lean R to Likely R. This is not to suggest that Dems should triage either race, it merely indicates that they need to step up their game.

Safe D (2): OR, HI
Likely D (6): CA, NY, CT, RI, IL (D+1), PA
Lean D (6): CO, MN, MI (D+2), ME (D+3), NM (D+4), WI (D+5)
Toss-Up (5): NV, IA, OH, FL, AK
Lean R (4) : GA, VT, KS, NH
Likely R (7): MA, SC, TN, SD, OK, AZ, MD
Safe R (6): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL

[Atlas Force]

Alabama - Likely R
Alaska - Tossup
Arizona - Lean R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Lean D
Connecticut - Lean D
Florida - Tossup
Georgia - Lean R
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Lean D
Iowa - Tossup
Kansas - Lean R
Maine - Lean D
Maryland - Tossup
Massachusetts - Likely R
Michigan - Lean D
Minnesota - Lean D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Lean D
New Hampshire - Tossup
New Mexico - Likely D
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Lean R
Oklahoma - Lean R
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Likely D
Rhode Island - Lean D
South Carolina - Safe R
South Dakota - Safe R
Tennessee - Likely R
Texas - Safe R
Vermont - Likely R
Wisconsin - Lean D
Wyoming - Likely R