2018 Senate Rankings

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm going to start pulling more races away from toss-up and toward the poles as we get closer to election day. I want to define what each category means to be clear that I'm not as confident as this map may portray. With that said, the following changes...

ND: Lean R --> Likely R
WV: Lean D --> Likely D
FL: Toss-Up --> Lean D

(IA = MN-S) (AL = MS-S)

>30% = Tilt
>50% = Lean
>70% = Likely
>90% = Safe

Republicans: 51 ✔
Democrats: 49

Safe: The party/candidate is all but guaranteed to win re-election.
Likely: The party/candidate is overwhelmingly likely to win, though the opposition could still pull off an upset if everything goes right.
Lean: The party/candidate has a notable advantage to win but the race is still competitive and the opposition has a decent chance to win.
Tilt: Basically a toss-up, just choosing the party/candidate that I think has the higher chance of winning at the moment.

[Politician]

Changes:
Indiana: Lean D->Tossup

[MT Treasurer]

^Not that bad, but calling ND a Likely R race is overreaction. I also think TN is still a Toss-up.

[Politician]

^Not that bad, but calling ND a Likely R race is overreaction. I also think TN is still a Toss-up.

I'm not one to be optimistic about either race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

tilt D WV, IN, MT, NV, AZ and MN b
Tossup MSb, TN, and TX
Tilt R MO and ND

[The Vorlon]

[NEW JERSEY FOR MENENDEZ]

New Jersey
Lean D -> Tossup

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

New Jersey
Lean D -> Tossup

Lol

[NEW JERSEY FOR MENENDEZ]

New Jersey
Lean D -> Tossup

Lol

Hugin did well in the debate. Menendez really began to fall apart at the end.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

New Jersey
Lean D -> Tossup

Lol

Hugin did well in the debate. Menendez really began to fall apart at the end.

Unless someone messed up to Roy Moore proportions, word of the debate will be quite limited.

[NEW JERSEY FOR MENENDEZ]

New Jersey
Lean D -> Tossup

Lol

Hugin did well in the debate. Menendez really began to fall apart at the end.

Unless someone messed up to Roy Moore proportions, word of the debate will be quite limited.

You just don't understand New Jersey.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

New Jersey
Lean D -> Tossup

Lol

Hugin did well in the debate. Menendez really began to fall apart at the end.

Unless someone messed up to Roy Moore proportions, word of the debate will be quite limited.

You just don't understand New Jersey.

The guy can’t even lead in his own internals, if you have it as a tossup but gun to head Menendez eeking out, fine. But if gun to head you actually think Hugin wins, don’t hold your breath for the next 13 days.

[NEW JERSEY FOR MENENDEZ]

New Jersey
Lean D -> Tossup

Lol

Hugin did well in the debate. Menendez really began to fall apart at the end.

Unless someone messed up to Roy Moore proportions, word of the debate will be quite limited.

You just don't understand New Jersey.

The guy can’t even lead in his own internals, if you have it as a tossup but gun to head Menendez eeking out, fine. But if gun to head you actually think Hugin wins, don’t hold your breath for the next 13 days.

Hugin winning isn't out of the question...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

New Jersey
Lean D -> Tossup

Lol

Hugin did well in the debate. Menendez really began to fall apart at the end.

Unless someone messed up to Roy Moore proportions, word of the debate will be quite limited.

You just don't understand New Jersey.

The guy can’t even lead in his own internals, if you have it as a tossup but gun to head Menendez eeking out, fine. But if gun to head you actually think Hugin wins, don’t hold your breath for the next 13 days.

Hugin winning isn't out of the question...

Well no, but from the looks of it even you are in gun to head deciding Menendez will will it, unless you just changed your mind to Hugin.

[Calthrina950]

New Jersey
Lean D -> Tossup

Lol

Hugin did well in the debate. Menendez really began to fall apart at the end.

Unless someone messed up to Roy Moore proportions, word of the debate will be quite limited.

You just don't understand New Jersey.

The guy can’t even lead in his own internals, if you have it as a tossup but gun to head Menendez eeking out, fine. But if gun to head you actually think Hugin wins, don’t hold your breath for the next 13 days.

Hugin winning isn't out of the question...

I have to agree with Bagel here. While Hugin definitely has a chance (probably 30% or so) of winning, I don't think it will happen, given the national environment and given that Democrats seem poised to demolish the Republican congressional delegation in New Jersey. I do believe that he will come within single digits, though.

[Confused Democrat]

Prediction:



Confidence:



Confidence of each vulnerable incumbent winning (vulnerable incumbent = lean and toss-up races):

Tester > Cruz > Nelson >Donnelly > McCaskill > Heller > Heitkamp

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TN is a tossup

[DaWN]

CHANGES
Florida: Tossup -> Lean D
Ohio: Likely D -> Safe D
Wisconsin: Likely D -> Safe D

MN Special: Safe D
MS Special: Likely R

Between now and election day I might end up shaking off the feeling of upset potential in TX, but otherwise I think this is as low as I'm going to get with tossups.

[NEW JERSEY FOR MENENDEZ]

Changes
Tennessee: Lean R -> Tossup
Texas: Likely R -> Lean R

[Kodak]

Updated polls:



I don't buy some of these results. Heitkamp isn't losing by 10+ points, Stabenow will not do worse than Menendez, and Smith is probably not going to do 10 points worse than Klobuchar.

Nevada and Indiana look reasonable, but I have doubts about Heller and Braun's chances as well.

[CookieDamage]

New Jersey
Lean D -> Tossup

Lol

Hugin did well in the debate. Menendez really began to fall apart at the end.

Unless someone messed up to Roy Moore proportions, word of the debate will be quite limited.

You just don't understand New Jersey.

And you clearly don't either. Living in a state doesn't grant you that understanding but you clearly don't care.

[NEW JERSEY FOR MENENDEZ]

New Jersey
Lean D -> Tossup

Lol

Hugin did well in the debate. Menendez really began to fall apart at the end.

Unless someone messed up to Roy Moore proportions, word of the debate will be quite limited.

You just don't understand New Jersey.

And you clearly don't either. Living in a state doesn't grant you that understanding but you clearly don't care.

You live in the crap part (Essex) of NJ, I've lived in the good part (Bergen) of NJ.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

[DaWN]

Between now and election day I might end up shaking off the feeling of upset potential in TX, but otherwise I think this is as low as I'm going to get with tossups.

CHANGE
Texas: Tossup -> Lean R

I have shaken off the feeling of upset potential in TX.

These will be my final ratings heading into next Tuesday barring a late shock in any race.

[DabbingSanta]

Prediction:



Confidence:



Lean R:
Tennessee
Texas

Tossup:
Missouri
Nevada
Indiana
Arizona
Florida

Lean D:
Montana
Michigan
New Jersey
Wisconsin
West Virginia